• Bitcoin plunged 16% over the past two weeks and briefly fell below the US$70,000 psychological level after MicroStrategy’s partial Bitcoin sale shattered the long-standing “never sell” narrative that had supported market sentiment.
• Despite the sharp decline, several contrarian indicators suggest selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion, including an extremely oversold daily RSI reading, a surge in long-position liquidations, and signs of renewed accumulation by long-term holders.
• Technical and on-chain metrics indicate the potential for a near-term bullish reversal above the key US$62,250 support level, with upside targets at US$74,880 and US$82,815 if buying momentum returns.

Let’s unpack the primary drivers and the technical setup.

On Monday and Tuesday (1–2 June 2026), the cryptocurrency market absorbed a significant psychological blow. Spot BTC/USD tumbled sharply, slipping below the $70,000 psychological threshold and falling 16% over the past two weeks. It printed an intraday low of $65,370 on Wednesday, 3 June 2026.

The dominant driver of this week’s movement was the revelation that MicroStrategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, sold a portion of its holdings for the first time in four years.

While the market impact is less about the absolute volume of the sale and more about the erosion of consensus, it effectively shattered founder Michael Saylor’s widely echoed “never sell” iron law.

This pivot disrupted the pricing anchor the market had historically relied on, injecting uncertainty and triggering a wave of defensive selling.

The 16% plunge in BTC/USD has left it hovering just above its $62,250 key medium-term pivotal support and the lower boundary of its long-term secular ascending channel running from the December 2018 low.

In addition, the daily RSI momentum indicator hit a significant oversold level of 21.8 on Tuesday, 2 June 2026, its lowest since 5 February 2026, triggering a 35% rally in BTC/USD over the next three months.

Secondly, utilising TradingView’s crypto derivatives indicators for crypto futures and perpetual swaps, such as from Bybit, Binance, and OKX.

Aggregated long liquidation data (derived from various exchanges) spiked to $482 million on Tuesday, 2 June 2026, indicating that many leveraged long positions in Bitcoin futures and perpetual swaps were forced closed due to margin calls.

A similar rise in long liquidations ($481 million) also occurred on 5 February 2026, when capitulation led to a 35% rally in BTC/USD.

Thirdly, on-chain indicator: the percentage of 1-year active supply for Bitcoin has declined steadily over the past three weeks, from 40.3% on 23 April 2026 to 39.3% on Wednesday, 3 June 2026, at the time of writing.

Active supply 1-year measures the total number of unique cryptocurrency units that have moved at least once over the past 1 year. This metric tracks the portion of supply that has been involved in on-chain transactions during the trailing 365-day period.

A decreasing active supply often signals accumulation by long-term holders, a bullish condition for Bitcoin in the current context.

Hence, based on these factors, BTC/USD is now ripe for a potential near-term bullish reversal above the $62,250 key medium-term support, with intermediate resistance at $74,880. A clearance above it would signal a retest of the $82,815 medium-term resistance (also close to the 200-day moving average).

On the other hand, a daily close below $62,250 invalidates the recovery scenario and extends the corrective decline towards the $57,590/52,590 long-term pivotal support zone.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Global equities pushed to fresh record highs as investor enthusiasm broadened beyond mega-cap technology stocks into small-cap industrial, energy, and infrastructure companies benefiting from the ongoing AI investment boom.
• Strong labour market data and rising inflation pressures in both the U.S. and Eurozone reinforced expectations of a more hawkish global monetary policy environment, with markets increasingly pricing additional tightening from the ECB and Federal Reserve.
• Capital intensity within the AI supercycle is becoming a key market theme, highlighted by Alphabet’s US$80 billion equity raise to finance expanding AI infrastructure spending, raising questions about long-term capital efficiency and balance-sheet sustainability.
• Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100 minor bullish trend remains intact above 30,245 key short-term support.

• World Stocks hit historic peaks amid calm geopolitics: Major global equity indexes, including the S&P 500, MSCI All Country, MSCI Emerging Markets, and MSCI Asia ex-Japan, advanced to brand-new record highs on Tuesday. The broad rally was underpinned by a general calm across fixed-income and currency desks, alongside a lack of major shifts in U.S.-Iran border tensions.
• Alphabet stuns markets with unprecedented $80 billion equity capital raise: Google’s parent entity, Alphabet, shocked Wall Street by announcing an $80 billion equity financing program to back its staggering AI capital expenditures, which are projected to reach $200 billion this year. Legendary holding firm Berkshire Hathaway has already committed a major $10 billion block to the capital raise.
• U.S. JOLTS job openings surge to two-year peak: Economic indicators released on Tuesday revealed that U.S. job openings for April jumped to their highest absolute level in two years, led by a massive concentration in professional and business services. This rapid pace represents the quickest sequential expansion in five years, signalling robust labour demand.
• Eurozone inflation scales 3% handle in May, securing ECB June hike: Driven by structural forces, Eurozone headline consumer price inflation crossed the 3% y/y barrier for the first time since September 2023. Core inflation also rose higher to 2.5% y/y from 2.2% in April. These hot prints have effectively locked in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at next week’s ECB policy meeting, with traders pricing an additional 50 bps of tightening by year-end.

• The small-cap rotational AI capital drift: While multi-trillion dollar megacap behemoths capture mainstream headlines, an underlying structural rotation is developing. Tech and energy small caps are outperforming as critical components of the physical "picks and shovels” layer of the global AI buildout, allowing them to monetise large capex budgets away from over-concentrated tech heavyweights.
• Megacap liquidity demands & balance sheet fatigue: Alphabet’s massive $80 billion capital raise highlights growing cash demands among AI players. Despite boasting $126 billion in cash at the end of Q1, Alphabet’s massive capex burn rate, paired with $85 billion in fresh debt issuance over the past year, is prompting concerns over long-term capital efficiency.
• Sovereign monetary policy conundrums: Central banks globally are entering a synchronised tightening regime to squash persistent price pressures. With Eurozone inflation hot, the ECB is set to follow the G10 rate-hiking cohorts of Australia and Norway. Markets are subsequently pricing in a faster policy-tightening timeline from the Fed under the new leadership of Kevin Warsh.

