• Escalating Middle East conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude to $90 a barrel, raising fears of oil hitting $150.
• A surprising contraction in the US labor market (unexpected job losses in February and unemployment at 4.4%) has increased the chance of a June or July interest rate cut by the Fed.
• US markets show more resilience, supported by the tech sector and net oil exporter status, while Europe faces a potential "stagflationary shock" due to its vulnerability to energy price spikes
• The week ahead is dominated by geopolitics, but major economic releases include US CPI and Core PCE for insights into inflation's "stickiness," and a significant upward revision expected for Japan's Q4 2025 GDP.

Read More: Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is down 3% for the week, but bulls may make a comeback

Wall Street’s primary indexes tumbled on Friday, led by a sharp decline in the Dow to a three-month low as the market grappled with escalating conflict in the Middle East and a surprising contraction in the US labor market.

Data revealed the economy unexpectedly lost jobs in February,exacerbated by healthcare strikes and severe winter weather pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4%.

This combination of geopolitical tension and economic cooling has shifted market expectations; traders have now priced in a roughly 50% chance of a June interest rate cut, while some analysts suggest the Fed’s dual mandate to balance inflation and employment could pull the first cut forward to July.

The volatility is being fueled by a dramatic spike in energy prices, with Brent crude hitting $90 a barrel following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. As shipping halts and analysts warn that oil could reach $150 a barrel if Gulf exports are fully suspended, airline stocks have plummeted nearly 13% this week.

Qatar’s recent warnings regarding prolonged delivery delays for natural gas have only added to the "stagflation" fears, a situation where growth slows while prices rise.

Despite the downturn, US markets have shown more resilience than their global counterparts, buoyed by a strong tech sector and the nation's status as a net oil exporter.

In contrast, European markets suffered their worst week in nearly a year, with the STOXX 600 hitting a two-month low. Because Europe is more vulnerable to energy price shocks, major exchanges in Frankfurt, Paris, and Madrid recorded historic weekly losses as investors braced for a potential stagflationary environment across the continent.

Gold prices edged higher on Friday as escalating tensions in the Middle East sparked a wave of safe-haven buying.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $5,090.16 per ounce, while US gold futures for April delivery climbed 0.4% to $5,099.50. Despite these daily gains, the metal remained on track for a 3.5% weekly decline, effectively snapping a four-week winning streak.

This downward pressure stemmed from persistent inflation worries and a volatile dollar, both of which have dampened investor expectations for imminent interest rate cuts.

The broader commodities market showed a stark contrast, as crude oil prices surged toward their most significant weekly gain since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Spot WTI oil was up around 34% at the time of writing.

While gold benefited slightly from its status as a refuge during geopolitical instability, the reality of "higher-for-longer" interest rates continues to weigh on bullion's appeal compared to yield-bearing assets.

Global markets enter the second week of March 2026 under the shadow of a rapidly escalating Middle East conflict. With a US-led campaign against Iran entering its second week and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at a standstill, the "2022 Energy Shock" is no longer just a historical reference, it is the primary lens through which investors are viewing the week ahead.

The Macro Theme: Geopolitics Overpowers Fundamentals

While the economic calendar is packed with heavy hitters like US CPI and UK GDP, their influence may be dampened by the "high-risk zone" of current geopolitics.

• Energy Prices as the Barometer: Brent crude has already surged toward $85/bbl. Analysts warn that a breach of $100/bbl would be a "psychological milestone" that could trigger a deeper sell-off in risk assets.
• 2022 vs. 2026: There does appear to be a critical difference from the 2022 shock: the labor market is now much cooler. Unlike 2022, when workers could chase higher pay to offset energy costs, the current cooling trend (highlighted by a weak February US jobs report) means consumers have less of a buffer.

United States: The Inflation-Rate Cut Tug-of-War

The spotlight is firmly on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) due Wednesday and Core PCE on Friday.

The Dilemma: Markets are looking for signs of how "sticky" inflation remains before the full impact of the current energy spike is even recorded. A surprise upside in CPI would likely force markets to price out the two Fed rate cuts currently expected for 2026.

Consumer Sentiment: Friday’s University of Michigan survey will be the first real-time look at how the "energy shock" and tariff fears are sapping household confidence.

Asia: China’s "Two Sessions" and Japan’s GDP Revision

Asia remains at the forefront of the supply chain disruption, with a specific focus on the closing of China’s National People’s Congress.

• China (Monday/Tuesday): February CPI and PPI data will be released. Analysts expect a bounce in CPI to ~1.0% due to Lunar New Year spending, though this may be viewed as a "noise" rather than a trend. Trade data (Tuesday) will be scrutinized for the resilience of external demand.
• Japan (Tuesday): Expect a significant upward revision to Q4 2025 GDP (from 0.1% to 0.3% QoQ) following strong capital spending and winter bonuses. This could keep the Bank of Japan on its path toward normalization despite global turmoil.

Europe & UK: Looking for Signs of Life

The Eurozone is navigating a "stagflationary shock" where energy deficits punish the Euro, though narrowing interest rate differentials against the USD are providing some support.

• Germany (Monday/Wednesday): Industrial Production and final Inflation data will show if the "fledgling recovery" in manufacturing can withstand the new energy spike.

United Kingdom (Friday): Monthly GDP and industrial output for January will be released. Markets are looking for a pickup in growth to confirm the encouraging signals seen in recent PMI surveys.

From a technical standpoint, WTI has just posted a massive bullish engulfing candle which has completely invalidated the previous multi-year downtrend, thrusting WTI from the mid-$60s to over $90.00 in a matter of days.

The move as is largely the case was driven by the geopolitical and fundamental dynamics around Oil prices. However, it is important to note that were thechnical signs that Oil was in a consolidation phase with a breakout growing ever-more likley.

Nobody however envisioned a 30% + price spike in the space of a week.

Where does price go to from here?

This will of course depend on the course the war in the Middle East takes.

Further refinery attacks by Iran or any escalation on that front and we could open the new week already above the $100/barrel mark.

Alternatively, if tensions do begin to ease, Oil prices may fall quite quickly.

The price is currently testing the $90.05 level. If the momentum continues, the next major psychological and technical targets are $93.96 and the multi-year high at $100.00.

In the event of a "cool-off," the previous resistance at $80.19 and the 200-day SMA ($75.41) now serve as the primary floor.

There is a significant liquidity gap between $70 and $85. In normal market conditions, these gaps tend to fill, but in "war-premium" markets, they can remain open for weeks.

WTI Oil Weekly Chart, March 6, 2026

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Oil ends an erratic week, up more than 37% since last Friday
• WTI reaches historic volatility with Supply Fears reaching extremes, now back to 2023 levels.
• Exploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity

Oil took the center stage once again in this week's volatile action.

Rising 37% since last Friday, Crude is now at concerning levels, even outperforming the January 2022 Ukraine-War weekly performance, reaching $92.68 this week—a reminder that the commodity was trading near $55 just about two months ago.

The third ingredient in a daily toxic fundamental cocktail, Black Gold, is contributing to elevated inflation expectations.

Although its closure isn't official, as during the 1970s, the Strait of Hormuz is subject to de facto restrictions, and virtually no ships have managed to cross it.

Only nine ships have traversed the Strait of Hormuz this week – A major concern, particularly in Asia, where 90% of Middle Eastern Oil passes through.

Maritime insurance companies have strictly restricted, and in some cases banned, all types of passage, with premiums rising to historic highs.

A striking example of the damage done is seen in Singaporean Jet Fuel Prices, which have risen 140% since February 27.

With Iran adding further fuel to the fire (pun intended – even if this is nothing to joke about) by targeting Bahrain and other Gulf countries, the situation is certainly escalating.

Qatar even warned of the possibility of seeing $150/barrel prices if the de facto closure sustains.

To ease some price pressures, the US just launched a $20B reinsurance facility, which was met with a mildly headline-easing daily rise towards the close.

US and Israeli strikes have also managed to destroy around 1,300 ballistic missile and drone launchers, leading to a now much more restricted number of attacks from the Islamic regime.

This weekend will be very important towards incoming expectations, a week after the beginning of operations.

As traders prepare to end another crazy week, let's explore a few key charts for WTI (US) Oil to prepare for what's coming..

Read More:

• The Canadian Dollar loves conflict – Has the CAD reached a long-term bottom?
• Middle East escalation sends shockwaves through global energy markets
• Stocks tumble after chaotic NFP and Oil action – Dow Jones & US Index Outlook
• Large NFP miss and Oil surge to $90 – A Stagflation cocktail ahead of weekend risk

Oil quickly broke above all types prior resistance, reaching a peak of $92.68 before slightly easing in the final hour of trading.

Looking at 2025 levels is now quite useless, with this week's candle sweeping through the 3-year downward trend.

Looking out, using September to October 2023 levels will provide more reliable levels in order to track upcoming support and resistance.

Breaking $95 should quickly open the door for $100 per barrel.

Oil is closing its week off of its relative highs, a sign of balance amid the ongoing extreme squeeze – The RSI is naturally very overbought, but it is not a reliable indicator to watch during such high-paced trending environments.

Nevertheless, any hopes for lower prices will first have to breach the $86.50 Momentum Pivot Zone.

• Any pullback below will then see a minor support between $83 and $84.
• The only Major support however will be the $78 to $80 2025 High Zone.

WTI Technical Levels:

Resistance Levels

• $89 to $91 October 2023 Pivotal Resistance (testing)
• Daily highs $92.64
• Next Major Resistance $93.50 to $95
• $98 to $100 Resistance

Support Levels

• April 2024 Top – Momentum Pivot (Bullish above) $86.50 to $88.00
• $83 to $84 Mini-Support
• 2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80
• Monday spike $73.00 to $74.00
• September 2025 Mid-term Support $67.50 to $68
• 2025 lows $55.00

The end session brought with it some timid profit-taking, as sellers attempt to bring back the action within the $89 to $91 resistance zone.

Next week's open is virtually impossible to predict, but there are a few zones to watch:

• To the upside:
  • The $95 Major Resistance; breaking above hints at a quick test to $100
• To the downside:
  • The $86.50 Pivot Level, accompanied with the 20-Hour MA which could see some pullback buying
  • Reactions to the channel retest in the event of a larger pullback (around $84)
• Breaking back below $78 would imply that the war premium is easing (far from the case for now)

Safe Trades, a restful weekend, and keep track of the advancement of the conflict!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Israel’s strike on Iran has sharply escalated regional tensions, with the conflict quickly spilling over into global energy markets through severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Oil and gas prices have surged as shipping paralysis, insurance suspensions, and LNG export disruptions—especially from Qatar—tighten global supply and heighten market volatility.
• A prolonged conflict could deepen fiscal stress across Gulf producers, intensify inflationary pressure worldwide, and complicate the outlook for central bank interest rates.

The key event of this week is undoubtedly Israel’s attack on Iran, carried out in cooperation with the United States, which began on the last Saturday of February. The objective of Operation “Epic Fury” is reportedly to destroy Iran’s nuclear program and dismantle the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, one of the two branches of Iran’s armed forces. Weakening this formation is of particular importance from Israel’s perspective, as a close US ally in the region, because the Corps—consistent with the principles of Iranian foreign policy—supports armed groups and terrorist organizations beyond the country’s borders, including Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas, and Hezbollah. One of their principal goals remains the destruction of the Jewish state and the carrying out of terrorist activities targeting its citizens.

The Strait of Hormuz becomes a critical supply chokepoint

The conflict quickly spilled over into commodity markets. In just one week, Brent crude prices rose by more than 28%, while WTI gained 37%.

Although geopolitical tensions have often supported rallies in the price of “black gold” in the past, the current scale of the move is primarily the result of the actual paralysis of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, located off Iran’s southern coast. Under normal conditions, this strategic chokepoint handles around 20–25% of global oil trade and nearly 20% of global LNG flows, making it vital to the energy balance of many regions. In recent days, the strait has effectively become a war zone.

Drone attacks and shelling have brought commercial shipping almost to a standstill, even without a formal closure of the route. The situation has been further aggravated by insurers’ decision to suspend coverage for voyages through the Persian Gulf, which in practice has left hundreds of tankers stranded in ports across the UAE, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Although the US and its allies are attempting to organize escorts and convoys, the risk of a direct strike remains high enough that many shipowners are choosing not to transit the area.

Gulf producers face mounting export and fiscal pressure

At the same time, Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait are facing the problem of physically being able to sell their output. Oil production continues, but export capacity has been sharply curtailed, while insufficient storage space for surpluses of around 20 million barrels per day is increasing pressure to cut production. This is a mechanism that, on the one hand, constrains global supply and supports prices, but on the other hand hits producers’ current budget revenue streams, worsening their short-term fiscal position.

Europe feels the impact of the LNG shock

An equally strong shock has emerged in the gas market, with Qatar at the center of attention, as the Strait of Hormuz is a critical bottleneck for its LNG exports. QatarEnergy declared force majeure and suspended operations at its terminals in Ras Laffan, effectively cutting the country off from part of its export markets. Europe is feeling the consequences particularly strongly. TTF gas futures have surged by around 67% to approximately EUR 53,385/MWh this week alone.

The European market’s sensitivity is even greater because gas inventories after the winter of 2026 are lower, estimated at around 30%, which reduces the safety buffer and increases the risk premium embedded in prices.

Regional security risks extend beyond energy flows

The conflict is also significantly altering the economic sense of security across the region. Saudi Arabia and the UAE do have infrastructure that allows them to partially bypass the strait, including pipelines directing crude to ports on the Red Sea, but their capacity is not sufficient to replace the scale of seaborne transport. Moreover, this infrastructure is becoming a natural target for potential Iranian retaliation, further weakening the viability of any real alternative to Hormuz. Iraq, meanwhile, particularly in the Basra region, has been forced to reduce production in the south of the country for security reasons, directly affecting public finances, as the state budget relies heavily on oil revenues. As a result, the disruption of a single strategic route not only increases oil and gas price volatility, but also raises fiscal and political risk across the region, intensifying global uncertainty and the likelihood of further energy supply disruptions.

A prolonged conflict could reinforce global inflation risks

Naturally, de-escalation of the conflict should bring some stabilization to commodity and energy markets. However, the killing of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, may reduce Tehran’s willingness to negotiate and contribute to a prolonged military confrontation. In turn, a longer conflict in the Persian Gulf region could entrench high oil and gas prices, translating into inflationary pressure on a global scale. The effects would be visible not only in energy costs, but also in expectations regarding the path of central bank interest rates worldwide.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US Stock Benchmarks get rejected roughly after a toxic fundamental combo
• Gigantic misses in Non-Farm payrolls and Retails Sales combine with rising Oil prices towards Stagflation angst
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

Stagflation is the Market and Consumers' worst enemy, and it could well be at our doors.

Amid ongoing chaos in the Middle East and continued de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Oil prices have exploded to 2023 highs throughout the morning action.

As you can see on the chart below, rises in the Commodity's price aren't well received by investors. The reason is that higher Energy prices often correlate with squeezed profit margins due to higher transportation and production costs.

Since the 1970s, our reliance on Oil for power production has been trending lower.

However, we are still far from being isolated to rises in its costs – Hence, such brutal rises in energy commodities are often accompanied by swift climbs in inflation expectations.

This also becomes a nasty head-scratcher for the Federal Reserve, which surely did not enjoy the recent CPI and PPI rises, which can only confirm what Participants fear the most.

Stagflation had been avoided since the end of COVID restrictions, but it remained a cloud over our economies, and the storm could be approaching.

Combine the 148K miss (!!!) on NFP with yet another slip on Retail Sales data, and investors can now officially be scared for what's to come – And the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow confirms this, falling from 3.2% to 2.1%!

Still, Equity investors have found some kind of relief since the London Fix, as Rate cut expectations for the April 29 Rate Decisions have slowly crept up from 10% yesterday to the current 22%.

The Mood remains fragile, and we'll see more details in the charts, but it resembles short-covering rather than a proper rebound.

Let's spot if this move has the potential to last by diving into today’s mid-session charts and key trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Read More:

• Large NFP miss and Oil surge to $90 – A Stagflation cocktail ahead of weekend risk
• Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is down 3% for the week, but bulls may make a comeback
• Markets Today: Rate cut hopes wither as Nikkei and Kospi suffer steep weekly losses. NFP data up next

Once again, the Market rejects almost all but Tech equities – The latters are bouncing up again from their struggles as they are getting priced to be the least influenced by rises in Petroleum prices, without counting their heavy use within this ongoing Modern warfare.

