• Micron’s blockbuster earnings have reaffirmed that AI memory demand remains exceptionally strong. Record quarterly revenue, a substantial earnings beat, and robust guidance reinforce the view that high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and AI data centre spending remain supply-constrained despite broader macro uncertainty.
• The AI investment cycle has regained momentum after a sharp valuation reset. Micron’s results suggest the recent semiconductor selloff was driven more by positioning and valuation concerns than by deteriorating AI fundamentals, triggering a broad recovery across global chip stocks.
• Falling oil prices continue to improve the macro backdrop for growth assets. The continued unwinding of the Middle East geopolitical risk premium is easing inflation concerns and reducing input costs, partially offsetting the headwind from higher-for-longer interest rates.
• Attention now shifts to US Core PCE inflation. While Micron has significantly improved sentiment toward AI equities, today’s inflation data remains the key macro catalyst determining whether Treasury yields and the US dollar will continue to cap further upside in technology stocks.
• Chart of the day: WTI crude bearish breakdown below the 200-day moving average, with further potential short-term weakness ahead, below $75.25, a key short-term resistance level.

The ongoing 4-week weakness in the price action of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude oil futures) since the 18 May 2025 high of $109.74/bbl culminated in a bearish breakdown of its key 200-day moving average on Wednesday, 24 June 2026.

The further deterioration in the technical structure of the West Texas Oil CFD reinforces at least a near-term weakness in oil prices.

Watch the $75.25/bbl key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential further drop, exposing the next intermediate supports at $67.40/66.10 and $63.80 (see Fig. 1).

However, a clearance above $75.25 invalidates the bearish scenario, opening the door to a minor corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at $77.39 and $79.23/80.75.

• Micron smashes estimates with blockbuster Q3 results and bullish AI outlook: Micron Technology Inc. delivered a monumental fiscal third-quarter earnings beat after the close. Driven by insatiable generative AI demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and data-centre DRAM, the chipmaker guided Q4 revenues to an unprecedented $50 billion (plus or minus $1 billion), sending its stock soaring over 15% in extended trading and reinflating the broader tech complex, in turn, triggering a recovery of 1.5% on the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures in today’s Asian session.
• Wall Street Finished mixed in the regular session before an after-hours tech surge: Before Micron’s earnings release, major U.S. indexes exhibited highly fragmented behaviour as investors balanced stretched megacap tech multiples against cyclical value plays. The S&P 500 closed down a minor 0.1% to settle at 7,358, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slid 0.4% to finish at 29,220. Conversely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 182.06 points (0.4%) to close at 51,854, supported by rotation into financials and homebuilders.
• Crude slumps beneath $78 as Strait of Hormuz transit normalisation deepens: Energy futures contracts extended their downward path as maritime shipping telemetry confirmed that commercial vessels have normalised transits through the Persian Gulf bottleneck. The formal operationalisation of the US-Iran 60-day roadmap and associated temporary petroleum export waivers triggered broad systemic liquidations of long hedges, pushing front-month Brent futures toward $73.38/bbl (-4.8%) and WTI to settle at $69.87/bbl (-4.4%), unwinding the structural war premium.
• Gold slumps 2.7% to test psychological floors amid aggressive yield pressures: Spot gold experienced a sharp rout, declining 2.7% to settle a whisker below the key $4,000/oz psychological level at $3,999/oz on Wednesday, 24 June. The metal faced persistent liquidation pressure on its asset portfolios, with capital reallocated from yielding safe havens into nominal-yielding assets ahead of the highly anticipated US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index release later today.

• The structural separation of core AI demand from broad cyclical pressures: Micron Technology’s historic earnings and revenue print demonstrates a profound structural bifurcation within global capital expenditure. While traditional industrial proxies like FedEx are flashing signals of slowing global trade volumes and corporate margin compression, physical layer AI infrastructure remains entirely insulated. Because top-tier hyperscalers are fully booking advanced HBM nodes throughout calendar year 2027, chip demand behaves independently of baseline macroeconomic cycles, validating the multi-trillion-dollar valuation expansion across specialised hardware nodes.
• The transience of geopolitical risk premiums in commodity markets: The continued decline in international energy benchmarks underscores how quickly systemic trend-following funds will withdraw once physical supply paths normalise. The implementation of the US-Iran temporary waiver has converted localised anxieties about maritime scarcity into an immediate prompt-market inventory buffer. As crude contracts trade out of their war premium, the broader macro outlook gains an implicit shield against supply-side inflation, offsetting hawkish central bank liabilities.
• Intraday multiple compression followed by high-beta volatility release: The sharp regular-session profit-taking across Wall Street growth names, followed by Micron’s explosive 15% after-hours rally, illustrates the extreme sensitivity of modern financial markets to real-time information flow. Operating under a higher-for-longer baseline cost of capital, public equity indices are intensely compressing multiples during regular cash hours whenever concrete forward-looking data is absent. However, once a key structural anchor delivers a clean, undeniable demand beat, institutional capital rapidly re-enters high-beta growth ecosystems, compressing short positioning.

Equities: Regular-session trading saw the S&P 500 edge down 0.1% and the Nasdaq-100 drop 0.4%. However, Micron’s massive post-market Q3 beat sent its shares up 15% to $1,213 in after-hours trading, triggering a wave of buying that lifted major semiconductor and hardware indices across the Asia-Pacific region. The Dow Jones (DJIA) added 0.4% during cash hours. The E-mini futures of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rebounded by 0.4% and 1.6% in today’s Asian session.

Fixed Income: Global bond curves experienced minor stabilisation. The short-duration US 2-year Treasury yield fluctuated near 4.15% while the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield consolidated around 4.40%. Portfolios maintained a steady posture, adjusting for the upcoming sovereign note supply and highly anticipated US PCE inflation data out later today.