Equities: The S&P 500 closed higher at fresh peaks with seven out of 11 sectors advancing, led by Utilities (+1.9%), Materials (+1.2%), and Industrials (+1%). Small-caps and non-tech cyclicals dramatically outperformed, while European bourses rallied 0.8% and the UK FTSE added 0.3%.

Fixed Income: Global sovereign bonds enjoyed a rare relief bid. The long end of the U.S. Treasury curve rallied, dropping yields by 3 basis points. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield plunged a massive 11 basis points following a highly successful auction, registering its steepest single-day drop since April 2023.

FX: The U.S. Dollar Index continued to trade within a minor range between 99.50 and 98.90, while the USD/JPY inched higher towards the critical 160.00 intervention threshold, keeping Japanese authorities on high alert. Conversely, digital safe havens buckled, with Bitcoin sliding 6% to break toward $66,000, printing an intraday low of $65,370 in today’s Asia opening session.

Commodities: Energy markets firmed modestly, with crude oil contracts adding 1% amid uncertainty over an interim US-Iran peace deal. Precious metals stabilised, with spot gold holding steady near $4,484/oz as investors balanced sticky global yields with Middle East headlines, but remained capped below its 20-day moving average at $4,580.

• Stock indices surge to records: Mirroring global risk-on transitions, regional bourses posted strong sessions. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index climbed to an all-time record, building on Monday’s massive 4.0% single-session explosion in South Korea. In today’s Asia opening session, rotation has been seen among Hong Kong shares and China’s “A” shares. The Hang Seng Index slid -1.7% intraday, while China A 50 and the broader CSI 300 index rose around 1.5% each. The outperformance of China “A” shares has been driven by an expansion in service activities, as the RatingDog Services PMI rose to 54.4 in May from 52.6 in the prior month.
• Japanese bond volatility: The 11 bps collapse in the 10-year JGB yield has significantly adjusted near-term domestic yields. However, markets remain tightly focused on the Bank of Japan's upcoming policy meeting next week, where the central bank is widely expected to signal a clear path for interest rate normalisation and tapering.
• Chinese energy inventories: Highlighting real-world supply shifts, data show that China is aggressively drawing down its domestic onshore crude stockpiles to replace regular oil imports, which have plunged to a 10-year absolute low due to high international costs.

1. BoJ Governor Ueda Speech - 4.30 pm SGT Impact: USD/JPY, JPY crosses, short-term JGBs, Nikkei 225
2. US ADP Employment Change (May) - 8:15 pm SGT (consensus: +117K, Apr: +109K) Impact: USD, short-term US Treasuries, US stock indices, Gold
3. US ISM Services PMI (May) - 10:00 pm SGT (consensus: 53.8, Apr: 53.6) Impact: USD, short-term US Treasuries, US stock indices, Gold

The price action of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel in place since the 19 May 2026 low at 28,588.

In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator remains in a healthy bullish momentum condition (above the 60 level).

These observations suggest its minor uptrend phase remains intact. Watch the 30,245 key short-term pivotal support for a further potential push up. A clearance above 30,795 points to the next intermediate resistance at 31,050 (Fibonacci extension).

However, failure to hold and an hourly close below 30,245 would negate the bullish tone, signalling a minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at 30,000 and even 29,700 (close to the 20-day moving average).

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Global equities climbed to fresh record highs as optimism surrounding ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic negotiations combined with relentless AI-driven capital expenditure, boosting major indices including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, MSCI World, and Nikkei 225.
• The U.S. economy is displaying an increasingly pronounced “K-shaped” divergence, where AI-fuelled corporate investment and profits continue to surge. At the same time, consumer savings have fallen to near their lowest levels since the Global Financial Crisis, raising concerns about the sustainability of consumer spending.
• Market leadership has become highly concentrated in technology and AI-related sectors, with Nvidia, Dell, Oracle, and other AI beneficiaries driving index gains. In contrast, most other sectors lag, highlighting growing concentration risk beneath record-high equity indices.
• Chart of the day: USD/JPY’s 4-week is losing upside momentum with risk of a minor corrective setback below 159.85 key short-term resistance.

• World benchmarks stock indices scale all-time highs on Trump assurances: Global risk sentiment exploded on Monday as the big three U.S. stock indices joined the MSCI World, MSCI EM, and Japan’s Nikkei in hitting new historic records. The broad advance followed statements from U.S. President Donald Trump indicating that, despite fresh weekend military exchanges, Washington and Tehran remain engaged in active diplomatic discussions.
• U.S. manufacturing activity expands at 4-Year High: Defying structural headwinds from the regional oil shock and record-low consumer confidence, figures released on Monday showed that U.S. manufacturing activity is growing at its fastest pace in four years. ISM Manufacturing PMI for May rose to 54.0 versus 52.7 in April, and came in above expectations of 53. The brisk expansion is being driven primarily by immense, front-loaded corporate capital expenditures in artificial intelligence.
• Anthropic leads flurry of multi-trillion dollar IPO filings: Wall Street’s AI frenzy reached a new milestone as generative AI champion Anthropic confidentially filed for a U.S. initial public offering. With OpenAI preparing a parallel filing and SpaceX set to price its record-breaking listing later this month, institutional desks calculate that up to $4 trillion of new market capitalisation could debut in the coming weeks.
• NVIDIA moves AI edge computing directly to the PC Market: Shifting the competitive landscape for hardware developers, NVIDIA unveiled a new specialised architecture chip engineered to embed generative AI capabilities directly into standard laptops and desktop personal computers.
• U.S. consumer savings pool erased to pre-crisis low: Highlighting a severe “K-shaped” economic divergence, real economic metrics show the U.S. personal savings rate has plummeted to a four-year low of 2.6%. Excluding a brief anomaly in June 2022, the buffer is now tracking at its lowest overall absolute level since the 2008 global financial crisis.