It is also a rebalancing play unfolding, with the sector having already taken a beating since October while defensives and Manufacturing endured – A reason why Nasdaq has been withholding the correction better than its peers.

The Dow is subject to the most aggressive selling out of the three major US Indexes – Still down -1.30% despite the late-morning rebound.

Having crossed below its downward channel, bears are now well in control and the action is now testing a quintessential 47,000 Support.

With a 4H doji forming, two scenarios are ahead:

• A break below the 46,981 morning lows with heavy volume should see downward continuation, 46,500 is the next short-term target.
• Rebounding above the 47,507 morning highs with a 30M candle close above the level would point to a retest of the 48,000 Resistance.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Past Day Pivot 47,500 to 47,650
• Pivotal Resistance at 48,000
• November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Support and Channel highs
• Index All-Time highs 50,512

Support Levels

• Key Support 47,000 to 47,200 (Morning lows, bearish below)
• Pre-breakout Mini-Support 46,500
• 46,000 +/- 100 pts November Support
• 45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)

Nasdaq is resisting the bearish flows seen in the Dow with tenacity – But the battle is not over yet for Bulls!

A tweezer top bearish Candlestick formation could be turning the morning rebound into a more decidedly bearish action towards the weekend.

Breaking below 24,400 would point to a range failure and further downside.

• However, if tech remains resilient against others, Nasdaq could well remain within its 24,400 to 25,000 range – contingent on the general Market anxiety not worsening.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Mini-intraday Pivot 24,750
• 4H 50-period MA 24,923
• Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,170 (mini range highs)
• 25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistance

Support Levels

• 24,400 to 25,600 Key Support
• February Support 24,150 to 24,300
• October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000 (next target if break)
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 is now testing the extreme lower bound of its 6-month consolidation and facing a reality check ahead.

• Breaking the 6,700 Double Bottom would be a nail in the coffin for the Major Index.
• However, bulls will hope to see continuation from the resilient price action this morning.

The afternoon Session will be absolutely essential for future price action. Monday's Open will have the same effect!

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Key Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900 (testing)
• Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975
• Current ATH 7,020
• All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)

Support Levels

• Mini-Pivot 6,820 to 6,840
• 6,770 to 6,800 Psychological Support
• Previous day lows 6,710
• February lows 6,710 to 6,730
• 6,680 to 6,700 Next Support
• 6,400 Major psychological support

Safe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This morning is sending a nasty look for Markets, as Oil continues to explode higher amid Middle East tensions. At the same time, US labor data keeps showing volatility, this time to the downside.

It is a dark day for risk assets, and the fundamentals aren't going to help – particularly with a miss in Retail Sales rubbing salt in the wound, it seems that prior bounces in US data could have been a seasonal effect of Holidays/New Year hiring and consumption. We could now be facing a hangover.

Non-Farm Payrolls just released at -92K vs +56K expected, a significant (-148K) miss!

Such a reversal in the data can't fail to raise questions about actual job displacement from new AI technologies and whether the Federal Reserve is really getting behind the curve.

The issue for the Central Bank is that inflation is certainly bouncing higher despite lower Retail Sales – so combine a weaker jobs Market, consumption, and elevated inflation, and conclusions about stagflation could be reached quickly – and with decent reasoning, too!

With Energy prices shooting higher throughout the week, it is certain that inflation expectations are not going to ease anytime soon – the only thing that could soothe them at this point is an actual pricing of slower consumption ahead, but that wouldn't fare well for the US economy.

Goods-producing, Private Education, and Services took the largest hit, with gains only seen in Financials and Wholesale Trades. You can get access to the Non-Farm Payrolls report for February right here.

We will provide a quick outlook on the Market before diving into WTI (US) Oil Charts to get ready for what could be another volatile weekend.

Discover:

• Markets Today: Rate cut hopes wither as Nikkei and Kospi suffer steep weekly losses. NFP data up next
• Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is down 3% for the week, but bulls may make a comeback
• The Canadian Dollar loves conflict – Has the CAD reached a long-term bottom?

There goes risk-appetite, as a close to 10% rise in daily WTI prices will keep raising inflation expectations and that tends to coincide with major repricings in Equity markets

An in-depth Stock Market coming at the top of the morning.

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are not sustaining the dampening Market mood.

Even Bonds, which could have thought to rebound in such a miss in Non-Farm Payrolls, are actually met with high pressure from the rise in Oil (and rising Inflation Expectations).

Only Gold and Silver are rebounding, albeit a timid rebound for now – A Double bottom in Gold will be helping its prospects on the intraday.

Nonetheless, a larger picture double top could still have its effect, so Bulls will have to show real strength, volume and conviction!

The last time we saw the $90 handle in WTI was in late 2023 – A scary picture, particularly considering that Oil was trading at $55 just about two months ago!!

The Commodity has now risen 30% since the beginning of the week and despite some slight easing, the squeeze doesn't seem to be stalling.

A more detailed analysis for Oil is coming up in the afternoon. For now, keep track on if the action remains above $86.

• If it closes here, pressure will remain high.
• Correcting below should point to a slight correction ($80 would be the next step).

Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Gold pulls back despite geopolitical tensions: Gold (XAU/USD) is down about 3% for the week after an earlier 20% four-week rally, even though the US–Iran war 2026 initially pushed prices to a record $5,420 intraday high.
• Rising real yields cap gold’s upside: A 21% surge in West Texas Intermediate crude oil lifted inflation expectations, pushing the US 10‑year Treasury real yield up by ~20 bps, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and dampening its safe-haven rally.
• Technical setup suggests possible rebound: Gold is holding near key support around $5,046 (20-day moving average and Fibonacci support). If prices break above $5,280, a bullish move toward $5,448 could follow, while a drop below $5,046 risks deeper downside toward $4,960–$4,842.

The prior 4 weeks of positive returns seen in Gold (XAU/USD) from the week of 2 February 2026 to the week of 23 February 2026, where the precious yellow metal staged an accumulated gain of 20% (low to close during the 4 weeks).

Right after the first salvo of missiles fired jointly by the US and Isreal in the current US-Iran war, Gold (XAU/USD) gapped up on Monday, 2 March 2026, at the start of the Asian session with an intraday rally of 2.7% to print an intraday high of $5,420 (also the highest level traded so far this week at the time of writing).

Thereafter, bullish momentum tapered off, and Gold (XAU/USD) is now trading at a week-to-date loss of 3% at the time of writing.

Also, based on last Friday’s 27 February closing levels to Thursday, 5 March prices, LMBA spot Gold and NYMEX Gold futures have recorded losses of -2.3% and -2.9% respectively (see Fig. 1).

The primary reason for Gold not staging a similar pace of gains seen in West Texas crude oil, Brent, and LNG amid rising geopolitical risk premiums is due to the fear of stagflation risk that may put the current expectations of two interest rate cuts (a total of 50 basis points) by the US Federal Reserve in jeopardy, that also implies a rising risk of higher opportunity cost for holding Gold which is a non-interest income bearing asset.

Higher oil prices seen this week (WTI crude jumped by 21%) have increased inflationary expectations, in turn, triggering a rise of 20 basis points (bps) in the 10-year US Treasury real yield (10-year US Treasury nominal yield minus 10-year US breakeven inflation rate) from its medium-term range support of 1.66% to a current level of 1.86% (see Fig. 2).

Interestingly, the current rally in the 10-year US Treasury real yield is now back close to the 200-day moving average (1.9%), and the key range resistance of 1.98% that capped prior rallies in check since 19 August 2025.

In addition, its daily Stochastic oscillator has reached its overbought region of above 80, which suggests that the current up move in the 10-year US Treasury real yield may start to taper off, in turn, allowing Gold (XAU/USD) to stage at least a minor bullish reversal at this juncture.

Let us now dissect the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of Gold (XAU/USD) from a technical analysis perspective.

Watch the $5,046 key short-term pivotal support on Gold (XAU/USD) for a potential minor bullish reversal scenario, with the next intermediate resistances coming in at $5,192 and $5,280 (see Fig. 3).

A clearance above $5,280 is likely to see the bulls gaining traction to kickstart a minor bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next resistance to come in at $5,448 in the first step

However, a break and an hourly close below $5,046 invalidates the bullish reversal scenario for a further corrective slide towards the next intermediate supports at $4,960 and $4,842 (also the 50-day moving average).

• The $5,046 key short-term support confluences with the 20-day moving average, minor ascending channel support, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor rally from the 17 February 2026 low to the 2 March 2026 high.
• The hourly MACD trend indicator has formed a “higher low” (bullish divergence condition) below its centreline, which suggests that the current bearish momentum may have eased.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
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• Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI suffered their steepest weekly losses in nearly a year
• Crude oil (Brent +17.2%, WTI +20%) logged its sharpest weekly surge since early 2022
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) had its biggest weekly surge since late 2024
• Money markets pivoted to increase bets on potential rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB) to combat rising, energy-driven inflation. NFP data ahead.

Most Read: Chart alert: WTI crude oil bullish breakout above $78.10/barrel in play

Japanese equity markets suffered their most significant weekly retreat in nearly a year this Friday as escalating conflict in the Middle East severely restricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

This geopolitical friction choked global oil supplies, prompting a widespread flight from risk assets into the safety of cash. While the Nikkei 225 Index managed a slight recovery of 0.6% to finish at 55,620.84 on Friday, the broader picture remained bleak. The benchmark concluded the week with a 5.5% loss, marking its steepest percentage decline since the tariff-induced volatility of April 2025.

Sector performance and energy slump

The broader Topix followed a similar trajectory, gaining 0.4% on the day but ending the week down 5.6%. Energy-related stocks bore the brunt of the market's anxiety:

Energy explorers: One of the worst-performing sectors, down 1.9%.

Inpex: Dropped 1.7%.

Japan Petroleum Exploration: Shed 2.6%.

Oil sector index: Declined 1.2% overall.

Conversely, the technology sector provided a rare bright spot. Following a positive lead from Wall Street, software and IT shares rallied, with Fujitsu and NEC climbing 5.4% and 5.2%, respectively.

Regional Volatility: South Korea's record week

South Korean markets experienced even more dramatic swings, ending a week of extreme volatility with the KOSPI’s largest weekly drop since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020. The index plummeted 10.56% over the five-day period, fueled by a staggering 12% crash on Wednesday before a partial 10% rebound on Thursday. On Friday, the KOSPI remained relatively flat, closing at 5,584.87 as investors engaged in "dip-buying" near the 5,500-point support level.

Strategic Oil Reserves

The regional instability is particularly acute for South Korea, which ranks as the world’s fourth-largest oil importer and relies on the Middle East for 70% of its supply. To mitigate the impact of the Strait of Hormuz disruptions, the South Korean government has announced plans to secure more than 6 million barrels of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to stabilize domestic energy needs.

European equity markets saw a modest recovery on Friday as a temporary reprieve in the surging energy sector bolstered investor sentiment.

The STOXX 50 climbed 0.5% while the STOXX 600 edged up 0.2%, driven largely by gains in the industrial and consumer cyclical sectors. Despite this daily bounce, the broader market remains on edge as the conflict with Iran enters its seventh day, leaving significant geopolitical uncertainty hanging over the region.

Winners and Losers: Sector breakdown

The day's performance was a tale of two halves, with luxury and defense leads offset by a slump in healthcare and tech:

• Luxury & Tech Gains: Market heavyweights like SAP (2%), Siemens (1.4%), LVMH (1%), and Hermes (1%) all trended higher.
• Defense Surge: Ongoing Middle East tensions fueled interest in defense contractors, with Dassault Aviation jumping 4.3%, Rheinmetall rising 3.3%, and Leonardo gaining 2.6%.
• Aviation: Lufthansa shares soared 3% following an earnings report that exceeded analyst expectations.
• The Downside: High-profile laggards included Roche (-2.7%), Novartis (-1.3%), ASML Holding (-1.1%), and Unilever (-0.6%).

While Friday provided some relief, the weekly totals tell a much more somber story. Both major indices suffered their steepest weekly retreats since April 2025.

The week's sharp decline reflects the deep-seated anxiety regarding energy supply chains and the potential for further escalation in the Middle East.

The US dollar maintained a position of strength on Friday, positioning the greenback for its most significant weekly surge since late 2024.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the currency against a basket of major peers, edged higher to 99.14, marking a 1.5% increase for the week. This rally came at the expense of other major currencies: the Euro tumbled 1.9% for the week to $1.159, its steepest decline since 2022 while the Yen softened to 157.77 per dollar and Sterling nudged lower to $1.3347.

The primary catalyst for the dollar's dominance is the escalating conflict with Iran, which has sent energy prices soaring and reignited fears of a global inflation resurgence. This shift in the economic landscape has forced traders to aggressively re-evaluate the timing of central bank rate cuts:

Federal Reserve: Expectations for a June rate cut have withered, with the CME FedWatch Tool now pricing in only a 34% probability of easing.

Bank of England: Traders have similarly pared back expectations for rate relief in the UK.

European Central Bank: In a sharp pivot, money markets are now increasing bets on potential rate hikes later this year to combat rising costs.

As investors pivoted toward the dollar and braced for "higher-for-longer" interest rates, the cryptocurrency market experienced a cooling effect. Risk-off sentiment pushed Bitcoin down 0.96% to $70,459.79, while Ether followed with a 1.21% decline, settling at $2,055.42.

Currency Power Balance

The global energy market is currently navigating its most volatile period in years, with crude oil on track for its sharpest weekly surge since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in early 2022.

Driven by the widening conflict in the Middle East, Brent crude has skyrocketed 17.2% this week, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) surged by 20%.

Although prices eased slightly on Friday, with Brent dipping 0.6% to $84.88 and WTI falling 0.8% to $60.40, the decline was largely attributed to a strategic move by Washington. To alleviate immediate supply constraints, the US issued waivers for certain Russian oil purchases, providing a minor relief valve for the parched energy market.

Gold markets saw a defensive rebound on Friday as investors sought out the safety of bullion amidst the escalating geopolitical instability. Spot gold rose 0.8% to $5,117.27 per ounce, recovering from a sharp 1% drop in the previous session.

US gold futures for April delivery followed suit, climbing 1% to reach $5,126.70.

A point that may be worth mentioning, CME Group cut initial margins on gold and silver futures yesterday. This move follows a period of "forced liquidations" where traders were squeezed out of positions. Lowering margins reduces the capital required to hold a contract, which should stabilize the market by inviting speculative buyers back in and thus could provide some support to both Gold and Silver prices.

Read More:

• Chart alert: Why Japan’s Nikkei 225 can stage a minor recovery after its 4-day plunge
• NFP Preview: Jobs to drive volatility amid "operation epic fury" & implications for the DXY, Dow Jones
• Trade Idea: DAX eyes bullish recovery after 6% slide and retest of psychological 24000 handle

As the trading day continues, markets remain cautious, shifting their focus toward upcoming eurozone revised GDP data and some ECB policymaker comments.

Looking ahead to the US session, focus shifts back to US economic data today with the release of the January Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and retail sales reports.

While the consensus anticipates a respectable addition of 55,000 jobs following a robust 130,000 increase in January, some analysts are bracing for a softer or even negative reading due to the severe winter weather that gripped the US in late January and early February.

A disappointing figure could trigger a brief dip in the US dollar; however, any losses are expected to be short-lived as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to fuel safe-haven demand.

Markets are also closely watching for a reaction from the Federal Reserve. Governor Christopher Waller, who notably dissented in January in favor of a 25bps cut, is scheduled for a televised appearance at 1:30 PM CET today.

Current expectations suggest he may pivot toward advocating for a "pause" in rate adjustments. Such a stance would likely offer additional support to the greenback, adding another layer to today's complex dollar narrative.

Unless a significant political breakthrough leads to a ceasefire, the dollar appears unlikely to enter a sustained decline. Instead, the global economic story remains dominated by governments struggling to manage the inflationary fallout of record-high energy prices—a scenario that remains fundamentally bearish for global bond markets.

DXY Expected Range: 98.50 – 99.50

Key Support/Resistance: 99.00 remains a critical psychological pivot point.

Verdict: It remains too early for a meaningful sell-off in the dollar given the current "fog of war."

From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index has slipeed below both the 100 and 200-day MAs.

Having printed fresh highs on Friday around the 10935 handle the index is experiencing a pullback with the rise in geopolitical risks.

For now though, a deeper pullback to support around the 10233 and 10144 mark cannot be ruled out.

