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Asia open: US stock futures retreated ahead of Juneteenth holiday, US dollar remains firm
Global markets are adjusting to a new post-conflict reality as the Strait of Hormuz officially reopens following the US-Iran peace agreement. Oil prices have plunged to multi-month lows, removing much of the geopolitical inflation premium that dominated markets earlier this year. Meanwhile, the US dollar remains firmly supported by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, while equities balance improving risk sentiment against higher-for-longer interest rates.
by Kelvin Wong
Asia open: Wall Street slumps as Kevin Warsh delivers hawkish hold, GBP/USD’s plunge hits support ahead of BoE
Global markets reacted sharply after the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish hold at its June 2026 FOMC meeting. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh kept interest rates unchanged but surprised investors by removing traditional forward guidance and signalling a stronger data-dependent policy framework. The shift triggered a selloff in US equities, boosted the US dollar, pressured gold prices, and reinforced expectations that the Fed could still raise interest rates before the end of 2026.
by Kelvin Wong
FOMC trading playbook: How a hawkish Fed could impact Nasdaq 100, Gold, EUR/USD and AUD/USD
The June 2026 FOMC meeting could become one of the most important policy events of the year. While markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, traders are focused on the dot plot, updated economic projections, and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first press conference. With futures now pricing a 77% chance of a rate hike by December, a hawkish shift could strengthen the US dollar and pressure gold, the Nasdaq 100, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD.
by Kelvin Wong
Asia open: S&P 500 rally pauses before Fed, Nikkei 225 eyeing 70,000, crude oil plunges to 3-month low
Global markets paused ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June policy decision as investors await the debut of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The S&P 500 retreated while the Nasdaq 100 fell nearly 2% amid semiconductor weakness. Meanwhile, crude oil plunged to a three-month low as a US-Iran peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz moved closer to reality. The Dow Jones hit a record high as investors rotated from technology stocks into financials and industrials.
by Kelvin Wong
Asia open: Hang Seng underperforms on weak China’s retail sales, USD/JPY firmed above 159.75 after BoJ
Global markets rallied after the US and Iran agreed to a 60-day ceasefire framework and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Nasdaq 100 surged 3%, the Dow Jones hit a record high, and crude oil plunged below US$85 per barrel as geopolitical risk premiums evaporated. Investors rotated back into technology stocks amid renewed optimism over AI infrastructure spending, while attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
by Kelvin Wong
Risk-on “TACO” redux: Intraday outlook on Nasdaq 100, DJIA, AUD/USD and Gold
Global markets have surged after the US and Iran announced an interim agreement to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 3% while risk-sensitive assets rallied sharply on renewed optimism. Traders remain cautious as no official agreement text has been released, sanctions details remain unclear, and geopolitical risks involving Israel continue to threaten the fragile peace process. Key technical levels across Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, AUD/USD, and Gold in focus.
by Kelvin Wong
Chart alert: SpaceX to the moon or to the ground? Watch 187.60 and 161.00.
SpaceX begins trading on Nasdaq in the largest IPO ever, raising US$75 billion and achieving a valuation near US$1.8 trillion. While investor demand remains exceptionally strong, technical signals from the SPCX/USDT grey market suggest caution. The pre-IPO perpetual contract remains trapped in a descending channel, highlighting the risk of further downside unless bulls reclaim the key US$187.60 resistance level. Traders are closely watching whether SpaceX becomes a major driver of Nasdaq 100 per
by Kelvin Wong
Asia open: Wall Street surges as Trump signals a breakthrough peace deal with Iran
Global markets rallied sharply after President Trump signalled a potential breakthrough US-Iran peace deal, easing fears of a prolonged energy shock. WTI crude oil plunged 6%, driving a broad relief rally across equities, bonds, and currencies. Semiconductor stocks surged nearly 8% as investors renewed confidence in the AI infrastructure boom, while SpaceX’s record-breaking US$75 billion listing demonstrated robust liquidity and appetite for technology investments.
by Kelvin Wong
Asia open: Trump’s Iran strike threat and tech rout spark stagflation
Global markets turned sharply risk-off as President Trump’s threat of hard strikes on Iran sent WTI crude back above US$90 and revived stagflation fears. Hot US CPI data reinforced expectations of a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve stance, pressuring equities, bonds, and precious metals. Technology stocks led losses as stretched AI valuations and mega-IPO liquidity concerns weighed on sentiment, while Asia Pacific markets opened broadly lower amid renewed currency stress.