• The multi-speed K-shaped consumer chasm: While corporate America, riding the AI infrastructure boom, enjoys near-historic profit expansions, everyday consumers are facing severe cost-of-living constraints. The rapid rate at which the population is depleting its savings buffers to sustain retail spending is a flashing warning to macroeconomists that current domestic consumption models are structurally unsustainable.
• The imbalance in extreme sector equity concentration: Although broad market averages notched pristine records, the underbelly of Monday’s Wall Street session exposed highly fragile technical leadership. Only two out of the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors finished in positive territory: technology (+2.5%) and energy (+1.9%). The remaining nine sectors fell broadly on Monday, 1 June, led by a 3% plunge in defensive utilities and a 2.6% drop in consumer discretionaries.
• Geopolitical supply volatility and the energy buffer draw: Renewed weekend military strikes between the U.S. and Iran in Kuwait and Lebanon instantly revived global supply anxieties. It comes at a highly critical juncture for physical fuel markets, where a historic 15-week streak of national gasoline stockpile drawdowns has left the system without an operational buffer heading into peak summer driving season.

Equities: Wall Street’s indices pushed to record closings, spearheaded by specialised tech clusters. Major individual corporate gainers included Dell (+10%), Oracle (+10%), and Nvidia (+6%), while Micron topped the historic $1,000 threshold. Hewlett-Packard exploded by 28% in after-hours trade following earnings. Conversely, hardware laggards included Qualcomm (-9%), Meta (-5%), and Intel (-5%). Europe and the UK finished lower on Monday, 1 June; DAX (-0.4%), FTSE 100 (-0.7%).

Fixed Income: Sovereign bond markets faced steady selling pressure. Strong local manufacturing activity and structural stagflationary elements pushed U.S. Treasury yields up across the curve by as much as 3 basis points.

FX: The U.S. Dollar Index displayed broad upward dominance. The USD/JPY pair advanced aggressively toward the critical 160.00 intervention threshold. The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) and Swedish Krona dropped close to 1.0% to pace G10 losses, while the Argentine Peso (-1.5%) led emerging market declines.

Commodities: Crude oil prices spiked violently on geopolitical backsliding. Global benchmark Brent and WTI crude surged by 4%-5%. Non-yielding spot gold retreated by 1,2% after the rejection of its 20-day moving average to close at $4,485/oz on Monday, 1 June, on the backdrop of firmer US Treasury yields.

• Stock markets break higher: Regional indices captured strong positive spillover from global tech allocations. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index climbed to a historic high, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 establishing fresh record peaks and South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI index exploding by 4.0% in a massive single-session breakout. In today’s Asia opening session, profit-taking has emerged amid conflicting narratives on the progress of US-Iran peace talks; Nikkei 225 (-1.1%), KOSPI (-1.1%), China A50 (-1%), ASX 200 (-1%). In comparison, STI bucked the trend with an intraday gain of 0.3%.
• Macro energy strains and imports: The severe commodity spike imposes immediate burdens on regional trading balances. Data show that China’s crude oil imports plummeted to a 10-year low in May, driven by worsening domestic economic conditions and high international invoice costs.

1. Eurozone Core Inflation Rate Prelim (May) - 5:00 pm SGT (consensus: 2.4% y/y, Apr: 2.2%) Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAX
2. Fed Speak (Hammack) - 8:30 pm SGT Impact: USD, Short-term US Treasuries, US stock indices
3. US-Iran peace deal progress news flows Impact: All asset classes.

The 3% rally in USD/JPY from its intraday low of 155.03 on 6 May 2026 is now showing signs of minor exhaustion.

The hourly RSI momentum indicator flashed out a prior bearish divergence condition and exited its overbought level on Monday, 1 June 2026.

Watch the 159.85 key short-term pivotal resistance with risk of a corrective setback towards the intermediate supports of 159.10 and 158.80 (also the 50-day moving average) (see Fig. 1).

However, a break and an hourly close above 159.85 invalidates the setback scenario and opens the door for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances/prior intervention zones at 160.23/45 and 160.65.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Hey traders, a more personal note in my final contribution to MarketPulse.

Trading can be quite chaotic and confusing, particularly when the world seems like its burning every day.

Some headlines come and sound Market changing, but it turns out that everything is priced in and nothing changed – One of my favorite X poster, Conksresearch (a great follow for good content and laughs), will always say – Nothing ever really changes.
So the lesson here is not to get lost in the narratives, and try to be critical on if a news is really regime changing or not.

Sometimes a news will be regime changing, hence, it is important to stay nimble and flexible.

At the end of the day, traders should always be concerned about two things, paying their bills and surviving in the game.

The best thing that allows traders to do this is to actually follow the charts and not the narratives or their own biases (the best traders spend a lifelong adventure trying to avoid doing so).

Watch out for your sources, follow the right people but most importantly, make your own judgment and question your biases!

InvestingLive.com is a great resource to consult when you don't know where to look.

Never underestimate the long-run – Ups and downs in trading are extremely common, but the best traders always made sure to survive long enough throughout these downs to eventually succeed.

Despite all the promises from the gurus driving Lamborghinis, trading is rarely a short-term success story.

Even if you do manage to become rich enough of off one trend, you have to make sure to be able to repeat this again without burning your account(s).

With time, you will be able to recognize larger trends as they develop, be able to counteract your own thoughts that prevent you from doing what's right, and make sure to always protect your bread-making ability.

And when you see a pattern that you have seen hundreds of time and prepared yourself to capture the opportunity, you can use the right amount of risk to juice it to the best of your abilities.

Sometimes, months of struggles can be erased in a few good trades or days, so it is important to survive to be able to meet these opportunities – Hence the importance of not burning your accounts before doing so.

Size is one of the most important element in this aspect – You should read Best Loser Wins by Tom Hougaard (legendary trader who always made his work public and free) as it covers a lot of the traders' psychology in that aspect.

As John Keynes said, one of my favorite quotes: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

As humans, we tend to have a very strong instinct of when things are wrong.

But in Markets, overconfidence, algorithms, stop losses and positioning can extend an unsustainable trend for much longer than most can imagine.

Still, this is more of an opportunity for traders than a flaw – Participating in extreme trends, like the ones seen in Stock Markets, can generate very strong trading signals.

Trends are strong when they actually arrive, so fading them can be costly.

When they break, of course, you will also have to have your own sets of rules to be able to not fall in a large trap.

This comes back to timing: Make sure to respect the Market when it tells you something. If you're not comfortable with a trend, don't force it – there will be thousands of new trends to capture.

And when things change, be ready to change your mindset with the new flows.

We tend to be obsessed by the short-term while forgetting the longer-run.

The only thing that I will mention here is to check out Weekly charts (at least once or twice a month) and Monthly charts (2-3 times per year) for you to see if any large divergence is occurring, so you can prepare yourself in the event of a large change.