FX: The US Dollar Index (DXY) maintained its bullish tone, extending its gains by 0.2% to settle at 101.36, a 13-month high on Wednesday, 26 June. In the past 24 hours, the Australian and New Zealand dollars have been the weakest among the major currencies, dropping by 0.1% and 0.2% against the greenback to trade at 0.6893 and 0.5641 in today’s Asian session.

Commodities: Front-month Brent crude futures fell to $73.38/bbl as the normalisation of the Gulf shipping transit normalised localised risk premiums. In today’s Asian session, it extended its losses by 1.3% to $72.88/bbl, its lowest level since early March 2026.

Spot gold prices remained soft and extending its decline by 0.4% in today’s Asian session to trade at $3,981/oz intraday, a 7-month low, driven by capital shifting away from non-yielding hedges toward higher-yielding alternatives.

• Asian tech centres positioned for substantial rebound on Micron: The explosive after-hours performance of Micron is set to trigger intensive upward tracking across North Asian electronics centres. South Korea’s chip heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, alongside Taiwan’s semiconductor giants, face significant upside momentum as the verified revenue records ease concerns about localised AI hardware spending limits. South Korea’s KOSPI (+6%), Taiwan’s TAIEX (+1%), Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+3.7%), China’s CSI 300 (+0.7%), Singapore’s STI (+0.2%). In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (-1.1%) and Australia’s ASX 200 (-0.1%) underperformed.
• Yen consolidates extensively near multi-decade intervention floor: The Japanese yen remains under intense pressure against the greenback, pinning USD/JPY near 161.70, below a key major resistance at 161.95. Wide interest rate differentials continue to favour the US dollar, keeping Bank of Japan policy authorities highly vigilant for localised measures to smooth volatility if speculative yen dumping accelerates.
• Regional importers absorb lower near-term input energy outlays: Energy-dependent bourses across the APAC region continue to capture real-time current-account benefits from the downward trend in Brent crude prices, lowering input costs for raw manufacturing materials and softening the immediate impact of local currency depreciation against the broad-based strength of the US dollar.

1. Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Jul) - 2:00 pm SGT (consensus: -27.6, Jun: -29.8) Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAX
2. US Core PCE Inflation Index (May) - 8:30 pm (SGT) (consensus: 3.4% y/y, Apr: 3.3% y/y) Impact: All asset classes
3. Fed Speak (Williams) - Friday, 3:40 am (SGT) Impact: USD, shorter-term US Treasuries, US stock indices

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• Micron remains one of the strongest AI winners of 2026 despite the recent semiconductor selloff. The stock has surged 268% year-to-date and 227% since 30 March, significantly outperforming the SOX Index and Nasdaq 100.
• The earnings report is less about historical numbers and more about visibility into future AI demand. Investors will focus on HBM demand, DRAM and NAND pricing trends, gross margin expansion, and management’s forward guidance.
• Expectations are exceptionally high. A strong beat alone may not be sufficient. Micron likely needs a clear “beat-and-raise” outcome, reinforced by positive commentary on AI memory demand and supply constraints, to sustain its uptrend.
• Technically, Micron is showing signs of medium-term exhaustion. Bearish divergences in relative strength and momentum indicators suggest that even strong earnings could trigger a “sell-the-news” reaction if guidance falls short of elevated expectations.

Despite the rampant sell-off in global semiconductor/AI-infrastructure stocks on Tuesday, 23 June 2026, Micron Technology (MU) is still recording an enormous year-to-date return of 268% as of 23 June 2026, clearly surpassing the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) and Nasdaq 100 by a wide margin (see Fig. 1). and the bulk of MU’s gains came from the recent medium-term uptrend from the 30 March 2026 to 23 June 2026 with a whopping gain of 227% (see Fig. 2).

Ahead of its earnings release for FYQ3 later today after the close of the US session, Micron Technology remains a key barometer for the AI hardware cycle, with investor focus centred on high-bandwidth memory demand, DRAM/NAND pricing momentum, gross margin expansion, and forward guidance.

The market is looking for confirmation that AI-related memory demand remains supply-constrained, supported by strong hyperscaler spending and tighter industry inventory conditions.

While headline revenue and EPS growth are expected to be robust, share price performance will likely hinge on whether management can deliver a convincing beat-and-raise narrative.

Strong HBM commentary, firmer memory pricing, and margin upside would reinforce Micron’s position as a core beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout, supporting further valuation upside.

Conversely, any signs of pricing fatigue, margin pressure, or softer forward demand could trigger profit-taking, especially given the stock’s strong rally and elevated earnings expectations.

Trend bias: Bearish reversal below 1,214 key medium-term pivotal resistance within major uptrend phase (see Fig. 3).

Supports: 989.15 (also the 20-day moving average), 818,67 (also the 50-day moving average), and 651.74

Next resistances: 1,353/473 and 1,666 (Fibonacci extension cluster)

• The prior two days of price action on 22 June 2026 and 23 June 2026 have staged a bearish reaction at the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel from the 31 March 2026 low of 311.49, suggesting the medium-term uptrend phase may have reached exhaustion.
• The daily volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of MU against the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (SPY) has hit a resistance at 10.35 on Tuesday, 23 June 2026.
• The daily RSI momentum indicator has just broken below a key ascending support after a prior bearish divergence condition at its overbought region.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The correction in AI and semiconductor stocks has broadened beyond isolated names into a wider valuation reset. Investors are increasingly questioning whether the pace of AI-related capital expenditure can continue to justify current earnings multiples, triggering profit-taking across technology and hardware leaders.
• The US dollar has emerged as the dominant macro driver. The breakout of the Dollar Index above the key 101.00 level, supported by elevated Treasury yields and a higher-for-longer Fed narrative, is exerting pressure on risk assets, commodities, and Asia-Pacific currencies.
• The unwinding of the Middle East war premium continues to accelerate. Iranian export waivers and normalised shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz have driven oil prices to multi-month lows, creating a favourable backdrop for energy-importing economies but weighing heavily on energy producers.
• Chart of the day: AUD/USD medium-term downtrend remains intact; intraday minor corrective rebound may be exhausted below the 0.6960 key short-term resistance.