Only a four-hour candle close above the swing high point at 10628 would lead to a change in structure and could lead me to reevaluate my outlook.

Immediate support rests at 10233 before the 10144 handle comes into focus.

Resistance to the upside at 10447 needs to be cleared if bulls are to make a run for the 100-day MA at the 10628 handle and beyond.

FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, March 6, 2026

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Oil shock drove the sell-off: Since the start of the US–Iran War, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 6.1% in four days, underperforming global peers as Japan’s heavy reliance on imported oil heightens stagflation risks.
• Yield curve shift may support equities: A bull steepening of the Japanese government bond yield curve (10-yr minus 2-yr), partly driven by expectations of a less hawkish Bank of Japan, historically correlates with upside momentum in the Nikkei and may support a short-term rebound.
• Technical signals suggest a near-term bounce: The index has repeatedly held support around its 50-day moving average, with momentum indicators turning positive; a break above 56,530 could trigger a recovery toward 57,140–58,140, while a drop below 52,960 would invalidate the bullish scenario.

Since the start of the ongoing US-Iran war, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is one of the worst-performing key global benchmark stock indices due to being a major oil net importer, where the steep rally seen in oil prices in the past four days increases the odds of a negative feedback loop towards Japan’s economic growth prospects via the stagflation fear factor.

The Nikkei 225 staged a decline of 6.1% from last Friday, 27 February to Thursday, 5 March, underperforming other key Asia Pacific stock markets; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (-4.9%), Singapore’s Straits Times Index (-3%), Australia’s ASX 200 (-2.8%), and China’s CSI 300 (-1.3%) (see Fig. 1).

Interestingly, the 4-day plunge of the Nikkei 225 is likely to stage a minor recovery at this juncture, supported by technical and intermarket factors.

Let’s dive deeper into these aspects.

Since the start of the ongoing major bullish trend phase of the Nikkei 225 from early April 2025, the upward trajectory of the Nikkei 225 has been supported and moved in a significant direct correlation with the steepening of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield curve spread (10-year JGB yield minus 2-year JGB yield) (see Fig. 2).

As of 6 March 2026, the BoJ has conducted four interest rate hikes in its current tightening cycle, which began in 2024 as it exited from its ultra-easy monetary policy stance and negative interest rate environment.

The policy interest rate currently stands at 0.75%. Market participants polled by various media outlets expect the BoJ to continue its gradual interest rate hike policy by enacting 1 to 2 hikes in 2026 to bring the year-end target policy interest rate higher to 1.0%-1.25%.

The 2-year JGB yield is very sensitive to the latest monetary policy stance of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) as perceived by traders in the JGB market.

The 2-year JGB yield rocketed to a 30-year high of 1.31% on 9 February 2026 after the BoJ's last interest rate hike in December 2025, and Prime Minister Takaichi’s coalition party won a super majority in the lower house of Japan's parliament on 8 February 2026 snap election.

Since 9 February 2026, the 2-year JGB yield has softened by 7 basis points to trade at a current level of 1.24% at the time of writing and formed a “lower high” (see Fig. 2).

The current path of minor decline in the 2-year JGB, while still holding above its 50-day moving average, suggests that the BoJ may offer guidance to pause its interest rate hike cycle in the upcoming 19 March 2026’s monetary policy meeting due to the negative impact of higher oil prices arising from a prolonged US-Iran war.

A less hawkish expectation in BoJ’s future monetary policy stance can be implied by the recent rebound in the 10-year/2-year JGB yield curve spread, where a key support was tested at 0.84% (also its 200-day moving average) on Monday before it rebounded by 8 bps to trade at 0.92% at the time of writing (see Fig. 2).

Hence, a further bull steepening of the JGB yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) can translate into a minor recovery (at least in the first step after the 4-day plunge of the Nikkei 225 staged a retest on its 50-day moving average).

Let’s now look at the technical factors to determine Nikkei 225’s potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days).

The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) have managed to find support at the 50-day moving thrice this week on three occasions; 3 March 2026, 4 March 2026, and 5 March 2026.

Watch the 54,100/52,960 key medium-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 56,530 increases the odds of a minor recovery to see the next intermediate resistances to come in at 57,140 (also the 20-day moving average) and 58,140, respectively (see Fig. 3).

On the flip side, a break with a daily close below 52,960 invalidates the recovery scenario to kickstart a medium-term downtrend phase (multi-week) to expose the next intermediate supports at 52,960 and 52,260 in the first step.

• The recent rebound seen on the 54,100/52,960 key medium-term support zone also confluences with the major ascending channel support in place since the 7 April 2025 low.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout above its descending trendline resistance and jumped higher above the 50 level, a potential resurgence of minor bullish momentum condition.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 5

Today's trading was definitely not as hopeful as yesterday, reminding everyone how tricky Markets can be.

It certainly hasn't been a typical Market amid the ongoing brutal US-Iran war. Safe-havens like Bonds and Gold are once again hurting from profit-taking and inflationary fears, but Equity Markets haven't fared much better.

As detailed in our earlier Oil Market analysis, as long as the commodity finds reasons to rise, investor mood will continue to degrade, and that is precisely what happened today.

Energy commodities found a new bid in today's volatile session, as attacks on Gulf countries and their oil-producing facilities are multiplied, with the Iranian regime decidedly sparing no one in their ruthless ripostes – Even Azerbaijan was victim of a drone attack today.

Today, the Islamic regime sent out brutal waves of attacks against an oil production facility in Bahrein, which sent Black Gold flashing to July 2024 highs ($82.30 for WTI!) and turned Market mood on its head – Stock Markets have fallen around the globe, with slight corrections in the US (~ Down 1%) and larger ones in Europe (~ -3%).

What saved the American session, however, was China's announcement of talks with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for Oil and natural gas deliveries to Asia.

Iran has close ties to China, so participants are taking this news more seriously.

If Oil falls below $80 and remains there for a while, it will help to sustain a more decent Market mood.

Risk assets have since rallied significantly from their lows, and Oil has eased back. You can take a look at the brutal Stock Market reversal right below!

Read More:

• The Canadian Dollar loves conflict – Has the CAD reached a long-term bottom?
• EUR/USD: NFP looms as 1.1578 support faces critical test
• Chart alert: DAX’s dead cat bounce may have ended, watch 24,000 downside trigger
• Chart alert: WTI crude oil bullish breakout above $78.10/barrel in play

Most of the Market got battered today, with the end-session rebound really saving the action from a very ugly-picture.

Local winners include tech stocks, which continue to trade higher (less affected by the war, on the contrary), and Energy equities which keep enjoying from higher Oil prices.

Today's asset picture sends out stagflationary fears, with all types of assets correcting amid the daily Oil explosion.

It is surprising to see that metals are also getting heavily rejected, but less surprising if you had check out our recent Gold analysis!

This war trade has moved in several faces and should expect to continue acting very dynamically – Oil remains the product to watch, for the rest, things are a bit all over the place!

Watch how sentiment sustains after today's late-session rebound.

After a 2-session break in its rally, the US Dollar is forming the basis for another rally.

Keep a close eye on the Dollar Index – If it breaks its preceding peak (99.68), furious short-covering could be unfolding.

Still, the Dollar eased its ascention after the China comments. It remains the safe-haven currency during this war trade, so keep track of how it evolves.

Risk-currencies like the AUD and NZD took a beating on the other hand! Large profit-taking going on there!

As if Iran news weren't enough, traders should be preparing for a banger tomorrow.

Non-Farm Payrolls and US Retail Sales will be releasing at the same time, so traders will have to keep a close eye on potential data divergence – expect reactions to the data to remain a priority throughout until ~10:00 (post-Market open). Keep a close eye on the Unemployment Rate!

After this, traders will focus back on Weekend risk.

Euro traders will also have to remain attentive to the Eurozone GDP, with Christine Lagarde also speaking similarly (5:00 A.M. ET).

Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The pair is under pressure, trading below 1.1600 due to geopolitical tensions (Middle East conflict, Iran leadership) and the ECB's "persistent uncertainty" which prevents the Euro from decoupling from the US Dollar's strength
• The highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report tomorrow is expected to cause significant volatility, with a strong reading cementing Dollar dominance.
• The immediate future hinges on the 1.1578 support level.

Most Read: NFP Preview: Jobs to drive volatility amid "operation epic fury" & implications for the DXY, Dow Jones

EUR/USD finds itself at a critical technical and fundamental juncture. After a volatile week defined by a "flight to safety," the pair has broken back below the psychological 1.1600 barrier.

One could almost call EUR/USDs conundrum as a ‘tale of two tensions’. The pair is navigating through a mix of geopolitical anxiety and central bank caution.

The European Central Bank (ECB) published its meeting accounts today. While the Governing Council expressed confidence that inflation is trending toward target, they emphasized "persistent uncertainty."

This cautious rhetoric suggests the ECB is in no rush to pivot aggressively, but it also fails to provide the hawkish spark the Euro needs to decouple from the Dollar’s strength.

Add to this the escalating conflict in the Middle East and you have a cocktail for explaining the slide in EUR/USD.

Looking at the latest from the Middle East, according to reporting from Axios, President Trump has asserted that he must be personally involved in the process of selecting Iran’s next leader. While acknowledging that Mojtaba Khamenei is currently the most likely individual to succeed the Supreme Leader, the President characterized such an outcome as unacceptable.

This is likely to keep tensions high and a peace deal or ceasefire out of reach which would continue to lend support to the US Dollar and drag EUR/USD lower.

Recent US economic indicators, including a strong ISM Services PMI (56.1) and steady private payroll data, continue to paint a picture of US economic outperformance. This "American exceptionalism" keeps the Federal Reserve's policy path looking more robust compared to its European counterpart.

Tomorrow though will bring the highly anticipated NFP release. As the most significant labor market data point of the month, a strong reading could cement the Dollar's dominance, while a miss might provide the Euro the breathing room it needs to stage a relief rally.

The immediate future of EUR/USD hinges on whether the 1.1578 support level can hold on a daily closing basis.

The Bearish Case: If the pair closes below 1.1578, technical analysts warn of a "deeper slide" toward 1.1500. Such a move would likely be triggered by a renewed surge in oil prices (potentially toward $100/bbl) or a further escalation in regional hostilities.

A test of the 1.1450 level will be intriguing. This has been a multi-year pivot level for EUR/USD and if this holds, it may present an opportunity for position traders.

The Bullish Case: For a meaningful recovery, the Euro must reclaim its 200-day moving average near 1.1670. A break above this level would signal that the broader uptrend remains intact and could trigger a wave of technical buying back toward 1.1800.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart, January 6, 2026

For now, EUR/USD remains in a "wait-and-see" mode, pinned between geopolitical headlines and looming US data. Traders should remain cautiously optimistic only if 1.1580 holds; otherwise, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Canadian Dollar had been a victim of a rough stretch since the beginning of Trump's second term.

Isolated by its historic neighbor amid US First policies, the Canadian Economy had been taking a sustained hit, leading to an accelerated cooling. The Land of Maple Syrup is known to be highly cyclical. Structurally, it tends to be dependent on commodity prices, global trade, and particularly on the US, which harshly pumped the brakes.

This phenomenon got accelerated by the historic Canadian mortgage structure: Variable loans are particularly affected when rates rise, compared to the typical 30-year fixed rates offered in the US.

Hence, after the 2 years of ultra-low rates during COVID policies, the Bank of Canada hikes sent the hypersonic economy into a rock-hard wall.

Add to this a general productivity restructuring, as massive waves of immigration saw another brutal stop; business confidence and investment stalled suddenly over the past few years – this shows up particularly in GDP per capita in Canada, which has remained broadly unchanged since 2012.

But there is light at the end of the tunnel. After years of questioning within Canada's natural Liberal party, Justin Trudeau stepped aside for Mark Carney, who has since cast doubt on some political issues.

Since his ascension to power in March 2025, Carney and his party have brought three Conservatives into their ranks. Conservatives are going through their own crisis with internal trouble and separatist causes in Alberta. The Liberal Party is now three seats away from a majority in the House of Commons.

But that's just politics. Even if the Canadian economy remains deeply strained from the latest rounds of US Policies, Carney has begun a new wave of international trade deals with India, China, and Europe – The rise of the "Middle power".

Canada's manoeuvre options were thin, with the trilateral USMCA deal in limbo, but its capacities are slowly increasing.

What is of traders' interest is how all of this relates to the Loonie.

After reaching 16-year lows against the Euro, 22-year troughs against the USD, and a new nadir against the Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar is forging a sharp turn, supported by higher petroleum and gold prices.

While its economy remains crippled by structural factors, Markets are forward-looking, and traders should do the same, so let's ask a simple question.

Have we seen a long-term bottom in the Canadian Dollar?

Let's dive into the weekly charts for USD/CAD, CAD/CHF, and EUR/CAD to see if we can get some clues from higher-timeframe technical analysis.

Read More:

• Can Iran fully block the Strait of Hormuz?
• Gold (XAU/USD) marks a double top despite Iran conflict – Below $5,000 soon?
• Markets Today: KOSPI surges 9.63% to lead Asian rally, Europe struggles, FTSE 100 eyes recovery

USD/CAD has now officially broken its 2021 long-term uptrend – But such rarely signify immediate U-turns.

The Major North American pair is currently ranging between 1.35 and 1.38, stabilized by its 200-Week Moving Average (1.36378).

The consolidation isn't looking to be break on the immediate outlook, but keep these two breakout zones in mind:

• Breaking and closing on the week below 1.35 would hint at further downside in the pair.
• Rebounding a closing above its 50-Week MA (1.3830) could lead to a retest of 1.40 (lower odds)

Explore our shorter timeframe analysis for USD/CAD right here.

USD/CAD Higher timeframe levels

Resistance Levels:

• 1.38 Major Daily Resistance & 50-Week MA (1.3830)
• 2026 highs 1.39288
• November 2025 Peak 1.40 to 1.4150
• December 2024 Consolidation 1.44 to 1.45

Support Levels:

• 200-Week MA 1.36378
• 2025 lows Support 1.35 to 1.36 (bearish below)
• September 2024 lows 1.34420
• 1.32 to 1.33 July 2023 Next Support

The Canadian Dollar has lost more than 25% of its value against the CHF since 2022 – But this trend looks to be reverting.

Contrarily to the more rangebound USD/CAD, momentum is taking a significant shift towards a rebounding trend after a weekly double-bottom and supported by a weekly bullish divergence.

The 50-Week MA will be the upcoming target for bulls who are attempting to grab control – Closing above it may easily relaunch the pair towards 0.60.

CAD/CHF Higher timeframe levels

Resistance Levels:

• Major Momentum Pivot 0.57 to 0.58 (50-Week MA 0.58133)
• 0.59 mini-resistance
• Next Key Resistance 0.60 to 0.6050
• 2024 Base Resistance 0.62 to 0.6270
• 2024 Major Resistance 0.64 to 0.64750 (200-Week MA)

Support Levels:

• All-Time Lows Support 0.56
• 0.56013 All-Time Lows
• Next Psychological Support 0.55

EUR/CAD is also seeing a significant shift in its trend throughout this week's break lower.

Now falling below its 50-Week Moving Average and crossing back below the significant 1.60 psychological level, sellers should remain in control all the way towards the 1.57 - 1.58 Major Support.

• Mean reversion there could assist a re-entry for further downside, particularly if prices retake the 1.59 level.
• Watch for selling acceleration on a weekly close below 1.57.

EUR/CAD Higher timeframe levels

Resistance Levels:

• 2020 Resistance Zone – 1.59 to 1.60
• 50-Week MA 1.6020
• Major Resistance at 2018 Highs – 1.61 to 1.6150
• Major Resistance at 2018 Highs – 1.63 to 1.64
• 16-Year high 1.64703

Support Levels:

• Upcoming support 1.57 to 1.58 Zone
• March 2025 Support Zone 1.5475 to 1.55
• Pre-Breakout Support 1.5150 to 1.52
• 2024 Major Support 1.46 to 1.4750

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• European equities have weakened sharply, with the Euro STOXX 50 falling 6% over two days before a modest rebound, while the DAX remains down 4.3% since 27 February amid heightened geopolitical tensions.
• Ongoing conflict involving Iran and military actions authorised in the United States Senate risk prolonging Middle East energy disruptions, potentially raising energy costs for the European Union and weighing on regional equities.
• Technically, the DAX appears to be forming a bearish flag below 24,350, suggesting Wednesday’s rebound may be a “dead cat bounce”; a break below 24,000 could trigger further downside toward the 23,750–23,290 support zone.

