• Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.
• Markets conclude a very volatile week, with hopes for peace going back and forth and sentiment losing its head
• Get ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.

This week has been nothing short of historic.

Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have charged to fresh all-time highs, completely leaving the geopolitical panic behind as traders aggressively price in a proper peace agreement – The move has bulldozed through any type of resistances and prior records, in a move that has left many traders scratching their head.

Only the Dow Jones is looking to catch up to its younger peers, but is already on pace to do so – That is, if the current pricing withstands the weekend.

While the past two weeks of US-Iran negotiations have generated their fair share of chaotic headlines, the diplomatic process unfolding in Pakistan appears genuinely serious, with both sides making significant, market-moving concessions.

The absolute catalyst for the week was this morning's market-rocking news regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Bolstered by President Trump's remarks that he expects a finalized deal in a day or two, the geopolitical risk premium imploded.

Oil prices collapsed nearly 10% since yesterday, completely erasing their previous rally to trade comfortably right below the $90 handle.

Notably, clear signs of insider trading emerged in the Crude market just before the announcement—a continuation of the wild market craziness that has defined Trump’s second term, but certainly not a first.

Moving forward, physical traders will be closely monitoring the Strait to see if actual tanker flows resume.

The euphoria isn't limited to traditional equities paying out big peace dividends. Cryptocurrencies caught a massive bid, with Bitcoin exploding back to life and rallying to sit just below the $80,000 (~$78,000) mark as the weekend approaches, also boosting other crypto assets.

On the macroeconomic front, the reality of the recent commodity shock is setting in. Both US CPI and PPI inflation reports rose strongly, although optimists will console as they missed their most extreme upside expectations.

However, this energy-driven jump could merely be the beginning of a much more significant inflationary wave hitting the economy over the coming months.

This week will provide fresh insights on inflation in other countries including Japan, Canada and the UK.

Now, participants are bracing for a pivotal week.

The current ceasefire officially expires on April 22 – Without a formal extension or a signed peace deal, this historic progress could vanish in a flash, throwing markets back into extreme volatility.

An actual deal will be mandatory to sustain the rally.

As you can see, when Oil suffers, everybody dances. Even with the commodity gapping higher at the beginning of the week, Stock Markets have continued to explode higher and shortly after, everything followed.

WTI Crude is down 10% since the beginning of the week, and off 17% from its weekly opening gap.

The most risky assets have naturally outperformed the recovery, with Cryptos (ETH and Altcoins) on top, Silver dominating the Metals market and Nasdaq dominating global Stock benchmarks.

Discover:

• USD/JPY forms a major Head & Shoulders pattern as Oil crumbles – FX Analysis
• Chart alert: The laggard Dow Jones (DJIA) is in the process of a bullish catch-up above 47,895 key support
• Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) potential bullish breakout above $4,900

Traders will have to get ready for a roller-coaster week, with macroeconomic data and major peace headlines on schedule.

Japan is under heavy pressure regarding their future monetary policy, and with the Inflation report for March incoming, where the first effects of Energy price hikes will be felt, the moment could be decisive.

The release is expected on Thursday evening (7:30 P.M.) – A large beat could confirm a rate hike at the end-May meeting if economic conditions don't worsen by then.

Bank of Japan representatives did refuse to comment on the issue during the IMF Meeting.

GBP traders will have a lot on their plate in the coming week, with a three-streak combo:

UK Employment, Inflation and Retail Sales, providing insights on the state of the economy and price rises as participants prepare for an economic shock.

Euro traders will have to pay close attention to the ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey and German PMIs that could also reshape forward looking pricing for the Old Continent.

The US takes a relative break from economic data, only releasing Retail sales on Tuesday and leaves space for continued price discovery.

Keep in mind that past week movements will be contingent on a sustainable peace deal with Iran, with the talks expected throughout the weekend.

CAD traders will also have to reprice chances of future hikes with Canadian Inflation opening the North American week on Monday.

A 2.5% consensus is announced, but energy price rises could definitely point to a beat on such low expectations.

The Hormuz reopening news was icing on a very bullish cake to conclude this extremely positive week.

The heaviest Beta assets did what they did best and kept exploding higher across the Asset map – Cryptos and Silver, finish on top, both up around 3% on average.

US Benchmarks kept extending further to their newfound peaks, with the Dow Jones catching up and concluding the session on top.

On the other side, Crude Oil took a 10% beating after the news, but somewhat bounced as the session went by – Expect a lot of movement in the commodity in the coming week.

Safe Trades and an enjoyable weekend!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

USD/JPY was once again the main target for US Dollar bulls amid the ongoing major US-Iran War, which began on February 27 (with a positive twist in the past week and a half).

Energy commodity prices have more than doubled since the imposition of ceaseless supply restrictions from Iran's capture of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI and Brent Crude prices have at some point risen by more than 100% and are remaining about 35% higher than they were just at the beginning of February.

A significant portion of Asian crude oil imports depends on this region. As a result, prices for both physical crude and refined products have soared.

This was seen as a particular strain on the Eastern continent, and the clearest evidence is in the change in Jet Fuel prices.

For such a populous region, particularly dependent on fossil fuels for electricity production and manufacturing, this has proven quite damaging.

Luckily for Japan, it has held the largest proven strategic oil reserves in the world, but this hasn't helped Forex hawks severely punish the JPY against the dominant US Dollar.

Victim of its own confused Monetary Policy, with largely expected rate hikes progressively fading out due to slower inflation reports and contradicting policymakers, the Land of the Rising Sun was the target of a large FX repricing.

Luckily for the Yen, the conflict is now priced to end soon.

The Strait of Hormuz was announced reopened this morning, with statements from both the US and Iran, and the Administration pushing for it to move forward with the negotiations.

USD/JPY has now entered a corrective phase, which could extend if the conflict were to end.

With a Head and Shoulders pattern forming, it will be important to see whether this move indeed has legs, pointing to longer-term bearish positioning in the pair.

Let's dive right into a multi-timeframe analysis for the Gopher – more commonly named, USD/JPY.

Read More:

• Chart alert: The laggard Dow Jones (DJIA) is in the process of a bullish catch-up above 47,895 key support
• The US Dollar is stalls as the world awaits Ceasefire news – DXY Outlook
• Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) potential bullish breakout above $4,900

USD/JPY is now entering a potentially significant corrective phase, pushing towards a break of the range established since March 10.

Testing and wicking at the 50-Day Moving Average (157.60), mean-reversion buying has faded the morning move, but the Daily RSI, now falling in bearish territory, is pointing to a move that could have just begun.

Let's take a closer look.

The action shows a bit more details on the morning volatile action, with buyers re-entering at the precise 157.533 lows reached on March 19.

With the RSI quickly falling, the action is now close to oversold which could prompt interesting mean-reversion to offer pullback entry opportunities.

A break of the morning lows could extend to the 155.00 Mini-Support, target of the Head & Shoulders measured move.

Resistance levels

• 158.50 to 159.50 2026 Major Resistance (pullback interest)
• 4H 200-period MA 158.920
• April 2024 160.00 to 160.40 Major Resistance
• June Mini resistance 160.70 to 161.00

Support levels

• 157.533 lows reached on March 19 (bearish below)
• December highs Major Pivot 157.40 to 157.85
• 156.485 4H 200-period MA
• 156.00 Pivotal Support
• 155.00 Mini-Support

Safe Trades and wishing you a pleasant week-end ahead!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
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• DJIA lagging but poised for catch-up: While other major US indices have posted gains post ceasefire, the Dow has underperformed but is now showing signs of a bullish catch-up above key support at 47,895.
• Macro tailwind improving for financials: Stabilisation and potential re-steepening of the US yield curve could boost bank profitability, supporting the Dow given its heavy financial sector weighting.
• Bullish technical structure forming: The DJIA is in a minor uptrend within an ascending channel; a break above 48,850 may extend gains toward 49,715/49,835, while failure risks a pullback toward 47,460.

Since the start of the ongoing recovery seen in the risk assets, such as global equities, last Wednesday, 8 February 2026, on the backdrop of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, which put a pause to the seven-week war, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has lagged behind the other three major US stock indices with a current loss of 0.8% from pre-war baseline on 27 February 2026 to Thursday, 16 April 2026.

In contrast, gains were recorded in the S&P 500 (+2.4%), small caps Russell 2000 (+3.3%), and the top performer, the higher beta technology heavyweight, Nasdaq 100 (+5.5%) (see Fig. 1).

The Financials sector is the top sector in the DJIA, with a weightage of around 27%, and Goldman Sachs is the top price-weighted component stock in the DJIA with a weight of 11.4% as of Thursday, 17 April 2026.

The underperformance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been underpinned by bear flattening of the US Treasury yield curve (10-year minus 2-year), where the yield spread dropped by 11 basis points (bps) to hit an eight-month low of 0.48% on the week of 16 March 2026; such a shift typically signals tighter financial conditions, which can weigh on economic growth and pressure bank profitability.

In the past five trading sessions, stagflation risk arising from a prolonged period of global oil supply crunch has eased, in turn, reducing the odds of a hawkish monetary policy guidance from the US Federal Reserve.

Hence, the 4 weeks of bear flattening movement seen in the US Treasury yield curve have started to plateau as the yield spread has increased by 5 bps to 0.53% at the time of writing (see Fig. 2).

A bull re-steepening in the US Treasury yield curve is likely to improve the earnings prospects of banks, in turn, triggering a positive feedback loop into the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Let's now decipher the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index and its supporting elements from a technical analysis perspective.

Watch the 47,895 key short-term pivotal support on the US Wall Street 30 CFD index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average E-mini futures).

A clearance above the 48,850 near-term resistance increases the odds of the continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 49,180/49,250 and 49,715/49,835 (see Fig. 3).

On the other hand, failure to hold at 48,850 with an hourly close below it negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline towards the next immediate supports at 47,460 and 46,970/46,710 (the area around the intersection of the 20-day and 200-day moving averages impending bullish crossover).

• Price actions started to oscillate within a minor ascending channel from the 30 March 2026 low and traded above all three moving averages (20-day, 50-day, and 200-day).
• The hourly RSI momentum index has managed to stage a rebound after a retest on its ascending support on Thursday, 16 April 2026, at the 43 level.
• Elliot Wave Theory suggests the recent rally from the 2 April 2026 low of 45,882 is likely considered as a minor bullish impulsive wave three structure with its potential terminal zone at 49,715/49,835 (1.00 Fibonacci extension from the 2 April 2026 low and the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel).

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The FTSE 100 maintains a firm bullish posture, holding comfortably above the 10000 psychological level
• The index is currently consolidating sideways between 10550 and 10700 as it searches for its next catalyst.
• The broader "buy-the-dip" structural breakout remains the primary driver, with bulls staying in control as long as the index holds above 10500.

Most Read: NZD/USD Technical Outlook: Bulls stare down major resistance, bullish bias hinges on the 0.5821 pivot

The FTSE 100 continues to exhibit resilient price action as we close out the trading week. Despite a brief period of volatility in March, the index has firmly reclaimed its bullish posture, underpinned by a shift that suggests the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

On the daily timeframe, the FTSE 100 is currently consolidating just below its recent swing highs. The most notable technical development is the index's ability to remain comfortably above the 10000 psychological level, which previously served as the "12 Nov Swing High."

Key takeaways from the daily view:

• The SMA Cluster: The index is trading well above its 100-day MA (blue) at 10198 and the 200-day MA (yellow) at 9761. The widening gap between price and these long-term averages highlights the strength of the current trend.
• Ascending Support: A clear ascending trendline (black) continues to guide price action higher, currently providing a dynamic floor near the 10400 zone.
• RSI Momentum: The Daily RSI is sitting at 58.3, comfortably away from overbought territory. This suggests there is significant "white space" for the index to rally toward the 10786 resistance level before momentum exhaustion becomes a primary concern.

FTSE 100 Daily Chart, April 17, 2026

The H4 chart provides a clearer picture of the recovery following the late-March dip. After testing liquidity below 10000, the index surged back, reclaiming the 10269 and 10500 handles.

We are currently seeing a period of sideways consolidation between 10550 and 10,700. The H4 RSI is currently neutral at 51.0, reflecting a market that is searching for its next catalyst. The 100-period MA (blue) on the H4 is currently trending at 10352, acting as a secondary line of defense should we see an intraday pullback.

FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, April 17, 2026

The H1 chart shows the index currently hovering around the 10596 mark, sandwiched between the 50-period (dark blue) and 100-period (yellow) moving averages on this timeframe.

