• The 2026 Trump-Xi summit is viewed as a critical geopolitical event for financial markets, with investors primarily seeking signs of stabilisation in US-China trade relations, technology restrictions, and broader geopolitical tensions.
• Markets are focused on potential progress in semiconductor export controls, AI technology access, Taiwan-related communication channels, and currency stability, as even modest diplomatic improvements could support risk assets and Asian equities.
• The most likely market outcome remains a limited “managed competition” framework rather than a comprehensive trade deal, which could trigger only a temporary relief rally before markets refocus on inflation, oil prices, and Federal Reserve policy risks.

Today’s two-day meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing is shaping up to be one of the most consequential geopolitical events for global markets in 2026

The summit comes at a time of heightened tensions driven by trade frictions, technology restrictions, Taiwan-related security concerns, and the inflation shock stemming from the Iran conflict.

Markets are likely expecting a de-escalation framework instead of a comprehensive trade agreement. Possible outcomes include:

• Partial tariff rollbacks or suspension of new tariffs.
• Agreements to resume high-level economic dialogue.
• China pledges increased purchases of US agricultural, energy, or industrial goods.
• Reduced rhetoric on export controls and sanctions.

A broad structural trade deal remains unlikely due to strategic rivalry between the two powers.

Technology remains the core battleground. Investors will focus on:

• Potential easing or delay of US semiconductor export restrictions (Watch out for potential easing of controls on Nvidia's H200 AI chips to China).
• Negotiations surrounding AI chips, rare earths, EV batteries, and critical minerals.
• Whether China receives any concessions on access to advanced technology.

Any softening stance could trigger strong rallies in Asian tech equities and semiconductor-linked stocks.

A key objective may simply be reducing geopolitical tail risks:

• Re-establishment of military communication hotlines.
• Commitments to avoid escalation around the Taiwan Strait.
• Diplomatic language aimed at reducing accidental military confrontation.

Even symbolic cooperation would likely be viewed positively by risk assets.

Given recent USD volatility and concerns over inflation:

• China may resist sharp yuan depreciation (the offshore CNH has continued to strengthen in the past week, approaching a 3-year high of 6.7740 per USD).
• The US may seek commitments against competitive devaluation.
• Both sides could emphasize financial stability to calm bond and FX markets.

This would matter significantly for Asian FX, emerging markets, and global risk sentiment.

• Positive scenario (most market-friendly):
  Limited trade truce with improved diplomatic tone may trigger a rally in equities, Asian exporters, semiconductors, and cyclical assets.
• Neutral scenario (most likely):
  Constructive dialogue, but few concrete deliverables may lead to a short-term relief rally followed by renewed focus on inflation and rates.
• Negative scenario (least likely):
  Breakdown in talks or aggressive rhetoric on tariffs/Taiwan sees a risk-off move into USD, gold, Treasuries, and defensive sectors.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US inflation pressures intensified after April PPI surged 6.0% y/y, reinforcing the “higher for longer” Federal Reserve narrative and fuelling expectations that any future Fed move could shift toward rate hikes rather than cuts.
• Donald Trump and Xi Jinping began high-stakes talks in Beijing, with AI competition, semiconductor restrictions, and Middle East geopolitical tensions dominating market focus.
• Despite rising bond yields and inflation shocks, AI-driven equity momentum remained resilient as the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 climbed to fresh record highs, while energy markets stayed elevated above $100/bbl due to worsening Strait of Hormuz supply concerns.
• Chart of the day: AUD/USD bullish breakout from minor range configuration, 0.7210 key short-term support with next intermediate resistances at 0.7265, 0.7300, and 0.7340.

• US producer prices surge: April PPI jumped 1.4% month-over-month and 6.0% year-over-year, marking the biggest gain in four years. The hotter-than-expected print confirms inflation is accelerating amid the ongoing conflict with Iran.
• Trump arrives in Beijing for high-stakes summit: President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joined the US delegation, highlighting the focus on the global AI race and the proposed US "MATCH Act" targeting Chinese chipmakers.
• EIA drastically revises Oil supply hit: The US Energy Information Administration revised its forecasts, projecting a much longer and more severe disruption to global oil supplies as Iran moves to formalize control over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed official: The US Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh to a 14-year term as a Federal Reserve governor, setting him up as the likely successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
• Alibaba posted an operating loss on AI Spend: Alibaba Group ADRs slipped 3% after posting its first operating loss since the pandemic, underscoring the massive capital expenditures required to compete in the AI space. Interestingly, its ADR recovered as the US session progressed and ended with a gain of 8% to close at a near 5-month high.

• Inflation resurgence cements "Higher for Longer": Following the 3.8% CPI print, the massive 6.0% y/y headline PPI surge has completely wiped out remaining hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2026, and reflected an increase in rate hike bets coming in the first half of 2027, according to data from the CME FedWatch tool.
• The cost of the AI arms race: Alibaba's earnings reflect a growing reality: the AI supercycle requires staggering, profitability-draining capital expenditures. Markets will increasingly scrutinize tech giants to balance AI spending with near-term margins.
• Structural geopolitical premiums: The oil market is shifting from pricing a "temporary disruption" to a "persistent geopolitical premium" as the Middle East conflict restricts global supply chain norms.

Equities: US stock markets remained buoyant despite a red-hot PPI print. Supported by tech stocks, the S&P 500 (+0.6%) and the Nasdaq 100 (+1%) rallied to another record high.

Fixed Income: The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to an intraday high of 4.5% on Wednesday, 13 May, hitting a 10-month high as bond markets fully absorb the dual CPI and PPI inflation shocks.

FX: The US Dollar Index (DXY) extended gains to 98.45, marking a third consecutive session of strength as investors increased bets on a prolonged restrictive Fed policy.

Commodities: WTI and Brent crude remain elevated over $100/bbl following the EIA's grim supply revisions. Spot Gold is holding near $4,645/oz, supported by haven demand ahead of the Beijing summit.

• Stock markets: Chinese and Hong Kong equities will be in focus, following Alibaba's earnings miss, China's vocal opposition to the US MATCH Act, and the Trump-Xi summit gets underway. Tech heavyweights like Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, and Xiaomi will be closely watched. In today’s early Asia season, the China and Hong Kong stock markets opened with an upbeat tone; CSI 300 (+0.1%), China A50 (+0.1%), and Hang Seng Index (+1.1%) at this time of writing.
• Currencies: The yuan traded almost unchanged against the USD at 6.7855 per US dollar in today’s Asia opening hours as the Trump-Xi summit gets underway. The offshore yuan (CNH) has rallied for six consecutive sessions against the USD. It is now eyeing a near 3-year high of 6.7740 per US dollar as the market seems to be pricing a status quo in terms of US-China trade relations after the summit.
• Economic outlook: All regional eyes are on the Beijing summit. Any signs of diplomatic progress regarding Iran or AI trade regulations could trigger massive, rapid reversals in regional risk sentiment.

1. Trump-Xi Summit Developments Impact: USD/CNH, global equities, WTI, Brent crude
2. UK Q1 GDP Prelim - 2:00 pm SGT (consensus: 0.8% y/y, Q4 2025: 1% y/y) Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FTSE 100
3. US Retail Sales (Apr) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 0.5% m/m, Mar: 1.7% m/m) Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indices
4. US Initial Jobless Claims (week ending 9 May) - (consensus: 205K, prior: 200K) Impact: USD, short-term US Treasuries, US stock indices
5. Applied Materials Earnings - after US session close Impact: Semiconductor stocks, Nasdaq 100

The price actions of the AUD/USD have staged a bullish breakout from a minor “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration on Wednesday, 13 May 2026.

Currently, it is retesting the former “Symmetrical Triangle” range resistance, which has now become a near-term pull-back support at 0.7244, as indicated by the hourly RSI momentum indicator, which is holding at the 50 level (see Fig. 1).

Watch the 0.7210 key short-term pivotal support on the AUD/USD. A clearance above 0.7265 triggers the next intermediate resistances at 0.7300 and 0.7340.

However, a break and an hourly close below 0.7210 negates the bullish tone for another round of potential minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support at 0.7180 (also the 20-day moving average), below it may see further weakness towards 0.7145/7130 next.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US Stock Benchmarks rise but show mixed reactions to the confirmation of Kevin Warsh to become the next Fed Chair
• Nasdaq and S&P 500 continue to explode to new all-time highs, while the Dow Jones still struggles
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

After a long and uncertain process, the Senate has confirmed that Kevin Warsh will officially replace Jerome Powell as the head of the Federal Reserve for a four-year term.

Although he has not served on the Federal Reserve board since 2011, the new Fed Chair has stayed close to economics and finance as a partner at Stanley Druckenmiller's family office, which is one of the world’s top-performing hedge funds.

US stock benchmarks are mostly rising after the news, but the market’s reaction to Warsh’s confirmation is mixed.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq continues to jump to new all-time highs, signalling a welcome change and benefiting from strong momentum in growth stocks.

In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still struggling, as blue-chip investors try to figure out how a Fed led by Warsh will address persistent inflation and ongoing global challenges.

Overall, the reaction across different asset classes shows that Participants are feeling uncertain.
Both the US Dollar and Precious metals are still rising, building on their strong weekly gains as investors look for cover their bearish positions in the asset class, while, cryptocurrencies and US Treasuries continue to struggle.

The Market division shows that the market is still unsure about the new Fed Chair’s approach – hence, traders will have to assess his views at the coming FOMC meeting on June 17.

Explore the different reactions in Stock Markets by diving into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Inflation is buoyant and Trump lands in China – North American Mid-Week Market Update
• Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 faces pullback risk as semiconductor rally shows signs of exhaustion
• Gold (XAU/USD) rises slow and steady – In-depth Gold technical analysis

The Stock Market heatmap is still heavily fractured – Stock Market leaders like Nvidia, Tesla, Eli Lilly and a few semiconductors are doing the heavy lifting while other names largely struggle and the AI boom continues to bulldoze the Nasdaq to new records.

After initial struggles, the Dow Jones is rallying back to the top of its tighter consolidation between 49,500 and 49,800, which provides further strength of support and resistance levels.

For an upside breakout, look for a 1H candle break on high volume above 49,800 – the confirmation comes on a close above 50,000.

On the other hand, bears will want to see a break below 49,500 and a longer-run pullback below 49,000.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• 49,780 post-Warsh confirmation highs
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs (range highs)
• ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500
• All-Time Highs 50,544

Support Levels

• April 14 Gap Fill Pivot 49,500 (mini range lows – short-term bearish below))
• Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (mid-term bearish below)
• Momentum Support 48,500
• Pivotal Support at 48,000
• Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600

Despite the record highs reached in today's session, led by a gigantic rebound after yesterday's rough correction, the immediate highs aren't so optimistic.

Indeed, the new record is stalling right above the previous record, a price action that hints at stop chasing rather than a continuous rise – Still, the previous rally hints at decent potential for upside, but to confirm, the index will have to print above 29,600.

On the other hand, if the action falls below the 50-Hour MA (29,160), the action may get dire.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 29,485 morning highs
• Next level 29,600 (Short-term bullish above)

Support Levels

• 50-Hour MA (29,160) (ST bearish below)
• 28,500 short-term pivot
• 28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)
• Momentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)
• Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750
• Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300

The S&P 500 is continuously following the higher part of its bull channel, helping a consistent bounce to new all-time highs – The Index is showing the strongest intraday price action out of the 3 major US Benchmarks.