European stock markets have underperformed against their US peers at the start of this week, from Monday, 2 March 2026, to Tuesday, 3 March 2026, where the Euro STOXX 50 plummeted by 6%, recording its worst 2-day decline since early April 2025, when US President Trump unveiled his global US reciprocal tariffs.

On Wednesday, 4 March, the European equities managed to stage a comeback due to “bargain hunting”. The German DAX managed to end Wednesday’s session with a gain of 1.7%, with a similar magnitude seen in the Euro STOXX 50.

Overall, the European stock markets are still trading in the red since last Friday, 27 February till Wednesday, 4 March, where the German DAX recorded an accumulated loss of 4.3%, and fared better than several key Asia Pacific and Emerging Asia stock markets; South Korea’s KOSPI (-18.45), Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-7.8%), Taiwan’s TWI (-7.3%), and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (-5.2%) (see Fig. 1).

The European Union economy is dependent on the Middle Eastern liquefied natural gas, which accounted for approximately 3.5% to 3.8% of the EU's total gas supply in 2025.

The US-Iran war is still showing no signs of de-escalation, and the US Senate has cleared the way for President Donald Trump to continue military attacks on Iran in a vote.

Press briefings from the White House so far have offered little clarity on a potential endgame to the conflict, leaving the risk of prolonged oil and gas supply disruptions in the Middle East elevated. Such uncertainty could amplify energy price pressures and inflict near-term economic strain on the European Union, in turn detrimental to European stock markets.

Let’s now decipher the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of the German DAX from a technical analysis perspective.

Watch the 24,350 key short-term pivotal resistance (also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the steep decline from 27 February 2026 high to 3 March 2026 low), and a break below 24,000 (lower boundary of the “bearish flag” exposes the next intermediate supports at 23,750, 23,480, and 23,290 (a Fibonacci extension level) (see Fig. 2).

However, a clearance and an hourly close above 24,350 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 24,715 and 25,020.

• The 3.2% rally (low to high) seen on the Germany 30 CFD index (a proxy of the DAX futures) from the 3 March 2026 low of 23,592 has formed a potential minor “bearish flag” configuration, which suggests a “dead cat bounce” within a downtrend phase.
• The recent rally has stalled at the 200-day moving average.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
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• South Korea's KOSPI surged 9.63% to lead a strong rebound across Asia, fueled by optimism over potential US-Iran diplomatic progress.
• The pan-European STOXX 600 dipped 0.3%, weighed down by escalating geopolitical conflict.
• Upcoming eurozone retail data, an ECB speech, and key US labor data (Challenger job cuts) are expected to drive market focus and potentially further support the US Dollar.

Most Read: Chart alert: WTI crude oil bullish breakout above $78.10/barrel in play

Asian markets saw a stellar rebound this morning led by South Korea's benchmark KOSPI index surging 9.63% to close at 5,583.90.

This massive gain, which saw the index jump as much as 12.2% during intraday trading, effectively erased the majority of the record-breaking 12.06% loss suffered just a day prior.

Investor sentiment was primarily lifted by optimism surrounding potential diplomatic progress between the US and Iran. Major tech players led the recovery, as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix climbed 11.27% and 10.84% respectively, while LG Energy Solution posted a solid 6.91% gain.

The rally extended across the broader Asia-Pacific region, with the Nikkei jumping 4.2% and the MSCI’s broadest regional index (excluding Japan) rising 3.9%.

In China, the CSI300 and Shanghai Composite indices saw more modest gains of 1.4% and 1% as Beijing unveiled its 15th five-year plan. While the Chinese government set a slightly lower 2026 growth target of 4.5%–5% to focus on rebalancing the economy and addressing industrial overcapacity, the market was supported by pledges to boost innovation, high-tech sectors, and household consumption.

European markets softened on Thursday as the pan-European STOXX 600 dipped 0.3% to 610.72 points, paring back some of the significant gains made during Wednesday’s recovery.

Market sentiment was primarily dampened by the escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which entered its sixth day following fresh Iranian missile strikes and a U.S. Senate decision to continue its air campaign. This geopolitical tension hit the mining sector particularly hard, leading market losses with a 1.5% decline.

Beyond the geopolitical backdrop, a series of disappointing corporate earnings contributed to the downward trend.

Shares of the payments firm Nexi were halted after a record 11.3% plunge following its full-year results, while DHL saw a 5.4% drop after reporting a slide in fourth-quarter operating profit.

The US dollar resumed its upward trajectory on Thursday after a brief pullback.

Although the "greenback" briefly retreated earlier in the session on tentative hopes for a shorter conflict and the restoration of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, these gains were quickly reversed.

Ongoing hostilities between the US, Israel, and Iran, now in their sixth day kept investors cautious following a fresh wave of Iranian missile strikes.

Consequently, the dollar index rose 0.2% to 99.00, bringing its total weekly gain to nearly 1.4%.

This renewed strength in the dollar pressured several major currencies and digital assets. Both the euro and sterling slipped, falling 0.2% and 0.27% respectively, while the Japanese yen gave back its early morning gains to trade flat at 157.08 per dollar.

Commodity-linked currencies also felt the squeeze, with the Australian dollar dropping 0.35% and the New Zealand dollar declining 0.2%.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market saw a cooling period, as both Bitcoin and Ether shed over 1% each, paring back the significant gains they had recorded during the previous session.

Currency Power Balance

Energy markets continued their upward climb on Thursday. Brent crude rose 2.9% to reach $83.75 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumped 3.2% to $77.08.

This sustained rally is being driven by significant supply disruptions, forcing several major producers to slash output while others scramble to implement emergency security measures to protect global energy flows.

In the precious metals market, spot gold edged up 0.4% to $5,153.11 per ounce as investors sought safety amid the widening Middle East crisis. While the geopolitical instability provided a clear floor for bullion, further gains were capped by a rebounding US dollar.

The sentiment did not extend to industrial precious metals, however; silver tumbled 1.5% to $82.20 per ounce, while palladium and platinum also faced downward pressure, dropping 1.2% and 0.5% respectively.

Read More:

• NFP Preview: Jobs to drive volatility amid "operation epic fury" & implications for the DXY, Dow Jones
• Trade Idea: DAX eyes bullish recovery after 6% slide and retest of psychological 24000 handle
• Is Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) second $70k rejection a “buy the dip” opportunity?

As the trading day continues, markets remain cautious, shifting their focus toward upcoming eurozone retail and construction data, as well as an afternoon speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde for potential signals on future monetary policy.

Looking ahead to the US session, markets are bracing for a heavy data slate on Thursday, with the focus squarely on Challenger job cuts, initial jobless claims, and import prices.

The Challenger report is particularly high-stakes following a massive surge in January, which saw 108,435 announced layoffs, the highest for that month since 2009, leading many to watch for signs of a cooling labor market.

Given the prevailing economic uncertainty and the potential for these data points to signal a softening economy, many analysts suspect the US Dollar (DXY) could climb toward the upper end of its recent trading range.

Simultaneously, the currency market remains transfixed by the volatility of European natural gas prices. As the conflict in the Middle East threatens energy security and drives Dutch TTF futures sharply higher, the resulting inflationary pressure and risk-off sentiment are expected to provide additional support to the greenback. Should gas prices continue their upward trajectory today, the Dollar Index (DXY) will likely edge back toward the $99.40$–$99.50$ area, reinforcing its dominance as a safe-haven destination during global turmoil.

Lastly, keep a close watch on developments around the US and Iran. A short while ago reports stated that the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister has said they would be open to abandoning their nuclear program if the US can provide a good deal. No official confirmation on the comments, but as the saying goes “ where there's smoke, there's fire” rings true.

From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index fell around 500 odd points earlier this week.

The Index breached the 100-day MA before finding support at the 200-day MA resting around the 10400 handle.

Since then, the Index has bounced off the 200-day MA and is currently testing the 100-day MA

A break above above the 100-day MA is needed for bulls to seize the initiative. Otherwise we could see price continue to compress between the 100 and 200-day MAs.

Immediate support rests at 10500 before the 10439 (200-day MA) handle comes into focus.

Resistance to the upside at 10628 (100-day MA) needs to be cleared if bulls are to make a run for the 10728 handle and beyond.

FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, March 5, 2026

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• WTI crude extends bullish breakout: Prices surged about 19% since 26 Feb, reaching a 14-month high near $78, after breaking a 28-month descending resistance, with geopolitical tensions from the United States–Israel strikes on Iran acting as the key catalyst.
• Geopolitical risk underpinning the rally: Rising fears that Strait of Hormuz—which handles roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade—could be disrupted have pushed prediction-market odds of a closure to above 86%, reinforcing the bullish outlook for oil.
• Technical momentum still positive: WTI maintains a bullish structure above $73.38 support, and a break above $78.10 could extend the rally toward $80.30 and $83.60–$84.55, while a drop below support risks a pullback toward $69–$67.80 before the next potential upside leg.

This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart Alert: WTI crude oil bullish flag in play above $64.15 as US-Iran talk looms”, published on 26 February 2026.

The price actions of the West Texas (WTI) crude oil have staged the expected upside breakout from the minor bullish flag, as highlighted in our previous report.

In addition, WTI crude broke above a 28-month major descending resistance from 28 September 2023 swing high, gapped up above $71.33 on Monday, 2 March 2026, triggered by joint attacks by the US and Israel on Iran.

So far, WTI crude has rallied by around 19% since the publication of our last report on 26 February to print a 14-month intraday high of $78.06 on Tuesday, 3 March 2026.

Below are several key support factors that oil prices can continue to see further potential upside despite US President Trump’s assurance to provide naval escorts for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil flow chokepoint, to prevent any significant oil supply shock triggered by potential Iranian sabotage on oil tankers.

The Strait of Hormuz, situated between Oman and Iran, is a crucial maritime energy chokepoint, as it handles a quarter of the world's maritime oil trade and a fifth of the LNG trade, making it one of the most critical globally.

Based on the latest data from the prediction market platform Polymarket as of today (Thursday), 5 March 2026, as compiled by MacroMicro the probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 has increased to a current all-time high of 86.25%, surpassing the previous probability peak of 71.95% printed on 1 March 2026, during the onset of the latest US-Iran war (see Fig. 1).

Since the start of the probability trend of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in 2026, there has been a significant direct correlation with the movement of the WTI crude oil futures.

Hence, a fresh all-time high in terms of the probability of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz from Polymarket suggests that the ongoing short to medium-term bullish trend phases of WTI crude oil can persist.

Let’s now decipher the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of WTI crude oil from a technical analysis perspective.

Watch the tightened $73.38 key short-term pivotal support to maintain a bullish bias on the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures). A clearance above $78.10 increases the odds of the continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at $80.30 and $83.60/84.55 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 2).

On the other hand, failure to hold with an hourly close below $73.38 support negates the bullish tone for a potential minor corrective decline to retest the next intermediate support zone of $69.26/67.80 (also close to the rising 20-day moving average) before the next potential bullish leg materializes for the West Texas Oil CFD.

• Price actions have continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel since the 26 February 2026 low, with its lower boundary at around $73.38.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout above its former descending resistance and continued to trend higher above the 50 level. These observations suggest short-term bullish momentum remains intact.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Market expectations call for a significant deceleration in job growth (58k–65k), with sticky Average Hourly Earnings (+0.4% m/m) being the "danger zone" for potential stagflation.
• A strong NFP (> 100k) could see DXY rise toward 100.40 as rate cuts are priced out; a weak NFP (< 50k) could push DXY down toward 98.00 on bets of a Fed pivot.
• Dow Jones (DJIA) Implications, a moderate, "Goldilocks" number (70k–90k) would support equities, while a "Stagflation" shock (low jobs, high wages) or negative NFP would likely trigger a fresh sell-off.

Most Read: Trade Idea: DAX eyes bullish recovery after 6% slide and retest of psychological 24000 handle

Markets are gearing up for the March NFP release and yet focus ahead of the meeting is largely focused on the situation in the Middle East. Despite this, the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report remains the fundamental "north star" for the Federal Reserve.

Here is your preview for the March 6 jobs report and its expected impact on the markets.

The market narrative has shifted violently this week. The "AI honeymoon" period of early 2026 met a jarring reality as President Trump signaled that "Operation Epic Fury", the joint US-Israeli military campaign against Iran could be a protracted engagement.

With the Strait of Hormuz facing potential blockades and Brent crude surging into the $80s, the "low-hire, low-fire" labor regime is being tested by a new inflation shock channel: energy.

The immediate focus for Friday is whether the cooling labor market will provide the Fed enough cover to cut rates despite these rising inflationary risks.

Market expectations for the data (to be released March 6) suggest a significant deceleration from the previous month’s surprise strength:

NFP Headline Forecast: 58k – 65k (Down from January’s 130k).

Unemployment Rate: Expected to hold steady or edge up to 4.4%.

Average Hourly Earnings: Forecasted at +0.4% m/m. This is the "danger zone" for the Fed; sticky wage growth combined with high oil prices creates a stagflationary headache.

The "ADP Bellwether": Wednesday's ADP private payrolls came in at 63k, slightly beating the 50k estimate. However, a downward revision to the previous month’s figures dampened any bullish dollar sentiment, setting a cautious stage for Friday.

The DXY has been oscillating near the 99.50 resistance level, buoyed by safe-haven flows due to the Iran conflict.

• Bullish Scenario (NFP > 100k): A surprise beat would likely be interpreted as a sign of economic resilience. Traders would price out a March rate cut, potentially propelling the DXY toward the 100.40 barrier. In a "war economy," a strong labor market allows the Fed to keep rates high to fight energy-driven inflation.
• Bearish Scenario (NFP < 50k): A significant miss would validate the "hard landing" fears. The DXY could retreat toward the 98.00 support level as markets bet the Fed will be forced to pivot to support the economy, despite the geopolitical noise.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, March 4, 2026

The Dow has recently endured a "tailspin," including a 1,200-point intraday slide earlier this week. It currently hovers around the 48,500 mark.

• The "Goldilocks" Outcome (70k – 90k): Equities would likely cheer a moderate number. It would suggest the economy is cooling enough to justify future easing without signaling a total collapse in consumer demand. This could see the Dow reclaim the 49,000 handle.
• The "Stagflation" Shock (Low Jobs + High Wages): If payrolls miss (under 50k) but wage growth remains hot (+0.5% or higher), the Dow could face a fresh sell-off. This scenario traps the Fed: they cannot cut rates to help the economy because wages and oil are fueling inflation.
• The "Recession" Fear (Negative NFP): Any print near zero or negative would likely trigger a flight from equities into bonds and gold, as the narrative shifts from "geopolitical volatility" to "fundamental economic decay."

Dow Jones Daily Chart, March 4, 2026

The market will try to determine if the American worker is strong enough to withstand both the "Epic Fury" of geopolitics and the quiet encroachment of AI on traditional roles.

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global Markets
• North American Stock Markets are bouncing up again after a rough end to February
• Despite ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, risk-sentiment and NA currencies are holding strong

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.

When month-long anxiety gets met with not-so-terrific conditions, it provides an explosive but positive cocktail for Markets.

Since the beginning of 2026, Participants have been targeted by a cloudy mix of pessimistic factors that have hindered progress for risk assets: tariffs and Middle Eastern tensions.

About the former, the initial reaction to the Supreme Court decision to block IEEPA tariffs turned out to be a strict positive for most of the largest exporters, who saw their overall duties reduced to a general 15% – A much better picture compared to the 30% to 50% tariffs against countries like China, India, and Brazil.

This provided an initial kick to Equities over the past week and helped hold their support within their 5-month-long consolidation.

A new, still muted catalyst did start to show its fangs with Private Credit facing threats, outflows, and failures as economists project that we are nearing the peak of the economic cycle. This remains one of the most essential factors to monitor for future Stock Market investing.

About tensions in the Middle East, the US and Israel declared war against the Islamic Republic of Iran, after 47 years of tensions between the two sides.

Ever since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the Iranian regime pledged "Death to the USA, Death to Israel"; as revolts began in December 2025, a much-weakened approval for the strict regime led to brutal repressions, marking +30,000 casualties among the Iranian population.

Coinciding with the IRGC reaching alerting levels of Uranium enrichment, in the objective to develop Nuclear weapons, and a promise to defend the Iranian population, the US and Israel commenced a striking operation against military and regime targets in Iran.