This can also help you to spot trends you had completely failed to spot.

Success in trading is often found by those who think differently than the masses – Get familiar with your process, make sure it is consistent, strong, and sustainable, but most importantly, don't forget to question things and innovate to make sure to always be ahead of the pack.

For those looking for a great website to visualize Markets – Check out Finviz!

This was my final piece for MarketPulse. Thank you for all who enjoyed the posts since a bit more than a year – I wish you success in the World of Trading and a long life in Markets.

Don't forget to follow me on X (link below), send me messages for any questions and you can check out my website if you want to stay in contact.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• WTI crude oil is on track for its worst monthly performance since April 2025, down 16% in May as easing US-Iran tensions reduce geopolitical risk premium.
• Technical signals remain bearish, as WTI trades below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages within a descending channel.
• Further downside risks remain in play toward the US$87.60 and US$81.94/85 support zones unless WTI breaks above the key US$95.10 resistance.

The former red-hot West Texas crude oil is looking to end the month of May 2026 on a bearish footing, an intra-session monthly decline of 16% (at this time of writing), its first negative month after four months of consecutive gains, and on the verge of recording its worst monthly performance since April 2025.

The ongoing weakness in crude oil prices has been primarily due to a potential end to the current three-month US-Iran conflict, which is likely to lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, reinforced by a tentative deal to extend a ceasefire by 60 days and, separately, to launch further talks on Tehran’s nuclear program. This sticky point caused the breakdown in US-Iran negotiations over the past month.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has now become the worst performer among major cross-asset classes in May, with WTI crude oil futures notching a double-digit loss of 13% from 1 May 2026 to Thursday, 28 May 2026 (see Fig. 1).

Let’s now focus on the 1 to 3 days trajectory of WTI crude oil from a technical analysis perspective.

Trend bias: Minor downtrend within medium-term range configuration with 95.10 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 2).

Supports: 87.60 (20 Apr 2026 gap), and 81.94/85 (17 Apr/11 Mar 2026 low & minor descending channel’s lower boundary).

Next resistances: 97.40 (26 May 2026 high), 100.00 (psychological, 20-day & 50-day Mas), and 102.56 (22 May 2026 high & 61.6% Fibonacci retracement from 19 May 2026 high to 29 May 2026 intraday low).

• Price actions have formed a minor descending channel since the 20 May 2026 high
• Price actions remain below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages since 25 May 2026.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to flash out bearish momentum conditions below the 50 level and has not reached its oversold region (below the 30 level).

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Global equities climbed to fresh record highs after the US and Iran agreed to extend their ceasefire, boosting risk appetite and driving strong gains in technology and AI-related stocks.
• Hotter-than-expected US core PCE inflation at 3.3% y/y reinforced the “higher for longer” interest rate narrative, further reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
• AI infrastructure and enterprise technology spending remain the dominant market driver, with blockbuster developments from Anthropic, Snowflake, Amazon, and Dell reinforcing the ongoing AI capex supercycle despite growing concerns over potential overcapacity.
• Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100 minor bullish trend intact, en route to another potential fresh all-time high at 30,728/795 with key short-term support at 29,700.

• US and Iran agree to extend ceasefire: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq bounced back to hit fresh record highs on Thursday after the United States and Iran officially agreed to extend their ceasefire. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that a permanent agreement to completely wind down the three-month-old war is within reach, provided Iran satisfies key conditions, including uranium disposal and fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• US core PCE inflation jumps to 3.3% y/y, creating policy “wedge”: The Bureau of Economic Analysis released April's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, revealing that headline PCE inflation rose to 3.8% y/y (up from 3.5% in March). More critically, core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy) climbed to 3.3% y/y, creating a rare inflationary "wedge" by running significantly hotter than core CPI (2.8% y/y), further squashing hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
• Anthropic secures staggering $965 Billion valuation: Artificial intelligence startup Anthropic closed a massive $65 billion funding round, vaulting its private valuation to $965 billion and rocketing past OpenAI. The firm is tracking to hit a $50 billion annualized revenue run-rate next month after Q1 sales expanded 80-fold.
• Snowflake inks $6B Amazon deal as tech earnings explode: Defying fears that AI automation would kill traditional enterprise software providers, Snowflake surged up to 35% after signing a landmark $6 billion deal with Amazon and upgrading its full-year sales forecast. Concurrently, Dell Technologies skyrocketed 40% in after-hours trading, following blowout quarterly results.

• The rare PCE-CPI inflation wedge: A significant structural challenge has emerged for newly confirmed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. The Fed's preferred price barometer, the core PCE index, has broken higher to 3.3%, creating an unusual divergence from the 2.8% CPI benchmark. Because this underlying inflation spike stems directly from the Strait of Hormuz conflict choking global energy supplies, traditional monetary policy tools are constrained, and higher interest rates cannot lower oil transit costs but run the risk of severely bruising an already slowing economy.
• The K-shaped bifurcation of Wall Street vs. Main Street: The latest macro data dump exposes a profound macroeconomic split. Corporate profit margins remain near record highs as companies exploit structural supply shortages and the ongoing AI capex boom to drive revenues. Conversely, Main Street consumers are under acute duress; the U.S. personal savings rate plummeted to a near-historic low of just 2.6% in April, a level eclipsed in weakness only once in the past 18 years, as soaring gas prices near $5 a gallon erode real wage growth.
• AI Infrastructure overcapacity skepticism: Despite record-breaking stock market indices, a distinct undercurrent of institutional skepticism is building regarding the trillions of dollars pouring into AI capital expenditures. Several portfolio managers are warning of near-term overcapacity as commercial entities experience budget fatigue; for instance, Microsoft has begun cutting internal Claude code licenses due to prohibitive costs, while Uber has already entirely exhausted its 2026 AI coding capital allocation.

Equities: Wall Street rallied forcefully, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.6% to close at 7,563, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 outperformed, hitting a fresh all-time high with a gain of 0.8%. Overall, Technology (1.4%) and Healthcare (1.3%) led, while defensive sectors, Consumer Staples (-0.6%) and Utilities (-1%) underperformed. Conversely, European bourses fell, with the FTSE 100 shedding 0.7% and DAX dropping 0.3%.