The AUD/USD has continued its medium-term downward spiral since the 13 May 2026 high of 0.7272 and extended its losses on Tuesday, 23 June by 1.2% to settle at a 2-month low of 0.6916 on the backdrop of rising risk aversion (see Fig. 1).

Tuesday’s steep intraday drop has led the hourly RSI momentum indicator to flash a bullish divergence in its oversold region, suggesting an imminent minor corrective/dead cat bounce.

Watch the 0.6960 key short-term pivotal resistance on the AUD/USD for the potential minor corrective rebound to get exhausted close to below it, with the next immediate supports coming in at 0.6900 and 0.6876/6863 (also close to the 200-day moving average).

On the other hand, a clearance and an hourly close above 0.6960 invalidates the bearish tone for an extension of the minor corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at 0.6985 and 0.7020.

• Global tech selloff rattles Wall Street as valuation pressures broaden: The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 plummeted 3.3 %, and the S&P 500 slipped 0.37% as investors aggressively locked in profits across semiconductor and hardware heavyweights, also dragged down by weakness in semiconductor-centric South Korea’s KOSPI (-10%). The widespread selloff reflected mounting institutional anxiety regarding the sustainability of elevated capital expenditure trends relative to intermediate-term AI monetisation timelines, forcing a broad risk-off rotation into defensive value stocks.
• Continuation of US Dollar Index positive follow-through after last week’s major range bullish breakout, cleared above 101.00: The greenback caught a ferocious safe-haven bid across global cash sessions, fracturing long-term technical and structural consolidation bands to hover near 101.40. The breakout was fueled by widening global interest-rate differentials, persistent core inflation revisions out of Europe, and broader defensive positioning amid systemic volatility in equities.
• Brent Crude sinks under $80 as operationalisation of Iranian waivers unwinds war premium: Front-month Brent crude oil futures extended losses by 1.5% to settle at $76.73/bbl on Tuesday, 23 June. The downward pressure accelerated as the US Treasury’s 60-day temporary export waivers for Iranian petroleum officially began shifting physical maritime flows, significantly alleviating immediate shipping anxieties in the Strait of Hormuz and triggering systematic trend-follower bearish liquidations.

• The broadening valuation discipline across high-beta growth sectors: The simultaneous correction in megacap chip equities and public-market newcomer SpaceX (SPCX) signals an organic shift in institutional risk appetite. Rather than blindly funding continuous, open-ended capital expenditure pools, global asset allocators are beginning to demand clearer visibility on structural intermediate net income generation. With the cost of equity capital structurally elevated due to sticky short-end yields, growth multiples are encountering an organic compression phase, transitioning the macro environment away from pure thematic momentum toward strict balance-sheet discipline.
• The disruption of sovereign supply waves in short-duration fixed income: The upward repricing of the US 2-year Treasury yield demonstrates the compounding friction of sovereign debt expansion on the depth of institutional liquidity. As the US Treasury forces rolling multi-billion-dollar auctions onto primary dealers, market participants are extracting a structurally higher baseline term premium. This dynamic prevents long-duration yields from falling significantly, effectively introducing a persistent floor under global corporate borrowing costs and blunting the impact of any potential central bank policy easing cycles.
• Geopolitical risk escalation and commodity hedge liquidations: The swift operationalisation of the US-Iran 60-day implementation roadmap underscores the inherent fragility of geopolitical war premiums within the energy complex. Systematic macro funds and options desks that had built extensive long crude hedges are rapidly liquidating exposures as physical maritime telemetry confirms normalised merchant shipping flows through the critical Strait of Hormuz bottleneck. This injection of Persian Gulf oil supply is accelerating near-term energy cost deflation, offering localised breathing room to heavy energy-importing regions.

Equities: The Nasdaq 100 plummeted 3.3% to close under pressure, while the S&P 500 slid 1.4% to finish at 7,365, closing below the 20-day moving average. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the broader risk-off trend, closed almost unchanged on Tuesday, 23 June, supported by defensive health care stocks.

Fixed Income: Selling pressure dominated short-duration curves globally. The 2-year US Treasury yield remained firm at 4.2%, while the 10-year US Treasury yield traded above its 20-day moving average (4.49%) for the second consecutive session, settling at 4.50%.

FX: The US Dollar Index (DXY) staged an aggressive technical breakout past long-term range barriers amid risk aversion in global equities. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar dropped by 1.2%, hitting a 2-month low of 0.6916 against the greenback.

The British pound also wobbled, trading down 0.4% to settle at 1.3203 on Tuesday, looking to retest a 3-month low of 1.3160 amid waiting for clarity on the UK’s new Prime Minister’s policies. The Japanese yen continued to hover near the 161.95 multi-decade intervention threshold.

Commodities: Energy markets suffered extensive liquidation, with front-month Brent and WTI crude futures extending losses by 1.5% and 1.4% to settle at $76.73/bbl and $73.05/bbl on Tuesday, 23 June, while holding above their respective 200-day moving averages.

Spot gold continued its downward spiral, settling at $4,110/oz, just a whisker away from the 11 June 2026 low of $4,024/oz as surging sovereign bond yields and a dominant US dollar eroded its non-yielding appeal.