As long as the action remains above the Channel's mid-line 7,375, expect the rally to persistent records to continue.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 7,390 - 7,400 Channel extension resistance (morning highs)
• 7,415 161.% Fib
• Next stop 7,480

Support Levels

• Momentum Pivot 7,250 to 7,260
• Channel lows 7,230 (bearish below)
• 7,100 psychological level
• Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020
• Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global Markets
• Traders have been preparing for the Trump-Xi meeting for months and it is finally happening, with the two leaders meeting in Beijing
• While the US-Iran war takes a step back in the headlines, economies are not welcoming its side-effects on inflation, exploding in recent releases

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.

Traders have spent months getting ready for the quintessential Trump-Xi summit, and now it is finally taking place.

As the two leaders meet in person in Beijing, the broader market is waiting to see what happens. Many expect this meeting to bring major geopolitical, economic progress and push back against the de-globalization worries that were common in 2025.

While investors await for further news, most asset classes are staying in consolidation.

WTI Crude Oil is the only exception to the market pause. Continuous supply shortages are pushing oil prices back above $100, and even though the US-Iran war is getting less daily coverage, its serious economic effects are becoming more obvious.

Tuesday’s CPI report showed a large 3.7% increase, 0.2% above expectations, but what really worried traders was this morning’s PPI release (Producer Price Index). Wholesale inflation came in at 5.2% year-over-year, much higher than the expected 4.9%.

A 1.4% rise on the month!

These back-to-back inflation reports are not so surprising, but definitely unpleasant. Since producer costs usually lead to higher consumer prices later, the high PPI suggests that retail inflation could remain high in the coming months.

This structural inflation spike almost guarantees there will be no rate cuts at the upcoming meetings, as seen in the Fed Rate pricing.

This rise in structural inflation means the Federal Reserve and other central banks will not be able to find an easy solution.

As seen in the last meetings across major Central Banks, policymakers are already changing their guidance and reconsidering whether to cut rates or raise them further.

Economic clarity from the Trump-Xi talks, the broader FX markets—and particularly the US Dollar—are remaining remarkably stoic, bracing for the next massive fundamental catalyst.

Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap.

Read More:

• Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 faces pullback risk as semiconductor rally shows signs of exhaustion
• Asia open: US inflation reaccelerates to 3.8%, and chip stocks falter
• Gold (XAU/USD) rises slow and steady – In-depth Gold technical analysis

Both the Nasdaq and Japanese Nikkei 225 are dominating the charts over the past week and half, largely outperforming the more defensive and traditional TSX, Dow Jones and DAX.

The US Dollar is rallying slowly towards the 98.50 pivot zone, undoing a decent part of its Ceasefire correction.

The current test will be very important – US Dollar bulls will want to see a continuous rise above the 4H 200-period MA (98.72), while bears will want to see a slowdown and rejection around current levels.

Levels to place on your DXY charts:

Resistance Levels

• 98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot
• 4H 200-period MA (98.72)
• 99.30 to 99.50 Resistance
• 100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highs
• War Highs 100.544 (Double Top)

Support Levels

• 98.18 4H 50-period MA
• 98.00 Major Support
• Support 97.40 to 97.60
• 2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00

The Dollar is back in a much stronger position after recent weeks of struggle, but the rise isn't uniform – With the exception of the Yen, all Asia-Pacific major currencies are up against the greenback, as their respective Central Banks' hawkish pricing dominates!

The Canadian Dollar is actually losing some ground against all majors – A bizarre divergence when looking at Crude prices still exploding every second.

This will be a divergence to capture for some mean-reversion traders if this dynamic doesn't correct by then.

Volatility in FX Markets is slowly decreasing and USD/CAD, while rallying from its range lows, seems to be decreasing the pace of its rise, as indicated by the diverging RSI from overbought levels.

Levels to place on your USD/CAD charts:

Resistance Levels:

• 1.3720 – 1.3750 Resistance
• 1.38 mini-Resistance +/- 150 pips
• 1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance (range highs)

Support Levels:

• 1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support now Pivot (4H 50-period MA)
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support (Range Lows)
• 1.35 Key Psychological Support
• End-January Lows 1.34820

Except for the many Fed Speeches expected throughout the coming 7 days, traders will await for a few economic releases including the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing release next Monday, and Canadian CPI on Tuesday.

And don't forget the Beige Book next Wednesday afternoon!

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Nasdaq 100 extended its medium-term bullish trend to a fresh record high of 29,390, supported largely by explosive gains in semiconductor and AI-related stocks such as Intel, Advanced Micro Devices, and SanDisk.
• The strong correlation between the Nasdaq 100 and the iShares Semiconductor ETF suggests that emerging exhaustion signals in semiconductor stocks could trigger a near-term corrective pullback in the broader tech-heavy index.
• Bearish technical indicators, including bearish RSI divergence, overstretched price action above the 20-day moving average, and Bollinger Band exhaustion conditions, point to rising risks of a short-term mean reversion decline below the 29,505/615 resistance zone.

This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Nasdaq 100 bulls still in control above 28,280 key support amid US-Iran tensions”, published on 8 May 2026.

The price actions of the US Nasdaq CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) have surged as expected; it rallied by 3.2% from Friday, 8 May 2026 intraday low of 28,480 to hit a fresh all-time intraday high of 29,390 on Monday, 11 May 2026 in the US session.

Its current medium-term uptrend phase has been in place since the 30 March 2026 low, and a significant contribution of the gains has been from US semiconductor and AI-hardware related stocks, such as SanDisk (+151%), Intel (+150%), and Advanced Micro Devices (+105%) in the past three months.

The price movement of the Nasdaq 100 and the iShares Philadelphia (PHLX) Semiconductor Sector exchange-traded fund (SOXX) has moved in almost perfect direct lockstep (see Fig. 1).

The 20-day rolling coefficient between the Nasdaq 100 and SOXX stands at 0.95, which indicates that future movements of US semiconductor stocks, using SOXX as a bellwether is likely to have a significant influence and impact on the Nasdaq 100.

The prior 6-week consecutive rally of the SOXX has reached an overstretched volatility condition, as seen in the daily Bollinger Bands indicator.

The daily price action of SOXX has a daily close above the upper Bollinger Band (two standard deviations away from the 20-day moving average) on Monday, 11 May 2026, coupled with a bearish divergence condition seen on the daily RSI momentum indicator at its overbought zone (see Fig. 2).

These observations suggest the bullish impulsive up move of SOXX since the 30 March 2026 low has reached a potential bullish exhaustion condition, where the next movement may be a multi-day corrective decline sequence, in turn, triggering a negative feedback loop into the Nasdaq 100.

Let’s now uncover the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of the Nasdaq 100 from a technical analysis perspective.

Trend bias: Minor corrective decline below 29,505/615 key short-term pivotal resistance within medium-term uptrend (see Fig. 3).

Supports: 28,660, 28,460/280, and 27,850 (close to the 20-day moving average)

Next resistances: 29,893/953 and 30,410/417 (Fibonacci extension clusters)

• The current all-time intraday high of 29,390 printed on Monday, 11 May 2026, has moved significantly away from its 20-day moving average by almost 6%.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator flashed a bearish divergence condition on Monday, 11 May 2026.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bearish breakdown below its key ascending support on Tuesday, 12 May 2026.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US inflation accelerated sharply in April, with headline CPI rising to 3.8% y/y and core CPI to 2.8% y/y, reinforcing the “higher-for-longer” Federal Reserve narrative and effectively eliminating expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
• Semiconductor stocks led a broad technology pullback after an extended rally, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 3% as major chip names, including Qualcomm and Intel, experienced aggressive profit-taking.
• Chart of the day: USD/JPY climbed toward the key 157.90 intervention risk zone as rising US yields strengthened the US dollar, although bearish RSI divergence now signals growing short-term upside exhaustion risks.

• US consumer prices jump further: Headline annual US CPI inflation rose to 3.8% y/y in April, higher than expected and the highest in three years. This means real wage growth has turned negative for the first time since 2023. Core inflation also jumped to 2.8% y/y, its steepest rise since September 2025.
• Iran peace deal on 'life support': Hopes for a Middle East peace resolution are fading rapidly after US President Donald Trump stated the US-Iran ceasefire is on "life support," sending oil prices sharply higher.
• Semiconductor sector sells off: A 70% rally over the past six weeks in chip stocks unraveled, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) falling 3%. Market darlings like Qualcomm (-11.5%) and Intel (-7%) dragged down the broader tech sector.
• US and Japan address FX volatility: Amid a surging US dollar, US and Japanese officials, including Bessent, agreed that excess foreign exchange volatility is undesirable.
• Anthropic share transfer rules raise doubts: AI giant Anthropic updated rules surrounding the buying and transfer of its shares, raising doubts about ownership rights ahead of its highly anticipated IPO.

• Fed rate cut bets wiped out: The historic energy shock and 3.8% CPI print have completely wiped out market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. If the Fed does move, current pricing from the CME FedWatch tool shows it will be to tighten.
• Political pressures stoke global yields: Wary that a successor to UK leader Keir Starmer may increase borrowing, long-term UK bond yields have surged to their highest levels since 1998. This complements rising yields in the US due to inflation fears.
• Potential froth coming off the AI rally: The sharp decline in semiconductors suggests investors are taking profits from an overheated sector, exacerbated by wild volatility in Asian tech markets and rising long-term borrowing costs.

Equities: The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.9%, dragged down by semiconductor stocks. The Dow inched higher by only 0.1%. Europe closed in the red. US healthcare was a bright spot, gaining 2% with UnitedHealth up 3%.

Fixed Income: US Treasury yields surged 5 bps across the curve, reacting to inflation data and a soft 10-year note auction characterized by a low bid/cover ratio. UK 30-year yields hit highs not seen since 1998.

FX: The US Dollar rose broadly as rate cut expectations evaporated. Sterling fell 0.5%, becoming the biggest decliner among major currencies amid UK political uncertainty.

Commodities: Oil prices rebounded aggressively on fading ceasefire hopes, with WTI surging 4% to move back above the critical $100/bbl level. Brent rallied by 3% to close at $107.70/bbl.

• Stock markets: Japan managed to end higher on Tuesday, 12 May, but Asia ex-Japan broadly declined. South Korea's KOSPI ended down 2% after a wild rollercoaster ride, setting the tone for the global semiconductor sell-off.
• Currencies: The South Korean Won slumped 1% against the surging US Dollar, reflecting vulnerability to the global energy shock and risk-off sentiment.
• Economic outlook: Focus shifts heavily to the upcoming Trump-Xi Beijing summit. Investors are seeking clarity on AI policies and broader trade relations as inflation risks mount globally.

1. AU Wespac Consumer Confidence (May) - 9.30 am SGT Impact: AUD/USD, AUD crosses, ASX 200
2. Euro Zone Q1 GDP (Flash) & Industrial Production (Mar) - 5:00 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAX
3. US Producer Price Inflation (Apr) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 4.9% y/y, Mar: 4% y/y) Impact: US Treasuries, USD, US stock indices
4. Asian Earnings Heavyweights: Tencent, Alibaba, Nissan, Softbank Impact: Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, Global Tech stocks

The recent four-day rebound of 1.8% in the USD/JPY, from the 6 May 2026 low of 155.03, has reached the prior Japanese authorities’ “stealth intervention” level of 157.90.

In addition, short-term momentum has turned bearish, as the hourly RSI momentum indicator has flashed a bearish divergence condition at its overbought region on Tuesday, May 12, in the US session.