The Bullish Scenario

For the bulls to reassert dominance in the upcoming session, we need to see a sustained hold above the intraday pivot at 10600. A clean break above the recent local high of 10660 would open the door for a retest of the major resistance ceiling at 10786. Traders should watch for the RSI to climb back above 60 to confirm that buying momentum is returning.

The Bearish Scenario

If the index fails to hold the 10580 support level (near the current 100-MA), we could see a slide toward the 10552 handle. A break below this zone would suggest a deeper corrective move is underway, potentially targeting the H4 support at 10500. The appearance of a "PIVOT" high on the RSI suggests that the immediate upside might be capped in the very short term.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 10660, 10700, 10786 (Major)
• Support: 10580, 10552, 10500

FTSE 100 One-Hour Chart, April 17, 2026

The FTSE 100 remains in a "buy-the-dip" regime. While intraday consolidation is the current theme, the broader structural breakout on the daily chart remains the primary driver. As long as the index holds above 10500 on a closing basis, bulls remain in control.

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Gold positioning for breakout: After rebounding ~18% from March lows, gold is consolidating below the $4,900 resistance (near the 50-day MA), with technicals suggesting a potential bullish breakout if this level is cleared.
• Macro tailwinds improving: Rising odds of Fed rate cuts, a weakening US dollar, and declining US real yields are reducing opportunity costs and creating a supportive backdrop for gold prices.
• Catch-up trade vs equities: Gold has lagged equities despite similar macro drivers, but intermarket dynamics point to a potential bullish catch-up move, towards $4,980/5,039 and $5,125/5,166 with key short-term support at $4,700/4,645.

Gold (XAU/USD) has held steady on Friday, 17 April 2026, during the Asian session with a minuscule intraday gain of 0.2% to trade at $4,800 at this time of writing.

The precious yellow metal was on track for a fourth straight weekly gain, as hopes for a US-Iran peace deal eased fears of stagflation risk and higher longer-term interest rates.

Based on the pre-US-Iran war baseline set on 27 February 2026, gold has plummeted by 22% (high to low) to print an intraday low of $4,099 on 23 March 2026.

Thereafter, it rebounded by 18% to hit an intraday high of $4,871 on Wednesday, 15 April 2026, just below its 50-day moving average, which is acting as an intermediate resistance at around $4,900.

So far, spot gold based on prices quoted by the London Bullion Market Association has underperformed the other global cross-asset classes since the start of the war, where it still recorded a loss of 8% as of Thursday, 16 April 2026, versus positive gains seen in global equities where the MSCI All Country World Index rebounded back to almost the unchanged level (+0.69%), led by the US mega-cap technology centric, Nasdaq 100 that reversed to a gain of 5.50% (see Fig. 1).

The primary reason for gold to lag equities at this juncture (same movement but different pace) is due to its non-income-bearing feature, as gold does not yield dividends and earnings, but competes with the US dollar and fixed income assets such as bonds.

Intermarket analysis suggests that gold is likely to play a bullish catch-up at this juncture to narrow equities’ outperformance gap.

During the onset of the US-Iran war, the US Dollar Index staged a rally of 3% to hit an 11-month high of 100.64 on 31 March 2026 as Fed funds interest rate cut bets evaporated to a chance of zero in 2026 due to stagflation fear from a potential prolonged global oil supply shock via the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

As ceasefire chances have increased in the past five trading sessions, the CME FedWatch tool, as of 17 April 2026, has started to show an increased odds of a 25 basis points cut (from 0% to 33%), potentially reducing the Fed funds rate to 3.25%-3.50% on the 9 December 2026 FOMC meeting (see Fig. 2).

An implied less hawkish Fed momentary policy priced by the Fed funds futures market has led to a 2.8% drop in the US Dollar Index to 98.20, and it has traded below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages at the time of writing.

A further weakening of the US dollar is likely to boost another round of a positive feedback loop for gold.

Gold has a significant indirect correlation with the longer-term US Treasury yields, as the precious yellow metal is a non-interest income-bearing asset.

Hence, a higher 10-year US Treasury real yield (nominal yield minus inflationary expectations from break-even rate) will tend to imply a higher opportunity cost for owning and holding gold, in turn, lesser demand that may drive down prices of gold. Vice versa, gold will tend to benefit from a lower 10-year US Treasury real yield.

The 10-year US Treasury real yield has hit a 9-month high of 2.17% on 27 March 2026, just a whisker below its long-term pivotal resistance of 2.20% before it reversed down and broke a key ascending trendline support from the 2 March 2026 low that previously led to a sell-off in gold (see Fig. 3).

Right now, a break below its recent 15 April 2026 low of 1.85% (also the 200-day moving average) is likely to see further weakness in the 10-year US Treasury real yield to retest its medium-term range support at 1.66%, in turn, benefiting gold.

Let us now dissect the short-term outlook (1 to 3 days) of gold (XAU/USD) from a technical analysis perspective.

The price actions of gold (XAU/USD) have been traded above its 20-day moving average since a retest of it on Monday, 13 April 2026 (after the failure of the first round of US-Iran peace talks).

Watch the $4,700/4,645 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above $4,900 sees the start of another potential bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at $4,980/5,039 and $5,125/5,166 in the first step (see Fig. 4).

However, a break and an hourly close below $4,645 invalidates the bullish tone for a slide towards the next intermediate support at $4,524/4,486 (also 50% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 23 March 2026 low to 15 April 2026 high).

• Price actions of gold (XAU/USD) have been oscillating within a minor ascending channel since the 23 March 2026 low.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to stage a rebound at a horizontal support of 39.
• Elliot Wave Theory suggests the recent rally from the 27 March 2026 low of $4,351 is likely considered as a minor bullish impulsive wave three structure with its potential terminal zone at $4,980/5,166 (1.382 and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions).

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The NZD/USD is currently facing its sternest technical test at the 0.5918–0.5920 resistance zone
• The Daily chart suggests a potential long-term trend shift, but the H4 RSI shows bearish divergence, signaling short-term exhaustion.
• A clean break above 0.5920 would accelerate the move toward 0.5950.
• Inability to hold the level, followed by a break below 0.5873, risks a corrective slide back to the major support pivot at 0.5821.

Most Read: Cable eyes 1.3696 after reclaiming key moving averages, bulls defend 1.3500

The New Zealand Dollar may be about to face its sternest test yet. The pair has to grapple with a cluster of technical resistance levels around the 0.5918-0.5920 zone, the question for the upcoming session is whether the bulls have enough fuel left in the tank for a structural breakout or if we are due for a "mean reversion" back toward 0.5820.

The macro view on the daily chart reveals a pair attempting to break free from a long-term bearish regime. After a sharp sell-off in early 2026, NZD/USD has formed a classic "V-shaped" recovery, slicing through the first major obstacle at 0.5821.

Currently, spot prices are knocking on the door of the 0.5918 resistance level. A daily close above this confluence would signal a significant trend shift, potentially opening the door for a move toward the 0.6100 handle.

However, the Daily RSI at 56.4 shows that while momentum is positive, the pair is far from overbought, suggesting that there is still "white space" for bulls to exploit if the breakout is confirmed.

NZD/USD Daily Chart, April 16, 2026

Zooming into the H4 timeframe, the bullish structure remains intact, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows. The pair may find support at the 0.5870 - 0.5850 zone, which previously acted as a cap.

However, a note of caution for the bulls: the H4 RSI has printed multiple "BEAR" pivot warnings at the recent peaks near 0.5920. This bearish divergence suggests that the "easy money" on the long side may have been made, and the pair might need a period of consolidation or a slight pullback to gather strength before its next impulsive leg.

NZD/USD Four-Hour Chart, April 16, 2026

The hourly chart provides a clear roadmap for the upcoming session, showing the pair currently trading around 0.5892 after a slight rejection from the 0.5918 ceiling.

The Bullish Scenario

For the rally to resume, the Kiwi needs to hold above the intraday support at 0.5873. If buying pressure returns, a clean break above 0.5920 would likely trigger stops from short-sellers, potentially leading to an accelerated move toward 0.5950 and 0.5980. Traders coul look for a "bull flag" consolidation pattern on the M30 or M15 as a precursor to this move.

The Bearish Scenario

The inability to hold above the 0.5920 level is the first warning sign. If we see a break below 0.5873, it would likely confirm a "double top" on the lower timeframes. This could trigger a corrective slide back toward the major support pivot at 0.5821, where the long-term descending trendline might be retested from the "top side."

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 0.5918 (Major), 0.5950, 0.6000
• Support: 0.5873, 0.5821 (Pivot), 0.5780

GBP/USD One-Hour Chart, April 16, 2026

NZD/USD is at a critical technical junction. While the daily structure is turning constructive, the short-term indicators are screaming for a breather. As long as the 0.5821 level holds on a closing basis, the bullish bias remains the dominant theme.

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 16

After yesterday's extreme Stock Market session, Traders are taking somewhat of a break.

The quotes in the headline, are due to the fact that even in a muted session, large movements are still observed, but with the new phase in Markets, they remain more concentrated.

The main culprit of today's action was once again Crude Oil, rallying from the lack of concrete headlines regarding US-Iran talks, that were supposed to take place today but instead got previewed by President Trump for this weekend.

Some great news came from the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire which got agreed this morning to take place immediately. It is a great step towards a longer-standing peace process between the two neighbors, but doubts will remain on Lebanon's ability to disarm Hezbollah, (who are still eager to wage war against Israel) the most essential element for a longer-run peace process .

The news took out a few dollars off of the 4% daily rally in Black Gold.

In any case, this was the final demand from the Iranian side to participate in the second round of talks.

While Nasdaq printed some new all-time highs and US Indexes grinded higher, their action was quite contained from the absence of clarity.

With no particular data releases (except for a small miss in Australian Employment) and a few Fed Speeches, the situation really did not change much.

Central Bankers are all confused and unsure of what to communicate from the ongoing uncertainty, as NY Fed's Williams confirmed in his speech.

Read More:

• WTI and Brent Oil bounce with US-Iran news still awaited – What's next? Intraday Analysis
• The US Dollar is stalls as the world awaits Ceasefire news – DXY Outlook
• Chart alert: AUD/USD 360 pips rally at risk of a minor mean reversion decline below 0.7200 before new upleg

Today's Stock Market action was once again pulled by all sides with chaotic individual stock dynamics which did not paint any particular sense of sectorial harmony.

Healthcare remains under strain, but remained bid throughout the conflict – Hence, with Investors turning back to riskier-assets, this could only be due to some repositioning.

Netflix also just reported a beat on their earnings but issued confusing guidance and the Stock is dropping in after-hours trading.

Tomorrow will conclude the heavy financials reporting week – No particular name to outline but keep track of the sector after this week's heavy names having reported.

After yesterday's explosion all across the risk-asset board, the Market really stalled it action.

At least, the sell-the-Thursday trend observed since the beginning of the year seems to have officially stalled.

Traders will have to remain locked in tomorrow as while uncertainty isn't expected to disappear, there could be some movement ahead of weekend risk!

The Canadian Dollar is following WTI in its daily rebound, while other FX currencies remained under absolutely muted.

The CAD is at interesting spots as explained in our USD/CAD analysis from earlier this week – Even with Oil correcting, increased orders away from the Gulf could be providing interesting longer-run opportunities for the currency.

This is a development to keep your eyes on in FX.

The Calendar is virtually empty in tomorrow's session, so this will allow Traders to follow the pre-weekend risk flows. Listen to the tape!

As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations, with the negotiations starting again tomorrow.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• WTI and Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis with key levels as US-Iran news are still awaited
• Despite extreme positivism in Stock Markets, Energy commodities remain doubtful
• Volatility continues to shrink, but the latest progress has largely stalled

The pricing of a peace deal between the US and Iran is continuous but also quite coarse.

While Equity Markets have gone on an absolute frantic rally, boosted by short-covering, options delta hedging, TACOs, and an ever-hungrier investor, Commodities are subject to very different dynamics.

Particularly when it comes to Energy products, Supply and Demand play their own very influential role.

While Futures pricing helps to dictate expectations, Traders have to remember that, before anything else, real products are needed for production, consumption, and much more around the world – Hence, physical demand has an immense influence on prices.

A major narrative that has emerged throughout the War is the large difference between physical and futures pricing, which has raised questions about a disconnect between Market pricing and the real-life issues faced by large buyers.

The Futures Market has been in a large backwardation (where front contracts trade well above later contracts) – A natural formation amid supply fears, but no less damaging for hedgers. I invite you all to discover such dynamics throughout this fantastic CME piece.

Add to this gigantic regional discrepancies in Barrel prices, particularly in Asia, and you get a Market pulled higher by relentless demand while supply remains in a large drought.