• South Korean and Taiwanese tech stocks bear the brunt of global liquidation: The global semiconductor rout sparked immediate downside tracking across APAC semiconductor stocks. South Korea’s KOSPI index suffered a dramatic 10% sell-off on Tuesday, 23 June, as foreign institutional capital flowed out of structural hardware leaders such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Intraday softness continued to prevail in today’s Asian session; Japan’s Nikkei 2225 (-1.6%), South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.5%), Taiwan’s TAIEX (-2.4%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (unchanged), China’s CSI 300 (+0.1%), Australia’s ASX 200 (+0.1%), and Singapore STI (+0.2%).
• Japanese yen tests policy-intervention boundary near 161.95: Wide real interest rate differentials continued to punish the Yen, locking USD/JPY below the critical 161.95 threshold. Despite increasingly stringent verbal warnings from Finance Minister Katayama regarding spot-market smoothing operations, macro funds are actively testing the central bank’s true pain threshold. Currently, the USD/JPY 161.55 intraday after Tuesday’s tight range movement of only 48 pips.
• Regional energy importers may capture input-cost windfalls: The collapse of Brent crude below $80/bbl is translating into an immediate structural current-account cushion for energy-dependent Asian economies such as China and India. The normalisation of Persian Gulf supply lowers immediate manufacturing input costs and insulates domestic trade balances from the rising US dollar.

1. RBA Deputy Governor Hauser Speech - 2.30 pm SGT Impact: AUD/USD, AUD crosses
2. BoJ Deputy Governor Himino Speech - 2.40 pm SGT Impact: USD/JPY, JPY crosses
3. Germany Ifo Business Climate (Jun) - 4:00 pm SGT (consensus: 85.6, May: 84.9) Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAX
4. EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stockpile Change - 10:30 pm SGT Impact: WTI crude oil futures
5. Micron Technology FYQ3 Earnings (after US close) Impact: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The unwinding of the Middle East risk premium continues to pressure energy markets. The US-Iran 60-day implementation roadmap and temporary authorisation of Iranian crude exports have accelerated the liquidation of long oil positions, pushing WTI and Brent crude toward multi-month lows despite ongoing diplomatic uncertainty.
• AI infrastructure spending remains a key pillar of market leadership. The strategic partnership between Micron and Anthropic reinforced the view that semiconductor and memory demand remains structurally strong, helping the SOX Index reach fresh record highs even as broader equity markets struggled for direction.
• A stronger US dollar and rising short-term Treasury yields are becoming the dominant macro headwind. The rise in the 2-year Treasury yield to its highest level since early 2025, coupled with persistent dollar strength, has weighed on Asia-Pacific equities and kept pressure on regional currencies, particularly the Japanese yen.
• Chart of the day: The S&P 500 is showing near-term weakness, trading below the key short-term resistance at 7,557 and back below the 20-day moving average.

Since the ex-post FOMC sell-off last Wednesday, 17 June 2026, the price action of the US S&P 500 CFD (a proxy for the S&P 500 E-mini futures) has remained lethargic, having re-entered a range below its 20-day moving average (see Fig. 1).

In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has broken below its ascending support, which suggests a revival of short-term bearish momentum.

Watch the 7,557 key short-term pivotal resistance to maintain a near-term bearish bias, and a break below 7,436 exposes the next intermediate support at 7,374 (also the 50-day moving average) in the first step.

However, a clearance with an hourly close above 7,557 invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest 7,600 and even the current all-time high of 7,625.

• US-Iran 60-Day peace roadmap triggers aggressive crude oil sell-off: Front-month WTI and Brent crude futures plunged toward $74.08 and $78.15 per barrel, while still trading above their respective 200-day moving averages as details of the diplomatic breakthrough emerged from Switzerland. Mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, the US and Iran have established an explicit 60-day implementation roadmap. The US Treasury’s subsequent temporary authorisation for the sale and transport of Iranian petroleum has alleviated immediate fears of a structural blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, thereby reducing geopolitical risk premiums.
• AI infrastructure land grab intensifies with Micron-Anthropic alliance: Several US semiconductor shares caught a strong bid following the announcement of a multi-billion-dollar strategic hardware and capital agreement between Micron Technology and AI pioneer Anthropic. Micron will guarantee priority supply of next-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to anchor Anthropic’s accelerating data centre expansions, while concurrently participating in a major Series H funding round, reinforcing intense institutional demand for physical-layer AI infrastructure.
• SpaceX shares retreat following blockbuster IPO mania and notes offering: One week after completing the largest IPO in history, shares of Elon Musk’s newly listed Space Exploration Technologies Corp. slid 3.9% to close at $154.60, breaking below its debut closing level of $160.95. The stock recorded its third consecutive daily loss as the rockets-to-AI giant announced plans for a new senior unsecured notes offering to support capital expenditures, following its final $85.7 billion IPO.
• Sovereign bond yields advance ahead of massive short-duration supply: Fixed income markets faced renewed selling pressure as global benchmark yields ticked higher. The US 2-year note auction forced short-duration yields higher as primary dealers braced for heavy supply absorption. The 2-year US Treasury yield jumped by 5 bps to close Monday’s session at 4.23%, its highest level since mid-February 2025.

• Geopolitical de-escalation and energy supply shocks’ pricing: The global commodity market is undergoing a swift adjustment as the US-Iran 60-day roadmap shifts from theoretical diplomacy to actual implementation. By explicitly authorising the near-term delivery and sale of Iranian crude, the US Treasury has effectively eliminated the risk of an extended shipping blockade in the Persian Gulf. This rapid normalisation of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is prompting systematic macro funds to liquidate long energy hedges, overriding localised supply constraints and fundamentally lowering the baseline for global input cost inflation.
• The secular insulation of AI capital expenditure: Despite broader macroeconomic uncertainty and elevated global borrowing costs, the physical layer of the artificial intelligence ecosystem remains highly insulated from cyclical contraction. The strategic alliance between Micron and Anthropic underscores an ongoing “land grab” for specialised silicon and high-bandwidth memory. Because tier-one AI developers are prioritising infrastructure security over near-term capital conservation, corporate expenditure in the semiconductor supply chain is acting as a primary structural backstop for equity markets, decoupling tech benchmarks from underlying fixed-income volatility.
• Post-IPO valuation rebalancing of trillion-dollar mega-caps: The post-listing turbulence in SpaceX highlights the complex fundamental math facing newly public mega-caps. While retail and options mania propelled the combined rocket-and-AI entity past a $2.2 trillion valuation last week, its high capital expenditure profile, exceeding fiscal 2025 revenue, and the announcement of a new debt offering have brought fundamental discipline back into focus. At 118 times fiscal 2025 sales, the market’s willingness to look past immediate net losses to fund Starlink and Starship infrastructure serves as a major indicator of long-duration growth risk appetite across global asset classes.