by Kelvin Wong
Chart alert: USD/JPY advances toward the next 161.60/95 key intervention levels
USD/JPY remains on a bullish footing as widening US-Japan yield spreads reinforce demand for the US dollar ahead of key US inflation data and the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting. Markets are increasingly pricing a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, while the BOJ is expected to raise rates but potentially slow its bond tapering programme. Technically, USD/JPY continues to trend higher toward the critical intervention zone near 160.65, where Japanese authorities may step in again.
by Kelvin Wong
Asia open: Tech rout and geopolitical volatility ignite risk-off
Global markets turned risk-off as technology stocks extended their recent correction, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran resurfaced, and investors prepared for key US inflation data. Semiconductor shares remained volatile amid concerns over AI valuations and liquidity pressures from upcoming mega-IPOs such as SpaceX and OpenAI. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia surprised markets with an emergency rate hike, while the Bank of Japan signalled flexibility on bond market support.
by Kelvin Wong
Chart alert: SPX 500 weak market breadth and Fed rate hike fears signal further downside risk
The S&P 500 is showing signs of increasing vulnerability as weak market breadth, rising Treasury yields, and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes weigh on investor sentiment. Despite a strong rebound in semiconductor stocks, only a handful of sectors participated in the recovery. Technical indicators, including a bearish divergence in the NYSE Advance/Decline line and resistance at the 20-day moving average, suggest further downside risks for US equities in the near term.
by Kelvin Wong
Asia open: Dip buyers spark tech rebound on weak market breadth
Global markets rebounded as dip buyers returned aggressively to semiconductor and AI-related stocks, driving the Nasdaq 100 higher despite weak market breadth. A temporary Israel-Iran ceasefire helped contain oil prices and ease geopolitical concerns, while Treasury yields remained elevated amid expectations of a prolonged higher-rate environment. Investors are also preparing for the record-breaking SpaceX IPO, which could reshape liquidity flows across global equity markets.
by Kelvin Wong
Asia open: Tech rout deepens and Middle East tensions fuel market tremors
Global markets entered a risk-off phase amid a deep technology selloff, escalating Middle East tensions, and stronger-than-expected US employment data. Semiconductor stocks led losses amid growing concerns over AI valuations, while rising oil prices following Iran-Israel hostilities revived inflation fears. Meanwhile, robust US payrolls data reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, pushing Treasury yields and the US dollar higher while pressuring global equities.
by Kelvin Wong
Chart alert: EUR/USD finds support as ECB hawkishness offsets Fed strength ahead of NFP
EUR/USD is showing resilience ahead of the closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls report as investors weigh diverging economic growth trends against converging central bank hawkishness. While the US labour market remains stable enough to support a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve stance, the ECB is expected to continue tightening policy amid persistent inflation. Technical analysis suggests EUR/USD is building a potential base above key support levels, supporting a near-term bullish outlook.
by Kelvin Wong
Asia open: AI Rally stalls on Broadcom miss, while ‘Sell Indonesia’ sweeps markets
Global markets turned mixed as the AI rally stumbled following Broadcom’s weaker-than-expected outlook, triggering a sharp selloff in technology shares. While the Nasdaq and the semiconductor sector came under pressure, the Dow Jones surged to a record high as falling oil prices eased inflation concerns. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s financial markets extended their sharp decline amid growing investor concerns over policy intervention, highlighting broader risks facing emerging markets across Asia.
by Kelvin Wong
Chart alert: Dow Jones (DJIA) under pressure, medium-term uptrend at risk
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is showing signs of technical deterioration after underperforming other major US equity indices throughout the current bull cycle. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, higher Treasury yields, and a bear-flattening yield curve are tightening financial conditions and weighing on cyclical sectors. Technical indicators, including a breakdown below ascending channel support and bearish RSI divergence, suggest near-term downside risks remain elevated.
by Kelvin Wong
Asia open: Middle East tensions drive oil higher as S&P 500 snaps winning streak
Global markets retreated as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions disrupted ceasefire hopes and pushed oil prices higher. The S&P 500 snapped a nine-day winning streak while technology shares came under pressure after Broadcom issued weaker-than-expected AI growth guidance. Meanwhile, rising energy costs, strong labour markets, and persistent inflation reinforced expectations of further monetary tightening from major central banks, weighing on investor sentiment worldwide.
by Kelvin Wong
Chart alert: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) potential near-term bullish reversal emerging from the sub-$70K plunge
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has suffered a sharp 16% correction after MicroStrategy’s unexpected sale of part of its Bitcoin holdings triggered a breakdown in market sentiment and accelerated ETF outflows. However, technical and on-chain indicators are now pointing toward potential selling exhaustion. Oversold RSI conditions, elevated long liquidations, and continued accumulation by long-term holders suggest Bitcoin may be nearing a bullish reversal if it can maintain support above US$62,250.
by Kelvin Wong
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