This has created another wave of rallying throughout the session, with selloffs remaining supported by fresher bids – As long as Hormuz remains closed, a grind higher on pullbacks in Oil remains the path of least resistance.

Meanwhile, US-Iran talks that were supposed to start again today, are finally set to only start throughout the weekend. This did come with its fair share of good news, with Israel and Lebanon agreeing to a ceasefire, a final step before the discussions.

With these factors in mind, let's dive right into an intraday outlook for both WTI and Brent Oil, highlighting their technical levels and outlining scenarios for their breakouts or breakdowns.

Discover:

• The US Dollar is stalls as the world awaits Ceasefire news – DXY Outlook
• Chart alert: AUD/USD 360 pips rally at risk of a minor mean reversion decline below 0.7200 before new upleg
• Cable eyes 1.3696 after reclaiming key moving averages, bulls defend 1.3500

WTI Crude has once again fallen below Brent after an irregular Market pricing throughout the past week, tumbling to $87.20 with Israel-Lebanon Peace talks boosting sentiment.

Nevertheless, as expressed in the introduction, the path of least resistance is to the upside, hence, bulls have pushed the commodity right back towards the 4H 200-period moving average (~$94.30).

Having rejected it, sellers will want to see extension back towards $90.

Failing to do so could see a large $90 to $100 range as traders await for clear instructions on where to look next.

Resistance and Support levels remain the best guides to navigate these volatile environments.

WTI Technical Levels:

Resistance Levels

• Daily highs $113.50 to $114.50 (small channel top)
• 2022 and Monday highs $117 to $120 (larger channel top)
• Ukraine War Spike $120 to $124

Support Levels

• War Support $93.00 - $95 (testing)
• $87 to $90 mini-Support (recent bounce)
• $82.80 to $84 micro-Support
• 2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80
• $69 to $70 Final War Support

Brent is still in a more contained price action compared to WTI, with the range now extending to $95 to $107.

Now testing its key 50 and 200-4H MAs, the action remains quite undecided.

Breakout traders will want to see a daily close below $95 (for sellers) and a clean break above $107 for buyers.

If the situation remains uncertain, the range should maintain.

Brent Technical Levels:

Resistance Levels

• $100 - $102 End-March Pivot
• Mini Resistance $105 - $107
• Range Resistance $111 to $114
• War Highs $117 to $120

Support Levels

• End-March Support $95 to $97
• $92.39 Recent dip
• $88 - $92 March 10 Bounce and 200-MA
• $80 - $82 Key War Support
• Pre-War Gap $75

Keep track of the headlines as the talks come closer by the second.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The US Dollar stalls its correction as Traders hold their breath, awaiting for Ceasefire news
• After a 2.50% correction in the Dollar Index, FX remains quite stuck
• US Dollar Index (DXY) in-depth Technical Analysis

The US Dollar is under some complex dynamics, still moving along with Crude Oil prices, and both are just stuck in the mud.

The talks, supposed to begin today in Islamabad, haven't made it to the news yet, so it seems that there are some delays – The US is still eager to reach a deal, but Pete Hegseth, Head of the Department of War just issued a address to reaffirm that the most powerful army is "to restart combat if Iran doesn't agree to a deal".

Amid the borderline-insane price action in the Stock Markets, with two of the three Major Indexes reaching all-time highs (Nasdaq just set a new record in overnight trading), Participants are taking a break to await clearer developments.

After all, at current levels, whether for the USD, Stocks, or WTI, risks to the upside and downside are both extreme.

For now, Crude has stopped its move to the downside and is even moving higher, keeping the broader Market awaiting – You can see how significant the WTI-Dollar correlation has remained throughout the entire Ceasefire.

Hence, tracking Oil is almost more important than the headlines themselves for Forex trading.

Stock markets, on the other hand, did own heavily, lifting, having relatively decoupled from Black Gold, but will be looking at the commodity for the next phase.

In terms of pure geopolitics, the Israel-Lebanon talks under US supervision seems to be progressing smoothly, with a potential ceasefire in the coming hours/days.

Hezbollah will have to be put on the side, and they are reportedly exerting heavy pressure to not enter into deals with Israel. The terrorist organization has prevented deals ever since 1993, the year when Jordan and Israel reached a Peace deal that has held since.

There have been reports that there are no more deadlocks in the US-Iran mediated negotiations – But these headlines haven't been as decisive to provide further clarity on the situation. Hence, from here, all that traders will wait to see is a proper resolution.

With WTI now catching a bid, the US Dollar is extending higher on the session, with moves still quite timid for now.

We’ll explore a few scenarios for a potential large reversal in an in-depth technical analysis of DXY.

Discover:

• S&P 500 to 7,000 & Nasdaq 100 points to ATH – Are Markets getting ahead of themselves?
• Chart alert: AUD/USD 360 pips rally at risk of a minor mean reversion decline below 0.7200 before new upleg
• Cable eyes 1.3696 after reclaiming key moving averages, bulls defend 1.3500

In the bigger picture, the large 95.50 to 100.00 range is holding extremely well, with a double top last at the most recent test that led to the ongoing correction in the US Dollar.

As always, it is more than advised to keep an eye on the bigger timeframes to see if any particular trend dictates the price action, as they offer some setups and allow to reduce if not discard the noise.

After the 2.50% correction, the move is stalling and this comes right around the middle of the range, an important level for the bull/bear intermediate outlook.

The Dollar Index is forming an immediate bullish divergence, boosting prospects for an immediate pullback higher.

The 98.50-98.70 War Pivot and Psychological level would offer strong opportunities in to rejoin the trend in other FX pairs.

Extending to 98.80 (4H 50-period MA) offers the best entries, however, any close above could entice a pursued rally in the USD.

Keep a close eye on other FX pairs to position yourself – GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY offer favorable setups on pullbacks.

Levels to place on your DXY charts:

Resistance Levels

• 98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot
• 98.80 4H 50-period MA
• 99.40 to 99.50 Resistance
• 100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highs
• War Highs 100.544 (Double Top)

Support Levels

• 98.00 Major Support (rejecting)
• Support 97.40 to 97.60
• 2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00
• Range lows at Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.00

Safe Trades and keep track of the latest headlines!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Strong rally driven by risk-on sentiment: AUD/USD surged ~360 pips from late-March lows, supported by US–Iran ceasefire optimism and its high-beta sensitivity to global risk assets, outperforming most major currencies.
• Short-term pullback likely: The recent three-week bullish move appears overstretched, with technical signals pointing to a minor mean reversion decline after testing the 0.7188–0.7200 resistance zone.
• Key levels to watch: A break below 0.7120 may trigger a pullback toward 0.7080–0.7033 (50-day MA) before a potential next up leg, while a sustained move above 0.7200 would extend gains toward 0.7240–0.7300.

The Australian dollar has benefited significantly since last Wednesday, 8 April, when the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire due to its higher beta factor, as the AUD has mirrored the movement of risk assets such as equities since the start of the US-Iran war on 28 February 2026, exhibiting similar risk-off movements, ignoring the hawkish monetary policy guidance advocated by the RBA.

The AUD/USD has jumped by 230 pips (+3.3%) from the 8 April 2026 low to print an intraday high of 0.7198 on Thursday, 16 April 2026 at this time of writing, just a whisker above its prior 11 March 2026 high of 0.7188.

When measured from its current minor uptrend low of 0.6833 printed on 30 March 2026, it has rallied by almost 360 pips (+5.3%), making the Australian dollar the second-best-performing major currency against the US dollar based on a one-month rolling performance; USD/AUD (-2.47%), just behind the euro where the USD/EUR slid -3.04% (see Fig. 1).

However, price actions of highly liquid tradable instruments do move vertically but oscillate within trends.

Technically speaking, the three -week bullish impulsive up move on the AUD/USD from its 30 March 2026 low of 0.6833 is now due for a minor mean reversion corrective decline.

Let’s now focus on the technical factors to determine AUD/USD’s potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days).

Watch the 0.7188/0.7200 key short-term pivotal resistance on the AUD/USD. A break below 0.7120 increases the odds of a minor mean reversion decline towards the next intermediate supports of 0.7080 and 0.7033 (also the 50-day moving average) before the next bullish impulsive up move sequence materializes (see Fig. 2).

On the flip side, a clearance and an hourly close above 0.7200 invalidates the bearish bias for a continuation of the bullish move towards 0.7244/0.7265 and 0.7300 in the first step.

• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has exited from its overbought region and broken a key ascending support from 13 April 2026.
• Today’s current intraday high of 0.7198 has hit the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel in place since the 2 April 2026 low.
• In addition, the 0.7198 intraday high confluences closely with the 0.764 Fibonacci extension of a minor five-wave bullish impulsive up move sequence target of 0.7185, which suggests the potential end of the current minor up move sequence of the AUD/USD from the 30 March 2026 low of 0.6833, based on the Elliot Wave Theory.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The daily chart confirms a major structural breakout, shifting the macro bias for GBP/USD from "sell the rallies" to "buy the dips".
• The primary structural target for the current rally is the major resistance zone at 1.3696
• "Cable" is consolidating near the 1.3600 handle, with intraday bulls defending the critical psychological pivot at 1.3500.
• The Bullish Scenario requires a sustained hourly close above 1.3584 to target 1.3650, while a break below 1.3500 would signal a deeper corrective phase.

Most Read: Chart alert: Nikkei 225’s bullish reversal extends towards new all-time highs

GBP/USD has enjoyed a stellar run of late, capitalizing on a weakening US Dollar and a shift in global risk sentiment. However, as we move into the tail end of the week, "Cable" is finding the air a bit thin near the 1.3600 handle, setting the stage for a battle between trend followers and mean-reversion traders.

The daily timeframe provides the most compelling evidence of a medium-term trend shift. After months of being capped by a persistent descending trendline (dark navy), GBP/USD staged a clean breakout in early April.

Crucially, the pair has successfully reclaimed its 100-day MA (blue) at 1.3444 and its 200-day MA (black) at 1.3413. This "double reclaim" of the major moving averages suggests that the macro bias has shifted from "sell the rallies" to "buy the dips." Currently, the pair is eyeing the next major structural hurdle at 1.3696, which represents a significant historical resistance zone.

The Daily RSI is at 62.7, indicating healthy bullish momentum with plenty of runway before hitting the overbought 70.0 threshold.

GBP/USD Daily Chart, April 16, 2026

Moving down to the H4 chart, the impulsive nature of the current rally is clear. The pair surged through the 1.3500 psychological level, which had previously acted as a formidable ceiling.

What is particularly encouraging for bulls is the "retest and depart" behavior seen around the 1.3500 mark. The H4 RSI (currently at 65.7) recently flagged a "BEAR" pivot, leading to a minor cooling-off period.

However, as long as the price remains comfortably above the 1.3378 structural support and the ascending moving averages, the intraday path of least resistance remains to the upside.

GBP/USD Four-Hour Chart, April 16, 2026

The hourly chart shows Cable currently consolidating in a tight range between 1.3560 and 1.3585. The 100-MA (blue) on this timeframe is providing immediate dynamic support at 1.3509.

The Bullish Scenario

For the rally to extend in the upcoming session, we need to see a sustained hourly close above the 1.3584 resistance level (the purple line). A successful breach here would likely see a quick test of the 1.3600 psychological barrier, with the door then opening for a move toward 1.3650. Bulls should look for high-volume candles on the breakout to confirm the move isn't a "bull trap."

The Bearish Scenario

The bearish case rests on the potential for a "double top" or exhaustion near 1.3585. If the pair fails to clear this hurdle and slips below 1.3540, we could see a deeper retracement toward the 1.3500 pivot. This area aligns with the 100-period SMA on the H1, making it a critical "line in the sand" for intraday bulls. A break below 1.3500 would signal a broader corrective phase toward 1.3422.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 1.3584, 1.3600, 1.3696
• Support: 1.3500, 1.3444 (Daily 100-MA), 1.3378

GBP/USD One-Hour Chart, April 16, 2026

GBP/USD is clearly the "pro-cyclical" choice at the moment, benefitting from the broader USD retreat. While short-term overextension is a risk, the daily structural breakout suggests that any near-term weakness should be viewed as an opportunity for bulls to reload.

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Ceasefire optimism driving rebound: Improving prospects of a US–Iran ceasefire and reduced escalation risks have lifted sentiment, fuelling a strong recovery in the Nikkei 225 despite lingering stagflation concerns.
• Macro support from JGB yield curve steepening: Bullish steepening in Japan’s yield curve signals easing growth fears and has historically moved in tandem with equities, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the Nikkei.
• Uptrend gaining momentum near record highs: The index has rallied ~18% from late-March lows and is approaching all-time highs, with further upside likely if key support holds, while a break below support may trigger a short-term pullback.