Equities: The broader equity landscape closed flat to mixed, but semiconductor stocks significantly outperformed, with the SOX rallying 2% to a new all-time high. Micron Technology climbed 7% on news of its strategic deal with Anthropic, providing strong upward momentum that lifted hardware and semiconductor names. Conversely, SpaceX (SPCX) slipped 3.94% to $154.60 as profit-taking, and its upcoming debt offering weighed on early momentum.

FX: The US Dollar Index (DXY) inched higher by 0.2% to close Monday’s session at 110.00 after last week’s bullish breakout from its prior major range resistance of 100.54. The Swiss franc (CHF) underperformed notably across major currency pairs, extending its losses against the greenback to a 7-month low of 0.8097, pressured by the Swiss National Bank’s sustained dovish structural policy stance relative to peers. Meanwhile, the ongoing weakness in the Japanese yen tested a key intervention level of 161.95 per US dollar on Monday. USD/JPY printed an intraday high of 161.93 before trading slightly lower to close at 161.60 in the US session.

Fixed income: Sovereign bonds faced moderate selling pressure. Euro area yields edged higher, led by Spanish debt following an upgraded regional inflation forecast. US Treasury curves shifted upward as market participants braced for heavy short-duration supply absorption later in the week.

Commodities: Front-month international energy contracts suffered sharp liquidations. Brent crude plunged 2.8% to close at $78.15/bbll as the US Treasury’s 60-day waiver on Iranian petroleum exports neutralised the structural war premium, while spot gold remained soft to end Monday’s US session at $4,192/oz, holding below its 20-day moving average at $4,320/oz on the backdrop of firmer US Treasury yields.

• APAC technology ecosystems capture hardware tailwinds but US dollar strength capped gains: The multi-billion-dollar infrastructure commitments across the US technology complex triggered immediate positive spillover effects for Asian semiconductor hubs. But a firmer US dollar has triggered a bout of selling pressure in most Asia-Pacific bourses at the start of today’s Asian session. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-0.9%), South Korea’s KOSPI (-4.1%), Taiwan’s TAIEX (-0.3%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (-0.6%), China’s CSI 300 (-1%), with the exception of Australia’s ASX 200 (unchanged), and Singapore’s STI (+0.3%).
• Regional importers benefit from Persian Gulf supply normalisation: The sudden de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is providing a meaningful structural cushion for energy-dependent Asian economies. Major regional refiners, particularly across China and India, are projecting lower near-term crude import bills, offering localised support to current account balances.

1. Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (Jun) - 4:00 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAX
2. UK S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (Jun) - 4:30 pm SGT Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FTSE 100
3. US S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (Jun) - 9:45 pm SGT Impact: USD, US stock indices
4. SpaceX Starfall Demo Mission Liftoff Impact: SPCX Shares, Aerospace & Defence ETFs, Nasdaq 100 Index

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• US-Iran peace negotiations remain fragile despite progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. While crude oil continues to flow through the waterway and a 60-day roadmap remains intact, fresh geopolitical threats and proxy-conflict risks highlight that energy markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to headline-driven volatility.
• The US dollar remains the dominant macro trade. Supported by the Fed's higher-for-longer stance and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the US Dollar Index continues to strengthen while the Japanese yen trades dangerously close to intervention territory and other Asian currencies remain under pressure.
• Markets are entering a period of divergence across regions and asset classes. Japanese and South Korean equities continue to outperform, while Hong Kong equities struggle amid growth concerns in China. At the same time, investors are increasingly balancing geopolitical developments against rising protectionism, elevated bond yields, and slowing global growth expectations.
• Chart of the day: GBP/USD may face further weakness below 1.3262/3280 key short-term resistance as the pair probes the 1.3160 key support amid UK Prime Minister Starmer’s potential imminent resignation.

The recent plunge in GBP/USD managed to survive after a retest of the long-term secular ascending channel support from the 26 September 2022 low on last Friday, 19 June 2026 (printing an intraday low of 1.3163) (see Fig. 1).

However, short-term bullish momentum is absent, as suggested by the hourly RSI, which remains capped below a key descending trendline at 50.

Watch the 1.3262/3280 key short-term pivotal resistance for a bearish bias outlook to expose the next intermediate supports at 1.3190 and 1.3160.

However, a clearance and an hourly close above 1.3280 would invalidate the bearish bias, opening the door to a potential squeeze up towards the medium-term resistance at 1.3325.