Fixed Income: Sovereign bond yields edged lower following the extension of the Middle East truce. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by roughly 3 basis points to anchor at 4.45% as the sovereign yield curve bull-flattened.

FX: The U.S. Dollar Index weakened by 0.2%, pulling the USD/JPY pair away from the critical 160.00 intervention line. Risk-sensitive currencies, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and Australian Dollar (AUD), led the G10 currencies higher with gains of 0.6% and 0.3% against the USD, while the South African Rand (ZAR) outperformed across emerging markets.

Commodities: rude oil prices extended losses, with Brent and WTI crude hitting close to six-week lows of $92.41/bbl and $88.52. In contrast, precious metals rebounded, supported by a pull-back in longer-term US Treasury yields, with spot gold surging 0.9% to settle at $4,496/oz, still below the 20-day moving average at $4,585/oz.

• Equity and currency volatility: Before the late-session Wall Street ceasefire bounce, regular-hour Asian equity benchmarks fell by up to 1% as they digested sticky global yields. Currencies stabilized slightly following the 0.2% drop in the greenback, relieving pressure on the Japanese yen near the 160 psychological threshold. Asia Pacific benchmark stock indices recovered sharply in today’s Asia opening session; Nikkei 225 (+1.9% to record high), Hang Seng Index (+0.4%), China A50 (+0.5%), KOSPI (+2.2% to record high), ASX 200 (+1%), and STI (+ 0.7%).
• Corporate labour and tech supply chains: Highlighting an immense structural divergence, Samsung Electronics' advanced chip workers secured a historic 10-year corporate pay package including bonuses of up to $416,000. These massive wins by a regional bellwether are expected to significantly harden the bargaining positions of other domestic unions, introducing structural wage inflation into the region.
• Derivative infrastructure race: Financial localization is accelerating. While U.S. exchanges prepare to launch futures contracts tied to raw computing rental power, China is actively designing a brand-new futures market for AI tokens used to price localized AI services, sparking a structural derivatives race with Washington.

1. Japan Consumer Confidence (May) - 1:00 pm SGT (consensus:32, Apr:32.2) Impact: USD/JPY, JPY crosses, Nikkei 225
2. Germany Harmonised Inflation Rate Prelim (May) - 8:00 pm SGT (consensus: 2.8% y/y, Apr: 2.9%) Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAX
3. Fed Speak - Bowman (9.10 pm SGT), Paulson (9.15 pm SGT) Impact: Short-end US Treasuries, USD, US stock indices
4. US-Iran peace deal news flows Impact: All asset classes

The intraday decline of 2% seen in the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) measured from Wednesday, 27 May US session high to Thursday, 28 May Asia session low has hit an inflection level at 29,700.

Thereafter, it staged a bullish reversal, which suggests that its minor uptrend phase from the 19 May 2026 low remains intact.

Watch the 29,700 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 30,425 sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at 30,728/795 (upper boundary of the ascending channel & Fibonacci extension cluster) and 31,050 (Fibonacci extension).

On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 29,700 negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 29,433 and 29,110 (also the 20-day moving average).

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Markets are rallying due to the finalization of the Peace Memorandum, but final agreement by Trump and Khamenei are still awaited
• While Nasdaq continues to price heaven and shoot for it, the DJIA is surprisingly unchanged
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

Stock Markets are rallying after major diplomatic progress, as negotiators have finalized the draft of the much-anticipated US-Iran Peace Memorandum. Still, the deal is not yet official.

Axios reports that while the main framework is set, final approval is needed from both President Trump, who has asked for a few more days to review the terms, and Supreme Leader Khamenei, before the agreement is signed.

The draft shows a more balanced agreement, still tilting towards the US. The main points include keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and gradually lifting the US naval blockade over the next 30 days.

The draft also calls for Iran to get rid of its highly enriched nuclear material and allows for free commercial transit in the region.

In return, Iran will have key financial assets unfrozen, some economic sanctions lifted, and new systems set up for more humanitarian aid.

Even with this major diplomatic breakthrough, energy markets are reacting quietly today. WTI Crude Oil is almost unchanged and remains below $90 as traders wait for clear signs that the strait will reopen. Brent crude fell sharply and is now trading close to WTI, as the international risk premium has disappeared.

The tech-focused Nasdaq is rising quickly, led by gains in semiconductor and large tech companies, running for yet another all-time high, but the rise isn’t uniform, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average mostly flat.

Outside of the tech sector, most of the market is quiet, as big investors wait for the final diplomatic approvals by the respective US and Iran leaders.

Now, let’s take a look at the intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) bearish breakdown below 200-day MA, further potential weakness ahead
• Asia open: AI Capex mania fuels world stocks to all-time highs as US-Iran peace deal skepticism lingers
• Traders are desperate for more news, but the status quo is positive

Bulls are actually struggling to push the DJIA above the 50,750 major momentum pivot, despite a strong morning candle.

This indicates a potential for a wider pullback, particularly if sellers push the action below the 4H 50-period MA (50,291).

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Intraday Pivot 50,750 to 50,900 (morning highs)
• Memorial Day resistance 51,100 to 51,200

Support Levels

• February ATH Pivot 50,400 to 50,500 (Short-term Bearish below)
• Pivotal Support – 49,000 to 49,100 (mid-term bearish below)
• Momentum Support 48,500
• Pivotal Support at 48,000
• Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600

Nasdaq is attempting a run to new record highs but the action is stalling as we speak right around the previous 30,300 ATH.

Forming a bearish divergence, bulls will actually want to see a clean break in order to push for more price discovery – A rejection however would lead to at least a 29,535 retest (4H 50-Period MA)

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 30,300 Daily Top and ATH
• Current ATH 30,327 on the CFD

Support Levels

• 29,535 retest (4H 50-Period MA)
• 29,500 - 29,650 Pivot
• 29,100 - 29,250 momentum support (short-term bearish below)
• 28,000 minor support
• Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300

The S&P 500 is actually the only index reaching new record highs in today's session, but also forming a bearish divergence at the same time.

This indicates that despite the new record, momentum is not as strong as indicated – This could precede a larger pullback to 7,500.