Watch the 158.10 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 156.50 may see a further potential drop to retest the next intermediate supports at 155.55 and 154.65 (see Fig. 1).

However, a clearance with an hourly close above 158.10 negates the bearish scenario for a further squeeze up to see the next intermediate resistances coming in at 158.60 (also the 50-day moving average) and 159.10.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After yesterday's sharp rally in alternative precious metals, with Copper, Platinum, and Silver all surging as Chinese inflation reached a 45-month high, the strong upward momentum has now eased.

However, Precious Commodities traders were caught off guard by this morning's higher-than-expected US inflation report.

As the US Dollar surged in response to the hawkish CPI data, traditional risk assets and alternative metals pulled back.

Still, the metals complex is holding strong relative to the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the broader cryptocurrency market, which are seeing much sharper declines today.

Broad financial markets are now essentially frozen in a state of suspended animation following the CPI release – Participants eyes are firmly turning toward the monumental Trump-Xi diplomatic summit scheduled over the next three days.

This high-stakes meeting between the world's two largest economic superpowers is virtually guaranteed to rock global investor appetite and set the directional tone for the remainder of the quarter – And metals won't be isolated from such dynamics.

Despite the current economic and geopolitical uncertainty, Gold has stayed relatively quiet: The metal is consolidating within its wide $4,500 to $4,900 range.

By holding steady and absorbing market volatility, Gold is building a solid technical foundation for a possible longer-term rally.

Importantly, Gold has stayed resilient even with recent hawkish data and the fast-paced rise in Crude oil prices; Ongoing relative strength which suggests that the fundamental outlook for this safe-haven asset may be changing in the near future.

Traders should expect massive, headline-driven volatility in the very near term all across Markets and the Yellow Metals – The ultimate question is which direction this historic consolidation will finally break.

Let's dive right into a multi-timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) to look where the action could head for the rest of the week, if not weeks.

Read More:

• Silver (XAG/USD) is in breakout mode, pushing above $85 – In-depth Silver technical analysis
• The US Dollar rallies back after CPI, is the correction is over ? – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overview
• Chart alert: WTI crude is poised for a potential volatility bullish breakout above $102.54/bbl

Gold has been forming the basis for a decent support between $4,500 and $4,900, helping the previously bearish momentum to turn neutral.

Having failed to push for further downside, bulls are slowly regaining the advantage with the Weekly RSI slowly turning bullish since the beginning of the month.

This week's candle, still forming, is for now looking like a Bullish Hammer.

After a bearish reaction to the morning US Inflation numbers, some mean reversion buying is pushing back above the previous candle, forming an bullish engulfing pattern.

Buyers will want to pursue this bullish momentum to push above the $4,780 weekly highs.

Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) trading:

Resistance Levels:

• Intraday highs $4,780
• $4,850 to $4,900 Key Resistance (Range highs)
• $5,100 Pivotal Resistance
• Gold ATH record $5,602

Support Levels:

• Daily Momentum Pivot $4,650 - $4,700
• December 2025 Support $4,500 to $4,550 (Range lows)
• Major Support $4,350 to $4,400
• War lows $4,101

The Yellow Metal is extending higher towards the end of the session, back above the $4,700 level and the 50-Hour MA.

Bulls will need to expand their strength above the intraday level to extend further – Below $4,650, the 200-Hour MA, the action may get more bearish towards the bottom of the range.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar saw a sharp correction after the fragile ceasefire began, but that downward trend has now completely stopped.

With the peace narrative having stalled, it is clear that the FX market is taking a more realistic view of the US-Iran diplomatic talks than Stock Markets, which remain optimistic despite little real progress.

Foreign exchange markets are focusing on energy prices instead of tech sector excitement, and are adjusting for geopolitical risks.

After gaining against the US Dollar in late March and early April, most major currencies are back to trading in a narrow range.

Today, though, they are quickly reversing as WTI Crude oil moves back above $100 with the recently souring narrative..

The ongoing conflict and related economic challenges are supporting the US Dollar. Although new reports suggest Iran may dilute its highly enriched uranium to 3.7% and 20%, overall diplomatic talks have stalled, and the uncertainty continues to disrupt energy supply chains while adding to the demand for the US Dollar.

Along with the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, a higher-than-expected inflation report has strengthened the US Dollar, and make sure to stay logged in because there will be more reports for inflation coming up tomorrow (PPI).

Today’s CPI showed headline inflation at 3.8% (compared to 3.7% expected) and core CPI at 2.8% (versus 2.6% forecast) – A huge rise but not so surprising considering the explosion in gas prices.

The strong inflation reading keeps suggesting that the Fed will keep rates as is (if not hiking!), putting pressure on other major currencies.

We will look at the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD to assess the current state of the FX Market and where to look next.

Discover:

• Chart alert: WTI crude is poised for a potential volatility bullish breakout above $102.54/bbl
• Asia open: Stocks hit new highs on AI optimism as US-Iran ceasefire hangs by a thread
• Silver (XAG/USD) is in breakout mode, pushing above $85 – In-depth Silver technical analysis

The US Dollar is breaking out of its end-March downward channel after forming a triple bottom right around the 97.50 level.

With the recent lows conciding with the mid-zone of the larger 96.00 to 100.00 range, the consolidation could be tightening further between 98.00 to 100.00 as long as the peace process doesn't move forward.

Expect more US Dollar rallies if the Index breaches 08.50

Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:

Resistance Levels

• 98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot
• 98.78 4h 200-period MA
• 99.40 to 99.50 Resistance
• Initial War Spike 99.68
• 100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance Zone
• War Highs 100.544

Support Levels

• 98.00 2025 Support (testing – bearish below)
• Support 97.40 to 97.60 (triple bottom)
• 2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 Support
• Range lows at Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.00

GBP/USD is still remaining between 1.3410 to 1.36 but now rejecting its resistance zone, heading back to support.

Add to the ongoing outflows political turmoil in the UK with Keir Starmer's Ministers resigning and you get there a pretty bearish outlook for the Pound.

While still far, look at whether the 1.34170 (2024 top) level holds.

Levels of interest for AUD/USD:

Resistance Levels

• December Resistance 1.36 (range highs)
• pre-FOMC Highs 1.36010
• Resistance 1.37 zone
• 2025 Resistance around 1.38

Support Levels

• Key Pivot 1.3410 to 1.3440
• 1.34170 (2024 top) level
• Pivotal Support 1.3250 - 1.33
• 1.32 War Support

EUR/USD is also rejecting its 1.18 resistance and quickly falling towards the 1.17 momentum pivot, with bearish acceleration expected as the RSI is falling below neutral.

Sellers are also breaching the 4H 50-period MA, hence this could weigh on the price action. While still lacking momentum, traders will want to confirm the action with strong bear candles and volumes within 1.1720.

Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:

Resistance Levels

• 1.17380 4H 50-period MA
• Resistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)
• 1.1830 June 2025 highs
• 1.1850 to 1.1860 Recent Test
• Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 Zone

Support Levels

• 1.17 to 1.1720 March Pivot
• Rebound highs 1.17200 (bearish below)
• Major Pivot 1.16250 to 1.16350
• 1.1540 to 1.1570 War Support
• 1.1475 to 1.15 November Support
• War lows 1.1410

Safe Trades and keep a close eye on Ceasefire news!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• West Texas Intermediate crude oil remains strongly supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions after hopes for renewed US-Iran peace talks faded, increasing the risk of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption and sustained global energy supply tightness.
• Prediction market data from Polymarket shows sharply declining probabilities of shipping traffic normalising in the Strait of Hormuz by May and June 2026, reinforcing elevated geopolitical risk premiums in oil markets.
• Technically, WTI crude is showing bullish breakout conditions above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, supported by bullish candlestick formations and positive RSI momentum, with $102.54 acting as the key breakout resistance level.

The optimism that was being priced in by global markets last week for an imminent second round of US-Iran peace deal talks to take place this week has fizzled out after US President Trump rejected Tehran’s response to the latest US proposal on Sunday.

The key hurdle is the transfer of Iran’s enriched uranium. In a nutshell, without any set dates for peace talks emerging on the near-term horizon, the ongoing two-month-plus closure in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to extend, which may aggravate the global energy and oil crunch as oil flows continue to dwindle.

Despite the fragile US-Iran ceasefire that has remained in place since 8 April 2026, oil continues to be the top-performing asset class.

From the pre-war baseline of 27 February 2026 through Friday, 8 May 2026, WTI crude oil futures surged by 42%, underscoring persistent supply disruption concerns and elevated geopolitical risk premiums in the energy market (see Fig. 1).

Betting data from Polymarket (a major prediction market platform) suggests a low probability of a return to normal shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

The probability of Hormuz’s traffic returning to normal by the end of May 2026 has been reduced to 12.5% as of 12 May 2026 from 35.5% printed on 7 May 2026.

A similar trend is evident for the end of June 2026, where the probability has fallen sharply to 37.5% from 60.5% over the same period (see Fig. 2).

Let’s now focus on the 1 to 3 days trajectory of WTI crude oil from a technical analysis perspective.

Trend bias: Rebound towards March/April 2026 medium-term range top with 95.00 as key short-term pivotal support (see Fig. 3).

Resistances: 102.54, 108.20, and 112.84

Next supports: 90.50, 86.58, and 82.89

• The price actions of the West Texas oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude oil futures) have started to accelerate higher above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages, following a brief period of subdued volatility observed on Friday, 8 May, and Monday, 11 May.
• The current daily candlestick (Tuesday, 12 May) has transformed into an impending “Bullish Marubozu” pattern after a prior daily bullish “Hammer” seen on 7 May, coupled with a retest on its key 50-day moving average. A sign of positive follow-through that may lead to higher prices.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator continues to exhibit bullish momentum conditions as it remains supported by an ascending trendline.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Nikkei 225 continued its strong rally to a fresh record high of 63,788, driven largely by technology-related heavyweights such as SoftBank Group and Murata Manufacturing.
• Despite the broader medium-term bullish trend remaining intact, technical indicators now suggest a near-term corrective pullback risk below the 64,145 resistance level, supported by a developing bearish “Head & Shoulders” pattern.
• Momentum conditions have weakened as hourly RSI bearish divergence and Elliott Wave/Fibonacci analysis point to exhaustion in the recent five-wave bullish impulsive sequence, increasing the probability of a short-term retracement toward 61,945 and lower support zones.

This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Chart alert: Nikkei 225’s bullish reversal extends towards new all-time highs”, published on 16 April 2026.

The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 index futures) have rallied as expected in the past four weeks and surpassed the 62,044, as highlighted in our earlier report.

It hit a fresh intraday all-time high of 63,788 on Monday, 11 May 2026, led by technology-related component stocks in the past month, such as Softbank Group (+58%), and Murata Manufacturing (+53%).

However, the price actions of financial assets do not move vertically, as there will be periods of countertrend movements or trend reversals due to changing sentiment.

Right now, the Nikkei 225 faces the risk of a minor corrective countertrend decline within a medium-term uptrend phase.

Let’s unpack in greater detail.

Trend bias: Minor bearish corrective decline within medium-term uptrend below 64,145 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 1).

Supports: 61,945 (neckline of “Head & Shoulders”), 61,180/60,795, and 59,970 (also the 20-day moving average).

Next resistances: 65,010/65,040 and 66,190/66,568 (Fibonacci extension and upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from the 30 March 2026 low).