• Fresh threats stoke tensions at Switzerland peace talks: High-level diplomatic negotiations in the Swiss resort of Bürgenstock got off to a rocky start over the weekend. A fresh warning of retaliatory military strikes should regional proxies advance (hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel) disrupted the early sessions, briefly prompting Iranian media to report a temporary halt in negotiations before sources confirmed meetings continued under a highly volatile 60-day de-escalation window between the US and Iran.
• Strait of Hormuz reopening holds despite rhetoric: Despite Iranian localised claims of operational blockades over the weekend, real-time maritime tracking verified that millions of barrels of crude oil continued to move systematically through the Strait of Hormuz. Insurance syndicates and shipping fleets are maintaining transits while keeping a sharp eye on structural security guarantees.
• S&P 500 futures dipped amid uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks: Coming off the Friday Juneteenth cash market close, the E-mini futures of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 shed by 0.4% and 0.5% in today’s Asia opening session as media outlets reported that US-Iran talks on a peace deal to settle the issue of Tehrans nuclear program and permanently reopen the Strait of Hormuz are still continuing into Monday. The talks had a confusing start on Sunday as Iranian media reported that Iran halted talks over US President Trump’s latest threat of a Hezbollah offensive towards Israel.
• G7 summit in Evian wraps up amid looming trade friction: The three-day G7 economic summit concluded in France with a spotlight on structural trade policies. Significant friction emerged over prospective 100% tariffs targeting specific digital and consumer luxury sectors, alongside a unified initiative to address systemic industrial imbalances and diversify clean-tech supply chains outside primary APAC manufacturing corridors.
• Political headwinds in the UK: Allies of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to set out a timetable for his departure imminently, paving the way for party rival, Andy Burnham, to replace him. A statement from Starmer ceding power could come as soon as Monday, and The Guardian newspaper reported on Sunday evening that Starmer would set out his intentions in a statement outside Downing Street on Monday morning. The British pound extends its losses by 0.2% against the US dollar in today’s Asian opening session to trade at 1.3205 after last week’s steep loss of 1.3% against the greenback.

• The geopolitical premium recalibration in energy complexes: The fragile reality of the Bürgenstock peace framework underscores that removing the Middle Eastern war premium will not occur in a straight line. Front-month energy futures spent the weekend instantly reacting to the delicate diplomatic landscape, proving that headline risk remains the dominant driver of intraday crude volatility. While physical barrels are currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz normally, the constant threat of localised proxy escalation continues to hold a structural floor underneath back-month global supply curves.
• Broad G7 protectionism and global supply chain friction: The rhetoric following the G7 summit confirms that Western economies are adopting more defensive economic postures. The looming deployment of targeted 100% tariffs indicates that cross-border trade friction is expanding beyond raw automotive electric vehicles into upstream supply networks. For global macro allocators, this structural shift toward "friend-shoring" means structural input costs are likely to remain sticky, introducing secondary complications for central banks attempting to coordinate an easing cycle.
• Institutional capital rotations in the crypto winter core: The disconnect between resilient benchmark equity indices and the collapse of valuations in digital assets highlights an ongoing liquidity drain in highly speculative alternative asset classes. Record-breaking outflows from spot digital vehicles indicate that institutional capital is prioritising sovereign nominal yields and traditional large-cap corporate cash flows over crypto-risk premiums. As a result, structural regulatory milestones like MiCA adoption are acting as survival baselines rather than immediate bullish catalysts.

Equities: S&P 500 E-mini futures is trading down by 0.25% in today’s Asian session, paring its earlier intraday loss of 0.6%, maintaining a 9.6% year-to-date advance. European cash bourses experienced muted trade at the close of the week, with the DAX digesting broader macro stagnation projections of 0.8% for the Eurozone block heading into the summer quarter.

Fixed Income: Sovereign yields globally adjusted to sticky energy pricing baselines. With consumer price indexes expected to show upward pressure due to past distribution disruptions, the 2-year US Treasury yield gapped up by 32 bps on Monday’s Asian session to trade at 4.21%, a 16-month high.

FX: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) maintained its structural uptrend, drawing safety flows amid volatile Swiss headlines surrounding the US-Iran talks, and rose marginally by 0.05% to 100.80 in today’s Asian session. The euro remained flat against the greenback amid stagnant growth figures from the Eurozone forums, while the Japanese yen weakened by 0.1% to trade at 161.49 per US dollar, near a 2-year low as speculators probe the intervention level of 161.95.

Commodities: Intraday volatile movement for WTI and Brent crude over conflicting headlines of US-Iran peace deal talk in Switzerland. WTI and Brent crude are now trading down by almost 1% at $76.85-$79.44/bbl, erasing earlier intraday gains of 1.9% and 2.4% but still holding above their respective key 200-day moving averages after news that mediators Qatar and Pakistan have announced a formal 60-day roadmap toward a final US-Iran peace deal.

• Regional currencies under pressure: Asian currencies began the week on the defensive, heavily weighed down by the renewed weekend surge in dollar-denominated energy input costs. Exporters across Taiwan and South Korea are monitoring local currency baselines as wide interest rate differentials continue to favour the greenback. The USD/KRW rose by 0.4% in today’s Asian session to trade at 1,535, holding firmly above the 20-day moving average at 1,520. Meanwhile, mixed performances are seen in the Asia Pacific bourses: Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+1.8%), South Korea’s KOSPI (+1.9%), China’s CSI 300 (+0.16%), Australia’s ASX 200 (unchanged), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (-1.9%), and Singapore’s STI (-0.2%)
• Supply chain rediversification forces tactical multiples compression: Decisions at the G7 summit targeting clean-tech and industrial manufacturing capacity inside Asia are forcing an immediate re-evaluation of long-term corporate guidance. Regional tech and industrial equities are preparing for narrower valuation margins as Western supply policies favour regional redundancy over cost optimisation.

1. Canada Core Inflation Rate (May) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 2.2% y/y, Apr: 2.1%) Impact: USD/CAD, CAD crosses
2. ECB Consumer Confidence Flash (Jun) - 10:00 pm SGT (consensus: -18%, May: -19) Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAX
3. Potential announcement of UK Prime Minister Starmer’s resignation Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FTSE 100
4. US-Iran peace talks roadmap discussions Impact: All asset classes.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• USDCHF has strengthened sharply, rising 1.3% this week and more than 3.3% since the start of the month, supported by a stronger US dollar and weaker Swiss franc
• The Fed’s hawkish tone boosted the dollar, as markets increased expectations for a possible US rate hike after Kevin Warsh emphasized price stability and the fight against inflation
• The Swiss franc came under pressure after the SNB kept rates at 0% and signaled readiness to intervene in the FX market to prevent excessive franc appreciation, which supports the upward bias in USDCHF

The USDCHF pair has strengthened noticeably in recent days. This week, the exchange rate rose by 1.3%, and since the beginning of the current month it has gained more than 3.3%. This move has been driven mainly by a combination of a stronger dollar and a weaker Swiss franc, which came under pressure following the Swiss National Bank’s statement.

