Asia open: US stock futures and Asia Pacific equities wobbled on a firmer US dollar

• The unwinding of the Middle East risk premium continues to pressure energy markets. The US-Iran 60-day implementation roadmap and temporary authorisation of Iranian crude exports have accelerated the liquidation of long oil positions, pushing WTI and Brent crude toward multi-month lows despite ongoing diplomatic uncertainty.
• AI infrastructure spending remains a key pillar of market leadership. The strategic partnership between Micron and Anthropic reinforced the view that semiconductor and memory demand remains structurally strong, helping the SOX Index reach fresh record highs even as broader equity markets struggled for direction.
• A stronger US dollar and rising short-term Treasury yields are becoming the dominant macro headwind. The rise in the 2-year Treasury yield to its highest level since early 2025, coupled with persistent dollar strength, has weighed on Asia-Pacific equities and kept pressure on regional currencies, particularly the Japanese yen.
• Chart of the day: The S&P 500 is showing near-term weakness, trading below the key short-term resistance at 7,557 and back below the 20-day moving average.

Since the ex-post FOMC sell-off last Wednesday, 17 June 2026, the price action of the US S&P 500 CFD (a proxy for the S&P 500 E-mini futures) has remained lethargic, having re-entered a range below its 20-day moving average (see Fig. 1).

In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has broken below its ascending support, which suggests a revival of short-term bearish momentum.

Watch the 7,557 key short-term pivotal resistance to maintain a near-term bearish bias, and a break below 7,436 exposes the next intermediate support at 7,374 (also the 50-day moving average) in the first step.

However, a clearance with an hourly close above 7,557 invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest 7,600 and even the current all-time high of 7,625.

• US-Iran 60-Day peace roadmap triggers aggressive crude oil sell-off: Front-month WTI and Brent crude futures plunged toward $74.08 and $78.15 per barrel, while still trading above their respective 200-day moving averages as details of the diplomatic breakthrough emerged from Switzerland. Mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, the US and Iran have established an explicit 60-day implementation roadmap. The US Treasury’s subsequent temporary authorisation for the sale and transport of Iranian petroleum has alleviated immediate fears of a structural blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, thereby reducing geopolitical risk premiums.
• AI infrastructure land grab intensifies with Micron-Anthropic alliance: Several US semiconductor shares caught a strong bid following the announcement of a multi-billion-dollar strategic hardware and capital agreement between Micron Technology and AI pioneer Anthropic. Micron will guarantee priority supply of next-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to anchor Anthropic’s accelerating data centre expansions, while concurrently participating in a major Series H funding round, reinforcing intense institutional demand for physical-layer AI infrastructure.
• SpaceX shares retreat following blockbuster IPO mania and notes offering: One week after completing the largest IPO in history, shares of Elon Musk’s newly listed Space Exploration Technologies Corp. slid 3.9% to close at $154.60, breaking below its debut closing level of $160.95. The stock recorded its third consecutive daily loss as the rockets-to-AI giant announced plans for a new senior unsecured notes offering to support capital expenditures, following its final $85.7 billion IPO.
• Sovereign bond yields advance ahead of massive short-duration supply: Fixed income markets faced renewed selling pressure as global benchmark yields ticked higher. The US 2-year note auction forced short-duration yields higher as primary dealers braced for heavy supply absorption. The 2-year US Treasury yield jumped by 5 bps to close Monday’s session at 4.23%, its highest level since mid-February 2025.

• Geopolitical de-escalation and energy supply shocks’ pricing: The global commodity market is undergoing a swift adjustment as the US-Iran 60-day roadmap shifts from theoretical diplomacy to actual implementation. By explicitly authorising the near-term delivery and sale of Iranian crude, the US Treasury has effectively eliminated the risk of an extended shipping blockade in the Persian Gulf. This rapid normalisation of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is prompting systematic macro funds to liquidate long energy hedges, overriding localised supply constraints and fundamentally lowering the baseline for global input cost inflation.
• The secular insulation of AI capital expenditure: Despite broader macroeconomic uncertainty and elevated global borrowing costs, the physical layer of the artificial intelligence ecosystem remains highly insulated from cyclical contraction. The strategic alliance between Micron and Anthropic underscores an ongoing “land grab” for specialised silicon and high-bandwidth memory. Because tier-one AI developers are prioritising infrastructure security over near-term capital conservation, corporate expenditure in the semiconductor supply chain is acting as a primary structural backstop for equity markets, decoupling tech benchmarks from underlying fixed-income volatility.
• Post-IPO valuation rebalancing of trillion-dollar mega-caps: The post-listing turbulence in SpaceX highlights the complex fundamental math facing newly public mega-caps. While retail and options mania propelled the combined rocket-and-AI entity past a $2.2 trillion valuation last week, its high capital expenditure profile, exceeding fiscal 2025 revenue, and the announcement of a new debt offering have brought fundamental discipline back into focus. At 118 times fiscal 2025 sales, the market’s willingness to look past immediate net losses to fund Starlink and Starship infrastructure serves as a major indicator of long-duration growth risk appetite across global asset classes.

Equities: The broader equity landscape closed flat to mixed, but semiconductor stocks significantly outperformed, with the SOX rallying 2% to a new all-time high. Micron Technology climbed 7% on news of its strategic deal with Anthropic, providing strong upward momentum that lifted hardware and semiconductor names. Conversely, SpaceX (SPCX) slipped 3.94% to $154.60 as profit-taking, and its upcoming debt offering weighed on early momentum.

FX: The US Dollar Index (DXY) inched higher by 0.2% to close Monday’s session at 110.00 after last week’s bullish breakout from its prior major range resistance of 100.54. The Swiss franc (CHF) underperformed notably across major currency pairs, extending its losses against the greenback to a 7-month low of 0.8097, pressured by the Swiss National Bank’s sustained dovish structural policy stance relative to peers. Meanwhile, the ongoing weakness in the Japanese yen tested a key intervention level of 161.95 per US dollar on Monday. USD/JPY printed an intraday high of 161.93 before trading slightly lower to close at 161.60 in the US session.

Fixed income: Sovereign bonds faced moderate selling pressure. Euro area yields edged higher, led by Spanish debt following an upgraded regional inflation forecast. US Treasury curves shifted upward as market participants braced for heavy short-duration supply absorption later in the week.

Commodities: Front-month international energy contracts suffered sharp liquidations. Brent crude plunged 2.8% to close at $78.15/bbll as the US Treasury’s 60-day waiver on Iranian petroleum exports neutralised the structural war premium, while spot gold remained soft to end Monday’s US session at $4,192/oz, holding below its 20-day moving average at $4,320/oz on the backdrop of firmer US Treasury yields.

• APAC technology ecosystems capture hardware tailwinds but US dollar strength capped gains: The multi-billion-dollar infrastructure commitments across the US technology complex triggered immediate positive spillover effects for Asian semiconductor hubs. But a firmer US dollar has triggered a bout of selling pressure in most Asia-Pacific bourses at the start of today’s Asian session. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-0.9%), South Korea’s KOSPI (-4.1%), Taiwan’s TAIEX (-0.3%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (-0.6%), China’s CSI 300 (-1%), with the exception of Australia’s ASX 200 (unchanged), and Singapore’s STI (+0.3%).
• Regional importers benefit from Persian Gulf supply normalisation: The sudden de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is providing a meaningful structural cushion for energy-dependent Asian economies. Major regional refiners, particularly across China and India, are projecting lower near-term crude import bills, offering localised support to current account balances.

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