The current US-Iran ceasefire optimism, which is now translating into a higher chance of a peace deal, has ignited the bulls in the Japanese stock market despite the ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz that hinders global oil supply, which, in turn, may rouse stagflation risk.

The failure of the negotiation talks between the US and Iran over the last weekend did not lead to a further escalation of attacks by both sides, but rather some form of compromise to find a “middle ground” as the US and Iran are considering extending the earlier ceasefire deadline agreement, due on next Tuesday, 21 April, by another two weeks, and to allow make time to set up another round of negotiation talk before 21 April.

Since the start of the US-Iran war, the Nikkei 225 has declined by 13% from the 27 February 2026 high towards a low of 50,395 printed on 30 March 2026 while holding above its key 200-day moving average at around 48,250.

In the past five trading sessions, the losses have been trimmed, and the Nikkei 225 has now recorded a marginal loss of 1.2% measured from 27 February 2026 to 15 April 2026 (see Fig. 1).

Since last Monday, 6 April 2026, the shorter-term (2-year) Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has declined at a faster pace (6 basis points) versus a drop of 4 bps seen the 10-year JGB yield.

Therefore, a bull steepening has occurred on the yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year JGBs that led to trade higher above its key 200-day moving average, acting as a support at 0.84%, to a 15-year high at 1.05% at this time of writing.

A further continuation of a bullish steepening seen in the JGB yield curve is likely to support a further bullish impulse up move sequence in the Nikkei 225, as both move in direct lockstep since June 2022 (see Fig. 2).

Let’s now focus on the technical factors to determine Nikkei 225’s potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days).

The ongoing 18% rally seen from the 31 March 2026 low on the Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) is now fast approaching an intermediate resistance of 59,890/60,075 (also the current all-time high printed on 26 February 2026).

Watch the 57,830/57,274 short-term pivotal support to maintain the bullish momentum for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 60,832 and 62,044 (Fibonacci extension clusters) in the first step (see Fig. 3).

On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 57,274 invalidates the bullish bias for a minor corrective decline within an uptrend phase to expose the next intermediate support at 55,695 (also the 50-day moving average), and below it may see 55,130/54,600 next (also the 20-day moving average)

• Price actions are trading above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator hit an overbought reading without a bearish divergence condition.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 15

Stock Markets are officially going parabolic in a most surprising and confusing explosion.

Defying global headwinds and geopolitical anxiety, Wall Street is charging into uncharted territory, leaving all types of investors lagging far behind.

In a breathtaking 15% extension, the S&P 500 has surged past the 7,000 level for the first time since January, actively carving out new all-time highs.

Not wanting to be left out of the party, the Nasdaq is joining the rampage, sitting just a few points away from its own October record.

This ecstatic price action is heavily driven by shifting diplomatic narratives and massive short-squeezes.

Adding to the bullish confidence, Scott Bessent delivered a speech today maintaining the view that private credit stress will not develop into a systemic event – While the market cheered the reassurance, some traders couldn’t help but be reminded of Ben Bernanke’s infamous "subprime is contained" comments back in 2007.

The fundamental reality, however, is that this entire run is built on a still uncertain foundation.

The current market ecstasy will be completely contingent on tomorrow's restarting US-Iran diplomatic talks in Pakistan.

The prediction markets still show only a 37% chance of a peace deal by April 30, and crude oil remains uncomfortably steady above $90 as the Strait of Hormuz remains under US Blockade.

This geopolitical dynamic will essentially hold markets hostage: If tomorrow's talks break down, this historic, surprising run could quickly evaporate into a painful bear trap.

Keep a close eye on the headlines.

Read More:

• S&P 500 to 7,000 & Nasdaq 100 points to ATH – Are Markets getting ahead of themselves?
• Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Bitcoin battles 75k resistance as bulls eye further gains
• On track to all-time highs? Ceasefire may extend – North American Mid-Week Market Update

The Stock Market picture is continues to show outperformance from the Tech Services Mega Caps while defensive stocks lag behind.

Microsoft and Tesla are the leaders of this enormous bull run, respectively closing up 4.56% and 7.84%.

Tomorrow's Stock Market action will definitely be exciting.

Tomorrow's key earnings will look at TSM, BNY, Netflix and Pepsico.

The final reports for financials are underway, but these pale in importance compared to the huge Mega cap numbers releasing next week.

What a run in Tech-linked assets!

Cryptos and Nasdaq continue to push higher (despite some end-session profit-taking in the former) and keep outperforming the other asset classes.

Metals and Safe-Havens are not able to withstand the euphoric sentiment – An important test will be coming after them in tomorrow's session.

FX movement remains quite muted, but the Aussie Dollar is doing its own thing, elevating above its Currency counterparts ever since the Ceasefire started.

As a risk currency, it will also face an important test with tomorrow's US-Iran talks.

The next 24 hours will prove to be an important test for Markets, with once again a fleet of Central Bank speeches – The most important one will be from Fed's Williams (8:35 A.M ET).

Some key releases are coming up for Australia (Employment), Chinese & UK GDP to conclude with European CPI figures.

As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations, with the negotiations starting again tomorrow.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• With US fighter jets on the sideline, US Stock Benchmarks are experiencing a sonic boom
• The resumption of talks is supposed to take place tomorrow, and traders don't seem to wonder if they are getting ahead of themselves
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

After remaining close to unchanged in the beginning of the session, Stock Markets got off to the burners.

With no pity for whoever remained short of the war, bulls are leading an absolute rampage, which has now taken two out of the three major US Benchmarks just a few points short of their all-time highs.

Traders are still repricing the immense progress in the geopolitical situation, and, from what it seems, the narrative has shifted from global recessions and rate hikes due to oil supply shortages to the US outperforming everybody else yet again.

The end of the Middle Eastern war is certainly good news. With U.S. crude oil orders projected to reach record highs next month, and the Strait of Hormuz still in a deadlock, it makes sense for Wall Street to be excited.

Nonetheless, this rally seems to be surpassing everyone's expectations, and not surprisingly, given that a proper peace deal still hasn't been drawn up. At least, the Fintwit arena seems to be lagging behind the move.

A second round of US-Iran negotiations is supposed to take place on Thursday, and with Stock Markets only focusing on President Trump's words, the one thing they are salivating over is his obsession with reaching a deal illico presto.

The Prediction-Markets-based odds for a peace deal by April 30 remain unchanged from yesterday (~37%).

WTI, on the other hand, is holding steady just above $90 as Energy traders remain more skeptical of the potential for a diplomatic solution.

As long as Hormuz remains stuck, the situation for Oil prices doesn't change, and the US wins, with a large number of empty tankers now heading to the Gulf of "America" to make Black Gold flow again.

In other news, the Beige Book was just released, and the economic situation that seemed to worsen since October really now seems to be a mere correction, with 8 out of 12 districts reporting modest growth despite the huge raises in Energy prices.

The details are showing a bit more internal weakness, but in terms of Macroeconomic trend, the activity is just slightly tilting upwards – Enough for Stock Markets to keep up their ecstatic advances.

You can get access to the full Beige Book report right here.

Will the huge advances continue? As the Dow Jones actually pulls back, the rally isn't as widespread as it seems, and the more tech-focused Nasdaq and S&P 500 are benefiting from large advances in Mega Caps.

The S&P 500 is now breaking its all-time highs, trading above 7,000 for the first time since January, while the Nasdaq is only a few points away from its October record.

The most pessimistic traders are hoping to see a case of buying the rumor, selling the news, something that could be interesting, but fading such bullish candles could be quite dangerous.

Let's look at intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Bitcoin battles 75k resistance as bulls eye further gains
• On track to all-time highs? Ceasefire may extend – North American Mid-Week Market Update
• EUR/USD: A look at the 1.1800 battle and key support levels

The Market really is pushing higher from the pursued extension from Mega Caps, with Microsoft pushing higher by 5.80%, Tesla up 7.40% and the general Technology Services sub-sector shining bright.

On the other hand, the more defensive Manufacturing sectors are taking a generalized hit along with Utilities and Healthcare.

The Dow is now lagging its peers quite remarkably, struggling from intra-market sector dynamics, failing to surpass its previous session highs.

Once again, the DJIA remains the Index to trade for those tracking live sentiment as the younger benchmarks tend to see exaggeration on Tech movement.

Looking at the price action, Dow Bulls are officially waiting for further news.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Mini-resistance 48,700
• Major Resistance – 49,000 to 49,200
• 49,500 psychological mini-resistance
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Daily Range Highs

Support Levels

• Momentum Pivot 48,300 (bull above)
• Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Bearish below)
• Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600
• War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)
• January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280

Nasdaq is up close to 15% in a quite insane price action, closing in by the minute to the its October all-time highs.

The CFD record is at 26,280, while the actual Index record is at 26,182 (only 20 points from here).

It wouldn't be surprising to see the record break after such a significant run, but traders could also see high volatility in case the talks fail.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• All-time high resistance 26,200 to 26,300 (testing)
• October all-time highs 26,283
• Potential resistance 26,600 to 26,750

Support Levels

• Momentum Pivot 25,700 to 25,850
• 25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range Pivotal support
• Support 25,000 to 25,250
• 24,450 to 24,550 Key Support

The S&P 500 is officially going parabolic, breaking its January all-time high with ease and aims to officially continue its price discovery.

Similarly as Nasdaq, the rally shall continue if the ceasefire talks tomorrow maintain the hopes for a proper peace deal.

Look at 7,050 - 7,060 for some mild profit-taking in that scenario

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• ATH Resistance and Range Highs from 7,000 to 7,020 (broken)
• Daily Highs 7,027
• Next key potential resistance 7,060 to 7,080

Support Levels

• December ATH Pivot 6,945 to 6,975 (testing)
• Support 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,680 to 6,700 Key Support
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
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• Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently battling resistance at the psychological 75000 level
• A clean close above 75000 is required for the bullish scenario to continue the rally toward targets at 76400 and 78197
• The bearish scenario is triggered if Bitcoin fails to hold the 50 MA (H1) at 74004, potentially leading to a drop to the 71673 support level

Most Read: EUR/USD: A look at the 1.1800 battle and key support levels

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently locked in a tug-of-war at the psychological 75000 handle. After a volatile start to the month, the premier cryptocurrency has carved out a clear recovery path, though the technical indicators suggest the journey higher may require a brief pitstop.

The daily timeframe paints a picture of a successful trend reversal. After enduring a period of downward pressure characterized by a descending channel, BTC has staged a convincing breakout.

Key technical highlights on the daily:

• The MA Cluster: Bitcoin has decisively reclaimed the 50-day MA (blue) at 69679 and the 200-day MA (black) at 87339 remains a long-term target. More importantly, it is currently testing the 100-day MA (yellow) at 74924 as immediate resistance.
• Support Base: The 70000 level has now transitioned from a daunting ceiling to a significant floor.
• RSI Momentum: The Daily RSI is sitting at 60, suggesting that while the trend is bullish, Bitcoin is far from "overheated", leaving the door open for a run toward the 78197 and 82133 levels.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart, April 15, 2026

On the H4 chart, we can see the aggressive nature of the recent leg up. The pair surged from the 68000 zone, slicing through the 71673 level with significant volume.

However, price action has stalled over the last 24 hours just shy of the 75000 mark. We are seeing a series of "BEAR" labels on the RSI, which is currently at 57.

This cooling of momentum suggests that the market is waiting for a fresh fundamental catalyst or a period of consolidation before attempting to breach the year-to-date highs. The 50 MA (blue line) on the H4 is trending sharply upward, currently providing dynamic support at 72226.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 15, 2026

The hourly chart reveals the intraday sensitivity of Bitcoin as it trades within a narrowing range. Currently at 73918, the immediate direction will likely be determined by how price reacts to the ascending 50-day MA (blue) on this timeframe.

The Bullish Scenario

For a continuation of the rally, bulls need to defend the 73500 area. A clean hourly close above 75000 would likely trigger a wave of FOMO (fear of missing out), potentially catapulting the pair toward the next liquidity pocket at 76400 and eventually 78197.

The Bearish Scenario

The recurring "BEAR" pivot warnings on the H1 RSI cannot be ignored. If Bitcoin fails to hold the 50 MA (H1) at 74004, we could see a quick "flush" down to the 71673 support level. This would be a standard mean-reversion move to shake out late-entry long positions before a potential secondary attempt at the highs.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 75000, 76400, 78197
• Support: 73500, 71673, 70000

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 15, 2026

Bitcoin is in a "prove it" phase. While the macro structure is firmly bullish following the daily breakout, the 75000 level is proving to be a tough nut to crack. Patience may be the best tool for traders here looking for entries on a confirmed breakout or a deeper retest of support.