Iran riposted against Israel, US positions, but also numerous Gulf countries all over the Middle East – Oil has since bounced about 10% - 15%, as supply fears grip the commodity's price.

What happens to the Strait of Hormuz and the evolution of WTI/Brent prices remains a angst factor for Markets.

Nevertheless, ongoing operations in the Middle East have been announced to be advancing well, taking some of the fear out of a prolonged war and helping Market sentiment – the US and Canadian Dollars have exploded to new highs since the beginning of the conflict.

On the sidenote, the Beige Book just got published, with the Fed expressing an increased pace of economic activity – It wouldn't be surprising to see rate cuts delayed further with the latest round of data.

Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap.

Read More:

• Fearless Markets are exploding higher – Dow Jones & US Index Outlook
• Gold (XAU/USD) marks a double top despite Iran conflict – Below $5,000 soon?
• Can Iran fully block the Strait of Hormuz?

Except for the Japanese Stock Market which turned victim of its own dynamics, US Indexes have remained close to their relative highs – Nasdaq is marginally up on the week, while Dow Jones retracted slightly.

Higher-beta Canadian Stocks retreated very slightly.

The US Dollar has exploded to new 2026 highs against most FX majors promptly after the beginning of the conflict.

Profit-taking has emerged just above the January peak, but momentum has since slowed down as sentiment turned around.

As long as the Dollar Index remains within the Key Pivot area, bulls remain in control.

Breaking 98.70 would hint at further downside.

Levels to place on your DXY charts:

Resistance Levels

• 99.40 to 99.50 January Resistance
• War Spike 99.68
• 100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highs
• 100.376 November highs

Support Levels

• 98.70 to 99.00 Key Pivot
• 98.00 Key Mid-Range Support
• Mid-range Pivot 97.40 to 97.60
• 2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00

The US Dollar is outperforming all FX Majors since the beginning of the Iran conflict in a general Petrodollar trade.

Explore our recent Dollar Analysis right here.

The Loonie actually exploded higher against all currencies, particularly against European currencies – It will remain an interesting currency to keep in sight for upcoming trading.

EUR/CAD just broke a major 1.60 Support.

USD/CAD is now heading lower after rejecting the upper bound of its descending channel.

Breaking (and closing below) 1.36250 to the downside would hint at a swift retest of the 1.3550 Support.

Levels of interest for USD/CAD:

Resistance Levels

• 1.3750 Pivotal Resistance (Channel top)
• 1.3770 to 1.38 Key Resistance
• Major Resistance 1.3870 to 1.39 (January highs)

Support Levels

• 1.3630 to 1.3660 Mid-Range Pivot
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support
• October 2024 Support 1.3450 to 1.35
• 1.3480 USD-Crash lows

The North American calendar towards next Wednesday will be heavy, particularly for US data – Friday will see the release of a Non-Farm Payrolls and Retail Sales combo, while next Tuesday will focus on US CPI.

And as always, keep a close eye on Middle East Developments.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US Stock Benchmarks absolutely smash previous days selling with huge rallies today
• Since Trump's security pledge in the Middle East, Stocks have been exploding
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

Global Stock Indexes remain undefeated, and no war nor Capital Market trouble seems to be providing damage in their ever-resilient rise.

No analyst or traders could have predicted such a resilient behavior from Investors amid the ongoing heavy War currently ongoing in the Middle East.

US and Israeli armies are certainly striking rough blows to the Islamic regime's military capacities; Recent communication from both the US President and Secretary of War are reassuring Participants in the fact that the ongoing conflict has low probabilities of repeating mistakes seen in Iraq or Afghanistan: A prolonged and damaging war, without much to count for it.

As expressed in our week-opening analysis, two of the most anxiety-prone elements in this war are how long it takes, and how heavy of an impact it has on Oil prices.

For now, the length of the war is projected to be lasting around 4 to 5 weeks – this still has the potential to change, but current updates sound optimistic.

On Oil, the commodity has somewhat stabilized in the $72 to $75 range (WTI). Yes, ships are scared to pass through Strait of Hormuz but the outlook isn't so grim right now with multiple reports of a damaged Iranian Navy.

Any explosion in Oil prices or complication in operations has the potential to dampen mood significantly – Black Gold is certainly the most volatility-prone element of them both.

Another element helping Equities is this morning's streak of positive US data, including a strong beat on US Services PMIs and ADP private employment.

This also tags along with strong rebounds in Global Stock Indexes, also starkly rebounding today with the Nikkei closing up 2% and European Benchmarks up about the same.

Let's spot if this move has the potential to last by diving into today’s mid-session charts and key trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Read More:

• Gold (XAU/USD) marks a double top despite Iran conflict – Below $5,000 soon?
• Trade Idea: DAX eyes bullish recovery after 6% slide and retest of psychological 24000 handle
• Can Iran fully block the Strait of Hormuz?

Defensive Blue Chips, traditionals and Energy Stocks are now seeing rejection as Wall Street turns a new rush towards Tech.

High-beta semiconductors and softwares are marking a decent recovery in the past week and leading Equities in their resilient run – They could indeed sustain less damage from any effect from a prolonged war; Actually, they would mostly benefit from high information flows and military need for technologies!

The DJIA is now breaking out of its descending channel but will face key hurdles at the 49,000 resistance zone and its 4H 50-period Moving Average just below (48,975).

The morning rally is nothing short of impressive, but some profit-taking seems to be going through as traders look for quick-trades amid ongoing uncertainty – And that is certainly a way to protect trading accounts!

• Rejecting the 4H MA would mark a rough stall in the middle of the range, indicative of further potential downside ahead.
• Breaking back above however relaunches hopes for an all-time high run!

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• 4H 50-period MA – 48,975
• 49,000 to 49,250 Key psychological resistance
• January ATH Resistance 49,500 to 49,700
• Index All-Time highs 50,512

Support Levels

• November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Morning Support
• Psychological Pivot at 48,000
• August Support 47,500 to 47,650
• 47,000 Next Main support
• 45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)

Nasdaq is indeed flexing its muscles by rebounding back above the key 25,000 level and bulls are not letting the Index correct.

Breaking the 200-period MA (25,170) would confirm the breakout and should hint at a swift run towards 25,500 – This stands as long as sentiment remains positive.

Keep a close eye on the tech sector!

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 4H 200-period MA 25,170
• Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,170 (testing)
• 25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistance

Support Levels

• Mini-intraday Pivot 24,750
• 24,400 to 25,600 Key Support (Range Support)
• February Support 24,150 to 24,300 – Morning lows
• October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 confirms its powerful range yet again, and will now face a strong test at the 6,900 Mid-Range resistance.

• Closing back above would point to a quick test of the 6,950 resistance.
• Rejecting it however could easily retest previous session's trough at 6,710.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Key Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900 (testing)
• Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975
• Current ATH 7,020
• All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)

Support Levels

• Mini-Pivot 6,820 to 6,840
• 6,770 to 6,800 Psychological Support
• Previous day lows 6,710
• February lows 6,710 to 6,730
• 6,680 to 6,700 Next Support
• 6,400 Major psychological support

Safe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold bulls have long been waiting for geopolitical troubles to justify the metal's record prices.

However, markets often play rough games with high expectations, as we recently saw with Nvidia and Microsoft earnings. This aligns with the adage "Buy the rumor, sell the news."

Similar profit-taking moves have previously occurred in silver, platinum, and palladium, so investors might have thought gold would be exempt, given its reputation as a true safe-haven.

However, the recent unexpected market behavior in relation to geopolitical conflict is surprising. Despite ongoing tensions and heavy military activity in the Middle East, stocks actually rallied after Trump assured the protection of the Strait of Hormuz.

Risk assets are decidedly rebounding, with cryptocurrencies surging to monthly highs as well as global Stock Markets; This proves how unusual these war flows have been.

So, why are safe havens selling off?

The US Department of Defense has certainly demonstrated its capabilities to rapidly damage key Iranian positions, alongside the Israeli Air Force.

Investors fear a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, so the idea of shorter operations is providing a sense of relief, as reflected in the market.

Investors also just received yet another report of US economic strength with another beat in Services PMI (56.1 vs 53.5 estimates), along with firming Private ADP Employment. Difficult to justify metal-boosting rate cuts with such solid data.

Friday will provide more clarity on that aspect with the monthly NFP data for February; Expect this one to rock Market expectations again!

Let’s conduct a multi-timeframe analysis of gold, as its recent price action has formed a double top. Will this signal the start of a real downtrend?

Read More:

• Can Iran fully block the Strait of Hormuz?
• Chart alert: Risk-off persists on Strait of Hormuz fears, EUR/CHF eyeing 0.9010 key bearish breakdown level
• Trump guarantees maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz: Markets U-turn on Navy escort pledge

Gold is now facing high-importance hurdles ahead.

After failing to regain its January $5,600 top despite the fundamental shift, sellers could now take the upper hand. This could particularly be the case when looking at the Weekly RSI forming a bearish divergence.

However, a counter-argument could maintain demand for Gold – Remaining above its Key weekly pivot zone, particularly above $5,100, proves that the action can still remain in balance on the higher timeframe.

Any break lower will also see streaks of support, with the most immediate major support a the December highs around $4,550.

Gold sends out a more gloomy picture on the Daily timeframe, with the two recent bearish candles located at relative spikes forming a double-top.

While today's small rebound shows hesitancy, looking forward, as long as bulls can't manage to overtake the $5,379 highs from yesterday, technicals point to downside ahead.

Crossing back below $5,100 would allow sellers to re-take control of the short-term action, hinting at a retest of the mid-Feb lows ($4,844).

Breaking this level would then mark an official re-entry within the 2025 bull channel – $4,200 is its current lower bound (however it remains far from now).

Support Levels:

• $5,100 Major Pivot turned support (Short-term: sellers in control below – Testing)
• $4,850 to $4,900 Key Support (Mid-Feb Lows)
• Pivotal Support and December record $4,400 to $4,500 (Bearish below)
• Channel lows $4,200

Resistance Levels:

• $5,250 Pivot Zone (+/- $50)
• $5,400 Wartime Resistance
• Current All-time Highs Resistance – $5,500 to $5,600

Gold is now rejecting its intraday key 50-period moving average acting as resistance.

A key test of the upward trendline will provide a last chance for bulls to re-take the short-term hand, before the double top materializes into a more consequential correction.

Watch for a break and 4H close below $5,100.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
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• DAX is attempting a recovery following a 6% drop.
• The global energy shock is fueling stagflation anxiety, notably causing a record 12% plummet in the South Korean KOSPI index.
• Market performance is mixed: Technology and defense stocks are providing upward momentum, while disappointing earnings from Adidas and Bayer are weighing on the index.
• The technical outlook is bullish, with buyers returning to test the 24000 psychological level, hinting at a potential move to the upside.

Read More: Is Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) second $70k rejection a “buy the dip” opportunity?

The DAX index is attempting a recovery today following two sessions of aggressive selling driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Market sentiment saw a slight boost after President Trump suggested the US Navy might escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic chokepoint currently remains at a standstill, causing significant disruptions to global energy flows.

Despite the diplomatic overtures, oil prices have continued their ascent climbing 14.5% so far this week, while European natural gas prices have surged a staggering 60% over the last two days following the shutdown of Qatari LNG facilities and the closure of the Strait.The economic impact of these spikes is being felt acutely across energy-dependent regions.

While the DAX shed 6% over the last two sessions, the South Korean Kospi plummeted 12% overnight, reflecting a growing global anxiety over potential stagflation. This is the KOSPI benchmarks largest drop on record as South Korea is heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil.

Over two days the tech-heavy index has lost more than 18% of its value while the currency KRW has slumped to a 17-year low.

The trajectory of the market now hinges on the duration of the conflict and whether energy prices ease. A prolonged standoff increases the risk of a sustained energy shock, which could cement the stagflationary pressures currently being priced in by traders.

According to sources, Qatar would need 2 weeks to restart gas liquefaction after a full shutdown. Once restarted, Qatar would need at least another 2 weeks to reach full capacity, which could lead to a temporary shock in prices if the conflict was to reach a swift conclusion.

Performance within the DAX remains a mixed bag of sector-specific reactions and corporate earnings.

Technology stocks are providing some upward momentum, with Infineon Technologies rising 3.7%, while defense stocks are seeing a modest recovery.

However, individual earnings reports are weighing on the index; Adidas shares dropped 7% on disappointing results (now down 5%), and Bayer fell 4.76% after providing a weak 2026 profit outlook that overshadowed a fourth-quarter earnings beat.

The DAX selloff saw the index drop below the psychological 24000 handle for the first time since December 2025.

The foray has proved short-lived thus far with buyers returning as the index tested the descending channel it broke out of in December 2025.

On the daily chart, the current daily candle is eyeing a close back above 24000 while at the same time printing an inside bar hammer candle.

This would hint at a move to the upside in the days ahead.

DAX Index Daily Chart, March 4, 2026

For those looking to get involved, we drop down to a one-hour chart.

Price is caught between the 20 and 50-day MAs with a retest of the 24000 handle presenting the best risk to reward opportunity for would be bulls.

If such a pullback does not materialize, traders may wait for a break of the 50-Day MA at 24210 and look for an opportunity to get involved with targets resting at the 100-day MA around 24700 and potentially 25000 as well.

DAX Index, One-Hour Chart, March 4, 2026

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensified after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened attacks on vessels attempting to pass through the strait, triggering a rise in oil and gas prices and worsening shipping conditions.
• Markets remain relatively calm because investors believe a full and sustained blockade is unlikely due to Iran’s limited military capabilities and the economic costs such a move would impose on Iran and its key trading partners.
• Asian economies would be the most affected by any disruption, with China receiving about 38 percent of the oil transported through the strait, followed by India, South Korea, Japan, and other Asian countries.
• Current global oil supply conditions, including spare production capacity and inventories, could help stabilize the market for several weeks, although prolonged conflict would likely push energy prices significantly higher.
• Around 40 supertankers are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf, highlighting the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one fifth of global oil supply and LNG trade passes each day.
• Brent crude oil has gained over 14 per cent since Monday, reaching USD 85 per barrel on Tuesday. The US dollar is benefiting on the currency market. So far, Asian stock markets have lost the most (KOSPI is down 12 per cent today), while the sell-off is also evident in Europe (DAX lost 3.5 per cent yesterday) and moderate in the US.

In recent hours tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have risen again after a statement by the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who announced that the route had been closed and threatened attacks on vessels attempting to pass through this strategic chokepoint. The reaction of the markets was immediate. Oil and gas prices increased, and the situation for shipping in the region deteriorated further.

Despite this, we are not seeing a classic market panic. The main reason is the widespread belief among investors that a full and lasting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains an unlikely scenario. The market assumes that Iran neither has sufficient economic incentives nor the full military capabilities required to maintain a complete closure of this crucial energy corridor.

From an economic perspective such a move would also be unfavorable for Iran itself as well as for its key trading partners, including India and China. From a military standpoint maintaining a full blockade would require significant resources and a sustained escalation involving sea mines, torpedoes, and drones. So far the incidents observed have been selective and episodic rather than part of a broad and systematic operation.

Data on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz clearly show which regions would be most exposed to potential disruptions. The largest recipient of crude transported through this route is China, which accounts for roughly 38 percent of the total volume passing through the strait.

India is the second largest destination, receiving about 15 percent of the oil shipped through this corridor. Other Asian economies together account for around 14 percent, followed by South Korea with 12 percent and Japan with approximately 11 percent.

Only a very small share of oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Europe, which represents roughly 3 percent of total flows. These figures indicate that any disruption in this region would hit Asian economies the hardest, as they remain the most dependent on energy supplies from the Middle East.

Another factor moderating the market reaction is the current supply situation in the global oil market. There is still some surplus supply, and available spare production capacity together with existing inventories could, according to some estimates, stabilize the market for at least three weeks without severe disruptions. However, if the conflict were to persist for a longer period, the upward pressure on energy prices could intensify significantly.

The situation is somewhat different in the European gas market. Gas storage levels remain historically low, averaging around 30 percent, and in Germany and France they are only slightly above 20 percent. This explains the stronger reaction of gas prices and the greater pressure on European equity markets.

A scenario involving a full blockade would have serious consequences for all sides. Iran would have to expect an immediate and decisive military response. The Gulf states would face disruptions to their exports of crude oil and liquefied natural gas, which would translate into declining revenues. Global financial markets would likely experience an almost immediate shock through rising commodity prices, inflationary pressure, and a sharp shift in expectations regarding monetary policy.