• Since 7 May 2026, its price action has traced out a minor bearish reversal “Head & Shoulders” configuration, indicating a potential end of its minor uptrend phase from the 30 April 2026 low.
• Based on the Elliot Wave Theory and Fibonacci analysis, the price actions have completed a five-wave minor bullish impulsive up move sequence (labelled as i, ii, iii, iv & v) with a potential terminal level at 63,772 (based on 0.382 Fibonacci extension from the start of the minor bullish impulsive up move from the 30 April 2026 low). The next probable move is a minor corrective decline to retrace its prior five-wave minor bullish impulsive up move.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has shown a bullish exhaustion condition (bearish divergence since 7 May 2026 at its overbought region, which supports the potential incoming minor corrective decline.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Global equity markets, led by Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI, climbed to fresh record highs as AI-driven optimism continued to overpower geopolitical concerns surrounding the fragile US-Iran ceasefire.
• Rising oil prices, stronger inflation expectations, and hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric reinforced the “higher-for-longer” interest rate narrative, pushing US Treasury yields higher and supporting broad US dollar strength.
• Chart of the day: The Hang Seng Index maintained a constructive bullish structure after rebounding from its 20-day moving average, with momentum indicators suggesting potential upside continuation above the 26,210/100 support zone.

• US-Iran ceasefire 'on life support': US President Donald Trump stated the ceasefire with Iran is fading, dashing hopes for an imminent peace deal after rejecting Iran's recent proposal as "unacceptable" over the weekend.
• Global stocks reach record highs: Major indices, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI, powered to new record highs as the "artificial intelligence fever" vastly outweighed concerns over Middle East supply shocks.
• Alphabet and Amazon tap overseas debt: Tech giants are issuing debt in lower-yielding currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss francs to fund massive AI infrastructure buildouts without draining cash reserves.
• Trump heads to China for crucial summit: President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set for comprehensive talks spanning Iran, nuclear issues, trade, and AI, accompanied by a large entourage of US corporate titans from companies like Tesla, Apple, and BlackRock.
• US CPI data looms: Markets brace for Tuesday's crucial April CPI report, with headline inflation expected to jump to 3.7% y/y (from 3.3%) primarily due to the energy price shock caused by the ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure.

• AI fever overpowers geopolitics: Record US equity prices are coexisting with elevated oil and rising yields. According to BlackRock, markets are comfortably pricing in both AI-driven growth and the impact of the Middle East supply shock, remaining heavily "pro-risk" despite the chaos.
• Extreme market concentration: Top-heavy indices have become a global feature. The top 10 US stocks now account for 33% of the overall market value. [cite: 2] Meanwhile, single tech champions like Samsung and TSMC make up roughly 20% and 40% of their respective national indices.
• Inflation and hawkish Fed risks: With inflation metrics heating up and oil surging, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that the future of monetary policy could actually include interest rate increases, fundamentally challenging recent rate-cut hopes.

Equities: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at new record highs. [cite: 2] The tech sector gained 1%, and energy rallied 2.6%, while the Philadelphia semiconductor index reached a new peak (+2.6%).

Fixed Income: US Treasury yields climbed, with a 6 basis point rise at the short end bear steepening the curve as a 3-year auction drew weak demand.

FX: The US Dollar inched higher, with the Japanese Yen serving as the biggest G10 decliner. Emerging market currencies like the Indian Rupee and South Korean Won dropped sharply on dollar strength and high energy costs.

Commodities: Oil surged 3% (jumping $3/barrel) as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Silver rallied 7% to hit a 2-month high at $86.10/oz, outperforming Gold, which only recorded a modest gain of 0.4% due to a rebound in US Treasury yields.

• Stock markets: Regional markets broadly surged. The Nikkei, KOSPI, and MSCI Asia ex-Japan indices all hit new record highs. China's A-share market reached an 11-year high following a positive data dump showing surging export growth.
• Currencies: The region experienced broad weakness against the USD. The Yen (-0.3%) and Won (-1%) declined despite the massive regional equity rally.
• Economic outlook: China's latest trade data showed a widening trade surplus and rising price pressures in April, suggesting the economy is moving out of disinflation, though unemployment ticked up.

1. AU NAB Business Confidence (Apr) - 9.30 am SGT Impact: AUD/USD, AUD crosses, ASX 200
2. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (May) - 5.00 pm SGT (consensus:- 20, Apr:-20) Impact: EUR/USD. EUR crosses, DAX
3. US Core Inflation (Apr) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 2.7% y/y, Mar: 2.6% y/y) Impact: All asset classes

The price actions of the Hong Kong 33 (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) have managed a minor bullish reversal right above its 20-day moving average after a 1.7% decline from the 7 May 2026 intraday high of 26,634.

The overall price structure remains bullish as it continues to oscillate within a medium-term ascending channel in place since the 30 March 2026 low.

In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has exhibited bullish momentum conditions as it continues to be supported by an ascending trendline above the 50 level and has not reached its overbought zone (above the 70 level).

Watch the 26,210/100 key short-term pivotal support to maintain a potential bullish bias. A clearance above 26,723 sees the next intermediate resistance coming in at 27,100 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 1).

On the other hand, failure to hold and an hourly close below 26,100 jeopardizes the bullish tone for a slide to retest the next intermediate support at 25,930 (also the key 200-day moving average).

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver has officially entered what looks to be a real breakout.

As we noted in our Friday analysis, the metals sector was overdue for a rally, and that move is now underway – Silver has attracted strong buying and has surged past the key $85 level to start the week, up 7% on the session.

The macroeconomic environment is changing: In recent weeks (if not months now!), geopolitical headlines have stopped driving daily moves in most risk assets, and the precious commodities were not isolated.

Metals were hit hard at first by conflict and rate-hike fears, but while that link has not disappeared, it is fading.

Energy is now the only asset class still reacting to news coming from the Middle East, mostly because of supply issues in Hormuz and the lack of a ceasefire agreement.

One of the most interesting parts of this breakout is the fact that Silver is moving higher without help from gold, which usually sets the direction for the alternative asset class:

Normally, silver follows Gold’s moves, but this time, the strong bounce suggests there is real demand and strong buying interest focused on alternative metals instead.

Traders could also be responding to China’s higher inflation report from yesterday, which suggests its inflation, a short-cut for economic activity after deflationary trends, is starting to recover.

Silver and Copper are not just precious metals—they are mainly industrial metals.

When China, the world’s largest industrial producer, shows stronger economic activity, it usually means demand for these metals is rising.

We will dive into a Silver two-timeframe intraday analysis to prepare for the heavy action that's unfolding in front of our eyes – Is this a breakout ?

Let's get right into it.

Read More:

• Copper near record highs. Market fears supply constraints and bets on strong demand
• Markets Weekly Outlook - Is the 'Risk-On' Rally sustainable with rates and energy elevated?
• Tech does not wait on CPI and Geopolitics – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 CPI Levels

After forming a bullish weekly divergence, the action is now turning much more bullish and this translated into a break of the prior $83 to $84.50 resistance, now acting as key momentum pivot.

Evolving into a steep bull channel, the move should trigger high volatility for coming days.

Without many resistance levels until there, bulls should remain in control until $90, level to be closely monitored.

Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:

Resistance Levels:

• March range Resistance $90 to $92
• March High Resistance $95 to $97
• Key psychological resistance $100 to $104
• All-Time Highs $121

Support Levels:

• Major Resistance now Pivot $83 to $84.50
• Pivot highs $80 - $81.50
• Pivot lows $74.50 - $75
• $61.10 War Lows

Looking at the 1H Candle points to clearer action ahead, with the morning extension now pointing to a slowing in the buying due to the overbought RSI.

The fact that the action did not pullback however translates in the fact that buyers are not giving up their freshly gained advantage.

Check out reactions to the channel top however (~$86.50).

For late bulls, watch out for overbought conditions – to do so, either wait for a continued explosion (buy stop above $87) or pullback to $81.50 - $82.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US Stock Benchmarks somewhat consolidate as uncertainty withstands to start the week, preparing for tomorrow's CPI report
• Nasdaq and S&P 500 continue to grind higher, supported by option-positioning and a very resilient semiconductor sector
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

US stock indexes are starting to settle as uncertainty returns at the beginning of the week.

After last week’s big, news-driven moves, traders are stepping back and getting ready for tomorrow’s essential CPI report; A kind of cautious trading is common before major economic data, especially since central banks are watching closely for signs of how the Middle East conflict might be affecting consumer prices.

Adding to this economic uncertainty, both the US and Iran turned down each other’s diplomatic proposals over the weekend.

Without a ceasefire agreement, WTI Crude Oil prices are steadily rising right at the edge of $100 – As energy costs keep climbing, the risk of persistent, war-related inflation remains the main obstacle to hopes for interest rate cuts but this seemingly isn't much of a concern for Stock Markets these days!

Even with these ongoing geopolitical issues, the broader stock market is still resilient, showing that participants appear to be looking beyond the current Middle East situation and are focusing their optimism on the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in China later this week.

With this sense of optimism about upcoming global events, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 keep moving higher.

Strong options activity and a bullying semiconductor sector are helping to support these gains, even as worries about the bigger economic picture remain.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones is taking a more cautious approach, but strong interest in tech stocks is keeping the overall market afloat, despite ongoing uncertainty.

Let's prepare for tomorrow's quintessential US CPI report by diving into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Asia open: US futures dipped as US-Iran peace deal hopes dimmed
• Markets Weekly Outlook - Is the 'Risk-On' Rally sustainable with rates and energy elevated?
• Copper near record highs. Market fears supply constraints and bets on strong demand

The split continues further with Semiconductors really demarcates itself from the past week's tech-wide rally, while the rest lag behind, leaving the DJIA underperforming the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

The Dow Jones is consolidating further between 49,400 to 49,700 as participants keep placing more attention to the higher-volatility Nasdaq and S&P 500.

The RSI momentum is somewhat turning lower and rejecting the 2H 50-MA (49,676), pointing to lower action in the upcoming action.

Watch for 49,000 to the downside, and 50,000 for the upside.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• 2H 50-MA (49,676)
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs
• ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500
• All-Time Highs 50,544

Support Levels

• April 14 Gap Fill Pivot 49,500
• Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)
• Momentum Support 48,500
• Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)
• Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600

Nasdaq continues its rocket path towards 29,500, up 11.78% since its prior all-time high.

With the ongoing extension, overbought RSI conditions are not bringing back any sign of rejection. Looking at the tight bull channel (multiple green candles overlapping each other, I invite you to discover this powerful pattern) seen on the Daily chart, no element is poiting to a slowdown of the consistent price discovery.

Except for any fundamental change, nothing can stop this train!

To the upside, look at 30,000 on the long-term – To the downside, below 29,000 traders can expect accelerated downside.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 29,500 potential resistance
• Next level 29,750

Support Levels

• 29,250 consolidation and momentum pivot
• 28,500 Minor support
• 28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)
• 27,500 micro-support
• Momentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)
• Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300

The S&P 500 is still pulling higher within its upward channel, testing its upper bound.

By failing to reject it, odds for an upside breakout are increasing, but this will be heavily contingent on tomorrow's CPI release.

Look at reactions to the 7,450 potential resistance, with the next stop at 7,500.

For the downside, sellers will want to see a clear rejection and sale below 7,400.

• On the bigger picture, breaking 7,250 points to a larger retracement (to previous all-time highs?)

