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Markets Today: CME Glitch Halts Trading, German Retail Sales Fall, Ukraine-Russia in Focus, FTSE 100 Back Above 100-day MA
The market's 'Sombre Black Friday' opened with a major CME trading glitch, halting futures and currency markets. German retail sales unexpectedly fell, while French inflation held steady. European stocks and gold are being driven higher by growing bets on a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to support oil prices. FTSE 100 rises above 100-day MA
by Zain Vawda
NZD/USD posts a major reversal higher after the RBNZ Cut – Technical Outlook
FX markets remain open during US Thanksgiving holiday, with the Kiwi Dollar (NZD) stealing the spotlight. After a struggling year, the NZD is surging on a strong Retail Sales beat. RBNZ Governor Hawkesby added fundamental support by stating future rate cuts face "significant hurdles," signaling the 2.25% rate is likely the lower bound. We analyze the NZD/USD pair on multiple timeframes.
by Elior Manier
The Bank of Japan's FX Intervention: Mechanism, Impact, and Historical Precedent
Bank of Japan's FX intervention. Explains the mechanism: MOF sets policy, BoJ executes. Details how interventions are funded (reserves vs. FBs) and their dual channels: Portfolio Balance and Signaling. Discusses why ZIRP limits effectiveness, making Signaling and credibility key. Includes historical precedents (2003-04 JPY-weakening, 2022/2024 JPY-strengthening).
by Zain Vawda
Forex technicals: GBP/JPY nears 15-month peak in rally ; Intervention from the Bank of Japan?
GBP/JPY is getting bought, driven by recent trends for the UK and Japan. PM Takaichi approved a massive $¥21$ trillion stimulus, which paradoxically increases pressure on the BoJ for a rate hike by Dec 18th. Meanwhile, the UK Budget's fiscally conservative stance is boosting the Pound, making it a top performer. If the current rally extends, the pair will target its July 2024 peak. We dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of GBP/JPY.
by Elior Manier
US stocks turn green for the pre-Thanksgiving trading session
U.S. markets are rebounding ahead of the Thanksgiving break, erasing fears from a week of volatility and broken October lows. Overnight trading provided a strong sentiment kicker, but the primary driver expected December Fed rate cut. With volume set to taper off ahead of the holiday closures (closed Thursday, early close Friday), Watch reactions to key US Index levels (6,800 S&P 500, 25,000 Nasdaq and 47,000 DJIA).
by Elior Manier
Silver (XAG/USD) Price Outlook: Failed Breakout and Double-Top hints at Rangebound action
Silver has stalled its gigantic rally after forming a double top, retracing lower to graze the $50 mark. Despite seller pressure, its resilience suggests underlying strength remains, fueled by dovish signals from NY Fed President Williams and weak U.S. data (downside surprises in Retail Sales and ADP). The prospect of gradual rate easing keeps supporting the metal, leading to a new range formation. We dive into a multi-timeframe analysis.
by Elior Manier
Oil falls below $58 as Ukraine agrees to 19-point Peace Plan
Oil (WTI) has taken another hit, falling below the $58 mark, as reports confirm a revised 19-point Russia-Ukraine peace framework has been agreed upon by Kyiv. The agreement is a "living paper," but the imminent hope of a resolution has reduced supply route. Stuck in a downward sequence, we analyze the WTI charts to see how these major geopolitical fundamental swings are impacting price action.
by Elior Manier
UK Budget 2025 Preview: Fiscal Drag, Wealth Tax, and Market Impact on GBP & Gilts
Previewing the Labour government's November 26 UK Budget. Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces a £20–30 billion fiscal hole, compelling the use of "stealth" taxation via fiscal drag and new wealth taxes (Capital Gains Tax, 'mansion tax'). This analysis explores the pressure from the OBR downgrade and the critical market implications for the British Pound (GBP/USD) and UK Gilts.
by Zain Vawda
Markets Today: Rate Cut Bets Surge, FTSE 100 Eyes Retest of 200-day MA, Geopolitics and US Retail Sales in Focus
Global stock markets rise on rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve. Asian shares post modest gains, while European stocks are subdued ahead of key US economic data like producer inflation and retail sales. The report also covers a stable US dollar, falling oil prices, and rising gold prices on "dovish" Fed comments. Geopolitical developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and technical analysis for the FTSE 100 are also discussed.
by Zain Vawda
Dow Jones (DJIA): Outperforming the US mega-cap technology stocks
The Dow Jones remains resilient despite the recent AI-driven tech sell-off, supported by stronger value factors and a re-steepening US yield curve. Intermarket signals highlight potential medium-term outperformance versus the Nasdaq 100. The index is still holding its ascending channel, with key support at 45,650/45,020 and upside targets toward 48,460 and 49,130/49,220.
by Kelvin Wong
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