It is important to note, however, that Iran does not need to impose a complete blockade in order to create significant disruptions. Even the current tensions have already caused a sharp increase in insurance and freight costs for vessels linked to Israel or the United States, in some cases rising twenty or even thirty times. Some insurers have temporarily suspended coverage or are refusing to insure new vessels until the situation stabilizes.

The situation was partially stabilized by a statement from US President Donald Trump, who announced that if necessary the US Navy would escort tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, the US government plans to introduce a system of insurance guarantees for ships transporting oil and other strategic goods.

The president announced that the government backed financial institution US International Development Finance Corporation will offer such insurance at what he described as a very reasonable price, in order to maintain the flow of energy and support international trade. In a post on social media he emphasized that regardless of the circumstances the United States will ensure the free flow of energy worldwide. The goal of these measures is to reduce the risk of a global energy crisis. Nevertheless, investors are aware that implementing such a mechanism may take time and that transportation costs for energy are likely to increase.

At present around 40 very large crude carriers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. Each of these vessels can transport roughly 2 million barrels of oil, which means that potentially around 80 million barrels of crude are currently stuck in the region.

The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for global energy markets is enormous. Every day approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products pass through this narrow passage, representing about one fifth of global oil production and more than one quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade.

In addition, roughly one fifth of global liquefied natural gas supplies also transit through the strait, much of it originating from Qatar.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Risk-off persists despite US assurances: Markets remain defensive even after Trump pledged naval escorts and insurance guarantees for Hormuz-bound tankers. Asian equities slid sharply, while WTI crude climbed toward $76 and gold advanced, reflecting ongoing geopolitical anxiety.
• Hormuz closure fears intensify: The probability of Iran shutting the Strait of Hormuz has risen above 70%, heightening concerns of a supply shock that could push oil toward $100, tighten global liquidity, and increase recession risks.
• Swiss franc regains haven appeal: CHF is stabilising as EUR/CHF drifts lower within a descending channel. A break below 0.9010 could trigger further downside, while 0.9130 caps near-term recovery attempts.

Risk-off sentiment continues to prevail in today’s Asia session, despite US President Trump’s assurance to provide naval escorts for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil flow chokepoint, and the US International Development Finance Corporation's offer to provide insurance guarantees for energy transportation vessels.

Here are the intraday performances of key asset classes at the time of writing:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures down around 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively

Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 3.8%

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index down 2.6%

China’s CSI 300 down 1%

West Texas crude oil up 1.5% to around $76 per barrel

Gold (XAU/USD) up 1.4% to around $5,160 per oz

US Dollar Index up 0.1%

Japanese yen almost unchanged at 157.55 per dollar

Swiss franc almost unchanged at 0.7820 per dollar

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) down 0.2% to around 68,215

The ultimate aim is to mitigate a significant oil supply shock that can trigger an upward spiral in WTI crude to $100/barrel, in turn, creating a liquidity squeeze in the global markets (a less dovish Fed or worse still a hawkish Fed) that can see “undiscriminating” selling of all asset classes that rally significantly in the past year such as precious metals (gold and silver), Asia Pacific equities (e.g., South Korea’s KOSPI 200 that recorded a whopping year-to-date gain of 48% as of 27 February 2026).

Market participants are still concerned that the ongoing US-Iran war may prolong with a higher risk of oil supply disruption that increases the odds of a global recession.

The Strait of Hormuz is located between Oman and Iran, and a quarter of the world's maritime oil trade and a fifth of the LNG trade must pass through, making it one of the most critical maritime energy chokepoints globally.

Based on the latest data from the prediction market platform Polymarket as of 4 March 2026, as compiled by MacroMicro, the probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 has continued to increase to 70.35% from 68.25% a day earlier on 3 March when Trump highlighted his assurances on insurance guarantees and naval escorts for oil tankers passing through it (see Fig. 1).

Despite the risk of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervening on Monday, 3 March to slow down the pace of appreciation of the Swiss franc, which has rallied remarkably (up by 5% from 16 January 2026 to 27 January 2026 against the US dollar) before last Saturday’s first joint missile strike in Iran by the US and Israel, the CHF has started to gain some footing as the Swiss franc is now up by 0.2% against the euro and almost unchanged when paired with the US dollar on a 1-day rolling performance basis (see Fig. 2).

Let’s now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the EUR/CHF from a technical analysis.

The price actions of the EUR/CHF have continued to oscillate within a medium-term descending channel in place since 14 January 2026 high (as seen from its 1-hour chart).

Watch the 0.9130 short-term pivotal resistance, with a bearish bias towards the 0.9010 key medium-term downside trigger level (see Fig. 3).

A break below 0.9010 may unleash another round of multi-week bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 0.8990 and 0.8960 in the first steps.

However, a clearance and an hourly close above 0.9130 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 0.9150 and 0.9180.

• Price actions have staged a bearish reaction right at its downward-sloping 20-day moving average (see Fig. 3).
• The hourly MACD trend indicator has continued to trend downwards below its centreline which suggests the minor downtrend phase of the EUR/CHF remains intact (see Fig. 3).
• The daily RSI momentum indicator remains capped below a pull-back resistance at around the 44 level, which indicates a lack of medium-term bullish momentum, lowering the odds of a medium-term bullish reversal on the EUR/CHF (see Fig. 4).

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets just took a massive U-turn following a critical address from President Trump.

The US President delivered a lengthy morning speech from the White House, providing further details on the ongoing military operations in Iran.

The core message centered on preemptive defense, with the President stating he "felt strongly that Iran was going to attack first," justifying the administration's recent escalations to secure American interests in the region – He noted a significant progress in operations, which initially stalled the Petrodollar panic move in Markets.

However, what truly helped markets shed their persistent morning anxiety was an early afternoon post from the President on Truth Social.

Trump announced a pledge to establish a major security framework to protect commercial shipping routes across the Arabian Sea, with a specific focus on the highly vulnerable Strait of Hormuz.

The immediate reaction in the commodities space was swift.

Oil prices violently retreated by nearly 7% shortly after the announcement before mean-reverting higher.

With WTI currently hovering right around Monday's gap-up levels, broader market sentiment is still looking significantly smoother than it was at the opening bell.

The technical and fundamental picture looks vastly different now compared to the early hours of the session. Let's break down exactly what changed.

Discover:

• The War-Petrodollar trade extends – Oil jumps, Dollar to 2026 highs
• Gold’s (XAU/USD) $5000 Retest: Rate cut fears and dollar surge lead to 5% selloff
• Stocks get caught in the crossfire – Dow Jones & US Index Outlook
• Is Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) second $70k rejection a “buy the dip” opportunity?

Financial Markets are getting rocked from the latest developments, but reactions have remained relatively contained.

Oil has been subject to aggressive movement in today's session particularly.

After initially exploding back to its June 2025 highs in a move that left other assets in the dust, crude eased its progress throughout the North American morning session.

What followed however was a significant sweep lower.

Knowing that Oil and Strait of Hormuz dynamics were the main contributors to Market panic, it isn't surprising to see such movement and easing in Sentiment.

Metals however remain much lower, as Market security leads to further profit-taking in the safe-havens

Gold and Silver both eased significantly in today's session. They attempted a move higher but this hasn't materialized yet.

The US Dollar also eased quite significantly after the comments – It relates overall to an over-extended move, which actually did retrace all the way to the 99.00 as forecasted in our morning Dollar Index analysis!

It wouldn't be surprising to see a Dollar rebound around here – However, it seems that momentum towards the end-afternoon is heavily slowing.

Tomorrow's session should bring further clarity there.

The better sentiment was demarcated particularly well in US Stock Benchmarks which saw a fresh buying wave in the final hour.

They have been very unpredictable – But that's the way Markets are in these types of environments.

The rally in the Dow has been nothing short of impressive.

Nasdaq and S&P 500 both saw similar rises – However, US Indexes are now back to their relative resistance levels – The DJIA is actually testing the highs of its downward channel!

Extending higher from there would imply a better risk-sentiment ahead. Failing to do would provide a sweet spot for profit-taking.

Safe Trades and keep track of the evolution of the conflict ahead!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Bitcoin failed its second attempt at a $70,000 breakout.
• Institutional investors, including Michael Saylor and Anthony Pompliano, are continuing to "buy the dip" and increase their BTC holdings.
• The medium to long-term technical outlook is starkly divided, with forecasts suggesting a painful crash to $40,000–$50,000 or a significant recovery toward $150,000.

Most Read: Stocks get caught in the crossfire – Dow Jones & US Index Outlook

Bitcoin finds itself at a crossroads having recorded its second failed attempt at breaking above the $70000 level. Having flirted with the $70000 handle yesterday, Bitcoin has since retraced, trading near $67,800 as investors grapple with the fallout of escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The tensions in the Middle East have seen risk-off sentiment dominate the agenda, while a stronger US Dollar and rate cut expectations being pared back are also weighing on Bitcoin. This concern is echoed when looking at the fear and greed index which is hovering in extreme fear territory at present.

The primary story for Bitcoin today is the sharp rejection at the $70000 resistance level. After a robust 4% rally on Monday driven by renewed spot ETF inflows and a shift back toward risk-on sentiment in the Asian and European sessions, the momentum hit a wall.

The catalyst for the pullback appears to be the "melt-down" in global stock markets triggered by escalating conflict involving Iran. Traditionally viewed by some as "digital gold," Bitcoin’s behavior today more closely mirrored that of a high-risk asset.

As geopolitical uncertainty spiked, traders moved toward the safety of the US dollar and physical gold (which has climbed toward $5,247 per ounce), although Gold prices saw a selloff today as prices dropped around 5%+.

Read More: Gold’s (XAU/USD) $5000 Retest: Rate cut fears and dollar surge lead to 5% selloff

Michale Saylor made his feelings clear today when he announced a fresh Bitcoin purchase. He is not the only one who is involved in institutional buying.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy): Led by Michael Saylor, the firm completed its 101st Bitcoin purchase, adding 3,015 BTC for approximately $204 million. This brings their total treasury to a staggering 720,737 BTC.

ProCap Financial: Under Anthony Pompliano, ProCap added 450 BTC to its balance sheet, raising its total holdings to 5,457 coins.

While the "paper price" is suffering due to macro fears, the "on-chain" reality shows long-term holders are not distributing. Instead, the supply of freely circulating coins continues to tighten, which could magnify the next move upward once the geopolitical dust settles.

The short-term outlook remains neutral with a bearish bias. Technical analysts point to immediate support levels at $66396 (50-day MA) and $65000.

If these fail to hold, a revisit to the $63,000 range is likely.

A break and four-hour candle close above the $70000 mark could open the door for a move toward $71673 before the $75000 handle comes into focus.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, March 3, 2026

The long-term forecasts, however, present a starkly divided view:

1. The Bearish Correction: Elliott Wave is flashing a warning that Bitcoin may be entering a "Wave 2" correction. This model suggests a potential "bull trap" relief rally back toward $100,000, followed by a final, painful crash to the $40,000–$50,000 range to wash out late-cycle leverage.

The Bullish Divergence: Contrarily, the "Harmonic Oscillator" and Bitcoin’s valuation relative to gold. With Bitcoin currently trading at a significant discount compared to gold’s market cap, historical Z-score data suggests that BTC could be primed for a 150% to 300% recovery within the next year, potentially targeting $150,000.

For the moment, the "Iran war" narrative is weighing heavy on the markets, keeping the $70,000 ceiling firmly in place. However, with Michael Saylor and Anthony Pompliano continuing to buy the sell-off, the "floor" for Bitcoin may be higher than many skeptics realize.

Market participants should watch the $65,000 support level closely; a daily close above $70,000 remains the key to unlocking the next phase of the bull market.

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US Stock Benchmarks see bloodshed in morning action
• Sentiment takes a turn lower as Traders price in a more brutal conflict ahead
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

US indexes demonstrated surprising resilience in yesterday's trading but ultimately could not withstand the global selling waves.

These market movements do not resemble a typical flight to safety, as even Gold and US Treasuries are falling off during today's rally in the dollar and oil prices.

The Petrodollar and its close counterpart, WTI, spiked to new cycle highs overnight, negatively impacting most global assets.

We are now seeing the pricing in of slowed global trade, inflationary fears, and supply shocks in both the dollar and energy commodities.

War-related trades tend to unfold in phases as participants seek to identify which assets will be most affected.

Currently, a flight to safety does not appear to be the prevailing sentiment, as the conflict is still expected to remain localized in the Middle East.

Still, it is surprising to observe traditional safe havens being rejected amid such geopolitical turmoil, but we are living in unprecedented times.

Could this present an opportunity?

For the moment, the harsh price movements do not support that idea.

What is certain is that stock markets do not have a bright outlook and may remain under pressure for the foreseeable future, particularly since supply shocks typically benefit specific stakeholders, like Defense Producers and Energy stocks, rather than the broader market.

Increased traffic slowdowns in the Strait of Hormuz could hinder economic activity in the coming weeks.

Let's see how the geopolitical situation affects current flows by diving into today’s mid-session charts and key trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Read More:

The Stock Market outlook is bleak. It's a general selloff around all sectors, with only Softwares and Information Technology rebounding in today's session – These sectors would generally be isolated from war flows; They could actually benefit from increased information flows and need for tech as modern warfare involves such sectors more than ever.

As suggested in our past-day Market analysis, sellers entered at the Gap-fill level back towards the 47,500 Support (+/- 100 Points).

The action is now forming a clear downward channel, with buyers mean-reverting back towards the 48,000 Pivot Zone, supported by a pullback in Oil prices.

The 48,400 to 48,500 Resistance zone will act as a major test ahead – Coming in at the upper bound of the Channel, rejecting it could lead to a drop back to 47,000.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Key-Resistance
• Mini-Resistance 48,660 to 48,740 (Friday lows)
• 49,000 Gap fill and Key psychological resistance
• Index All-Time highs 50,512

Support Levels

• Psychological Pivot at 48,000 (weak support – watch if close above or below)
• Morning lows 47,605
• August Support 47,500 to 47,650 (Morning Bounce)
• 47,000 Next Main support
• 45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)

Nasdaq is remaining surprisingly resilient compared to the Dow. The 24,500 Support Zone acted as significant support.

Still, the Index evolves within a large downward channel and is currently testing its mid-level. Rejecting here would be a bearish sign, and the move would accelerate further if prices break the morning lows (24,300).

The next support would be found at October lows (23,800 to 24,000).

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Morning highs and immediate test 24,615 (watch for rejection)
• Mini-intraday Pivot 24,750
• Channel highs 24,900
• Key Resistance 25,000

Support Levels

• 24,400 to 25,600 Key Support (Range Support)
• February Support 24,150 to 24,300 – Morning lows
• October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 is now holding below its significant 6,800 are.

Attempting a mean-reversion bounce, this psychological provides a major level for momentum ahead:

• Closing above 6,800 on the session could help for a wider rebound to at least 6,840
• However, rejecting it could open the door for 6,680.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 6,770 to 6,800 Psychological Pivot
• Mini-Resistance 6,820 to 6,840
• Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975
• Current ATH 7,020
• All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)

Support Levels

• February Support 6,720 to 6,750
• Morning lows 6,710
• February lows 6,710 to 6,730 (Morning lows)
• 6,680 to 6,700 Next Support
• 6,400 Major psychological support

Safe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Gold (XAU/USD) plunged 5%, surprisingly ignoring the escalating safe-haven demand from the Middle East conflict.
• The selloff is primarily driven by rising oil prices sparking inflation fears, which led to reduced Fed rate cut expectations and a surging US Dollar.
• The technical outlook focuses on the $5000/oz retest, will bulls return or not?

Read More: Geopolitics and Crude: Why WTI pulled back despite escalating Middle East risks

The price of gold has fallen 5% on Tuesday as a combination of profit taking and a US Dollar surge appear to be weighing on the precious metal. This is a surprise given the tension in the Middle East where regional escalation appears to be coming to fruition.

The Middle East has seen a sharp escalation in conflict following a series of coordinated strikes and diplomatic withdrawals.

On Tuesday, explosions rocked Tehran and Beirut, while Iranian drones targeted the US embassy in Saudi Arabia, resulting in a fire and minor structural damage. This follows a similar drone strike on the US mission in Kuwait, prompting Washington to shutter both embassies and order the evacuation of non-emergency personnel and their families across the region.