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 7,430 - 7,450 Channel extension potential resistance
• Next stop 7,500

Support Levels

• 7,320 Past week retracement
• Pivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260
• Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020
• Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US futures edged lower in the early Asian session: Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace response, dampening hopes for a formal US-Iran agreement and keeping geopolitical risk premiums elevated.
• Stronger-than-expected US April jobs data: Reinforced the “higher for longer” interest rate narrative, reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 and supporting elevated Treasury yields.
• The AI-driven equity rally remains intact globally: Supported by semiconductor momentum, expanding hyperscaler AI capex, and new industrial AI initiatives involving Apple, Intel, and Jeff Bezos.
• Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100’s bullish impulsive up move overstretched, at risk of minor corrective decline below 29,505/615 key short-term resistance. Intermediate supports at 28,835 and 28,460/280.

• Trump rejects Iran peace response: U.S. President Donald Trump called Iran's response to the US peace proposal 'unacceptable' over the weekend. This diplomatic snag casts a shadow over the immediate prospects of a formalized treaty, keeping a floor under geopolitical risk premiums even as active military engagements pause.
• US jobs report defies expectations: A better-than-expected April employment report (actual: 115K vs consensus: 62K) has led analysts to conclude that the Federal Reserve may forgo any interest rate cuts in 2026, as robust hiring and sticky inflation keep policy restrictive.
• US-Iran ceasefire holds after test: Reuters confirmed that while the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire late last week in the most serious test of their ceasefire, both sides indicated they did not want to escalate, and the situation has returned to normal.
• Apple & Intel's chip pact: The AI hardware supercycle continues to dominate, with reports emerging over the weekend that Apple has reached a preliminary deal with Intel to produce chips.
• Yuan hits 3-year highs ahead of summit: China's yuan strengthened to a three-year high against the US dollar, setting the stage for the highly anticipated Beijing summit between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14-15.
• Bezos targets industrial AI: Reuters Breakingviews highlighted that Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is raising $10 billion to help build AI models that understand the physics of production, signaling the next wave of AI capital expenditure.

• The "No Rate Cuts" reality: The combination of the hot April jobs report and persistent inflation has cemented the "higher for longer" narrative. Markets are actively pricing out the likelihood of any Federal Reserve easing for the remainder of 2026.
• Complex geopolitics (ceasefire holds, diplomacy stalls): Equity investors are navigating a nuanced Middle East landscape. While the physical ceasefire holding prevents a devastating oil spike above $100/bbl, Trump's "unacceptable" designation of Iran's terms means energy and defense sectors will retain a persistent risk bid.
• AI Capex expanding beyond Silicon Valley: The AI boom is broadening. With Morgan Stanley projecting top-tier hyperscaler AI capex to top $1.1 trillion next year, investments are now flowing into industrial and physical-world AI applications.

Equities: Wall Street advanced robustly on Friday, with the S&P 500 recording weekly gains. Semiconductor giants like AMD and Micron led the charge higher as the AI trade remains the dominant market force. Today’s early Asian session (Monday), S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures dipped 0.2% after Trump rejected Iran’s peace deal proposal.

Fixed Income: The strong jobs report keeps intense pressure on the bond market. The US long bond yield (30-year) remains supported at 4.90% (50-day moving average), implying risk of deeply anchored inflation expectations.

FX: The Japanese Yen remains highly volatile following Japan's suspected $67 billion intervention over the past two weeks. The Yuan is serving as a regional anchor at three-year highs.

Commodities: Gold rally remained subdued below its 50-day moving average, acting as a key intermediate resistance at around $4,775/oz, while China's PBOC loaded up on bullion for an 18th straight month offers support. Crude oil is fluctuating near the $100 level.

• Stock markets: Asian tech giants continue to provide the bull run's center of gravity. South Korea's KOSPI recently crossed the historic 7,000 mark as Samsung's market cap surpassed $1 trillion, driven by surging memory chip demand. Mixed performances; KOSPI (+4%), and Nikkei 225 (+0.5%), while intraday losses were seen in Hang Seng Index (-0.9%) and ASX 200 (-0.8%) at this time writing.
• Currencies: The PBOC's management of the Yuan is keeping regional FX relatively stable ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, though the Yen's wild swings (recently touching 155/$) are keeping carry-trade investors on edge.
• Economic outlook: The region is absorbing the dual impacts of an AI-driven export boom (massively benefiting Taiwan and South Korea) while navigating the structural headwinds of expensive energy imports.

1. China Inflation Rate & PPI (Apr) - 9:30 am SGT (consensus: 0.8% y/y-Inflation & 1.5% y/y-PPI) Impact: USD/CNH, Hang Seng, China A50, AUD/USD
2. US Existing Home Sales (Apr) - 10:00 pm SGT (consensus: 4.05M, Mar:3.98M) Impact: US stock indices, USD
3. Geopolitical updates on the US-Iran peace proposal Impact: All asset classes

The price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) had undergone a steep bullish impulsive up move sequence since 30 April 2026, and two key technical elements suggest that it now faces an imminent risk of a minor corrective pull-back.

Last Friday’s rally on 8 May has led the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index to hover right below the upper boundary of its medium-term ascending channel in place since the 30 March 2026 low. Secondly, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has started to stage a downward reversal after it surged close to an extreme overbought level of 85 (see Fig. 1).

Watch the 29,505/615 key short-term pivotal resistance. A break below 28,835 (downside trigger) may expose the next intermediate support at 28,460/280 (also the lower boundary of the ascending channel from 30 March 2026 low).

On the flip side, a clearance and an hourly close above 29,615 invalidates the minor bearish scenario to see the continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 29,893/953 and 30,410/417.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
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• Equities maintain a "risk-on" rally, defying the market disconnect from elevated oil prices and rising interest rate expectations.
• The US market faces a pivotal week with the final Powell-led CPI report expected on Tuesday, ahead of the Fed Chair handover to Kevin Warsh on May 15.
• Geopolitical tensions remain high following US/Iran strikes, though a 3-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire was announced.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a bearish technical breakdown, with a cooler CPI likely to lead to a move toward the 96.901 support level.

Read More: Mixed feelings after the April Non-Farm Payrolls beat and Consumer Sentiment miss – Market Check

Week in Review: Equities Defy Gravity as Oil and Rates Realign

The start of May has left market participants with more questions than answers. In a striking display of resilience or perhaps denial, US stock markets have surged to fresh highs, seemingly shrugging off the geopolitical tensions that briefly rattled indices mid-war.

However, this "risk-on" euphoria sits in uncomfortable contrast with the reality of the energy market. Oil prices have refused to retreat to pre-conflict levels, and interest rate expectations are being recalibrated higher across the board.

The disconnect is clear: can equities continue to climb while the cost of capital and energy remain elevated?

Markets continue to hang on every word of US President Donald Trump and the ongoing situation in the Middle East. Markets are rightly on edge heading into the weekend given the tit-for-tat strikes between Iran and the US on Thursday and Friday, May 7 and 8 respectively. Any significant developments over the weekend could drive early week volatility and price action.

Late on Friday, President Trump announced a 3 day ceasefire between Russia-Ukraine for the 9th, 10th and 11th of May.

As we look toward the week starting May 10, the focus remains on geopolitical nut markets, which are also debating whether central banks will follow the market’s hawkish lead or if a reality check is overdue.

This makes for interesting viewing and will likely lead to significant market movement.

US: The Fed’s Final Changing of the Guard

The coming week is a momentous one for the Federal Reserve. Not only do we face critical data points, but we also mark a transition in leadership. Jerome Powell is set to conclude his tenure as Fed Chair, with Kevin Warsh scheduled to take the reins on Friday, May 15.

On the data front, Tuesday’s Inflation report is the headliner. We are bracing for a second consecutive 0.9% MoM print at the headline level, largely fueled by the surge in gasoline and diesel prices. While the core reading is expected at a more modest 0.3%, the annual rate could push up to 2.7%. The Fed has recently made a concerted effort to talk up rate expectations, ditching their previous easing bias as the US economy continues to hold up better than its peers. However, with labor supply growth effectively stalled due to collapsing net migration (projected at near zero this year), the "hot" jobs numbers we’ve seen may be less a sign of strength and more a symptom of a tightening supply constraint.

UK & Europe: A Strange Case of Mispricing

Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) find themselves in different boats, though markets are currently pricing them as if they are in the same storm.

Markets are pricing in a significantly more hawkish path for the UK than the Eurozone—a move that looks overdone. While the UK is energy-dependent, this is not a repeat of the 2022 gas crisis; natural gas prices remain relatively contained compared to the spike in oil. We believe the ECB is actually more likely to deliver on its hawkish rhetoric in June, whereas the BoE may view "not cutting" as enough tightening for now. Watch the Euro and Sterling closely as this pricing discrepancy begins to unwind.

Asia: Inflation Fallout and Trade Tensions

In Asia, the focus is squarely on the fallout from the Middle East through the lens of inflation.

• China: We are looking for trade data on Saturday and inflation data on Monday. Exports are expected to grow by roughly 6.5%, but the real story lies in the PPI, which is accelerating. Markets will be hyper-sensitive to how China handles the impact of higher energy costs and the lingering effects of the "Liberation Day" tariffs.

India: Expect a modest rise in inflation. While gasoline prices remain capped by the government, the second-round effects of oil prices are starting to bleed into food costs, which could test the Reserve Bank of India’s patience.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) finds itself in a precarious position as we head into a pivotal week. Between the transition in Fed leadership and a looming inflation print, the technicals are flashing signs of exhaustion, suggesting the "Dollar King" crown might be slipping.

On the daily timeframe, the indexes break below its ascending channel, signaling a shift in momentum remains intact.

We are currently seeing the DXY trade below key Moving Averages:

The 50-day MA (Yellow) at 98.459 and the 200-day MA (Purple) at 98.538 have converged, effectively acting as a "ceiling" for recent price action.

The fact that price is struggling to reclaim these MAs suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the downside in the near term.

Support Watch: The immediate floor sits at 97.702. A daily close below this level would confirm the Double Top and likely open the trapdoor for a deeper correction toward the 96.901 handle.

Scenarios for the Week Ahead

Given the fundamental backdrop of the final Powell-led CPI print and the handover to Kevin Warsh, I see two primary technical paths:

Scenario 1: The Bearish Confirmation (High Probability)

If Tuesday’s US CPI data comes in cooler than expected—or even just meets estimates—the DXY is likely to break the 97.702 support. This would confirm the Daily Double Top and trigger a move toward 96.901. In this scenario, the convergence of the 50 and 200 SMAs on the daily will remain the ultimate barrier, cementing a medium-term bearish outlook.

Scenario 2: The "Sticky Inflation" Spike (Low Probability)

Should we get a significant beat in inflation (above the 0.9% MoM forecast), we could see a knee-jerk spike in the Dollar. The bulls would need to reclaim and hold above 98.729 on a daily closing basis to invalidate the bearish setup. However, even with a spike, the psychological resistance at 100.00 remains a massive hurdle that would likely attract heavy selling.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, May 8, 2026

The market is currently betting on a "perfect landing" where growth stays firm despite rising rates. However, with the energy channel remaining hot and central banks diverging, the margin for error is becoming razor-thin. Stay disciplined and watch those support levels.