If the bullish action continues however, 7,600 is the next step.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 7,550 - 5,770 Memorial Day ATH Resistance (double top!)
• current ATH 7,575

Support Levels

• 7,525 Past week's ATH Resistance now pivot
• 7,450 - 7,460 Minor Support (Short-term bearish below – 4H 50-period MA (7,448)
• 7,400 Key support
• Pivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260
• Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020

Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.

These are my final pieces on MarketPulse, so thank you for all who enjoyed the posts since a bit more than a year – I wish you success in the World of Trading and a long life in Markets.

Don't forget to follow me on X (link below), send me messages for any questions and you can check out my website if you want to stay in contact.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Gold (XAU/USD) has broken below its 200-day moving average for the first time in three months, increasing the risk of a fresh bearish impulsive decline within its broader medium-term downtrend.
• Rising US Treasury real yields continue to pressure gold prices, with the 10-year real yield staging a major bullish breakout toward multi-month highs, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.
• Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum remains intact below the $4,456 resistance level, with downside risks potentially extending toward $4,320 and the $4,262/$4,250 support zone.

This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) rally faces roadblock at 20-day and 50-day moving averages”, published on 7 May 2026.

Gold (XAU/USD) has indeed remained lackluster in May and failed to break above its 50-day moving average after a retest of it on 12 May 2026.

Thereafter, the precious yellow metal staged a bearish reaction after a retest on the 50-day moving average for the second time on 12 May 2026 (the first time was on 17 April 2026). It printed an intraday high of $4,774/oz on 12 May 2026 and tumbled by 10% to hit a two-month low of $4,368/oz at this time of writing.

Intermarket and technical factors are suggesting further potential weakness ahead for gold. Let’s unpack them.

The 10-year US Treasury real yield (nominal yield minus the 10-year breakeven rate derived from the 10-year Treasury inflation-protected security) has remained resilient on the upside after it managed to find support at its key 200-day moving average (1.85%) since 15 April 2026.

Thereafter, it rallied by 37 basis points to hit almost a one-year high of 2.26% on 20 May 2026 and staged a prior major bullish breakout from a former key descending channel resistance earlier on 15 May 2026 (see Fig. 1).

These observations suggest that the 10-year US Treasury real yield is likely undergoing a potential major uptrend phase (multi-month), with the next medium-term resistance coming in at 2.38% next in the first step.

Gold (XAU/USD) has a significant indirect correlation with the longer-term US Treasury yields, as the precious yellow metal is a non-interest income-bearing asset.

Hence, further upside in the 10-year US Treasury real yield translates into a further potential feedback loop into Gold (XAU/USD).

Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of Gold (XAU/USD).

Trend bias: Bearish bias below 4,456 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 3).

Supports: 4,320 (24 March 2026 low), 4,262/250 (Fibonacci extension & 23 March 2026 congestion), 4,187/167 (Fibonacci extension & 23 March 2026 swing low area).

Next resistances: 4,500 (former range support of 21/22 May 2026), 4,580 (also 20-day MA), 4,645 (also 50-day MA)

• Price actions continue to oscillate within a medium-term descending channel in place since its current all-time high printed on 29 January 2026 (see Fig. 2).
• Price action is now breaking below the key 200-day moving average, the first time in three months since a retest of it on 23 March 2026.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator is in an oversold region (below the 30 level), but without any bullish divergence signal, suggesting near-term bearish momentum is likely still intact.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Global equities climbed to fresh record highs as the AI infrastructure supercycle continued to dominate market sentiment, with hyperscalers projected to spend up to $1 trillion on AI capex by 2027.
• Markets remain highly sensitive to conflicting US-Iran peace deal headlines, driving sharp volatility in oil prices, bond yields, and broader risk sentiment across global asset classes.
• Sticky inflation and increasingly hawkish central bank rhetoric have reinforced expectations of prolonged restrictive monetary policy, with traders now pricing higher odds of Fed and ECB rate hikes.
• Chart of the day: Nikkei 225 at risk of corrective pull-back below 65,665 key short-term resistance.

• World stocks advance to record heights: Global equity indices, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and MSCI All Country index, eked out fresh record highs. The momentum remains strongly supported by an unyielding AI infrastructure supercycle that continues to overrule broader macroeconomic headwinds.
• US-Iran peace progress met with extreme skepticism: Volatility continues to rock the energy sector amid conflicting headlines regarding a breakthrough in the Middle East. While Iranian state media cited an unofficial memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a month, the White House forcefully rejected the report, calling it a "complete fabrication."
• Trillion-dollar tech IPO pipeline expands: Speculation surrounding Elon Musk's public market footprint is heating up as SpaceX prepares to debut on the Nasdaq on June 12, targeting a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. Rumors are intensifying that Musk may eventually move to merge Tesla and SpaceX/xAI to build a unified AI giant. Concurrently, OpenAI and Anthropic continue to pursue substantial private and public funding sources.
• Central Banks implement hawkish directives: Global monetary policy cycles are shifting aggressively toward headwinds. Following recent rate hikes in Australia and Norway, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept rates on hold in a highly contested split decision that points to imminent hikes. Simultaneously, European Central Bank officials deliver strong hawkish guidance, emphasizing that rate hikes should proceed regardless of Middle East peace outcomes. The short-term interest rate swaps market is now showing an increasing odds of a 25-basis-point hike from the ECB in June.

• AI Capex Supercycle vs. Dotcom Bubble Parallels: Cloud hyperscalers are projected to pour over $850 billion into AI infrastructure this year and up to $1 trillion in 2027. While the massive capital expenditures are absorbing enormous amounts of operational cash flow and driving up corporate debt, analysts from Goldman Sachs emphasize that a market crash is not imminent, as these tech giants are delivering concrete, strong earnings growth compared to the speculative late-1990s dotcom mania.
• The repricing of Fed trajectory before key PCE: Heading into Thursday's highly anticipated April PCE report, the first major inflation data of the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh era at the Fed, economists expect headline annual PCE to accelerate to 3.8% y/y and core annual PCE to jump to 3.3% y/y. Sticky inflation and the ongoing war shock have completely erased 2026 rate cut hopes, with Fed funds futures traders now pricing in 60% probability of an active Fed interest rate hike by year-end.
• The sovereign yield burden & corporate debt safe havens: Due to sticky inflation, deteriorating public finances in Washington, and massive upcoming Treasury coupon supply, investor sentiment toward U.S. sovereign debt has soured. Consequently, fund managers are increasingly eschewing Treasuries to flock into top-tier, blue-chip U.S. corporate debt, as corporate America's balance sheets increasingly look more sound than Washington's debt.