As the violence intensifies, the strategic scope of the war has become clearer. Despite recent ambiguous statements from President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the conflict's duration, sources indicate that Israel’s campaign is moving faster than its initial two-week timeline. The primary objective is reportedly the removal of Iran’s clerical leadership, a goal for which there is currently no firm deadline.

The theater of war has also expanded into Lebanon, where Hezbollah forces have engaged Israel, triggering retaliatory air strikes and the reinforcement of Israeli ground positions in the south. In Beirut, heavy smoke and constant explosions have come to define the skyline, with local authorities reporting dozens of casualties as the fighting spreads.

The conflict appears to be escalating which in theory should benefit haven demand and thus Gold prices. However, today's selloff in Gold has market participants in a state of confusion.

This begs the question, what is driving the selloff in Gold?

The simple answer may lie in inflationary concerns due to the rise in Oil prices.

WTI is up around 14% since the start of the week and this has led to concerns about the impact this may have on inflation down the road. Markets are paying attention to this and it is having an impact on rate cut expectations for the Federal Reserve.

Just last week markets were pricing in around 60bps of rate cuts through December 2026, that number has now dropped to around 46bps of cuts, according to the latest LSEG data. The number had dropped to around the 40bps mark earlier in the day.

Mixed messaging from Fed officials today added to the concerns around inflation. Fed policymaker Schmid reiterated his concerns that demand is outpacing supply and that there is no room for complacency. However, Fed policymaker Williams struck a more upbeat tone, stating that recent inflation data has been reassuring.

It appears for now, inflationary concerns are driving a lot of volatility.

This coupled with the US dollar rising significantly as well appears to be weighing on the precious metal. The dollar appears to be the winner from safe haven flows at this stage as the Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 6 week highs and approaching the psychological 100.00 level.

Another factor to consider is potential profit taking. After the surge in Gold prices after the weekend and at the start of the week, market participants could be locking in gains. This would lead to a drop off in the price of Gold as well and could be contributing to today's 5% decline.

From a technical standpoint, looking at the H4 chart for gold below and a $5000/oz retest has taken place.

This key psychological barrier needs to hold if bulls are to return and recover some of today's losses.

We have seen a bounce already with gold trading at $5095/oz at the time of writing. This has brought the price of the precious metal back to test the 100-day MA which rests around the $5090/oz mark.

A move beyond this may find resistance at the previous swing low around the $5128/oz handle before the 50-day MA at $5179/oz comes into focus.

A move lower here will first need to record a four-hour candle close below the $5000/oz handle before a retest of support at $4965/oz and the swing low from February 17,, which rests around the $4850/oz handle.

Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, March 3, 2026

Dropping down to a 15-minute chart given how quickly price is moving at the moment may provide further insight.

Looking at the chart below, I have drawn in two descending trendlines, an outer and inner one.

These trendlines may be used in conjunction with your own analysis to track a potential rebound and find trading opportunities.

Gold (XAU/USD) 15M Chart, March 3, 2026

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The US Dollar is catching up to its safe-haven status as the Middle East conflict heats up
• Fears of a prolonged intervention and high impact on Oil prices are boosting the Petrodollar status
• Dollar Index Technical Analysis ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls

Today's Market action is sending out a warning to global Markets – Despite a relatively smooth opening on Monday, things will not be so simple for what could be the most significant conflict in a few decades.

The reassurance of a "4-week" only intervention could prove to be a long shot, as Basij and IRGC forces begin to turn their operations away from their traditional military bases towards civilian infrastructures such as schools, mosques, and more.

Strikes towards the Iranian military command are continuous, and this is proving to be quite a significant turn as Iranian retaliations keep striking Gulf countries with drones and ballistic missiles.

The Market could be pricing in the broader conflict ahead, as Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned, and this is reflected in the broad risk aversion and the rise in global Oil prices – Global Stock Markets are down between 2% and 7%!

Brent is now trading well above its 12-Day War $77 spike – currently around $83.

WTI is on its way towards its June peak ($78.43) and stands close to 2% below that level. The morning spike is now somewhat easing, but tensions are certainly gripping participants and will do so for the time ahead.

Oil is the product to watch to track Market sentiment. Extending above June-War highs implies further detriment in sentiment ahead. If sellers can bring prices back below $73.50, risk sentiment should somewhat recover.

Now turning back to the Petrodollar case – As pointed out in this excellent piece, Fuel prices exploding around the world would make the case for swift dollar demand.

Importers will face a greater need for dollars to sustain demand, which not only hurts major importers' currencies but could also create a dollar shortage as participants remain heavily short the reserve currency.

For now, Oil is up "only" 15% from its Friday close. Catastrophic scenarios point to $100 a barrel if the conflict stays heated for long. The longer the war, the more damaging it would be to economies and inflation, and the higher the dollar could shoot.

We’ll explore this effect through an in-depth technical analysis of the Dollar Index (DXY).

Discover:

• Wartime is back in Markets – North American Session Market Wrap for March 2
• A look around Markets as Iran operations begin – Market reactions
• Oil prices jump on mid-east attacks, safe-haven demand surges & week ahead

The Dollar has spiked significantly since its 98.00 week-long consolidation, as traders were already pricing in an immediate intervention.

As it materialized, the Greenback broke out even further, extending its gains towards 2026 highs against all major currencies.

It now faces a key test at the 99.50 Resistance zone – Let's look at its effect on the 1H timeframe after marking a few key levels for action.

Watch out for some short-term mean reversion in the Dollar – Looking at the swift flows, it could be difficult to expect a real reversion lower – The 99.00 Level could be a decent pullback level to get long the dollar.

• CHF/USD, EUR/USD or AUD/USD could be interesting conditionally to them retreating – Watch out to not put all your eggs in the same basket!

Levels to place on your DXY charts:

Resistance Levels

• 99.40 to 99.50 January Resistance (immediate rejection, short-term pullback)
• 99.68 Morning highs – breaching this on high volume should see heavy continuation!
• 100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highs
• 100.376 November highs
• 101.00 Next key resistance

Support Levels

• 99.00 Key psychological Support
• 98.00 Key Mid-Range Support and 50-MA 98.00
• 2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00 (mini-range lows, 4H 50-MA)
• Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.00

The 1H timeframe shows a slightly over-extended move higher, implying a short-term pullback ahead.

The 99.00 Level could prove a sweet spot to catch up on the trend.

• Breaking below the trendline is still possible, but a real reversal lower would only be confirmed below 98.80!
• Breaking back above the 99.68 morning highs would point to a continued breakout.
  • Look at November highs (100.368) in that scenario.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 2

Another day in the mid-2020s, another wild session for Markets.

The world learnt that a military intervention in Iran had commenced on Saturday, where US and Israeli forces began striking the government and army infrastructures of the Islamic regime in Iran.

The conflict had been foreshadowed for a while now, with historic revolts in the Persian region that saw brutal repression, leading to +30,000 deaths (casualty numbers are from late January, no official update since).

President Trump had expressed that he would not allow the regime to persecute its citizens. The history of the US-Iran conflict now comes a long way, with the Mullahs taking power in 1979 and declaring that one of their core beliefs and motives is: "Death to America, death to Israel".

Ali Khamenei, the successor of Ruhollah Khomeini and Ayatollah of Iran, was killed during the first hours of the conflict.

The Iranian regime had since established a spiderweb influence against Western civilizations through repression and ideology, notably sponsoring militias like Hamas, the Houthis in Yemen, supporting the Al-Assad regime in Syria, and others like Hezbollah in Lebanon, which entered the conflict this morning – Their leader also got killed this morning. Iran has also been a long-time partner of Russia and a provider of weapons in their conflict against Ukraine.

The conflict already spread to the UAE, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and other Gulf countries that were targeted as retaliation by the IRGC.

What concerns Markets are the impact of a prolonged war, particularly on Oil and inflation expectations. This concerns particularly the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 20% of global Energy commodities flow, particularly towards the Asian continent.

The weekly Globex open saw significant gaps higher in Oil, Natural Gas, and most energy products; the opposite was seen in Global Stock Market futures, which then recovered particularly in the North American session, while the US Dollar ran higher, buoyed by safe-haven inflows into the Reserve Currency.

Paradoxically, the risk-off flows did not sustain bids in Bonds, which retracted significantly from their Friday close. Let's discover more Market flows right below.

Read More:

• War begins, Wall Street unfazed (for now!) – Dow Jones and US Stocks outlook
• Geopolitics and Crude: Why WTI pulled back despite escalating Middle East risks
• A look around Markets as Iran operations begin – Market reactions
• Markets Today: Chaos as Middle East conflict widens, natural gas jumps 22%, DXY at five-week highs & FTSE 100 retreats

US Stocks marked a contradictory session, with some Market leaders like Nvidia and Microsoft rebounding while the rest took a hit. Healthcare and Consumer Non-Durables sold off the most.

Energy and defense equities were the largest performers on the other hand – A clear wartime trade.

Energy products were the main benefactors of the recent conflicts, with Brent wicking to $82, WTI to $73.50 before they both slightly eased.

Natural Gas is also up close to 5% on the session, as fears of supply bottlenecks bolstered the commodities' prices. Gulf nations expressed their views towards accelerated production to replace the seized Iranian activity – Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have both had to close some of their branches due to Iranian attacks.

Among Metals, only Gold finishes higher by 2%, to $3,350 . The positive effect for metals had long been priced in into Markets ("Buy the rumor"), so their reactions wasn't uniform and actually saw some "sell the news" flows. Silver and Platinum both close down around 3% on the sessions.

Gold also stands as the king of Safe-havens, as US Treasuries also sold off – The reasoning there isn't too clear for now, but it seems that it could also be some risk-off positioning closure along with renewed inflationary fears – Friday's PPI report had widely been discarded by investors.

Global Stocks also sold off, with fears of supply disruptions notably hurting risk-sentiment – But these flows weren't so widespread. US Equities ran back higher at the open, closing the weekly gap before retracing very slightly in the early afternoon.

Cryptocurrencies have on the other hand largely rebounded, with the entire space closing largely higher – Supported by some better technicals and the fundamentals of wartime and US Sanction helping their prospects.

Look at Ethereum and Bitcoin on the daily chart!

Safe-haven flows were really erratic in today's FX session.

The US Dollar shot up higher during most of the session, before giving up some of its lead towards the afternoon. What was surprising however was to see both the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc, the two safe-haven currencies, performing the least in today's session.

The Swiss National Bank did warn of a potential intervention to prevent too swift flows, hurting the already too-strong CHF.

Other outperformers saw the Australian and the Canadian dollar, respectively third and second in today's forex race – Tracking risk-sentiment doesn't seem to be enough these days, hence keep a close eye on the Loonie and USD for their relationship with Oil.

This evening should be slightly busy, particularly around the JPY. With governor Ueda speaking at 23:00 (ET), any hawkish turn towards a hike in the March 19 meeting could bring back some stronger demand in the Japanese currency.

For the rest, keep track of the EU inflation report at 5:00 A.M, and the many Central Bank speeches to see how they envision the conflict and respective views towards inflation.

Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• WTI crude oil pulled back from $75/barrel highs, with markets seemingly content that the geopolitical risk premium is priced in.
• The Middle East conflict has surged natural gas prices (due to the Qatar LNG halt), boosted shipping/energy stocks, but weighed on airline stocks.
• Key WTI technical levels to watch are resistance at $71.38 and support at $67.00.

Most Read: Markets Today: Chaos as Middle East conflict widens, natural gas jumps 22%, DXY at five-week highs & FTSE 100 retreats

Oil prices have pulled back significantly from the daily highs printed in the Asian session, with WTI reaching a peak around the $75/barrel mark.

The question for some though, are markets pricing enough of a premium given the geopolitics in the Middle East and potential supply disruptions if the conflict continues? Some say no while others are more optimistic.

Oil prices may not have moved as much as some have predicted, but the Middle East conflict is having an impact on a wide range of assets and markets.

The escalating conflict has paralyzed energy production and shipping throughout the Middle East, most notably in the Strait of Hormuz, which facilitates approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

In a significant move, Qatar suspended all liquefied natural gas (LNG) production at its major facilities, including Ras Laffan, following drone attacks. Because Qatar accounts for roughly 20% of the global LNG market, this halt has triggered a massive surge in natural gas prices, with European benchmarks jumping as much as 50% in a single day.

Global energy equities have surged in response to the supply shock and the 8% spike in crude oil prices. Major players like Exxon Mobil and Shell saw notable gains, with Exxon's share price rising over 4% in early trading. Domestic natural gas firms in the US also benefited from the tightening global market; shares of CNX Resources and Williams Companies each rose by more than 1%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) climbed 3.7%.

The aviation and travel sectors faced significant headwinds as the closure of major Middle Eastern hubs triggered a sharp sell-off in airline stocks. Shares of Ryanair, IAG, American Airlines, and United Airlines all retreated, reflected by a nearly 3% drop in the S&P 1500 Passenger Airlines index. This downturn was compounded by the surge in crude oil prices, which typically signals a spike in jet fuel costs—historically one of the industry's heaviest operating expenses.

In contrast, shipping and tanker companies saw their valuations climb as the conflict disrupted vital maritime arteries like the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz. These bottlenecks have tightened global shipping capacity, fueling expectations for significantly higher freight rates. European giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd saw their shares jump 7.8% and 6.7%, respectively, while US-based Nordic American Tankers rose over 3%.

Other key players in the sector, including Teekay Tankers and International Seaways, also posted gains as the market braced for a prolonged period of logistical constraints.

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains volatile, with the threat of Iranian retaliation against neighboring Gulf states heightening risks to global energy supplies and leaving the door open for further escalation.

While the Strait of Hormuz has not been officially closed by Iranian forces, the commercial impact is already severe; insurers are canceling coverage and shipping premiums are skyrocketing, forcing vessels to either pause transits or seek costly detours.

These disruptions extend beyond maritime trade, as the closure of Gulf airspace is currently severing vital aviation corridors between Europe and Asia. Furthermore, the potential reactivation of Houthi rebels in the Red Sea threatens to shut down the primary alternative routes that previously mitigated Hormuz-related tensions.In the event of a prolonged conflict, the global economy faces a "perfect storm" of compounding pressures.

The synergy of surging energy costs, logistical breakdowns, and a widespread shock to investor confidence poses a significant threat to global trade volumes. This instability arrives at an especially precarious moment, as the world economy is still struggling to absorb the inflationary and growth-stifling effects of recent tariff shocks.

Ultimately, the timing of this crisis could not be worse, potentially stalling a global recovery that was already on shaky ground.

WTI Crude Oil Four-Hour Chart, March 2, 2026

Looking at the four-hour WTI chart above and you can see the massive spike last night at the open.

Oil prices have since failed to surpass the 73.35 handle as markets appear content that enough risk premium has already been priced in.

Support rests some distance away, around the 67.00 handle.

If oil prices remain below the 71.38 resistance level, a return to the 67.00 breakout level cannot be ruled out.

A four-hour candle close back above the 71.38 handle could open up a retest of Sunday evenings highs at the 75.00 a barrel mark.

For now though, staying nimble appears to be the best option as market sentiment can shift in a second.

Keep an eye on developments in the Middle East as well as comments from the Trump administration in the US.

Key levels to keep an eye on

Support:

• 67.00
• 66.15
• 65.00 (100-day MA)

Resistance:

• 71.38
• 73.35
• 75.00

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US Stock Benchmarks gapped lower at the open but have bounced higher significantly since
• Investor sentiment remains elevated despite the new beginning of a rough conflict in the Middle East
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

Stock Markets have eased significantly during the Asian and European sessions, but it seems that US Markets are remaining unfazed.

Gapping lower by 1.50% across all benchmarks, Stocks are now rallying back, now close to unchanged, and essentially filling the gaps.

J.P. Morgan issued a buy-the-dips recommendation, which undoubtedly helped risk sentiment ease, but US stocks remain at key inflection points.

What is surprising is also seeing US Treasuries sell off (10Y Yield back above 4.00%) despite ongoing intense exchanges in the Middle East – Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are also exploding higher as we speak.

Markets were trading at the lows of their ranges, which could also have helped the rebound.

I invite you to check out Morning reactions and a detailed resume of the events right here.

Keep a close eye on sentiment throughout the week, as economic damage from the war is still far from reflected. The Strait of Hormuz and a potential closure there could be hurting sentiment more consistently throughout the week.

