Chart alert: Bullish exhaustion signals sighted in Goldman Sachs (GS) ahead of earnings

• Goldman Sachs enters Q2 earnings after significantly outperforming the broader market, with its share price up 19% year-to-date, comfortably beating both the S&P 500 and the S&P Financial sector, leaving expectations elevated ahead of the results.
• Investment banking fees and Global Markets revenue will be the key earnings catalysts, as investors assess whether improving M&A activity, IPO issuance, underwriting, and trading income confirm that Wall Street's capital markets recovery is broadening.
• Macro developments could outweigh company-specific earnings guidance, with today's US CPI report, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony, and renewed Middle East tensions likely to influence trading activity, interest-rate expectations, and investor sentiment.
• Technical indicators point to mounting bullish exhaustion, with bearish RSI divergence, weakening momentum, and repeated failures to reclaim the 20-day moving average, suggesting the risk of a multi-week mean-reversion decline unless Goldman Sachs decisively breaks above the 1,095.90 resistance.

Ahead of today’s Q2 results before the start of the US session, Goldman Sachs is being judged mainly on whether the Wall Street capital markets recovery is broadening enough to justify the stock’s strong rerating.

So far, the year-to-date share price performance of Goldman Sachs (GS) as of Monday, 13 July 2026, has been stellar. It soared by 19%, outperforming the broader-based S&P Financial sector exchange-traded fund (+2.4%) and the S&P 500 (+9.8%) (see Fig. 1).

Consensus expects Q2 EPS of about $14.51 (representing an expected earnings growth of 33% from a year ago over the same period) and revenue of roughly $16.22 billion, according to data compiled by TradingView, with the major U.S. banks broadly expected to post higher year-on-year profits as equity markets, deal activity, and trading conditions improve.

A stronger pickup in M&A, IPO and underwriting activity would reinforce the view that Goldman is entering a more favourable deal-making cycle, while resilient FICC and equities trading revenue could provide an additional earnings boost.

Macro conditions may take centre stage today and act as a near-term tailwind.

Renewed US-Iran tensions, higher oil prices, and broader cross-asset volatility are likely to support client hedging and trading activity across commodities, rates, FX, and equity derivatives. At the same time, today’s US CPI release and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony to Congress could further influence hawkish Fed pricing, potentially lifting activity in rates and macro-related trading products.

However, the same macro forces are not purely bullish. Higher energy prices, sticky inflation, and a more hawkish Fed path could weigh on risk appetite, equity valuations, and corporate confidence, potentially delaying M&A, IPOs, and financing activity. As a result, Goldman’s share price reaction will likely depend on whether stronger trading momentum can offset any signs of softness in capital markets activity.

Let’s now focus on the medium-term technicals of Goldman Sachs (GS).

The recent price action in GS over the past four weeks suggests bullish exhaustion.

Hence, the medium-term (4-month) uptrend phase from the 13 March 2026 low of 780.50 may have reached a terminal/inflexion point at the 18 June 2026 all-time high of 1,125, which increases the odds of a multi-week mean-reversion decline in the first step (see Fig. 2).

The reaction from the medium-term ascending channel top on 18 June 2026 coincided with a bearish divergence condition seen on the daily RSI momentum indicator at its overbought level.

In addition, the daily RSI has been printing a series of “lower highs,” suggesting a lack of upside momentum, and price action has failed to trade above the 20-day moving average.

Watch the 1,095.90 key medium-term pivotal resistance for a potential slide towards 1,000/971.85; below it, a deeper mean-reversion decline may reinforce towards a major support of 905.75 (also the 200-day moving average).

On the flip side, a clearance with a daily close above 1,095.90 invalidates the mean reversion decline scenario for a retest on the 1,125 all-time high before setting sight on the next medium-term resistance at 1,171/197 (Fibonacci extension cluster).