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Copper futures rose above USD 6.29 per pound, nearing record highs, supported by expectations of long-term demand from artificial intelligence, power grids, clean energy and electrification.
• Supply concerns are increasing due to disruptions in sulfuric acid availability, China’s export ban and weaker copper production in Chile, which fell by around 6% year on year in Q1 2026.
• The Democratic Republic of Congo could strengthen its role in the global copper market through a major China-backed mining project that may produce 200,000–500,000 tonnes of copper per year.

Copper futures prices rose above USD 6.29 per pound, approaching the record levels seen at the end of January. The increase is driven by a combination of two factors: expectations of long-term demand growth and mounting concerns about disruptions in production and supply. Copper, as a metal essential to energy, industry, infrastructure and new technologies, remains one of the most important commodities in the global economic transformation.

Demand supported by Artificial Intelligence, energy and industrial transformation

Investors assume that demand for copper will continue to grow for many years. Key sources of demand are expected to include investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, modernization of power grids and the development of clean energy. The metal is essential in cables, installations, data centers, transmission systems, electric vehicles and many technologies linked to the electrification of the economy.

Lower energy prices have provided additional support for the market, easing concerns about the condition of the global economy and demand for industrial metals. As a result, copper has gained importance as a commodity that connects investors’ short-term expectations with long-term technological and infrastructure trends.

Sulfuric acid problems increase supply-side risk

The rise in copper prices is being driven not only by strong demand prospects, but also by concerns over the availability of raw materials needed for its processing. Particular market attention is focused on sulfuric acid, which is used in the copper refining process. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supplies of this component, while China has introduced an export ban from May until at least December.

Beijing’s decision could reduce the global seaborne sulfuric acid market by around 3 million tonnes. Chile, Indonesia and India are the most exposed to the effects of these restrictions. The significance of the problem is highlighted by the situation in Chile, where copper production fell by around 6% year on year in the first quarter of 2026. Restrictions on access to sulfuric acid could therefore further hamper efforts to increase refined copper supply at a time when the market expects rising demand.

Congo could strengthen its position in the global copper market

Against the backdrop of growing supply tensions, the Democratic Republic of Congo is gaining increasing importance. Chinese state-owned company China Railway Group Ltd., known as CREC, plans to develop one of the potentially largest copper projects in the world there. Company representatives met with Congo’s Minister of Mines, Louis Watum, to discuss the investment, which is being carried out in cooperation with a CREC subsidiary and Congolese state-owned diamond company MIBA.

The planned mine would be located in Kasai-Oriental province, outside the traditional copper-mining region of Katanga. Its target output could range from 200,000 to 500,000 tonnes of copper per year. This scale would make the project one of the more significant mining ventures in the global copper market.

Chinese investment has strategic significance

The project in Congo has not only economic but also geopolitical significance. President Félix Tshisekedi is expected to support the rapid launch of the investment, which could further strengthen the country’s position as the world’s second-largest copper supplier after Chile. Copper production in Congo has more than tripled over the past decade, and Chinese companies currently account for the majority of the country’s output.

The development of a new mine would demonstrate the further strengthening of China’s influence in Africa’s raw materials sector. At the same time, the United States is trying to increase its presence in Congolese mining, indicating that access to copper is becoming an increasingly important element of global economic competition. This commodity is crucial for energy, electromobility, industry and infrastructure, which is why control over its sources is gaining strategic importance.

Copper price outlook remains positive

The current situation in the copper market combines strong demand fundamentals with growing supply-side uncertainty. On the one hand, the development of artificial intelligence, power grids, electromobility and clean energy could support demand for the metal for many years. On the other hand, disruptions in sulfuric acid supplies, falling production in Chile and competition for new sources of raw material are increasing the risk of supply constraints.

Under these conditions, upward pressure on copper prices may persist. The planned investment in the Democratic Republic of Congo shows that the largest economies and commodity companies are preparing for a long-term increase in the importance of this metal. Copper remains one of the key raw materials of the future, and its market is increasingly reflecting both the pace of technological transformation and geopolitical competition for access to strategic resources.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Silver and Gold are hesitant, but forming a basis for a longer-term restart of their bull-trends
• After failing to extend lower, sellers are now exhausting their capacities, but breakouts will be required
• Intraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD and XAU/USD

Metals have been trading in confusion since the beginning of the war, with particular inflation and price action dynamics adding to the doubts.

In recent trading, the Oil to Gold inverted relationship has somewhat abated and this forms the path to newer narratives for the precious commodities Market.

While the price action has remained mostly sideways, a few metals have begun to reject their selling attempts, providing proof that the general bear trend is exhausting.

The best example is seen in Copper, breaking its War highs throughout this week (Check out our latest analysis), but also Silver, bouncing back close to 10% off of its 2026 year-beginning prices.

Weekly momentum are showing some strong signs, as can be seen with the Gold weekly chart.

The RSI has completely stopped its downward trajectory, supported by the huge weekly hammer, and is now looking to confirm its rise – It wouldn't be surprising to see strong action in the asset class in coming weeks.

Let's explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch for breakouts.

Read More:

• Tech continues to pull Stock Markets higher, S&P 500 at 7,400 – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday Levels
• Mixed feelings after the April Non-Farm Payrolls beat and Consumer Sentiment miss – Market Check
• Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 bulls still in control above 28,280 key support amid US-Iran tensions

Gold has officially broken out of its descending channel formed since April 17.

While the picture is still quite rangy ($4,500 to $4,900), the recent breakout attempt pulled back to the 4H 200-period MA ($4,663) before bouncing higher, helping for chances of a break-retest pattern at the mid-range pivot.

To confirm on the intraday, look for a break above $4,760; the action gets especially more bullish above $4,900.

Intraday Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• $4,850 to $4,900 Major Resistance (bullish above)
• $5,100 Pivotal Resistance
• $5,400 mini-resistance

Support Levels:

• 4H 200-period MA ($4,663)
• December 2025 Support $4,500 to $4,550 (bearish below)
• Pivotal Support $4,325 – $4,400
• Main Channel Lows Support $4,100
• Next Support $3,880 to $4,000

Silver might have gotten slightly ahead of itself, pushing way above its key moving averages, towards $82 highs before forming a short-term double top.

In the event of a retracement from here, bulls will want to see a stall around the $77 to $78 pivot in order to form better chances of a push to new highs.

Breaking $84 puts the odds for a longer run bull trend back in shape.

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• Pivot highs $80 - $81.50
• $84 Major level
• Key Range Resistance $90 to $92
• $96.47 March highs (higher odds of All-time highs if break above)
• Current Record $121.67

Support Levels:

• Pivot lows $77 - $78
• Micro support $74 - $76
• $70 - $71.50 April Support (Bearish below)
• December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66
• $61.10 Past Session lows
• $50 to $55 October Resistance now Major Support
• Silver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81

Safe Trades and a blessed weekend!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US Stock Benchmarks quickly resumed their road to new highs after yesterday's temporary break
• Nasdaq and S&P 500 maintain their paths to price discovery, but the Dow continues to reflect heavier doubts
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

US stock indexes are bouncing back to new record highs in this morning session, quickly recovering from yesterday’s brief, fear-driven momentum break.

The pullback occurred as traders reduced risk following reports of sporadic military clashes in southern Iran, while the market awaited Tehran’s response to a US peace deal.

Today, though, Wall Street is ignoring the geopolitical headlines.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are still moving higher, driven mostly by the technology sector.

Most of the biggest tech companies are dancing higher, with the exception of Microsoft; semiconductor stocks are especially strong. The AI-trade just continues to generate traction and is pushing the Nasdaq up by another 1.50% today.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones is showing more hesitation from Investors. Staying flat most of the morning, the Index couldn't withstand its few rebound attempts with most of the money is still going into faster-growing AI stocks.

Markets did receive further economic clues: today’s Non-Farm Payrolls report was stronger than expected, which the market welcomed as a sign of US economic resilience despite recent Middle East tensions.

However, some analysts are worried about the gap between the steady unemployment rate and the strong job numbers – Dangerous signs when many are still looking to see the impact of the change in the Bureau of Labor Statistics that happened at the end of 2025.

At the same time, the University of Michigan’s early consumer sentiment index stayed weak and continued to fall – Yet, this bleak consumer data is doing absolutely nothing to prevent equities from printing fresh all-time highs.

A key reminder that Stock Markets and the economy are two very different things

To get ready for a potentially volatile weekend, dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Mixed feelings after the April Non-Farm Payrolls beat and Consumer Sentiment miss – Market Check
• Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 bulls still in control above 28,280 key support amid US-Iran tensions
• Chart alert: GBP/USD potential bullish reversal above 20-day moving average

The split is quite evident when looking at the left side of the Market heatmap, representing the now huge Tech sectors and the right (with the more traditional sectors) bleeding.

The Dow Jones is still looking for direction in its ongoing consolidation period.

Remaining closer to its recent highs despite a higher double top, odds for a breakout could increase if the action remains between 49,500 and 50,000.

Breaking 49,500 however may see bearish acceleration, hence the risk is quite binary for the Index.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• 49,878 morning highs
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs
• ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500
• All-Time Highs 50,544

Support Levels

• April 14 Gap Fill Pivot 49,500
• Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)
• Momentum Support 48,500
• Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)
• Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600

Nasdaq is onto a rocketship, completely bullying through previous record highs and currently pushing beyond 29,000.

Finding tops in such price action is a daunting, costly task, but some small profit taking may occur around 29,250 – For now, bulls remain firmly in control.

Don't forget to check out our in-depth analysis of the index.

Except for any fundamental change, nothing can stop this train!

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 29,250 potential resistance
• Next level 29,750

Support Levels

• 28,500 short-term pivot (ST bearish below)
• 28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)
• 27,500 micro-support
• Momentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)
• Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750
• Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300

The S&P 500 is now retesting its 7,400 record with the ongoing push from Tech stocks helping the index.

Some signs of exhaustions could be appearing however with a diverging RSI.

For now, this indicates higher chances of a slowdown in the rally rather than a full-on correction – Next week will be crucial

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 7,390 - 7,400 Channel extension resistance (morning highs)
• 7,415 161.% Fib
• Next stop 7,480

Support Levels

• Momentum Pivot 7,250 to 7,260
• Channel lows 7,230 (bearish below)
• 7,100 psychological level
• Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020
• Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets have shown their fair acts of stoicism in recent days, not reacting the slightest to bad and relatively hawkish news.

Yesterday, Iran reported US strikes on its capital and a few key energy-producing regions (including Bandar Abbas and Sirik – close to Hormuz), which came as a direct response to the Iranian firing on Gulf countries at the beginning of the week.

Participants believe this will not escalate into something worse; The cold-truce remains, albeit being quite fragile.

To enlighten the mood however, Non-Farm Payrolls offered a very decent beat (+115K vs 62K exp) in this morning's release, allowing Investor mood to remain calm ahead of the weekend action.

The Unemployment Rate shows unchanged while the unrounded figures show a slight increase – But nothing too alarming.

Canada is still showing an unstable employment picture with ups and downs virtually every month – The Canadian economy is cyclical and amid extreme doubts all around the globe, these labor numbers can only depict this truth.

The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment also just released and came with a miss, with many consumers still signalling fears for higher inflation (logical with prices at the pump at the highest since 2022).

You can access the full report right here.

We will provide a quick outlook on the Market before diving into WTI (US) Oil Charts to get ready for what could be another volatile weekend.

Discover:

• Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 bulls still in control above 28,280 key support amid US-Iran tensions
• Chart alert: GBP/USD potential bullish reversal above 20-day moving average
• Asia open: Global markets jolted by US-Iran ceasefire violation, and traders brace for NFP

Except for the Tech-heavy index quickly restarting its path higher after a quick stopover, Energy and more traditional equities are scratching their heads in search for a concrete direction.