Equities: Wall Street was mixed but steady; the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 notched new record highs, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished basically flat. Gains were led by consumer discretionary (+1.9%), with United Airlines gaining 6%, while software and chip names consolidated, with Qualcomm dropping 6%, and Nvidia slipped by 1%. Europe closed flat, and the UK FTSE gained 0.1%.

Fixed Income: U.S. Treasury yields eased slightly by 1-2 basis points. A heavy multi-billion dollar 5-year sovereign note auction registered acceptable investor demand ahead of top-tier PCE inflation data out later today.

FX: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remained mostly flat. The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) skyrocketed by 1.0% to emerge as the largest G10 mover following the hawkish RBNZ split decision. The Japanese Yen slumped to a fresh 4-week low towards 159.50 per USD, entering acute verbal and physical intervention zones.

Commodities: Crude oil prices tumbled by 4.0%, sliding back below the critical $100/barrel handle as energy traders tentatively priced in the state-television peace rumors. Precious metals remained under severe pressure from higher global yield tracking; spot gold slipped further to trade near a fresh 2-month low at $4,456/oz, just above its 200-day moving average ($4,394/oz).

• South Korean and regional indices explode: South Korea's benchmark KOSPI spearheaded global equity gains, skyrocketing 3.0% to print a major record high on Wednesday, 27 May. The explosive rally is heavily driven by its twin memory chip giants, Samsung Electronics (+158% YTD) and SK Hynix (+258% YTD), both of which have been vaulted into the exclusive $1-trillion-valuation club due to insatiable AI infrastructure demand.
• Japan eyeing June hike amid slumping currency: Despite massive sovereign bond yield volatility, reports reveal the Bank of Japan is actively eyeing a June interest rate hike. This comes as the Japanese yen's purchasing power sinks to fresh lows under the weight of expensive energy imports, leaving it tracking as one of the world's weakest major currencies. Concurrently, SoftBank is pulling in 30 leading Japanese manufacturers to back a major homegrown AI industrial data venture.
• India falter and capital exits accelerate: In stark contrast to its East Asian peers, India's benchmark equity indices are faltering as foreign institutional investors dump domestic shares at a record-breaking pace. Millions of retail investors are shifting capital out of the country into foreign markets (up 57% y/y) due to a complete lack of AI exposure at home, a rapidly depreciating Rupee, and consecutive fuel price hikes stoking structural inflation.

1. US PCE Core Inflation (Apr) - 8:30 pm SGT (consensus: 3.3% y/y, Mar: 3.2% y/y) Impact: All asset classes
2. US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims - 8.30 pm SGT Impact: USD, short-term US Treasuries, US stock indices
3. US-Iran peace deal news flows Impact: All asset classes

The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) have hit a short-term inflection/resistance level of 66,190/558 on Wednesday, 27 May 2026, after it breached above the upper boundary of a major ascending channel, running from the 7 April 2026 low.

In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator flashed out a prior bearish divergence condition at its overbought level before it staged a bearish breakdown below its 50 level.

These observations suggest an impending minor corrective pull-back/setback. Watch the 65,665 key short-term pivotal resistance. A break below 64,620 near-term support (downside trigger level) may expose the next intermediate supports at 63,788/270 and 62,510 (also close to the 20-day moving average).

However, a clearance above 65,665 invalidates the bearish scenario for a continuation of the bullish impulsive upmove sequence to retest the current all-time high area of 66,190/558 before potentially setting sight on the next intermediate resistance at 67,047 (Fibonacci extension).

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Global financial markets are on edge as traders wait for clear details about the new US-Iran peace plan.

After two months of intense tension and repeated ceasefire extensions, a concrete framework is finally being discussed.

Both sides know what is at stake: the US wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened without conditions and Iran’s nuclear program dismantled, while Iran wants a full regional ceasefire and a withdrawal of US troops.

The big question for markets now is whether negotiators can bring some still contradicting demands together in the next 60 days.

Even with uncertainty still in the air, the current situation is giving strong support to risk assets.

The fact that tensions are not turning into a wider war is a major positive change. This relief has pushed the tech-focused Nasdaq to new record highs above 30,000 this morning, up 4% since last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average also broke records on Monday’s holiday and is trying to move higher, though today’s trading has been slower and more steady.

This particularly reflects the large change seen in Crude Oil prices, down just shy of 10% since the weekly open.

Still, there is some caution in the market because the White House has not shown much excitement about the final details of the deal.

President Trump made it clear that Iran will not get immediate sanctions relief for giving up its highly enriched uranium.

This firm position shows that, even though there is a Memorandum of Understanding, reaching a full treaty is still very complicated and faces many diplomatic challenges.

Even if the risk of re-escalation has eased, many details are still unclear and traders are turning their attention back to economic data awaiting for the headlines.

With few major events early this week, big investors are waiting for tomorrow’s important Core PCE report.

This key inflation number will show if the recent oil-driven supply shocks have hurt the US economy more than expected, which could make things harder for the Federal Reserve’s next moves (the next FOMC meeting is on June 17).

These are my final pieces on MarketPulse, so thank you for all who enjoyed the posts since a bit more than a year – I wish you success in the World of Trading and a long life in Markets.

With time, resistance and resilience, things will fall in order.

Don't forget to follow me on X (link below), send me messages for any questions and you can check out my website if you want to stay in contact.

Safe Trades and Keep your eyes on the news!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Markets are rebalancing from Nasdaq to Dow Jones as risk-appetite is staying stable
• Traders are still remaining hopeful due to the pricing of a peace process with a deal pending
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

US stock indexes are going through a steady rebalancing today, with market risk appetite holding steady. Instead of a big sell-off, large investors are moving money out of the tech sector and into the more stable blue-chip stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Traders remain deeply hopeful about the broader macroeconomic backdrop, largely because the tape has already priced in the Traders are optimistic about the overall economic outlook, mainly because the market has already factored in the details of the US-Iran peace process.