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global Markets
• Markets are taking a break ahead of the resuming of US-Iran talks tomorrow, with mediators pushing for a ceasefire extension
• Stock Markets are on track to recover to all-time highs with euphoric Markets

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.

Markets continue their euphoric ascension with both parties reportedly eager to pursue talks.

Traders really seem to have a sixth sense for turning points in the narrative, with Stock Market buyers ruthlessly bidding prices back up to right around pre-war highs.

Cautious analysis could warn of a potential for ecstatic behavior, particularly when no peace deal has yet been properly drawn out.

After a chaotic first round of negotiations over the weekend, anxiety rose, but that did not last long, with President Trump repeatedly reassuring that "[Iran] sent the right people and they want to make a deal." The Nuclear issue, a particular subject of contention, is now in line for the coming resumption of discussions on Thursday.

Meanwhile, with direct Israel-Lebanon talks also officially underway – the first since 1993 – peace in the Middle East seems closer by the day.

The reality could be a bit more chaotic than what Participants are pricing, but all they wanted to see was a war that doesn't escalate any further (and with fears of a ground operation just three weeks ago, this is pretty decent progress).

The latest news from the Associated Press reported that the mediators are now looking to extend the Ceasefire, set to expire next Tuesday, April 22.

Furthermore, even Energy commodity traders are now attempting to turn the page on this heavy chapter, with the escalation premium now fully erased.

As a result, only a ~$20 supply drought premium remains, which should only be erased if and when a deal is reached.

On the Macroeconomic side, the US reported a less hot-than-expected PPI report, which began to show a turn in demand-side inflation, with only heavy supply, energy-linked inflation hurting prospects.

After all, IEEPA tariffs got banned by the US Supreme Court, which quickly took out a few percentage points from the data – the nastier side of it is the fact that oil-led inflation can affect inflation in a 3 to 6 month span as businesses initially absorb the lower margins before passing them on to consumers (when looking at prior energy crises).

On the northern border, Canada just reported an important rebound in Manufacturing sales, up 3.6% (slightly missing the 3.8% estimate), erasing the -3% loss from January.

This continues to show how sideways North American economies have evolved in recent times, with Employment for both the US and Canada continuously wiggling and economic indicators slowing and bouncing again.

Policymakers will surely wait to see the effects of the war on consumption and inflation before moving the needle.

Kevin Warsh's hearing is now expected next week, after being delayed by Jerome Powell's court case – Trump had some words on the issue this morning (and, as per usual, they were not the sweetest).

Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap.

Read More:

• FX levels for EUR/USD, USD/CAD & GBP/USD – USD dumps amid peace repricing
• The joy persists for Markets – North American Session Market Wrap for April 14
• Stocks continue their peace (hopes) rally, Producer Inflation (PPI) misses! – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook

Global Equities continue their sensational rebound, largely led by Japanese and US Stocks (with the US Dollar and Japanese Yen also weakening severely to add fuel to their respective Markets).

The Dollar Index continues its long-term rangebound trajectory, rejecting the 100.00 resistance for the fourth time since July 2025 and now finding intermediate support at the key 98.00 level.

Traders are waiting to hear more from the continued negotiations before making their next moves – To get ready for the next phase for the US Dollar, I invite you to check out our recent FX analysis.

Levels to place on your DXY charts:

Resistance Levels

• 98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot
• 99.40 to 99.50 Resistance
• 100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highs
• War Highs 100.544 (Double Top)

Support Levels

• 98.00 Major Support (testing)
• Support 97.40 to 97.60
• 2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00

The US Dollar has puked against most FX Majors in the past week and particularly more against the Australian and Kiwi Dollars – Both relieved from the lower tensions and less aggravating Energy supply fears.

The regional trends in FX seen in 2025 persist again, and this also allowed the basket of EU currencies to continue to outperform (~ +2%) the US Dollar.

For those who haven't seen our past week's edition, this is a seasonal performance chart for the US Dollar. April is its weakest month of the year, so that itself could weigh even more on the Greenback.

The next move will be contingent on proper progress in US-Iran talks.

The Loonie has once again given up a decent part of its progress against major currencies but this effect is much less exaggerated than what is observed in the US Dollar.

The Loonie is actually attempting a bounce from recent lows against its peers, supported by the better Manufacturing data and widening order book for its Petrol exports.

Keep a close eye on the CAD in the coming week.

USD/CAD continues to correct within its large range, having broken the key momentum 1.38 pivot.

Now evolving within an intermediate bear-channel, traders will be looking at the key 1.3750 Support to see whether it holds or breaks.

Levels of interest for USD/CAD Trading

Resistance Levels

• 1.38 Pivot +/- 150 pips
• 1.3850 Resistance
• 1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance
• 1.3950 Range Highs

Support Levels

• 1.3750 Pivotal Support
• 1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support
• 1.35 Key Psychological Support

The North American calendar is somewhat calmer until next Wednesday. The Canadian Dollar will face an important test on Monday with CA Inflation releasing at 8:30 A.M.

With Middle East developments easing, keep a close eye on Ceasefire news and Oil!

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The technical picture has turned "decidedly optimistic" as EUR/USD has reclaimed its 50, 100, and 200-day Moving Averages (MAs).
• Momentum oscillators on the H4 chart, with RSI at 70.5, suggest the move is overextended.
• Bulls must secure an hourly close above the 1.1800 psychological level to maintain control.
• If the pair fails at 1.1800 and slips below the intraday pivot at 1.1780, it could lead to a correction toward the 1.1750 zone.

Most Read: Silver (XAG/USD) at a Crossroads: Bullish breakout meets overbought momentum

EUR/USD finds itself at another crossroad after recent developments have seen the pair test a multi year pivot level of 1.1450. Since then EUR/USD has attempted to grind its way higher but further upside is facing a few hurdles.

Looking at the daily timeframe, the technical picture has shifted from cautiously bearish to decidedly optimistic. After finding significant demand at the Multi-Year Pivot near 1.1450, the pair has embarked on a sustained rally.

The most significant development on the daily chart is the price action surrounding the MA cluster. EUR/USD has managed to reclaim the 50, 100, and 200-day Moving Averages (MAs), which are currently converging around the 1.1670 - 1.1690 zone (highlighted by the red box). This area now shifts from a major resistance ceiling to a foundational support floor.

With the RSI currently at 64.4, there is still space before reaching extreme overbought conditions, suggesting that the path of least resistance remains to the upside toward the 1.1867 resistance level.

EUR/USD Daily Chart, April 15, 2026

On the H4 timeframe, the "Golden Cross" and the steep ascending slope of the 50 MA (purple line) underscore the strength of the recent move. The pair recently sliced through the 1.1721 and 1.1769 horizontal hurdles with relative ease.

However, a note of caution is warranted. The RSI on the H4 is currently printing at 70.5, having recently flagged several "BEAR" pivot warnings. This indicates that while the trend is bullish, the move is becoming overextended in the short term.

We often see a period of consolidation or a "retest" of previous breakout levels when the H4 RSI hits these extremes, which could see the pair gravitate back toward 1.1769 before the next leg higher.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart, April 15, 2026

The hourly chart provides a clear roadmap for the day ahead. Price action is currently consolidating just below the 1.1800 handle, which will be the primary battleground for the European session.

The Bullish Scenario

For the bulls to maintain control, we need to see a clean hourly close above the 1.1800 psychological level. If buying pressure persists, the next logical target is the 1.1867 area. Traders should watch for a "bull flag" formation on the H1; as long as the pair holds above the 1.1769 support, the intraday bias remains firmly long.

The Bearish Scenario

The bearish case relies on the RSI divergence and the "BEAR" labels currently populating the H1 peaks. If EUR/USD fails to clear 1.1800 and slips below the intraday pivot at 1.1780, we could see a move toward the 1.1750 zone, where the 50 MA (H1) is currently rising to meet price.

A deeper correction toward the 1.1726 level cannot be ruled out if the US Dollar finds a haven bid during the session.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 1.1800, 1.1867, 1.2000
• Support: 1.1769, 1.1726, 1.1696 (Major)

EUR/USD One-Hour Chart, April 15, 2026

EUR/USD is enjoying a "bullish honeymoon" after reclaiming its major daily moving averages. While the H4 and H1 oscillators suggest a temporary breather might be healthy, the structural breakout suggests that dips are likely to be bought.

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 14

Traders have been ecstatic in the past two weeks amid a large repricing for peace in the Middle East, a very positive development for the world and Markets in general.

Stock Markets have now bounced about 10% on average worldwide, undoing most, if not all, of the losses incurred at the start of the War.

Some could think this is crazy, and they wouldn't be entirely wrong – Any failure of the talks could prove catastrophic in an ever-so-optimistic Market.

But Markets are also forward-looking, hence, Participants are already fantasizing about a longer-run return to world peace as the Trump Administration continues to serve TACOs and nothing really ever changes.

At least, WTI Crude has decided to move in the right direction, breaking a significant $93 support level and decisively looking to pull back from its elevated war prices.

Remaining below $100 should continue to maintain a positive Market sentiment.

Participants will have to keep an eye on the bigger picture.

It all starts with the Strait of Hormuz: If Tankers can normally flow throughout the area without being threatened by drone attacks, Crude prices should continue to tumble ($70 per barrel seems like a decent target as Supply routes will still have to be rebuilt).

However, if talks turn into a standstill, it will be difficult to justify all-times in Stock Markets while Commodity prices remain at 2-year highs and inflation prospects remain elevated.

On the Ceasefire, things really seem to be moving the right way. The first Israel-Lebanon direct talks since 1993 have officially begun at the US Department of State – A mandatory condition for Iran to participate.

The US has been seemingly more eager to move forward, but they just issued their recent demands: A full-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a full authority from the IRGC during talks (in order to minimize extremism from compromising the talks).

The talks are expected on Thursday and will have to lead to concrete progress to maintain the elation seen around Markets:

Stock Markets and Cryptos are bouncing like never before, the US Dollar is crumbling and other FX currencies are feasting. Metals are also rebounding but remain stuck in a bizarre price action, with the most risk-prone metals rallying (Copper and Silver).

Read More:

• FX levels for EUR/USD, USD/CAD & GBP/USD – USD dumps amid peace repricing
• Stocks continue their peace (hopes) rally, Producer Inflation (PPI) misses! – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook
• Silver (XAG/USD) at a Crossroads: Bullish breakout meets overbought momentum

The Stock Market picture is thoroughly positive in today's action, with Mega Caps leading the gains (NVDA, MSFT, TSLA, AMZN, META), helping to push for an outperformance from US Benchmarks.

On the other hand, the Energy/Minerals sector is struggling, unsurprisingly when looking at the daily change in Crude Oil.

The earnings season has officially begun, hence some local stocks are subject to their own struggles and successes.

Some earnings for large cap financials continue, hence the sector should continue to see elevated breadth of action.

Keep an eye on Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and ASML.

The Market rallies are sensational, with broad asset classes ecstatic from yet another 6% drop in Crude Oil prices.

Silver and Copper remain the best performers in this ongoing local rebound in the Metals asset class.

Equity Markets are doing their own pieces of work, rallying across the globe.

Most of the rebounds have been unfolding already and these assets are now at key crossroads and levels, hence make sure to see further progress in Crude prices to maintain a fully bullish view.

FX movement seems to have now concluded their first wave of rallies against the Greenback, profiting from the smoother fundamentals.

From now on, as for other assets, continuation will be heavily contingent on further corrections in Crude Oil (and the US Dollar, naturally).

Tomorrow's session will be heavily focused on streaks of Central Bank speeches with the IMF Meeting ongoing until the end of the week.

Euro traders will want to keep an eye on Christine Lagarde's speech, beginning promptly.

For the rest, as always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar may have just seen its brightest days at the cost of a world-shaking US-Iran-Israel conflict.

Having bullied through a gigantic rebound since February, the Greenback had been invincible. Petrodollar trades and higher-for-longer US rates tend to largely support the global reserve currency.

Add to it historic bearish positioning against it, and traders saw the perfect conditions to push the USD to 11-month highs.

This was enough to question whether dedollarization was just a fantasy, rather than a proper regime change in Financial Markets.

Nevertheless, things changed in the past couple of weeks. President Trump, frustrated by developments such as lower stock markets, higher commodity prices, and a more expensive dollar—economic trends he publicly dislikes—found himself in a pessimistic mood right ahead of the November midterm elections.

Hence, the Administration has been pushing aggressively for a truce, specifically because this aligns with the prolonged mid-April deadline for the conflict to end.