True directional moves may only be found next week, with traders preparing for the Trump-Xi meeting in China (May 14).

Silver and Copper are leading a path higher in the entire asset class, with Gold starting to pick up some momentum.

Oil is unable to form a concrete breakout, rejecting its up and down spikes at every attempt.

As traders await for further news, Crude is stabilizing between $93 and $98, the two boundaries to keep in check for any clear break (watch for a 4H close above or below for higher breakout odds).

Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news throughout the weekend.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Nasdaq 100 remains in a bullish structure despite short-term volatility driven by US–Iran geopolitical tensions and profit-taking, with price action stabilising above key support at 28,280.
• Market sentiment was briefly pressured by conflict-related headlines, but losses were largely recovered as ceasefire stability expectations improved and risk appetite returned.
• Market breadth is healthy but not euphoric, with broad participation across components and technical indicators supporting near-term upside continuation.

This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Nasdaq 100: AI bubble fears overblown, bullish trend intact above 26,760 key intraday support”, published on 29 April 2026.

The US stock market saw profit-taking on Thursday, 7 May 2026, as traders grew increasingly concerned over the fragility of the month-long US-Iran ceasefire after both sides exchanged fire.

Market sentiment was further unsettled by uncertainty surrounding Washington’s latest proposal to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has yet to respond to.

The leading Nasdaq 100 dropped by 1.3% intraday from its all-time intraday high of 28,825, but trimmed its losses to end Thursday’s US session with a marginal loss of only 0.1% and underperformed against other US stock indices; S&P 500 (-0.4%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.6%), and small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.6%).

In today's (Friday, 8 May 2026), the Nasdaq 100 E-min futures recovered by 0.5% at this time of writing and almost recovered Thursday’s US session losses, reinforced by US President Trump's remarks that stated the ceasefire agreement “remains intact”.

Aside from this piece of “Trump’s positive news flow”, several technical elements are also advocating for another potential round of fresh short-term bullish impulsive up move sequence for the Nasdaq 100.

Let’s decipher them.

Even though in the past four weeks, the performance of the Nasdaq 100 has been primarily driven by several AI-related semiconductors and chip stocks such as Intel (+111%), SanDisk (+87%), and Advanced Micro Devices (+87%), the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above their respective 20-day and 50-day moving averages is steady at 61% and 59%, not yet at euphoric levels of 80%-90%.

In addition, the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above the key 200-day moving averages has increased steadily from 47% on 15 April 2026 to 57% as of Thursday, 7 May 2026 (below euphoric levels of 80%-90%), which indicates that a broader set of Nasdaq 100 is taking part in this ongoing rally since the end of March 2026 (see Fig. 1).

Let's now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures).

Trend bias: Bullish above 28,280 short-term pivotal support within an uptrend phase (see Fig. 2).

Resistances: 28,860/890, 29,150, and 29,505/615

Next supports: 27,850, 27,540, and 27,255

• Price actions continue to oscillate within a medium-term ascending channel from the 31 March 2026 low.
• Current price actions of the Nasdaq 100 CFD index are trading at the upper half of the ascending channel, with the upper boundary of the channel coming in at around 29,505.
• The hourly MACD trend indicator has just flashed out a bullish crossover condition above its centreline.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
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• GBP/USD remains supported despite renewed US-Iran tensions, with traders now closely focused on upcoming US labour market data and University of Michigan consumer sentiment figures that could drive near-term volatility in the pair.
• Intermarket dynamics favour further upside for sterling, as the UK-US implied interest rate spread has steepened significantly, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England may stay relatively more hawkish than the Federal Reserve.
• Technical indicators suggest a potential bullish reversal is underway, with GBP/USD rebounding from its ascending channel support, holding above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, while momentum indicators point to strengthening upside momentum above the 1.3530 support zone.

After the sterling hit a 2-month high of 1.3658 on 1 May 2026 against the US dollar, the GBP/USD has traded sideways, and on Thursday, 7 May 2026, it declined by 0.2% to print an intraday low of 1.1723 on the backdrop of an uptick in US-Iran tension after both sides exchanged fire.

In addition to the latest developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict, where markets are awaiting Iran’s response to Washington’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, traders will also be closely watching several key US economic releases today that may influence the short-term direction of GBP/USD.

These include the April non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data at 8:30 pm SGT, followed by the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment report for May at 10:00 pm SGT.

Interestingly, intermarket and technical factors are now supporting a potential bullish reversal in the GBP/USD at this juncture.

Let’s unpack in greater detail.

Interest rate futures markets indicate that the Bank of England (BoE) will likely hike in July after being on hold at 3.75% since December 2025.

The current Eurozone/US implied interest rate policy curve spread for the period from June 2026 to September 2026 has steepened significantly.

In addition, the curve has also shifted upwards, with the current September 2026 reading standing at 0.66% compared to 0.16% three months ago (see Fig. 1).

These observations suggest that the BoE is likely to be less dovish or more hawkish than the Fed, which in turn could provide support for a potentially firmer GBP/USD.

The monthly implied future monetary policy interest rate curves for the UK and the US are calculated using short-term interest rate futures that are highly sensitive to the expectations on these countries’ central banks' respective monetary policies.

Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the GBP/USD from a technical analysis perspective.

Trend bias: Bullish above 1.3530 short-term pivotal support within an uptrend phase (see Fig. 2).

Resistances: 1.3590, 1.3640/3665 (upside trigger), and 1.3730

Next supports: 1.3490 and 1.3450

• Price actions have managed to stage a rebound after a retest on the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from the 6 April 2026 low.
• Price actions continue to trade above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which support an ongoing medium-term uptrend phase.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has just exited from its oversold region (below the 30 level) in today’s Asian session (Friday, 8 May 2026).

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
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• Markets rattled by renewed US–Iran tensions: A reported ceasefire violation and exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz abruptly reversed prior peace optimism, reigniting geopolitical risk premiums and driving oil prices back above key $95–$100 levels.
• NFP now collides with stagflation fears: Traders are closely watching the US non-farm payrolls report as strong jobs data combined with surging oil prices could reinforce stagflation concerns and keep the Fed on hold throughout 2026.
• Risk assets turned cautious while safe havens gained: Global equities retreated from record highs, Asian markets reversed lower, and risk-sensitive currencies weakened, while the US dollar held firm on safe-haven demand and gold struggled below key short-term technical resistance near $4,775.
• Chart of the day: Nikkei 225 at risk of a minor corrective decline within the medium-term uptrend phase, below 62,795 key short-term resistance.

• US-Iran ceasefire violated: Reuters reports a severe geopolitical escalation as Tehran accuses the US of violating the ceasefire, resulting in a direct exchange of fire involving US naval destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz. This shatters yesterday's peace optimism and triggered profit-taking in the US stock market on Thursday, 7 May.
• All eyes on US non-farm payrolls (NFP): Amidst the geopolitical turmoil, traders are bracing for today's critical US NFP report and unemployment rate data to determine the Federal Reserve's next policy move in a highly volatile environment. Based on the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, interest rate futures traders are still pricing in high odds that the Fed will maintain the Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% throughout 2026.
• Oil prices violently reversed higher: Following the reports of renewed military engagement and attacks on shipping infrastructure, Brent crude oil immediately reversed up and traded back above the $100/bbl threshold, holding at the 50-day moving average that is acting as a key intermediate support at around $99.80/bbl.
• Equities retreat from record highs: S&P 500 (-0.4%), Nasdaq 100 (-0.1%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.6%), and Russell 2000 (-0.6%). However, a minimal sell-off was observed in the US technology sector, with positive gains reported in mega-caps Nvidia (+1.8%) and Microsoft (+1.7%).

• Geopolitical whiplash: Markets have violently transitioned from a "Geopolitical Dividend" (pricing in peace and normalized trade) back to a maximum "Risk Premium" environment within 24 hours.
• The NFP vs. war tug-of-war: Today's US jobs report is usually the undisputed market driver, but it now competes with live war headlines. A hot NFP print combined with surging oil could create a nightmare scenario for bond markets by reigniting stagflation fears.
• Energy inflation resurrected: The potential breakdown of the ceasefire instantly places long-term global yield curves back under pressure. Central banks cannot easily ignore the inflationary impacts of $100+ crude oil, sustained by active conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical energy transit chokepoint. Interest rate futures markets indicate the ECB and BOJ will likely hike next month, and the BoE and RBNZ in July.

• Equities: S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 E-mini futures have managed to recover slightly in today’s early Asian session; +0.2% and +0.3% respectively at this time of writing, as US President Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire remains intact after both sides exchanged fire yesterday.
• Fixed income: US Treasury yields are experiencing extreme volatility. Initial flight-to-safety flows are pushing yields down, but the spectre of surging oil prices threatens to drag long-end yields back up ahead of the NFP release.
• FX: The US Dollar (DXY) spiked on safe-haven flows and held at 97.95 key near-term support that has been in place since 14 April 2026. Risk-sensitive currencies such as AUD and NZD retreated by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.
• Commodities: WTI and Brent crude rebounded, violently retaking the $95/bbl and $100/bbl handle, respectively. Spot Gold’s rally struggled to break above the $4,775/oz level (also close to the 50-day moving average, where it traded below it since 18 March 2026).

• Stock markets: The anticipated Friday "catch-up rally" in Asian tech was completely derailed. The KOSPI and Nikkei 225 reversed early gains and turned heavily negative with intraday losses of around 1% each as profit-taking activities emerged ahead of the weekend.
• Currencies: The Australian Dollar (AUD) lost its RBA-driven premium due to waning intraday risk-on appetite, but it remains above its 20-day moving average, which is acting as a key intermediate support at around 0.7180/7160 against the USD.
• Economic outlook: Major Asian energy importers (such as Japan, South Korea, and India) may face a dual shock today: evaporating global risk appetite and increasing hawkish monetary policy guidance from developed central bank officials such as the ECB and BoE.

1. Germany Balance of Trade – 2.00 pm SGT Impact: EUR crosses, DAX
2. US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – 8.30 pm SGT: (consensus: 62K, Mar: 178K) Impact: All asset classes
3. US Unemployment Rate – 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 4.3%, Mar: 4.3%) Impact: All asset classes
4. US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) – 10.00 pm SGT (consensus: 49.5, Apr: 49.8) Impact: US stock indices, USD
5. Updates US-Iran conflict – awaiting Iran’s response on US’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Impact: All asset classes

After a steep rally from Monday, 4 May 2026, the Japan CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) may stage a potential minor mean reversion decline towards the lower boundary of the ascending channel in place since the 30 March 2026 low.

The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bearish breakdown below its ascending support after it flashed out a prior bearish divergence condition at its overbought region on Thursday, 7 May 2026 (see Fig. 1).

Watch the 62,795 key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential minor corrective decline towards the 61,180/60,795 immediate support, and breaking below it exposes 59,970 next (also close to the rising 20-day moving average).

On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 62,795 invalidates the bearish scenario for a continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 64,145 and 65,010/65,040.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for May 7

Markets jumped to new highs early this morning as investors felt hopeful about diplomatic progress. But by midday, those gains disappeared. It became clear that risk assets had risen too quickly, and overall sentiment turned negative.