The new Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) is the main reason for this positive mood, as it aims to settle the last major disagreements between the two countries. With the risk of energy supply problems now off the table, investors feel comfortable staying invested in stocks, even if the market's short-term gains are slowing down.

One problem is that the latest news came more pessimistic than expected, with Trump announcing that he is not satisfied with the latest Iranian Deal – So that remains a story to develop.

Upon hitting that historic target, short-term sellers immediately stepped into the tech sector to lock in massive profits, subsequently using that freshly generated liquidity to buy back the underperformed Dow Jones instead.

This classic sector rotation is keeping the broader market entirely stable, capping the downside while investors patiently await the next wave of concrete geopolitical headlines to confirm the finalized treaty.

Now, let’s take a look at the intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• The Dollar contradicts the peace trade – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overview
• All about the peace process – North American Mid-Week Market Update
• Cryptos fail to generate momentum continuous confusion – BTC and Ethereum (ETH) Technical Outlook

Bulls resurfaced at the prior ATH (50,500) and are holding the Market in place – Still, keep an eye on the key support and the Pivot level right above (50,800) to determine who has the advantage.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Intraday Pivot 50,800 to 50,900
• Memorial Day resistance 51,100 to 51,200

Support Levels

• February ATH Pivot 50,400 to 50,500 (Short-term Bearish below)
• Pivotal Support – 49,000 to 49,100 (mid-term bearish below)
• Momentum Support 48,500
• Pivotal Support at 48,000
• Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600

Nasdaq wicked to new highs but is back once again below the 30,000 level, indicating some more doubts around immediate pricing – Keep track of the latest news to see if more upside is to be warranted or a correction could come.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 30,300 Daily Top and ATH
• 29,850 - 30,000 Memorial Day top Resistance
• Current ATH 30,327 on the CFD

Support Levels

• 29,500 - 29,600 Pivot
• 29,100 - 29,250 momentum support (short-term bearish below)
• 28,000 minor support
• Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300

The S&P 500 is forming an intraday double top at 7,557, indicating that some trouble could be coming on the short-term.

The action remains bullish long term but the latest news are clouding the picture.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 7,550 Memorial Day ATH Resistance (double top!)
• 7,525 Past week's ATH Resistance now pivot
• Current ATH 7,557

Support Levels

• 7,450 - 7,460 Minor Support (Short-term bearish below – 4H 50-period MA (7,448)
• 7,400 Key support
• 7,320 to 7,340 Past week retracement
• Pivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260
• Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020
• Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900

Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.

These are my final pieces on MarketPulse, so thank you for all who enjoyed the posts since a bit more than a year – I wish you success in the World of Trading and a long life in Markets.

Don't forget to follow me on X (link below), send me messages for any questions and you can check out my website if you want to stay in contact.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global Markets
• Global Assets have all pushed for the pricing of a now decisive peace process between the US and Iran after two full months of ceasefire
• Stock Markets have all exploded to new highs, but this also adds to the expectations of a concrete deal ahead

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.

Global asset prices are now being driven by the fast-moving peace process between the United States and Iran.

After two months of a fragile ceasefire, the situation has quickly moved from a tense standoff to real progress toward a formal agreement. This shift is causing major investors in North America and around the world to move their money in response.

The main reason for this big change came on Monday, when President Trump announced a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the two countries – For those who haven’t heard the term, an MoU is a non-binding agreement that sets out the basic terms and expectations for a future treaty.

This agreement gives both sides 30 days to fully reopen the important Strait of Hormuz and includes economic concessions to Iran to help the talks succeed.

Even though there were a few minor military incidents overnight, Wall Street is largely ignoring them. Traders are focused on the Memorial Day announcement and believe the push for peace is strong enough to overcome small setbacks.

This breakthrough has had a major impact on energy markets. WTI Crude Oil prices have dropped sharply, falling back to the low $90 range.

Prices have stayed around these lows all week, showing that a large part of the war anxiety pricing is already fading.

As energy costs fall and supply chain risks fade, major North American stock indices have surged to new record highs, particularly Nasdaq reaching 30,000.

Investors are optimistic right now, but this rapid rise means there is no room for mistakes in the peace process. The market is now counting on a clear and successful final agreement.

Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap.

Read More:

• Cryptos fail to generate momentum continuous confusion – BTC and Ethereum (ETH) Technical Outlook
• Markets are sending mixed feelings on the peace Deal – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday Levels
• The Dollar contradicts the peace trade – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overview

Stock Indices are once again exploding higher, with Japan putting the most impressive catch up to its past week losses and Nasdaq following close.

Overall, the rebound is global with the Strait of Hormuz new largely soothing investors.

The action in the US Dollar is quite contradicting in recent days, but is starting to tilt more to one side.

After bouncing above 99.00 last week, the DXY led a few tests within the 500 pips region (99.00 to 99.50) and after yesterday's bounce, sellers are appearing at the 4H 50-period MA indicating a failed rally – More developments will be awaited to see how this really unfolds.

Check out our past day US Dollar analysis to learn more:

The Dollar contradicts the peace trade – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overview

The Dollar is pursuing its rebound against FX Majors but is currently losing some steam as the conflict looks to be ending soon – Crude Oil maintains high correlation to the petrodollar, hence traders will need to continue to observe this development.

The Canadian Dollar is losing quite some momentum against most of its FX peers except for the Aussie Dollar, with Crude Oil lower which directly affects the Loonie.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may diminish Canadian Oil export demand.

For those following the weekly update, you may have tracked one of the clearest patterns in FX in recent times:

USD/CAD maintains its 1.3550 to 1.3950 range, with the action continuing to rebound within as we speak, approaching the upper end of it – Watch reactions to the 1.3850 micro resistance.

Levels to place on your USD/CAD charts:

Resistance Levels:

• 1.3850 Resistance
• 1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance (range highs)
• 1.3950 Range high resistance

Support Levels:

• 1.38 mini-Pivot +/- 15 pips
• 1.3750 Momentum Support
• 1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support now Pivot (4H 50-period MA)
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support (Range Lows)
• 1.35 Key Psychological Support
• End-January Lows 1.34820

It is the final Mid-Week update, so thank you for all who enjoyed the posts since a bit more than a year – I wish you success in the World of Trading and a long life in Markets.

Don't forget to follow me on X (link below), send me messages for any questions and you can check out my website to learn more.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.