While a proper peace deal hasn't yet been reached, diplomatic attempts are, for now, heading the right way, leading to a consequent tumble in the US Dollar.

You can see the direct result from today's FX performance.

The US Dollar lost around 2% of its value against a basket of major currencies and has begun to revert to its trajectory.

Reaching a key support level, however, Currency traders could be taking a break from their dollar sales. We will explore key levels right after taking a quick look at the Dollar Index chart.

Stalling at the major 98.00 Support, the US Dollar could be seeing a short-term pause in its selling; hence, it is important not to get caught in the crosswinds of a potential reversal.

However, this could provide opportunities to catch a pullback in the currency and offer decent setups in major FX pairs!

In preparation for the next phase of a longer-run dollar selloff (conditional on the conflict really coming to an end), we will look at three key FX Majors and their intraday timeframes to see how the range in the Dollar Index affects their own currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/CAD.

Read More:

• Stocks continue their peace (hopes) rally, Producer Inflation (PPI) misses! – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook
• Silver (XAG/USD) at a Crossroads: Bullish breakout meets overbought momentum
• Critical Crossroads: USD/CHF tests key support at 0.78285. Is a bounce to 0.7900 up next?
• AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Bulls regain control as key psychological level holds

EUR/USD quickly profited from the truce to rally 2,000 to 1.18.

However, meeting a significant resistance zone and overbought RSI conditions, the odds for upside continuation from here a slim (on the short-run).

In such conditions, buying on a pullback makes the most sense.

• Aggressive buyers could look at 1.1750 for entries (less optimal)
• The best setup would be located at the 1.17 to 1.1720 March Pivot
  • This would require the peace process to keep progressing.
• Aggressive sellers could look to enter at current levels and will want to see a break below 1.17 to add to their positions (in the event of worsening fundamentals)

Levels of interest for EUR/USD Trading

Resistance levels

• Resistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)
• 1.1850 - 1.1860 Resistance
• Morning highs 1.18114
• Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 Zone

Support levels

• 1.17 to 1.1720 March Pivot
• Pivotal Support 1.1625 - 1.1635
• 1.1540 to 1.1570 War Support
• War and August 2025 Lows 1.14

USD/CAD had taken quite a lead on its reversal from the higher-part of its 1.3550 to 1.3950 range.

Finding buyers at the 1.3750 Pivotal support, the pair already begun its pullback, hence it could be wise to wait for a retest of the higher bound of the 1.38 pivot zone and bear channel (1.3810) to enter shorts.

Coming back above the 4H 50-period MA (1.3862) would put back the advantage to the bulls.

Levels of interest for USD/CAD Trading

Resistance Levels

• 1.38 Pivot +/- 150 pips
• 1.3850 Resistance
• 1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance
• 1.3950 Range Highs

Support Levels

• 1.3750 Pivotal Support
• 1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support
• 1.35 Key Psychological Support

The Pound is under similar conditions as the Euro but grabs the upper hand in terms of strength and momentum against the US Dollar.

GBP/USD is reaching overbought conditions and could see a decent support retest in coming times after extending without pullbacks.

Aggressive buyers will look at the 1.3500 psychological level to catch a wider rally in the pair.

More defensive pullback traders will have to wait for a retest of the key pivot, which would only be reached if the tone sours ahead of Thursday's US-Iran talks.

Levels of interest for GBP/USD Trading

Resistance levels

• December Resistance 1.36 (testing)
• Resistance 1.37 zone
• 2025 Resistance around 1.38
• 1.3850 to 1.39 2021 Resistance

Support levels

• 1.35 minor support
• Key Pivot and Support 1.34 to 1.3440
• Pivotal Support 1.3250 - 1.33
• 1.32 War Support

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US Stock Benchmarks continue their previous session's mid-day rally as Iran situation slowly clears
• Crude Oil corrects another 5% and diplomatic attempts maintain high hopes for peace
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

Markets continue to price in the peace rally, which could be slowly turning from fantasy to reality.

Uncertainty and war go hand in hand, and between talks and realities, discrepancies in narrative can create consequent Market confusion.

However, as we have seen during this war, Stock Markets tend to react strongly, with even limited positive developments serving as catalysts for significant movement.

As President Trump foreshadowed the reopening of negotiation channels between the US and Iran close to two weeks ago, Markets began a frantic 8%-10% rally from their recent lows and have barely looked back since.

The trade naturally escalated when a Ceasefire was reached right before a large ultimatum for major escalation in the War. The Ceasefire itself is quite weak and provides few guidelines on what could lead to a longer-term peace process, but it definitely took the tone out of potential escalation.

Participants wanted to see results, and while the world awaits further news, at least, the situation is pointing in the right direction with Iran reportedly opening the discussion on Nuclear enrichment and Israel/Lebanon direct talks beginning this morning (a first since 1993).

This is a much better situation than what the initial weekend news had reported.

The Strait of Hormuz remains at a standstill amid the new US Blockade. Iran also decided to stall its movement to move forward with the talks. Markets naturally took it a step further. They allowed some of the war premium in WTI to be unwound (down 5% to $93) and pumped stocks further.

The Prediction-Markets-based odds for a proper peace deal by April 30 are back at pre-weekend highs (~35%).

Add to the slowly confirming stance towards peace with a large miss in March PPI (Producer Price Index, which leads CPI Inflation), and Markets saw quite a few elements for bulls to come back hungry in the morning action.

The headline number came in hot at 4% (not good), but much better than the 4.6% expectations. The Core (eliminating Energy and Food prices) release took 0.2% from the headline number.

With demand-led inflation slowly abating, despite the large numbers, the Fed could slowly ease some anxiety. Nevertheless, they will have to see prices at the pump decidedly retreating before they can let off the pressure. Their incoming speeches will have to be tracked closely.

Markets are now looking ready for peace, so they will hold high expectations to the talks that will take place on Thursday.

Let's look at intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Silver (XAG/USD) at a Crossroads: Bullish breakout meets overbought momentum
• Critical Crossroads: USD/CHF tests key support at 0.78285. Is a bounce to 0.7900 up next?
• WTI (Oil) drops back below $100 after US-Iran talks set to resume – Oil Dynamics and Intraday Analysis

The Market is now broadly flashing green, with Mega Caps leading to the upside during an ongoing huge rebound.

Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Tesla and Meta are pulling the entire Indexes to some fresh highs and profiting largely to the gigantic rebound in the Nasdaq, while Energy stocks are taking a hit (from lower Oil prices).

Despite some local laggards, the Market is largely moving in tandem.

While the rally is slower in the Dow Jones, it is for now less chaotic and much more progressive than the spikes that have been seen in the other major Indexes.

The DJIA is still evolving within its main upward channel since having broken out of its war downtrend, and aims to test the 48,700 - 48,800 resistance in coming times.

From there, reactions will be essential:

• Rejecting it could point to a retest of 48,000 (channel lows)
• Breaking above should flash to 49,000
  • Above this, the road to 50,000 should be short-lived.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Mini-resistance 48,700
• Major Resistance – 49,000 to 49,200
• 49,500 psychological mini-resistance
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Daily Range Highs

Support Levels

• Momentum Pivot 48,300 (bull above)
• Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Bearish below)
• Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600
• War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)
• January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280

Nasdaq has largely beaten any expectations or predictions in its gigantic war-rebound, up 12% and breaking all sorts of resistances since.

Now testing the 25,700 to 25,850 resistance, the momentum is nearing overbought soon but with the pace of the buying, only bearish news around the talks could stop the bull train to all-time highs.

To learn more, check out our in-depth Nasdaq Analysis (watch out for CFD/Composite price differentials):

Read More: Technical levels to watch as Nasdaq 100 approaches all-time highs

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Major resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (testing)
• February Highs 25,934
• 26,000 psychological resistance (+/- 50 points)
• All-time high resistance 26,200 to 26,300

Support Levels

• 25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range Intraday Pivot
• Pivotal Support 25,000 to 25,250
• 24,450 to 24,550 Key Support
• Major 2026 Pivotal Support 23,800 to 24,000
• August 2025 Support 23,500 to 23,650
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

Similarly to Nasdaq, the S&P 500 is dominating the charts and breaking all types of resistance.

The Index is currently testing its major December All-Time High level (6,970). As it also evolves in a bull channel, it will be interesting to see if bulls can manage a push above, however, if Oil fails to break $93, it will be difficult to assume so.

In that event, look for a retest of 6,900 for dip-buying (if the situation doesn't worsen!)

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• December ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975 (testing)
• ATH Resistance and Range Highs from 7,000 to 7,020
• Next key potential resistance 7,060 to 7,080

Support Levels

• Key Pivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,680 to 6,700 Key Support
• 6,580 to 6,610 Support
• 6,490 to 6,520 October lows
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
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• The Nasdaq 100 has completed a "V-shaped" recovery after the recent sellof.
• The overall trend is clearly bullish across all major timeframes, with the index currently trading above the key 25,320 resistance-turned-support level.
• The RSI is signaling overbought conditions on the Daily, H4, and M15 charts, which suggests that immediate upside momentum may be slowing and consolidation or a minor "retest" is likely.

Read More: Silver (XAG/USD) at a Crossroads: Bullish breakout meets overbought momentum

The Nasdaq 100 has undergone a massive rally. After a period of aggressive selling that saw the index dip toward the 22,800 handle, we have seen a textbook "V-shaped" recovery.

The most notable development is the breakout from the descending channel (highlighted by the dark trendlines). This breakout was confirmed with a strong impulsive candle that cleared both the 100-day (red) and 200-day (yellow) Moving Averages (MAs).

Currently, the index is trading above the 25,320 resistance-turned-support level. The RSI on the daily is approaching overbought territory (65.5), but it still shows room for a final push toward the previous all-time highs near 26,200 before a meaningful correction is required.

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart, April 14, 2026

Moving down to the H4 and H1 timeframes, the bullish momentum is even more evident. The "Golden Cross" or proximity of the moving averages suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

H4 Perspective: The index has cleared the 25,091 level with ease. We see a series of higher highs and higher lows. The H4 RSI is currently at 74.1, indicating that while the trend is strong, we may see some intraday consolidation or a minor "retest" of the breakout zone at 25,320.

H1 Perspective: The hourly chart shows a steep ascending slope. The moving averages are perfectly fanned out in a bullish alignment. We are seeing some "Bear" divergence signals appearing on the RSI (red labels), which suggests that the immediate upside might be slowing down as we approach the US open.

Nasdaq 100 Four-Hour Chart, April 14, 2026

Let us take a look at the M15 ahead of the US session. The index is currently hovering around 25,526.

The Bullish Scenario

If the US session opens with strong buying pressure, look for a sustained hold above 25,500. A break and close above the most recent intraday high (25,560) would open the door for a move toward 25,750. The bulls will be emboldened as long as the price stays above the 20-period MA (Blue line) on this timeframe.

The Bearish Scenario

The RSI is currently signaling overbought conditions (71.0) with several "Bear" pivot markers. If we see a "fake-out" at the open, a move back below 25,480 could trigger a liquidation of intraday long positions. This would likely lead to a move back toward the 25,320 support level (the red horizontal line), which acted as a major ceiling previously.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 25,560, 25,750, 26,000
• Support: 25,320, 25,091, 24,667

Nasdaq 100 M15 Chart, April 14, 2026

The Nasdaq 100 is in a clear bullish cycle across all major timeframes. However, given the vertical nature of the recent move and the RSI levels, the risk-to-reward ratio for new longs at current market prices is less than ideal.

Traders would be wise to look for pullbacks to the 25,320 or 25,100 zones to join the trend, rather than chasing the breakout at these elevated levels.

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
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• Silver (XAG/USD) has broken above a multi-month bearish trendline.
• The short-term target for bulls is the psychological $80.00 level, with $75.00 confirmed as key support.
• Overbought momentum indicators on multiple timeframes suggest caution and patience for a pullback to support may be warranted.

The daily chart for Silver (XAG/USD) presents a fascinating technical battleground. After a period of significant volatility earlier in 2026, the price action has stabilized into a recovery phase that is now testing a major structural hurdle.

The Trendline Constraint: The primary focus on the daily is the long-term descending trendline (navy blue) originating from the highs of late January. Price is currently attempting a sustained breakout above this line, which has historically acted as a ceiling for upside momentum.

Moving Average Confluence: Silver is currently trading above its 200-day MA (yellow). However, the 100-day MA (purple) remains above current prices, with a daily candle close above a sign that the long-term bull trend remains very much intact.

Support and Resistance: The psychological level of $75.00 has shifted from resistance to support. To the upside, the next major target for bulls is the 80.00 handle, followed by the technical resistance zone at 82.16.