Let's explore the key levels for weekly action by diving into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Read More:

• A look around Markets as Iran operations begin – Market reactions
• Markets Today: Chaos as Middle East conflict widens, natural gas jumps 22%, DXY at five-week highs & FTSE 100 retreats
• Safe-haven demand intensifies as US-Iran conflict extends - Gold, WTI Crude, Nikkei 225, AUD/USD short-term outlook

Despite the rebound around US Benchmarks, individual equities are sending a mixed picture.

Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta and Energy stocks are dominating the action.

Dow Jones rebounded significantly from its 48,103 overnight futures lows, and is now facing a significant test at its Gap-fill level and 50-Hour MA (48,925 – Morning Highs).

• Closing above on the session would imply a buy-the-dip flows over War flows – Odds for this could be compromised if news worsen.
• Rejecting the 50-Hour MA (immediate test) could lead to further downside in US Indexes – Doing so could see a test of the overnight lows.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Key 1H MA 48,925 – Current rejection & Morning highs
• 200-Hour MA 49,270
• January ATH Resistance 49,500 to 49,700
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance (Range Highs)
• Index All-Time highs 50,512

Support Levels

• Past week Support 48,660 to 48,740 (Friday lows)
• November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Minor Support
• Overnight futures lows 48,103
• Key Support from 47,500 to 48,000 (Next main Support)
• 45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)

Nasdaq breached back above its 50-Hour MA but is less responsive than the DJIA to the indicator.

The level to watch is being tested as we speak: 25,000.

• Closing above on the session would see further dip-buying, like in the DJIA.
• Rejecting here however could see a quick test of the 24,441 overnight lows.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Key Pivot 25,000 to 25,250 (Immediate rejection!)
• 25,400 to 25,500 Intraday resistance
• All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300

Support Levels

• Mini-intraday support 24,744 (bearish below)
• 24,400 to 25,600 Key Support (Range Support)
• 24,441 Overnight lows
• February Support 24,150 to 24,200
• October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 is facing almost similar conditions as the Dow. After running higher in the morning session, bulls will be facing a key test at the 200-Hour MA (6,874).

• Trading and closing above would point to 7,000.
• Below would point to a test of the 6,760 overnight lows.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Morning highs and 200-Hour MA (6,874)
• Key Pivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900
• Previous ATH minor Resistance 6,945 to 6,975
• Current ATH 7,020
• All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)

Support Levels

• Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850
• 6,800 Psychological Support
• Overnight lows 6,760
• February lows 6,730 (Higher timeframe range lows)
• 6,400 Major psychological support

Safe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This weekend marked the beginning of a foreseen but still shocking operation in Iran as US and Israeli forces aim to topple the Islamic Regime.

Killing the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the first strikes, the battle is still anticipated to last around four weeks, as declared by President Trump and Head of the Department of War Pete Hegseth. Strikes on IRGC facilities and missile launchers are numerous and continuous.

At the same time, the Islamic regime retaliates against US positions across the Middle East, but has also sent missiles and drones against several Arab nations.

This includes the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Oman.

Hezbollah, a terrorist organization affiliated with the current Iranian regime, has also joined the conflict by sending drones and ballistic missiles not only to Israel but also to Cyprus, where UK military bases are located. The organization's leader has been reported to have been eliminated during the Middle Eastern afternoon.

A few themes concerning Markets: a prolonged war affecting risk sentiment amid already chaotic Market conditions, and what happens to the Strait of Hormuz.

This Strait, located between the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf, just below Iran, is where more than 90% of Oil flows to Asia. Its closure during the 1970s preceded a global Oil supply crisis, leading to severe price rises and disruptions to international trade; hence, anything happening there could have a severe impact.

Communications and announcements are to be closely tracked to monitor how the conflict advances. The longer it lasts, the more erratic things can become.

Check out our freshly released Podcast episode to learn more.

Let's dive into the major movers of this tense weekly open.

Discover: Markets Today: Chaos as Middle East conflict widens, natural gas jumps 22%, DXY at five-week highs & FTSE 100 retreats

Financial Markets are getting rocked from the latest developments, but reactions have remained relatively contained.

WTI (US) Oil prices have gapped up to $73.50 before easing to the current ~$71.50 region, still higher by 6.50% relative to Friday's close. All energy products are experiencing similar rises.

Brent (UK) prices have however spiked even higher, gapping close to 10% to $80.00 and also somewhat retraced back to its opening price.

Metals have offered quite another, less predictable dynamic during the overnight/morning session.

Gold is running higher while others are easing slightly, with Platinum down 2.50% and Silver breaching back below $90 per oz.

I invite you to check out our Gold short-term analysis right here. More will be coming throughout the week.

The US Dollar is also seeing a significant rise in this morning's action as safe-haven flows race back towards the Reserve currency.

The petrodollar trade quickly returns when Middle East conflicts rise. It is a first however in recent times, as the Greenback had been getting sold off on recent risk-aversion.

It's consolidation near 98.00 (Dollar Index) had foreshadowed a rally on such the occurrence. (I hope some observed our recent US Dollar piece!)

Watch the reactions as it nears a key resistance (98.80 to 99.00) and been retracing slightly since.

If it goes back to 98.00, dip-buying would not be surprising.

European and Global indexes have corrected roughly in the risk-off sentiment. On the other hand, while US benchmarks fell during the futures session, dip-buying seems to be ongoing.

A detailed look into US Stock Markets will be coming at the top of the hour.

Cryptos corrected over the weekend, moving lower initially on the news, but are now bouncing sharply higher

Bitcoin remains above its 200-Day Moving Average near $69,000.

Safe Trades and keep track of the evolution of the conflict ahead!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

We join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart in the latest Market Insights episode, where we discuss the latest financial market headlines, including oil pricing following strikes in the Middle East.

Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Markets in "state of shock" as US/Israel strike on Iran widens Middle East conflict.
• Oil (Brent +10%), natural gas (+22%), and gold surge on safe-haven demand and supply fears.
• Global equities (STOXX 600 -1.7%) retreat; US Dollar (DXY) hits a five-week high.
• Geopolitics likely to dominate as data takes a backseat.

Most Read: Weekly Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: US-Iran standoff trumps US PPI, setting stage for $5300/oz

Markets are in a state of shock following a tumultuous weekend in the Middle East after the US/Israel launched what it called a “pre-emotive” strike on Iran. The move took out the Iranian Supreme Leader Sayed Ali Khamenei and other top officials but has led to a seismic response from the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps).

The response by Iran has seen attacks on neighboring GCC countries housing American bases. Overnight, Hezbollah sent missiles at Israel as well with Israel now launching attacks in Lebanon as well.

This morning brought a significant escalation in the regional conflict as coordinated aerial threats targeted multiple locations across the Middle East and Mediterranean.

Kuwaiti air defenses successfully intercepted hostile drones, prompting the U.S. embassy to issue an urgent "take cover" warning for personnel and citizens. Nearby, witnesses reported a heavy emergency response presence and captured footage of black smoke rising near the embassy grounds.The instability extended into the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, where loud blasts were heard in Dubai, Doha, and the Samha region near Abu Dhabi.

Meanwhile, Britain's Royal Air Force base at Akrotiri in Cyprus was struck by a drone overnight, the first such assault on the facility since 1986. While the Cypriot presidency and the British Ministry of Defence confirmed the strike caused only limited damage and no casualties, the event marked a sharp intensification of hostilities across the region.

What comes next is anyone's guess as Iranian leadership have stated that they have decentralized the command structures of the IRGC, allowing commanders to act quicker and more decisively.

Oil prices surged and the US Dollar jumped as safe haven demand continued to ratchet up. Brent crude jumping approximately 10% to $79.90 and US crude climbing over 8% to $72.64.

Market participants simultaneously sought refuge in safe-haven assets, driving gold prices up 2.6% to $5,413 an ounce. A primary focus of concern remains the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for 20% of the world’s seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas.

Although the waterway remains open, marine tracking data reveals a growing bottleneck of tankers as operators weigh the risks of attack and rising insurance hurdles. This prolonged price surge threatens to reignite global inflation while acting as a functional tax on consumers and businesses.

The volatility triggered a widespread retreat in global equities. European and Asian markets saw significant losses, with banking and airline sectors hit particularly hard due to fears of stifled economic growth and rising fuel costs.

Europe's broad STOXX 600 slid 1.7%, after Asia Pacific ex Japan shares had fallen 1.8% and the US S&P 500 futures were down 1.5%.

Conversely, energy and defense stocks surged to record highs, with giants like BP and Shell gaining nearly 6%.

In the Middle East, "exceptional circumstances" led the UAE and Kuwait to temporarily suspend trading on their stock exchanges. While most global indices tumbled, Chinese blue-chips managed a modest gain, despite the country's heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports.

European natural gas futures surged more than 22% to above €39/MWh on Monday, nearing their June highs. A sustained disruption in the Middle East would likely ripple across the globe, significantly impacting Asian buyers and driving a surge in demand for US liquefied natural gas (LNG).

This shift would further constrain the global gas market, creating a challenging spillover effect for Europe. These risks are particularly acute because European Union gas storage levels are currently sitting below 31%, a notable decline from the 40% levels recorded during the same period last year leaving the region with a thinner buffer against supply shocks.

German retail sales experienced a sharper-than-expected contraction of 0.9%, falling short of the modest 0.2% decline projected by analysts.

This downturn followed an upwardly revised 1.2% growth in December, signaling a shift toward consumer caution at the start of the new year. Much of the weakness was concentrated in the non-food sector, which saw a 1.7% drop in sales, even as demand for essential food items remained flat.

In contrast, the e-commerce sector remained a bright spot, with online and mail-order sales climbing 2.5% despite the broader retail cooling.

On an annual basis, retail trade grew by 1.2%, a slowdown from the revised 2.5% expansion seen in December, which had represented a five-month high for the industry. While the January figures suggest a hesitant start to 2026, they follow a relatively robust performance in 2025, during which total retail sales grew by 2.7%.

On the FX front, the Swiss franc surged to its strongest position against the euro in over a decade, appreciating 0.7% to 0.9030 in early Asian trading. The franc also gained 0.4% against the dollar, reflecting a broader rush toward traditional safe-haven assets.

Simultaneously, the US dollar index climbed 0.3% to hit a five-week high of 98.273, its strongest level since late January.

In contrast, the euro fell 0.8% to $1.1725 due to mounting concerns over European energy supply disruptions, while sterling dropped 0.9% to $1.3372 following news that a Shahed drone had targeted Britain's RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus.

The heightened risk aversion heavily impacted commodity-linked currencies, with the Australian dollar tumbling 1.2% and the New Zealand dollar sliding 0.8% against the greenback.

Meanwhile, China's offshore yuan weakened by 0.3% to 6.8801 per dollar after the People's Bank of China adjusted its daily fixing to curb further appreciation. As a major energy importer and the primary purchaser of Iranian oil, China remains particularly sensitive to the volatility currently rattling the global currency and energy markets.

Currency Power Balance

Read More:

Safe-haven demand intensifies as US-Iran conflict extends - Gold, WTI Crude, Nikkei 225, AUD/USD short-term outlook

Credit crunch fears to conclude a temperamental month; NFP incoming – Markets Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD flirts with key confluence level. Can bulls keep up the gains beyond the 1.3728 handle

The day ahead will be quiet in the Euro Area after some data releases this morning.

Looking ahead to the US session, market attention this week is expected to shift away from scheduled economic data and toward the unfolding crisis in the Middle East.

While geopolitical headlines dominate, the US financial calendar still features the February ISM manufacturing report, with particular focus on the "prices paid" component as a gauge for inflationary pressure.

Technically, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has already breached key resistance at the 98.00 level. Without an immediate de-escalation of regional tensions, analysts suggest the index could climb toward 100.00 within the month.

This sudden flight to safety has effectively halted the stable market conditions that many expected would lead to a gradual dollar decline throughout the year.

From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index continues to hold comfortably above the 100-day MA.

Having printed fresh highs on Friday around the 10935 handle the index is experiencing a pullback with the rise in geopolitical risks.

For now though, bulls remain firmly in control even though a deeper pullback to support around the 10700 and 10650 mark cannot be ruled out.

Only a four-hour candle close below the higher low swing point at 10786 would lead to a change in structure and could lead me to reevaluate my outlook.

Immediate support rests at 10786 before the 10650 handle comes into focus.

Resistance to the upside at 10857 needs to be cleared if bulls are to make a run for the 10935 handle and beyond.

FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, March 2, 2026

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

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© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Geopolitical shock fuels haven flows: Escalating US-Iran conflict and fears over a Strait of Hormuz disruption triggered a “haven first” reaction—gold surged, WTI spiked above $70, US equities and Asian indices fell, while the US dollar firmed.
• Gold and oil in bullish breakouts: Gold maintains a short-term uptrend above $5,238 with scope toward $5,448/$5,602, while WTI crude has broken above major 30-month resistance at $70, opening upside toward $74.70–$78.10 unless $67.80 gives way.
• Equities pressured, AUD resilient: The Nikkei 225 risks a deeper correction below 57,140, while AUD/USD holds above 0.7030/0.7020 support, supported by strong commodities, with 0.7140 as the upside trigger.

The US, in collaboration with Israel, has launched an attack on Iran on Saturday, 28 February 2026, despite an attempt by Oman mediators to extend “diplomacy measures” for another round of negotiation talks over Iran’s nuclear stockpile.

The past 48 hours have seen a flurry of attacks from both sides, with Iran’s retaliation bombardments on US military assets spread across the Middle East in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Oman.

The latest US-Iran conflict is likely not going to be a “symbolic attack” akin to last summer, as US President Trump said the US military will continue bombing Iran until his objectives are achieved, despite the confirmed death of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

In today’s Asia session, market participants are generally adopting the strategy of “haven first, ask questions later” amid heightened concerns about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, a key chokepoint for global oil flows, which can trigger an upward spiral in oil prices.

Here are the intraday performances of key asset classes at the time of writing:

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures down around 0.9%
• Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.5%
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index down 1.4%
• West Texas crude oil up 6% to around $71.40 per barrel
• Gold (XAU/USD) up 1.6% to around $5,360 per oz
• US Dollar Index up 0.3%
• Japanese yen down 0.5% to 156.80 per dollar
• Swiss franc almost unchanged at 0.7690 per dollar
• Bitcoin (BTC/USD) up 1.7% to around 66,880

Let’s look at the short-term technical outlook and key levels on Gold (XAU/USD), WTI crude oil, Nikkei 225, and AUD/USD

Price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) continue to oscillate within a minor ascending channel since the 6 February 2026 low of $4,655. Watch the $5,238 key short-term pivotal support for a further potential extension for the next intermediate resistance to come in at $5,448 before a retest at the current all-time high of $5,602 printed on 29 January 2026 (see Fig. 1).

However, a break and an hourly close below $5,238 negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective pull-back to retest the next intermediate support zone at $5,111/5,046 (also the 20-day moving average).

The West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) has gapped up by 10% on Monday’s Asian opening hour to print an 8-month intraday high of $73.50/barrel before it pared back gains to around 6% to trade at $71.30.

Interestingly, today’s massive rally has triggered a major bullish breakout above its former 30-month major descending resistance from the 28 September 2023 high, which now turns into pull-back support at around $70.00/69.26 (see Fig. 2).

Watch the $67.80 key short-term pivotal support for the next intermediate resistances to come in at $74.70/75.55 and $78.10 (Fibonacci extension).

On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below $67.80 negates the bullish tone for another round of minor corrective pull-back to expose the next intermediate supports at $64.80 and $63.10/62.05 (also the area of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages).

The Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) has gapped down by 2.3% in today’s Asian opening hour and shaped a bearish reaction at the time of writing right at the former minor ascending support from the 6 February 2026 low, now turns pull-back resistance at around 58,125 (see Fig. 3).

Watch the 58,808 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 57,140 (also the 20-day moving average) may trigger a further minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 56,096 and 54,818.

On the flip side, a clearance above 58,808 invalidates the bearish tone to see a retest at the all-time high area of 59,884/60,075 in the first step.

The AUD/USD has managed to trim its intraday loss of 1% to 0.4% at the time of writing, supported by bullish commodities.

The intraday recovery seen in the AUD/USD has occurred right after the third retest on its 20-day moving average (see Fig. 4).

Watch the 0.7030/7020 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 0.7140 may trigger another round of bullish impulsive up move sequences for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 0.7175 and 0.7210 (also a Fibonacci extension).

On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 0.7020 invalidates the bullish tone for an extension of the minor corrective decline to expose the next supports at 0.6980 and 0.6905/6890 (also the 50-day moving average).

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.