Chart alert: Intel (INTC) bearish momentum intact below 120.35 as earnings loom

• Intel heads into its Q2 2026 earnings with expectations running high, following a remarkable 172% year-to-date rally, as investors look for confirmation that its AI-driven turnaround can justify its sharp valuation rerating.
• Data Centre and AI revenue, alongside capital expenditure and cash flow, will be the key earnings drivers, with the market seeking evidence that Intel's heavy AI investments are translating into sustainable demand, profitability, and operating leverage.
• Alphabet's post-earnings sell-off highlights the market's growing sensitivity to AI spending, suggesting Intel's forward guidance on capital investment and free cash flow could have a greater impact on its share price than headline EPS or revenue beats.
• Technical indicators continue to favour the bears, with Intel trading below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, a bearish shooting star candlestick, and weakening relative strength against the S&P 500 pointing to the risk of a renewed multi-week corrective decline below the 120.35 resistance.

The share price of one of the major US AI infrastructure players, Intel, has still delivered a stellar year-to-date performance, recording a gain of 172% as of Wednesday, 22 July 2026, after a 37% correction from its current all-time high of 142.35 printed on 30 June 2026

Intel is also ranked number five in year-to-date performance within the S&P 500 as of 22 July 2026 (see Fig. 1).

After the close of today’s 23 July session in the US, Intel will report its Q2 earnings, where traders are treating the print as a high-beta test of whether Intel’s AI-driven turnaround is real enough to justify this year’s sharp rerating.

Consensus is looking for roughly $14.4 billion of Q2 revenue and adjusted EPS of about $0.22, a major improvement from a loss of $0.10 per share and $12.9 billion of revenue a year earlier.

Intel’s own Q2 guidance was $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion of revenue and $0.20 non-GAAP EPS, so the market is already expecting results near the high end of guidance.

The most important operating line is Data Centre and AI (DCAI). Consensus expects DCAI revenue to rise about 42% year on year to $5.6 billion, driven by hyperscaler and enterprise demand for AI infrastructure and custom processors.

MarketWatch separately noted expectations for data-centre revenue growth of around 37.8% to about $5.4 billion, helped by stronger server CPU demand and higher chip prices.

Intel’s turnaround still requires heavy investment. Traders will watch whether management can show operating leverage while funding fabs, advanced nodes and packaging capacity.

The market wants evidence that Intel is spending into real demand, not just burning cash to chase AI relevance.

For example, the share price of Alphabet, the parent company of Google, was punished despite a strong earnings beat, nosediving 4% in after-hours trading on Wednesday, 22 July, following its earnings release.

The primary concern that spooked traders was that Alphabet raised its 2026 capital spending estimate to $195 billion to $205 billion for AI infrastructure, up from a previous estimate of as much as $190 billion, which triggered the company’s first-ever quarter of negative free cash flow.

Let’s now unpack the medium-term outlook (multi-week) of Intel’s share price from a technical analysis perspective.

The recent 18% rebound in Intel (INTC) from last Friday, 17 July 2026, low of 89.59, is showing signs of bullish exhaustion.

Wednesday, 22 July’s price action has formed a daily bearish reversal “Shooting Star” candlestick just right below a moving average bearish crossover condition (20-day below 50-day) (see Fig. 2).

In addition, the volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of the Intel (INTC)/S&P 500 (SPY) ratio has deteriorated significantly since 7 July 2026, as it broke below a major ascending trendline support dating back to 8 August 2025, accompanied by a corresponding downward-sloping 50-day moving average of the VARS.

These observations suggest that Intel's prior outperformance over the S&P 500 is losing momentum, and that Intel may be on the brink of underperforming over a multi-week perspective.

Watch the 120.35 key medium-term resistance on INTC, and a break below 89.59 intermediate support may reinforce the multi-corrective decline sequence towards the 68.85 medium-term support (also coincides with the key 200-day moving average) in the first step.

On the other hand, a daily close above 120.35 invalidates the bearish tone, paving the way for a bullish revival to retest the current all-time area of 141.45 before the next medium-term resistance comes in at 175.20 (Fibonacci extension).