On the US side, the key factor was the FOMC’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.5–3.75% range, as well as Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Warsh strongly emphasized that the Fed’s priority remains price stability, meaning the fight against inflation. Investors interpreted this message as a signal that the US central bank could return to rate hikes sooner if incoming data confirm persistent price pressures.

As a result, expectations for a more restrictive monetary policy in the United States increased. The market began pricing in the possibility of a rate hike within the next six weeks as a scenario close to a 50% probability. This supported the dollar, especially against lower-yielding currencies such as the Swiss franc.

The SNB keeps rates unchanged but warns against an excessively strong Franc

In Switzerland, the Swiss National Bank kept its main interest rate at 0%, while at the same time emphasizing its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market. This means that, if necessary, the SNB may sell francs to limit an excessively rapid and excessive appreciation of the currency.

For the market, this was an important signal. The franc remains one of the key safe-haven currencies, which is why it often strengthens during periods of geopolitical tension. However, the SNB indicated that an overly strong currency could harm the economy, especially exporters, and further reduce inflation. After the statement, the franc weakened against the euro, confirming that investors interpreted the central bank’s stance as a factor limiting the Swiss currency’s appreciation potential.

Inflation in Switzerland currently stands at 0.6% and remains within the SNB’s target range of 0% to 2%. The bank slightly raised its inflation forecast for this year from 0.5% to 0.6%, while expecting only moderate price growth in the following years. At the same time, the economic growth forecast remained unchanged, assuming growth of around 1% this year and 1.5% next year. This shows that the SNB’s main concern is currently not inflation, but the exchange rate of the franc.

Diverging central bank stances support USDCHF

The current situation in USDCHF clearly reflects the divergence between Fed and SNB policy. The Federal Reserve is signaling greater determination in fighting inflation and may be ready to tighten monetary policy further. The SNB, by contrast, is keeping rates at 0% and is focused primarily on preventing excessive appreciation of the franc.

This combination supports further gains in USDCHF. The dollar is benefiting from higher expectations for US interest rates, while the franc remains under pressure due to the SNB’s readiness to act in the foreign exchange market. In addition, the temporary agreement in the Middle East reduced demand for safe-haven assets, which also limited interest in the franc.

The market will remain sensitive to data and geopolitics

In the coming weeks, the performance of USDCHF will depend mainly on two factors: US macroeconomic data and the level of geopolitical tensions. If inflation in the United States remains elevated and the Fed maintains a firm tone, the dollar may continue to strengthen. Warsh has announced less predictable communication and greater dependence of decisions on incoming data, which could increase volatility in the currency market.

On the other hand, a decline in oil prices, weaker economic growth or lower inflation readings could reduce expectations for US rate hikes and therefore weigh on the dollar. For the franc, the key issue will remain whether geopolitical tensions rise again. A return of risk aversion could increase demand for the Swiss currency, although the SNB has clearly suggested that it will counteract any excessively sharp appreciation.

USDCHF maintains a bullish bias

For now, the balance of fundamental factors supports further strength in USDCHF. The pair is benefiting both from dollar appreciation following the Fed’s hawkish message and from franc weakness after the SNB’s statement. The 1.3% weekly rise and the gain of more than 3.3% since the beginning of the month show that investors are clearly shifting capital toward the US currency. As long as the market continues to price in the possibility of rate hikes in the United States, while the SNB signals readiness to limit franc strength, USDCHF may remain under upward pressure.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

• The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has accelerated the unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium. Crude oil has fallen sharply, with WTI posting a 10% weekly decline as Gulf oil exports resume and supply concerns ease, supporting global risk sentiment and reducing near-term inflation pressures.
• The US dollar remains the dominant beneficiary of the Fed’s hawkish pivot. Following Chair Kevin Warsh’s shift toward a data-dependent, higher-for-longer policy framework, the US Dollar Index broke above a major resistance level, while the euro, pound, gold, and other rate-sensitive assets remained under pressure.
• Global equities are entering a consolidation phase despite improved geopolitical conditions. Wall Street rallied strongly on optimism over a peace deal, but profit-taking emerged in US futures and parts of Asia as traders navigate reduced liquidity ahead of the Juneteenth holiday and reassess the implications of restrictive monetary policy.
• Chart of the day: WTI crude has established a near-term floor at the 200-day moving average. Watch the $75.25/73.40/bbl key near-term support for a potential short-term rebound.

The 10% plunge in the price action of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude oil futures) since the start of this week has reached an inflexion point for a potential near-term rebound.

The decline has begun to stall at the key 200-day moving average, which price has traded above since early February 2026, before the start of the US-Iran war. In addition, the hourly RS momentum has flashed a bullish divergence in its oversold region, suggesting that bearish momentum is starting to wane (see Fig. 1).

Watch the 75.25/73.40 key short-term pivotal support for a potential short-term rebound scenario to unfold towards the next intermediate resistances at 80.75 and 82.98/84.94 (gap down area of Monday, 15 June 2026).

On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 73.40 would invalidate the short-term bullish scenario, extending the bearish impulsive down-move sequence to expose the next support levels at 70.25 and 67.40/66.10.