Tensions in the Gulf quickly returned, pulling markets back down. Optimism faded after reports that Iran had fired missiles at US Navy destroyers, apparently in response to US strikes on Iranian tankers. Iranian state TV also reported anti-aircraft activity and explosions over Tehran, adding more uncertainty to the trading floor.

Confusion about the blockade added to the day’s volatility. A US official told Al Jazeera that reports about the US military preparing to restart “Operation Freedom,” the mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, were completely false. These conflicting stories made WTI crude oil prices swing wildly, eventually pulling them back down toward $95.

Stocks could not hold up after the reversal. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached impressive new intraday highs at 7,385 and 28,850 but lost momentum and ended the day lower.

The Dow Jones also dropped more than 300 points, falling below the 50,000 mark by the close.

With the peace rally over and geopolitical tensions rising again, tomorrow’s important Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report could be a major turning point for Wall Street as investors look for direction.

Read More:

• Have Stock Markets met their top? – Pre-FOMC Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Levels
• Crude Oil on path to $90 as the peace trade continues – WTI Technical analysis
• Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) rally faces roadblock at 20-day and 50-day moving averages

Global assets took a huge turn around the middle of the session with WTI Crude largely reversing from its huge drop to $90 – Spot the turn around 10:30.

FX is back into a large confusion after today's US Dollar reversal along with Crude Oil.

The King Dollar is back on the top of the FX board at the end of the session, with the DXY back above 98.00 and exploding after forming a triple bottom.

Tomorrow welcomes the infamous NFP session along with Canadian Employment.

This will come along with many other smaller tier data releases but the 8:30 A.M ET release will be the largest mover of the session (barring some fundamental news regarding the Iran conflict).

As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US Stock Benchmarks exploded to new record highs just this morning, but the action has found a brutal stop
• Optimism regarding the peace process could have found its peak, with traders getting ready for tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls report
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

US stock benchmarks exploded to fresh record highs just this morning, but the historic price action has hit a brick wall.

In a frantic early-session rally, the S&P 500 reached the borderline insane 7,400 mark, the Nasdaq stalled right ahead of the 29,000 milestone, and the Dow Jones just grazed the psychological 50,000 level before failing to withstand the momentum.

Approaching these monumental technical milestones, the market clearly got ahead of itself, triggering a sharp and immediate intraday reversal.

The overarching optimism regarding the US-Iran peace process appears to have found its peak and this isn't just due to randomness.

Traders are aggressively backing off from extreme bullishness as they prepare for tomorrow's highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Compounding this macroeconomic hesitation are creeping doubts regarding Operation Freedom and its ultimate objectives to secure free passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Uncertainty is back to cast a dark shadow over quite-ecstatic equities; with recent reports indicating that Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are officially lifting restrictions on the use of US military bases, the market is sensing a turn in the narrative, fearing potential military preparations rather than purely diplomatic solutions.

Crude Oil prices are rallying quite aggressively from here, proof that anxiety is making a swift return to haunt trader sentiment.

A post-NFP response will be key to watch for traders and investors, but in the meantime, the recent euphoria from the peace process is rapidly turning into a painful hangover.

As we navigate this sudden risk-off shift, let's get ready for tomorrow's NFP data.

Dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Discover:

• Crude Oil on path to $90 as the peace trade continues – WTI Technical analysis
• Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) rally faces roadblock at 20-day and 50-day moving averages
• Copper attempts to break its mid-April $6.10 spike – On the way to new ATH? XCU/USD Outlook

The Market has officially been split, with close to 80% of Stocks trading lower but the heavy weights still doing the heavy lifting.

Only Nvidia, Microsoft and the Technology Services sub-sector are fighting the wave of profit-taking gripping Equities in today's action.

The Dow Jones took a sudden turn to the downside, remaining the only Index which failed to breach its early 2026 and actually formed a double top in that process.

Often late to the party, the Index does provide a more "realistic" view of current clouds seen in the Macro environment – For example, this was seen after September 2025, where the Index only reached new records as clouds regarding the US Economy dissipated.

Turning back to today, as long as the action remains above 49,000, a more rangebound picture is drawing.

However, breaking the support opens the way for large downside, with Key supports only found at psychological milestones.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• 50,165 morning highs
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs
• ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500
• All-Time Highs 50,544

Support Levels

• April 14 Gap Fill Pivot 49,500
• Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)
• Momentum Support 48,500
• Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)
• Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600

Nasdaq exploded to new record highs with no one to stop it on its rampage, until the Index stopped itself.

Stalling at a key 161.8% fibonacci target (28,850 to 29,000) led to a significant 400-point rejection, the first one since April 29.

The action for the index for now stays extremely bullish, but breaking the trendline (28,360) could see a larger corrective phase (27,000 seems like a decent target for now – expect a much larger correction below).

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 28,500 psychological resistance
• 28,850 - 29,000 Current ATH Resistance

Support Levels

• 28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)
• 27,500 micro-support
• Momentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)
• Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750
• Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300

The S&P 500 has also met its key fibonacci extensions right below 7,400, and losing its extremely bullish momentum aggressively since.

Closing the session below 7,350 opens the door to 7,300, a level that should see equilibrium until the 8:30 A.M. NFP release.

A break below 7,230 opens the door for larger downside.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 7,350 Minor Resistance
• 7,390 - 7,400 Channel extension resistance (morning highs)

Support Levels

• Momentum Pivot 7,250 to 7,260
• Channel lows 7,230 (bearish below)
• 7,100 psychological level
• Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020
• Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with the tone increasingly worsening.

Safe Trades and May the 4th be with you!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• WTI Oil took a significant hit throughout yesterday's session as Axios revealed a more US-Iran deal under construction, and these flows are extending in today's session
• Confirming its price action below $100, sellers are attempting a push towards $90. Will momentum be enough to break the key level?
• Exploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity

WTI Crude Oil dropped sharply yesterday after Axios reported that the US and Iran are working on a broad peace deal. The strong selling pressure is continuing into today.

After falling 8% yesterday, WTI is down another 5% today. Sellers are clearly getting in control of the market.

For months, prices rose steadily due to geopolitical tensions. Now, the trend has quickly shifted to a clear downward move. Now that prices have dropped below the key $100 level, the pressure is falling, and sellers are pushing toward $90.

The main question is whether this momentum will break that important support, as momentum becomes slightly oversold and Participants will look to confirm the latest narratives.

The prediction-market odds US-Iran peace deal by June 30 are currently around 55% after remaining around 30% for a while – A peace deal by May 31 is quite optimistic, but the odds are also rising above 40%.

Traders are selling oil mainly because negotiations are moving toward an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as confirmed by a report from Al Arabiya . Allowing normal shipping through this key route is a major reason for the drop in oil prices.

But for oil to fall another $20 and for gas prices to drop for consumers, a formal deal still needs to be signed.

This possible peace will need to be confirmed during the coming weeks of diplomatic talks, which recent statements have hinted at – With the much anticipated Trump-Xi meeting taking place next week, this could be an important date for the Oil Market.

Now, let's take a closer look at the technical analysis for WTI Crude to see if sellers can push prices below the $90 support level.

Read More:

• Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) rally faces roadblock at 20-day and 50-day moving averages
• Asia open: Stock markets rally on US-Iran peace hopes; tech drives S&P 500 to record highs
• Copper attempts to break its mid-April $6.10 spike – On the way to new ATH? XCU/USD Outlook

WTI has officially formed a decent looking top, with a lower high throughout the past week leading to the ongoing tumble, down 19% since its April 29 top.

Now breaking the key $93 Pivot zone with momentum, establishing below this area will be essential to confirm more downside ahead.

Higher timeframe traders will want to see a break and close below $90 to confirm.

WTI Technical Levels:

Resistance Levels

• Momentum Support now pivot $93 - $95 (breaking)
• $98 to $100 Pivotal Resistance
• $104 next-mini resistance (morning highs!)
• 2022 and Monday highs $117 to $120 (larger channel top)

Support Levels

• $90 Psychological level and past session's lows
• $87 to $90 mini-Support
• $82 Friday 17 lows
• 2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80

Swing trading such erratic Markets remain a fantasy, hence it could always be wiser to capture quick moves and re-assess with the news.

The action is currently oversold on most shorter timeframes, a reason why the selloff has somewhat stalled in the last hour. But Traders should still look at these elements:

• As long as the price action remains below $94.00, bears remain in control.
  • Watch out for minor upside consolidation around here; if the action stays stuck below the level, this adds to odds of a downside break.
• The selloff should accelerate if heavy volume sales occur below $90.
• Breaking back above $95 would hint at more rangebound or rallying action ahead (all the way to $103)

Safe Trades and Keep your eyes on the news!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Gold rebounded on easing geopolitical tensions: Gold (XAU/USD) surged 3% as optimism over a potential US–Iran peace deal reduced stagflation fears and increased expectations that the Fed could eventually pivot toward rate cuts, weakening the US dollar.
• Technical and intermarket signals remain cautious: Despite the rally, gold remains one of the weaker-performing major assets since late February, while firm US 10-year real yields above 1.85% continue to limit upside momentum by raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
• Near-term bearish bias still intact: Gold’s rebound stalled near the downward-sloping 20-day and 50-day moving averages and close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, while RSI momentum indicators flashed bearish divergence, keeping resistance at 4,775 in focus.

Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a significant intraday rally of 3% on Wednesday, 6 May 2026, on the backdrop of easing US-Iran geopolitical tensions, as positive news flows suggest a potential imminent peace deal resolution to end the two-month-long conflict.

An end to the US–Iran war would likely reduce stagflation risks as lower oil prices ease inflationary pressures, potentially giving the US Federal Reserve greater scope to consider resuming interest rate cuts.

A shift in Fed guidance from a “wait-and-see” stance toward a more dovish tone could weaken the US dollar, which in turn may provide further support for gold prices.

So far, considering the pre-war baseline of 27 February 2026 to Wednesday, 6 May 2026, spot Gold (LMBA) is still one of the underperformers among major cross assets with a loss of 9.9% (see Fig. 1).

Secondly, technical factors and intermarket analysis advocate that the trend of Gold (XAU/USD) has not transitioned into a medium-term uptrend phase despite yesterday’s 3% rally.

Let’s unpack these key technical and intermarket charts now.

Gold (XAU/USD) has a significant indirect correlation with the longer-term US Treasury yields, as the precious yellow metal is a non-interest income-bearing asset.

Hence, if the 10-year US Treasury real yield remains supported and stages an up move, gold in turn is likely to face downside pressure as opportunity costs rise for owning precious metals.

Since the start of this week, 4 May 2026, the 10-year US Treasury real yield has traded sideways above its key moving averages (20-day, 50-day, and 200-day) while holding above a key intermediate support of 1.85%.

Thus, a minor push-up on the 10-year US Treasury real yield to retest its near-term range resistance at 1.98% may translate to a minor slide in Gold (XAU/USD) (see Fig. 2).

Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of Gold (XAU/USD)

Trend bias: Bearish bias within a range configuration in place from 17 April 2026 to 19 April 2026. 4,775 key short-term pivotal resistance cannot be surpassed to maintain bearish bias (see Fig. 3).

Supports: 4,645, 4580, and 4,524/4,486 (range support)

Next resistance: 4,860/4,900 (range resistance – 15 April/17 April 2026 highs)

• The recent rebound from the 5 May 2026 low has reached the area of the downward-sloping 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
• The rebound has also almost retraced 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior drop from the 17 April 2026 high to the 5 May 2026 low at 4,740.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has exited the overbought region (above the 70 level) with a prior bearish divergence condition.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.