Top News and Analysis

Geopolitics, inflation and central banks set the direction for markets

Middle East tensions and energy prices remain central to the market outlook. The US economy is supported by AI investment, while China faces weak domestic demand. Inflation may keep the Fed and ECB cautious. Bond yields could ease temporarily if energy prices fall, while longer-term fiscal pressures remain. Political risks may gradually weigh on the dollar.

25-09-2026 15:20 GMT by Łukasz Zembik

Trump-Xi summit: five issues to watch and the trading playbook

The 24 September Trump–Xi meeting could set the next direction for global risk sentiment as markets await an extension of the US–China trade truce, targeted tariff cuts and agricultural purchases. This trading playbook highlights five assets most exposed to the outcome: USD/CNH, Hang Seng Tech, AUD/USD, the Nasdaq 100, and Singapore’s STI, and explains how traders can position for a deal, disappointment, or a sell-the-fact reversal.

22-09-2026 10:18 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Chart alert: USD/JPY tests 156.13/50 resistance as hawkish Fed raises the bar for BoJ

USD/JPY has surged towards the key 156.13/50 resistance zone after a hawkish Fed rate hike reinforced the US dollar's yield advantage. Attention now turns to Japan CPI and the BoJ, where an expected hike to 1.25% may not be enough to strengthen the yen unless Governor Ueda signals further tightening. Technically, bearish RSI divergence raises reversal risk, with 155.45 acting as the key downside trigger.

17-09-2026 09:32 GMT by Kelvin Wong

United Kingdom: The Bank of England faces a difficult choice

UK inflation accelerated to 2.9% in August, while core and services inflation remained stable. The data support keeping interest rates unchanged tomorrow but do not eliminate the risk of future tightening. With wage growth slowing and the labour market weakening, the four rate hikes currently priced in by markets still appear too aggressive.

16-09-2026 13:40 GMT by Łukasz Zembik

Fed is moving closer to a september rate hike

The Federal Reserve is moving closer to a September rate hike as inflation remains elevated, oil prices rise and the U.S. economy stays strong.

11-09-2026 20:30 GMT by Krzysztof Kamiński

Chart alert: EUR/USD minor uptrend intact ahead of ECB as markets brace for 25bp rate hike

EUR/USD holds near a two-week high around 1.1640 ahead of the ECB monetary policy decision, with markets expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike to 2.50%. Attention is on Christine Lagarde's guidance as surging energy prices revive inflation risks and raise the possibility of further tightening. Technically, EUR/USD has moved back above its 200-day MA, with 1.1604 acting as the key short-term support.

10-09-2026 10:25 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Yen’s Appreciation Potential May Be Running Out

The yen’s medium-term outlook remains constructive, but much of the expected Bank of Japan tightening may already be priced in. With weak consumption limiting the scope for aggressive rate hikes, USD/JPY may consolidate near 155 unless the BoJ or Japan’s GPIF provides a fresh catalyst.

04-09-2026 13:29 GMT by Łukasz Zembik

Chart alert: USD/JPY major bearish reversal below 200-day MA

USD/JPY has staged a major bearish reversal, breaking below its 200-day moving average as the Japanese yen strengthens sharply. Support from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for Japanese action, hawkish BoJ commentary and renewed FX intervention risk have reinforced the move. USD/JPY may see an oversold bounce, but failure to reclaim 158.04/50 could expose 155.03 and 153.84 as the next downside targets.

03-09-2026 10:42 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Gold awaits Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech

Gold is undergoing a shallow correction ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. A neutral stance on easing financial conditions could support another test of USD 4,775 and USD 4,890 per ounce. A hawkish message, however, could revive expectations of a September rate hike, strengthen the dollar and trigger a deeper pullback.

27-08-2026 11:05 GMT by Łukasz Zembik

NVIDIA earnings preview: AI capex, Blackwell ramp and 216.40 bullish breakout hold the key

NVIDIA heads into Q2 FY2027 earnings as the market’s key test of whether AI infrastructure demand is still accelerating fast enough to justify its US$5 trillion-plus valuation. Traders will focus on Data Centre revenue, Blackwell and Rubin execution, gross margins, Q3 guidance and AI capex sustainability. Technically, a breakout above 216.40 could revive the medium-term uptrend, while a daily close below 195.95 would weaken the bullish reversal case.

26-08-2026 05:42 GMT by Kelvin Wong

FX markets and central banks Overview - USD/CAD - AUD/USD

During the week of August 17–21, 2026, major currency pairs rallied against the U.S. dollar amid shifting monetary policy expectations. While accelerated Canadian inflation bolstered the CAD and a cooling job market complicated the RBA’s outlook in Australia, markets looked past hawkish FOMC minutes to price in upcoming Fed rate cuts, driving broad gains led by NZD and AUD.