• Strait of Hormuz reopens as U.S.-Iran peace deal takes effect: The historic U.S.-Iran peace agreement officially went into effect over the past 24 hours, bringing a definitive end to the highly disruptive maritime blockade. Shipping tracking data confirmed that tankers holding nearly 10 million barrels of crude are actively moving through the critical chokepoint, including the first Saudi-owned vessels since the conflict began. In tandem, Kuwait announced plans to swiftly ramp up crude production back toward 2 million barrels per day within the week, severely deflating the geopolitical risk premium.
• Wall Street stages massive 2.5% relief rally ahead of Juneteenth holiday: U.S. stock benchmarks surged on Thursday as geopolitical de-escalation sparked aggressive risk-on buying. The Nasdaq 100 led the charge, soaring 2.5% on secular tech tailwinds and mega-cap momentum. The S&P 500 advanced 1.1% to cap off trading before Friday’s full market closure in observance of the Juneteenth national holiday. In contrast, SpaceX tumbled for the second consecutive session, losing 3.6%, and ended Thursday at $185.00, still above last Friday’s debut closing price of $160.95.
• Crude oil suffers severe liquidation, crashing 10% for the week: Energy markets experienced a massive unwinding of long positions as supply anxieties evaporated. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude plunged below $75 before stabilising at $76.83/bbl, marking its lowest level since the earliest days of the Middle East conflict. Brent crude similarly succumbed to selling pressure, settling firmly under the key $80 threshold at $79.25/bbl as global supply channels normalised.
• Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields remained below last week’s highs: The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by 3 basis points to settle at 4.45%. However, the short end of the curve remains highly inverted and elevated following the surprise “hawkish vibes” from newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the updated dot plot, keeping fixed-income participants structurally on edge. The 2-year US Treasury yield remained steady at 4.18% as it retested its 4-week range top.
• Gold dropped lower to $4,209 on the backdrop of a hawkish Fed: Spot gold prices fell 1.1% to settle near $4,209 an ounce. The precious metal faced a dual headwind from an appreciating U.S. dollar, buoyed by the Fed’s higher-for-longer baseline, and a sharp reduction in safe-haven demand as shipping corridors across the Middle East successfully reopened.

• The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and unwinding of the war premium: The formal implementation of the U.S.-Iran accord has triggered a rapid recalibration of global commodity supply curves. Front-month energy contracts had spent months pricing in a worst-case structural blockade scenario. With tracking data showing immediate, real-time flows of millions of barrels of crude out of the Gulf, the speculative war premium has completely dissolved. This influx of near-term physical supply shifts the energy narrative from structural deficits back to a projected supply expansion heading into the latter half of the year.
• Post-Fed yield Curve flattening under the “Warsh Era”: While the broader market celebrated geopolitical breakthroughs, fixed-income horizons continue to digest the monumental communication shift introduced by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. By eradicating forward guidance and elevating the 2026 core PCE forecast to 3.3%, the Fed has locked in a highly restrictive near-term floor. Thursday’s bond activity reflected a pronounced flattening of the yield curve; long-end yields dipped on peace headlines, but short-term instruments (2-year US Treasury yield) remain rigidly anchored to the reality that rate cuts have been eradicated.
• Holiday liquidity drain and shifting global sessions: With U.S. cash equity and Treasury markets entirely closed today, Friday, June 19, for the Juneteenth holiday, global liquidity is experiencing an abrupt structural drop. Settlement cycles are paused, leaving international sessions in Europe and Asia to digest the massive macro shifts of the past 24 hours without the buffer of Wall Street’s active order book.

Equities: The Nasdaq 100 rallied 2.5% to lead the session, driven by outperformance among mega-cap tech stocks. The S&P 500 gained 1.1% to close out the pre-holiday week on a positive note. Small caps followed the risk-on move, with the Russell 2000 closing up 2.1%, reversing a multi-session downward trend.

However, in today’s Asia opening session, the E-mini futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 declined by 0.5% and 0.7% as US Vice President JP Vance delays trip for Iran talks as the 60-day countdown starts to reach a nuclear agreement and a permanent US-Iran peace deal.

Fixed Income: Sovereign bonds stabilised as long-term inflation risk premiums eased with lower oil prices. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.45% but remains above its 50-day moving average at around 4.40%. Conversely, short-term yields hovered near multi-decade highs, locking the curve in a deep inversion following the FOMC’s hawkish dot plot shift.

FX: The U.S. Dollar Index remained firmly supported near recent highs, underpinned by the Fed’s upgraded economic projections, and broke above the 100.55 major range resistance level, which had been in place since May 2025.

The euro and the British pound extended their losses by 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, for the second consecutive session on Thursday, trading at 3-month lows of 1.1458 and 1.3205 against the greenback.

Commodities: WTI crude plummeted below $74 before recovering slightly to settle near $75.50/bbl, holding right at the key 200-day moving average after a steep 10% decline on the week. Brent crude followed suit, closing under $80.00 at US$79.25/bbl on Thursday. Spot gold slid 1.4 % to close at $4,209 and extended its losses by 1.4% in today’s Asian session to hover close to the 11 June 2026 low of $4,024/oz.

• Profit-taking activities in South Korean stocks after Thursday’s rally towards record highs on semi-tailwinds: KOSPI dropped by 1.2 on Friday, in line with intraday weakness seen in Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures, but the South Korean benchmark index is still up 10% for the week.
• Yen remains wrapped in extreme intervention territory: The Japanese yen weakened towards the 161 handle, hitting an almost 2-year low of 161.81 on Thursday, just a whisker away from 161.95 per US dollar, which was printed on 10 July 2024 and triggered intervention by Japanese authorities. Wide interest-rate differentials, driven by Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish policy stance, ensure that the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance remain on high alert for immediate spot-market smoothing.
• Australian markets dragged down by BHP operational pressures: Defying the broader regional rally, Australia’s ASX 200 opened in negative territory on Friday (-1.1%). The index was dragged down by a sharp 4% drop in BHP shares following unexpected operational constraints at one of its major Canadian production facilities, offsetting regional macro optimism.

1. Germany PPI (May) - 2:00 PM SGT (consensus: 2.5% y/y, Apr: 1.7% y/y) Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAX
2. UK Retail Sales (May) - 2.00 PM SGT (consensus: 1.9% y/y, Apr: 0% y/y) Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FTSE 100
3. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane's Speech - 3.10 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.