Momentum: The RSI is currently just above the 50 neutral level, suggesting that the bullish momentum may be returning.

Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart, April 14, 2026

Moving down to the H4 chart, the bullish narrative becomes more pronounced. We are seeing a classic stair-stepping pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

Breakout Confirmation: The H4 chart shows a decisive break above the 75.00 horizontal level. This area is now bolstered by the fact that price continues to hold above immeidate dynamic support provided by the 100-day MA.

SMA Alignment: The MAs on the H4 are beginning to tilt to the upside with the 200-day MA just resting above current prices. A break above this 200-day MA at 78.46 will reinforce the bullish narrative and bring 80.00 level and beyond into focus.

Indicator Outlook: The RSI on the H4 is holding steady near 59.55, indicating that there is still plenty of room for price appreciation before reaching extreme overbought conditions on this timeframe.

Silver (XAG/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 14, 2026

The H1 chart highlights a very clean intraday trend. The metal has spent the last several sessions grinding higher, guided by its short-term moving averages.

Immediate Support: The 75.35 level (100-day MA) is the immediate line in the sand for intraday traders. As long as price holds above this level, the "buy the dip" mentality remains the dominant play.

Price Targets: The immediate target is the 78.00 psychological level, with a clear path toward the $80.00 resistance if the current momentum persists.

Divergence Watch: While the price is making higher highs, the RSI is starting to show signs of exhaustion. This may lead to a minor retracement back toward the 75.00 - 75.50 zone before the next leg higher.

Silver (XAG/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 14, 2026

Silver is currently in a "Show Me" phase. The breakout above the daily descending trendline is a significant technical milestone, but it requires a daily close above 77.00 to confirm that the bears have truly lost control.

The Bullish Play: Bulls will be looking for a successful retest of the 75.00 area. If price can hold this level on a pullback, the next logical objective is the 80.00 psychological resistance. A break there opens the door for a move toward the 82.00 - 83.00 region.

The Bearish Play: For the bears to regain the upper hand, they need to force a "fakeout" scenario where price dives back below the descending trendline and the 75.00 support. A move back below 74.00 would invalidate the current bullish setup and suggest a return to the 70.00 support zone.

Key takeaway: The path of least resistance is currently to the upside, but with oscillators reaching overbought levels on multiple timeframes, patience for a "value entry" near support may be rewarded over chasing the current breakout.

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The overall bias for USD/CHF has turned decidedly bearish in the short to medium term following a significant rejection at the 0.80000 psychological handle.
• The pair is currently testing a critical support level at 0.78285, which is described as the "line in the sand" for bulls.
• Lower timeframes show extreme oversold readings on the RSI, hinting at a possible short-term corrective bounce toward resistance around 0.79000 before a potential continuation of the downside.

On the Daily chart, USD/CHF has faced a significant rejection at the 0.80000 psychological handle. This level has proven to be a formidable barrier, leading to a sharp reversal that has now brought the pair back down to a critical inflection point.

Trend Dynamics: The pair has been trending higher since early 2026, supported by an ascending trendline (dark navy). However, the recent price action shows a decisive break below the 200-day MA (yellow) and the 100-day MA (blue), signaling a shift in medium-term momentum.

Key Support/Resistance: We are currently testing the 0.78285 - 0.78344 support zone. This area aligns with previous structural pivots and is bolstered by the 200-day MA (black) sitting just above at 0.78279.

Indicator Outlook: The RSI is trending lower but has not yet reached oversold territory, suggesting there may be further room for the downside if the current support level fails to hold on a daily candle closing basis.

USD/CHF Daily Chart, April 13, 2026

The H4 chart provides a clearer view of the recent "waterfall" sell-off. The bearish momentum accelerated once the pair lost the confluence of the moving averages near the 0.79400 region.

Moving Averages: The 50, 100, and 200 MAs are now fanning out above the current price, acting as dynamic resistance. The Death Cross (50 MA crossing below the 100/200 MA) is about to take place as well.

Price Action: We see a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. The current candle is hovering right at the 0.78285 horizontal support. A sustained break here would likely target the ascending trendline from the daily chart, currently located around the 0.77200 area.

RSI: On this timeframe, the RSI is deep in oversold territory (~30.99), which could hint at a short-term corrective bounce or consolidation before the next leg lower.

USD/CHF Four-Hour Chart, April 13, 2026

The hourly chart highlights the sheer velocity of the move during the April 13th session. The pair dropped nearly 100 pips in a straight line without a significant retracement.

Current State: The price is "hugging" the bottom of the range at 0.78345. Note the RSI on the H1 is at 26.76, indicating extreme intraday exhaustion.

Tactical Levels: * Immediate Resistance: If we see a "mean reversion" play, the first hurdle is the 0.78932 (50 MA) followed by the 0.79000 level.

Support: The 0.78285 level remains the "line in the sand" for bulls on an intraday and larger timeframe basis..

USD/CHF One-Hour Chart, April 13, 2026

The overall bias for USD/CHF has turned decidedly bearish in the short to medium term following the failure at 0.80000.

Bullish Scenario: For the bulls to regain control, we need to see a strong rejection at the current 0.78285 support, followed by a daily close back above the cluster of moving averages at 0.79400.

Bearish Scenario: If the pair fails to hold 0.78285, the path of least resistance points toward the long-term ascending trendline near 0.77500 - 0.77200. Given the oversold RSI readings on the lower timeframes, a minor retracement to retest broken support (now resistance) at 0.79000 would offer a higher-probability entry for trend followers.

Key takeaway: Keep a close eye on the 0.78285 level; a daily candle close below this mark could trigger a fresh wave of selling toward the YTD lows.

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Oil drops below $100 as US-Iran talks are set to resume on Thursday
• After gapping higher to $105 at the globex open, anxiety shot up but the negotiations talks helped a significant correction back to $98.
• Traders have been looking for direction since
• Exploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity

Energy markets started the week with a violent whip-saw, reminding traders that the geopolitical risk premium is still the ultimate driver of price action.

The weekly session kicked off with a massive spike in anxiety after the initial failure of US-Iran talks around the weekend.

WTI Crude gapped aggressively higher at the Globex open, flashing up to the $105 handle as geopolitical uncertainty quickly set back.

This came particularly prominent from the fact that the Strait of Hormuz did not see any form of improvement in its flows since the truce came in effect last Tuesday.

However, that panic was short-lived.

Sentiment shifted violently on the news that the high-stakes US-Iran diplomatic talks are officially set to resume this Thursday after fears of a potential early end to the two-week ceasefire.

The prospect of renewed negotiations triggered a massive wave of profit-taking and short-selling, dragging the commodity in a significant correction straight back down to the $98 level.

Since that brutal retracement however, the market has hit a wall of indecision, with prices now stuck between $96 and $104 since last Thursday.

Traders are currently sitting on their hands, desperately looking for a clear sense of direction as they await Thursday's closed-door developments.

The fundamental picture is entirely hostage to the headlines, meaning the charts are more important than ever for mapping out risk.

With volatility now stalling, let's explore a few key charts and scenarios for WTI (US) Oil to prepare for potential breakout levels.

Read More:

• US Blockade on Hormuz begins! Wall Street withstands the pressure – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Outlook
• The war premium vs. The yield premium: Which force will seize control and drive Gold’s next move?
• AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Bulls regain control as key psychological level holds

Recent daily candles haven't shown anything but a cloudy picture, with numbers of daily up and down gaps, and hesitation inside candles in between (implying dead momentum).

The RSI is now back right at the 50.00 neutral level, which also corroborates with a more hesitant picture.

A positive for Markets is the fact that WTI Crude has now officially stopped trending higher, at least for now – This is shown by the fact that bulls could not hold the war bull channel after the morning tumble.

But to maintain their high stakes rallies, they will need to see crude persist on the longer run below $100.

With the daily chart not offering such a clear view, let's take a closer look.

It only is the second time since the beginning of the War that WTI breaches its 4H 50-period moving average – A sign of further progress but this still fails to translate into more downside ahead.

Even the intraday charts aren't displaying any type of clear pattern.

When you can't trust individual candlesticks and trendlines, the only technical areas to rely on are supply and resistance levels (Support and resistances).

The $98 to $100 zone acts as a significant magnet for action and will retain this role as long as the situation remains unclear.

• Breaking $98 would point to $93 and form a new range in this area.
• Bouncing above $100 would on the other hand point to $106 and form an upper range in this zone.
  • These levels are expected to remain until a proper peace deal is reached.

WTI Technical Levels:

Resistance Levels

• 4H 50-period MA (~$103.96)
• $106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance
• $110 psychological level
• 2022 and War highs $117 to $120

Support Levels

• $98 to $100 Major Pivot (testing)
• War Support Pivotal $93.00 to $95
• $87 to $90 mini-Support (4H 200-period MA)
• 2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80
• Pre-War Support $63.80 to $64

Oil is now stuck at the $98 level as traders await for further signals.

A sign of hesitancy that points to more rangebound action ahead is the fact that the RSI is already showing signs of rebounding close to overbought levels.

However, this could only point to a thinner $2 range to $100 as participants are still scrambling for further news.

The action could be stuck for the time being, but one important region to look at is Lebanon, with direct Israel-Lebanon talks supposed to start tomorrow (and will be of great assistance to any peace deal).

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The AUD/USD technical outlook is decidedly bullish, with the path of least resistance to the upside.
• The pair successfully broke out above the primary descending trendline on the Daily chart.
• Bullish momentum is reinforced by a "Golden Cross" formation on the 4-hour chart.
• The 0.7130 level stands as the next major hurdle for the bulls.

Most Read: The war premium vs. The yield premium: Which force will seize control and drive Gold’s next move?

The Australian Dollar has undergone a significant shift in momentum over the past few sessions. After a period of corrective price action, AUD/USD appears to be finding its feet, buoyed by a successful defense of critical support zones and a breakout of descending trendline resistance.

On the daily timeframe, AUD/USD remains in a broad constructive phase despite the volatility seen through February and March. The pair recently came within a whisker of the 100-day MA printing a low around the 0.6833 handle.

The most notable development on this timeframe is the breakout above the primary descending trendline (black line) originating from the year-to-date highs. After consolidating near the 0.7000 psychological handle, price action is now challenging the 0.7080 resistance. A daily close above this level would clear the path for a retest of the 0.7130 mark before the YTD highs at 0.7187 comes into focus.

AUD/USD Daily Chart, April 13, 2026

Shifting to the 4-hour chart, the bullish narrative is reinforced by the "Golden Cross" formation, where the 50-day MA has crossed above the 100 and 200-day MAs. This technical signal often precedes sustained trending moves.

We can see a clear "V-shaped" recovery from the late March lows. The pair has successfully flipped the 0.7000 level from resistance to support. Currently, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is hovering near the 66 level; while this indicates strong bullish momentum, it suggests there is still some "headroom" before the pair reaches overbought territory, allowing for further upside in the short term.

AUD/USD Four-Hour Chart, April 13, 2026

The 1-hour chart provides a granular look at the recent breakout. After a brief period of consolidation between 0.7034 and 0.7080, the pair has just printed a strong bullish candle, piercing the upper boundary of this range.

The intraday moving averages (50, 100, and 200) are perfectly fanned out in a bullish alignment, suggesting that any minor pullbacks are likely to be met with fresh buying interest. The immediate focus for intraday traders will be the 0.7080 level; as long as price holds above this on a retest, the next logical target is the swing high at 0.7130.

Key Levels to Watch

• Resistance: 0.7080, 0.7130, 0.7150
• Support: 0.7034, 0.7000 (Psychological), 0.6913

AUD/USD One-Hour Chart, April 13, 2026

The RSI across multiple timeframes is not yet flashing "exhaustion" signals, though the Bearish Divergence labels on the H1 indicator suggest that the slope of the ascent might moderate. Traders should watch for a potential "throwback" to the 0.7034 area for a lower-risk entry if the current breakout stalls.

In short, the technical outlook for AUD/USD is decidedly bullish. The confluence of a trendline breakout on the Daily, a moving average crossover on the H4, and a range breakout on the H1 suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the upside. The 0.7130 level stands as the next major hurdle for the bulls.

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Gold prices remain caught in a tight range.
• The primary driver limiting downside is the ongoing tension around the Strait of Hormuz, keeping the metal in a state of limbo until clarity on the US-Iran situation emerges.
• Resilient US economic data and Hormuz inflation risks are forcing markets to price in "higher-for-longer" US interest rates.
• The immediate technical outlook is neutral, with support at $4,700 and bulls needing a decisive break above $4,804 to challenge higher resistance levels.

Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook - Markets brace for US-Iran talks amid post-ceasefire surge

Gold prices experienced a rollercoaster start to the week with Hormuz inflation risks front and center after the US and Iran failed to reach a deal in Pakistan over the weekend.

The precious metal continues to struggle for a clear direction as two opposing forces namely, the rising Middle East tensions and a hawkish shift in the Fed’s outlook tug at the precious metal.

Despite a recovery since the initial post war selloff, the "safe-haven" rally appears to be losing its legs as traders weigh the risk of a regional conflict against the reality of "higher-for-longer" US interest rates.

The primary driver keeping Gold from a deeper retracement is the simmering tension between the US and Iran. With the deadline for US-Iran mediation approaching, the market remains on edge.

Reports of a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have sent shockwaves through the commodities sector, primarily boosting oil prices, but also providing a fundamental "ceiling" for Gold as markets fear the higher for longer rates narrative.

Downside is limited by the hopes of a potential deal given President Donald Trump's record of “TACO”. This is keeping the precious metal supported for now and sort of in a state of limbo until some clarity on the US-Iran situation comes to fruition.

The Federal Reserve continues to act as the primary headwind. Recent US economic data has been uncomfortably resilient, forcing markets to rethink the timing and depth of rate cuts for 2026. This hawkish repricing has breathed new life into the US Dollar and pushed Treasury yields higher, making non-yielding assets like Gold less attractive.

From a macro perspective, the "war premium" is currently being offset by the "yield premium." As long as the US economy continues to defy gravity, the Fed has little reason to pivot, and that remains the single biggest hurdle for Gold’s path toward the psychological $5,000 mark.

Given the factors discussed above, Gold is in a state of limbo and this looks set to continue. The only way the current narrative shifts is with some sort of resolution regarding the Iran conflict.

If mediation fails and the Hormuz blockade becomes a reality, we could see a vertical move as the market prices in a massive inflationary shock and higher rates could send Gold prices tumbling.

Conversely, if a deal is struck, expect the "fear premium" to evaporate quickly, but Gold could benefit as markets may view the inflation situation to be (for lack of a better word) transitory.

For now, Gold is a passenger to the headlines. Traders should keep a close eye on the US Dollar Index (DXY) and energy prices, as these will be the primary leading indicators for the next major leg in the yellow metal.

Looking at the charts, Gold’s recovery is entering its third week, but the momentum is visibly waning. The price is oscillating within a tight range, finding immediate support at the $4,700 psychological level.

While the 100-period SMA (blue) has transitioned from resistance to dynamic support near $4,606, the upside remains capped by the descending 200-period SMA (orange) currently hovering around $4,870.

The RSI sits neutrally at 51.84, confirming a lack of directional momentum. Bulls need a decisive break above the recent swing high at $4,804 to challenge the $4,870 SMA and the elusive $5,000 handle. Conversely, a breach of the $4,700 support could see a swift retracement toward the $4,600 confluence zone.

Key Levels to Watch:

Resistance: $4,804, $4,870, $5,000

Support: $4,700, $4,606, $4,500

Gold (XAU/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 13, 2026

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US Stock Benchmarks gapped down at their weekly open with US-Iran ceasefire weakening
• Crude Oil rebounded above $100 with Islamabad talks compromised and a US blockade in Hormuz on its way
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

This weekend marked the start of US-Iran negotiations, which, unsurprisingly, quickly turned sour.

A wave of US and Iranian envoys have come and gone from Islamabad, Pakistan, to maintain the diplomatic attempts – The first round of talks was unfortunately unfruitful.

Numerous disputes have halted discussions, with the US administration eager for an agreement but insisting on demands that the Islamic regime considers too harsh.

WTI Crude surged nearly 10% to $104 at the Globex open, sparking pessimism in global stock markets.

The Ceasefire is still ongoing, and as long as it continues, there is hope for a more peaceful path ahead.

President Trump recently decided to implement a blockade of blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran maintaining their leverage on the world's most important 10km location.

Will this advance a deal? Uncertain, given ongoing threats to end the truce. Prediction markets now estimate the odds of a deal before April 30 at 20%, down from 35% on Friday.

Despite gapping lower at the open, US Equities are remaining extremely resilient, with the S&P 500 holding right below unchanged and only the Dow Jones pulling back (~ -0.50%). The moves are still quite timid, definitely not pointing to a return of widespread panic.

While the Middle East situation remains in a status quo, traders are still maintaining optimistic views on the conflict's future. It is wise to keep a close eye on the latest developments to be ready to trade accordingly.

While doubts remain, it is always best to remain ready. Let's look at intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Markets Today: Crude surges 8%, DXY jumps as US naval blockade targets Iranian oil exports
• Metals are lost in translation; Risk-assets or Safe-Haven? – Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) & Copper (XCU/USD) Outlook
• Markets Weekly Outlook - Markets brace for US-Iran talks amid post-ceasefire surge

The Market picture is quite cloudy, with many of the largest names hanging close to unchanged as Participants still uncertain on what to do next.

Producer manufacturing is a laggard while Tech (particularly electronics) are attempting a rebound.

Once again, sectorial trading seems quite compromised amid recent confusion, hence it could be more strategic to either focus on individual stocks or Index trading to avoid getting caught in crosswinds.

The Dow Jones Index gapped lower at the Open, struggling the most out of the three main US benchmarks. However, sellers could not continue their short-lived dominance and a rebound attempt is already on the way.

For the short-term, look at 48,000 for immediate bull/bear guidance, as this will be a target for the ongoing rebound.

• Rejecting it points to more downside ahead, pointing towards 47,000
• Breaking back above 48,000 would look to retest the past week highs (48,300) – Above this, the action turns long-term bullish.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Momentum Pivot at 48,000 (short-term bearish below)
• March 4 resistance 48,250 - 48,300 (bull above)
• Mini-resistance 48,700
• Major Resistance – 49,000 to 49,200

Support Levels

• Major Pivotal Support 47,400 to 47,600 (Session lows)
• War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)
• March 8 War lows Resistance now Support 46,300
• 45,700 to 45,900 August Support
• January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280

Nasdaq remains persistent within its 25,000 to 25,250 area, forming a short-term consolidation range.

The longer the action stays in that zone, the higher the chances of an upside breakout.

Nonetheless, this zone is a longer-run resistance, hence any bearish outflow could see heavy momentum – Keep track of sentiment for more precise execution.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,250 (top at 25,250!)
• 25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range resistance
• Major resistance 25,700 to 25,850

Support Levels

• 24,750 to 24,900 Momentum Pivot
• 24,450 to 24,550 Pivotal Support
• Feb Range Support 24,150 to 24,200
• Major 2026 Pivotal Support 23,800 to 24,000
• August 2025 Support 23,500 to 23,650
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 is already running back towards its Friday highs as traders maintain further hopes for continued talks.

Breaking 6,840 puts the Index on a bullish short-term outlook. Failing to breach this level maintains a more rangebound outlook ahead.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Early March Resistance 6,820 to 6,840 (testing)
• Key Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900
• Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975

Support Levels

• Major Momentum Pivot 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,680 to 6,700 Pivotal Support (4H 200-period MA)
• 6,580 to 6,610 Support
• 4H 50-period MA 6,550
• 6,490 to 6,520 October lows
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

The narrative is still confusing, so keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
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• Peace talks between the US and Iran collapsed
• Crude oil prices surged 7-8% following the news, as the US blockade aims to cut off Iran's oil exports of about 1 million barrels per day.
• European equities plunged, with the STOXX 600 falling 0.7%, reflecting a widespread "risk-off" sentiment
• DXY eyes a retest of 99.50

Most Read: Q2 2026 US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100) Outlook – Resilience or retracement?

The "Fear Trade" is back on the menu this Monday. Geopolitical tensions have hit a fever pitch after peace talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan ended in a stalemate. Vice President Vance has officially departed Islamabad, leaving a void where a diplomatic resolution was hoped for, as Tehran reportedly balked at Washington’s proposed terms.

In a swift and characteristic escalation, President Trump has responded by ordering a full-scale US. military blockade of all Iranian ports. This isn't just a "wait and see" scenario; the operation is slated to go live tomorrow.

The Logistics of the Blockade According to US Central Command, the enforcement begins at 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT) on Monday. The military has emphasized that this will be an "impartial" operation, targeting vessels of all nations attempting to enter or exit Iranian coastal areas.

Crucially for global trade and the energy markets:

• Strait of Hormuz: Vessels transiting to non-Iranian ports will reportedly not be impeded.
• Financial Penalties: President Trump added a further layer of pressure on Sunday, stating that U.S. forces would intercept any vessel in international waters found to have paid transit tolls to Iran.

Market Impact: The "war premium" that had begun to bake out of the markets last week is likely to come screaming back. We are looking at a binary risk environment:

1. Oil (WTI & Brent): Markets gapped higher after the weekend but are trading flat at present. While the Strait remains "open" for now, the risk of a miscalculation or a retaliatory closure by Tehran is high. The IRGC also stated that any ship approaching the Strait would be seen as violating the ceasefire.
2. The Dollar (DXY) and Gold: The DXY also gapped higher while Gold gapped down and extended its slide in the Asian session. Gold has since turned and trades largely flat on the day.

Currency Power Balance

1. Supply Chains: Commercial mariners are awaiting a formal notice, but the "toll intercept" threat adds a significant layer of legal and operational risk for global shipping firms.

The diplomatic window has slammed shut, and we are moving from words to warships once more. Expect high volatility as the Monday continues.

The "peace rally" proved short-lived. European equities tumbled on Monday morning as the optimistic narrative of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East evaporated. The collapse of US-Iran negotiations and Washington’s aggressive move to blockade Iranian ports have sent traders scrambling back to defensive positions.

The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.7% to 610.44 points by 0718 GMT, effectively halting the momentum from last week’s 3% gain. The regional sentiment is decidedly "risk-off," with Germany's DAX sliding 1% and the FTSE 100 retreating 0.4%.

The market map this morning shows a clear split between those benefiting from the "war premium" and those vulnerable to it:

Winners: The Energy sector (.SXEP) is the lone bright spot, gaining 0.8% as it tracks the rally in oil.

Losers: Travel and Leisure (.SXTP) has been hit hardest, plunging 1.9% on fears of rising fuel costs and disrupted global mobility.

Heavily Weighted Drags: Banks (.SX7E) and Industrials (.SXNP) are under significant pressure, down 1.5% and 1% respectively, as the broader economic outlook dims.

Read More:

Markets Weekly Outlook - Markets brace for US-Iran talks amid post-ceasefire surge

NBP expands gold reserves and moves closer to the global Top 10

Euro comes out swinging: Can the "Trump Reversal" sustain EUR/USD's upside bias?

The DXY is up 0.4% today as markets react to the breakdown of Islamabad talks. Crude has surged 7-8% on the news of a U.S. naval blockade targeting the 1 million barrels per day Iran has been leaking into the market.

The Strategic Play Washington’s goal is two-fold: drain Tehran’s coffers and pressure major importers like China and India to force Iran back to the negotiating table.

Why Haven’t Markets Fully Imploded? Despite the escalation, two factors are keeping a floor under sentiment:

• Diplomatic Channels: The fact that Iran actually attended the Islamabad talks suggests the door isn't permanently locked.
• Infrastructure Safety: We haven't seen a return to the physical destruction of energy facilities, which would cause more permanent "scarring" to supply.

We are in a high-stakes game of geopolitical chicken. If the blockade holds and exports drop, Asian demand will tighten global supply even further, keeping the bid under Crude firm.

Outside of the geopolitical noise, the focus shifts to central bank "reaction functions" as the Spring IMF meetings kick off in Washington. With a heavy slate of speeches on the calendar, the core question is how policymakers will handle the current energy shock.

Expect the DXY to remain tethered to energy price volatility. However, keep an eye on the 99.50 level, this marks the top of last week’s "ceasefire gap" and should attract significant selling interest if tested.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently navigating a technical crossroads as geopolitical tensions flare.

Price action recently broke below an ascending channel, and we saw a retest of the 200-day SMA (98.50) and 50-day SMA (98.61). A sustained break below this moving average cluster could see the index slide toward the 97.70 support.

However, after the weekend gap this looks less likely in the near-term with a move higher looking more appealing if the geopolitical status quo remains unchanged.

A move higher may find that selling interest remains heavy near 99.50, the critical gap-fill zone.

USD Index Daily Chart, April 13, 2026

Traders should be wary of "headline risk" today. After the weekend developments we need to see how the situation plays out in real time before risk the risks can be adequately assessed. Until then the risk remains skewed to the upside for Oil and the USD and downside for risk assets including Gold.

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.