22-08-2026 00:18 GMT by Moheb Hanna

Treasury Intervention Puts the Dollar Under Pressure

A sharp rise in US Treasury yields dominated the week before the Treasury Department expanded its long-term bond buyback programme. The move improved market liquidity and briefly reduced borrowing costs, but also weakened the dollar. With oil prices elevated and US debt exceeding USD40 trillion, investors are questioning whether Washington is becoming more willing to tolerate currency depreciation in order to stabilise the bond market.

21-08-2026 12:37 GMT by Łukasz Zembik

Chart alert: Gold major bullish breakout as USD debasement narrative takes hold

Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a major bullish breakout, surging 4.35% on 19 August for its largest one-day gain since February 2026. The rally reflects growing US dollar debasement and fiscal-dominance concerns following larger US Treasury bond buybacks. Technical momentum remains bullish above the $4,434/$4,405 pivotal support, while a sustained break above $4,504 could reinforce the advance towards $4,580 and $4,640.

20-08-2026 07:38 GMT by Kelvin Wong

FOMC minutes, Canadian inflation data, and USD/CAD technical analysis

This report provides a financial analysis for the week of August 17, 2026. It covers market expectations ahead of the July FOMC minutes, noting the debate between inflation risks and a cooling labor market. It also examines Canada’s latest CPI data, highlighting that headline inflation reached 3.0% while core metrics remain steady. Finally, the report includes a USD/CAD daily chart analysis, noting current technical support levels and oversold conditions indicated by the RSI at 29.24.

18-08-2026 12:20 GMT by Moheb Hanna

China’s economy is losing momentum - weak domestic demand and the property crisis

China’s economy lost momentum at the start of the second half of 2026 as weak consumption, falling investment and a deepening property crisis outweighed the support from strong exports.

17-08-2026 09:31 GMT by Krzysztof Kamiński

Chart alert: GBP/USD remains firm above 1.3479 ahead of US CPI

GBP/USD remains firm ahead of the US CPI release after breaking above a key medium-term descending trendline following last Friday’s US NFP. Sterling’s near-term bullish momentum remains intact above the 1.3479 pivotal support, with upside targets at 1.3547, 1.3580 and 1.3643. A hotter-than-expected US core CPI could revive Fed rate-hike expectations and US dollar strength, while softer inflation may reinforce GBP/USD’s bullish breakout.

12-08-2026 11:09 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Dollar faces a tougher period as Fed expectations may shift

The dollar remains supported by relatively hawkish Fed expectations, but this advantage may weaken. A US-Iran de-escalation could lower energy prices and inflation risks, reducing the case for further US tightening. If markets begin to price a softer Fed policy path, the dollar could come under pressure and EUR/USD could gradually move higher.

07-08-2026 15:05 GMT by Łukasz Zembik

Chart alert: Yen’s 3-day weakness pauses at key 158.55/USD inflexion level ahead of NFP

USD/JPY’s three-day rebound is showing signs of exhaustion near the key 158.55 inflexion level ahead of the US non-farm payrolls release. The narrowing 2-year UST-JGB yield spread, a potential bearish flag and weakening hourly RSI momentum suggest renewed downside risks for USD/JPY. A break below the 157.95 downside trigger could expose 157.30 and 156.32, while a move above 158.55 may extend the rebound towards 159.45.

07-08-2026 09:18 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Chart alert: Microsoft (MSFT) bearish Head & Shoulders pattern emerges ahead of earnings

Microsoft's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings will be closely watched as investors assess whether the software giant can convert record AI infrastructure spending into stronger Azure growth, Copilot monetisation, and free cash flow. With Microsoft's Capex-to-Revenue ratio reaching a record high among the Magnificent 7 and technical indicators turning increasingly bearish, traders will focus on whether management's guidance can justify its elevated AI investment strategy.

29-07-2026 06:59 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Chart alert: Intel (INTC) bearish momentum intact below 120.35 as earnings loom

Intel reports its Q2 2026 earnings with investors closely watching whether its AI-driven turnaround can justify its 172% year-to-date rally. Beyond headline EPS and revenue, traders will focus on Data Centre and AI growth, capital expenditure, free cash flow, and management guidance. With technical indicators weakening and AI spending coming under greater scrutiny following Alphabet's earnings, Intel faces a critical test of both fundamentals and market sentiment.

23-07-2026 09:11 GMT by Kelvin Wong