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Markets Weekly Outlook – Moving forward from NFP, onto Inflation week
A week ahead preview: After this week's huge NFP report, the puzzle for the upcoming 17th Sep FOMC Meeting is still missing its inflation pieces, coming up with the ECB Rate Decision. Get ready for the upcoming week by looking at the past week's Market performance, what changed and the key events to expect in next week (including the infamous NFP report, all eyes are on this).
by Elior Manier
WTI Oil Rallies 1.8% as Russian Supply Concerns Outweigh Modest OPEC + Output Hike
Oil prices gained 1.8% as Russian supply concerns outweighed a modest OPEC+ output hike. Goldman Sachs forecasts a slight oil surplus in 2026. OPEC+ will gradually reverse production cuts, increasing output by 137,000 bpd from October. Saudi Arabia is leveraging its spare capacity to gain market share. Technical analysis shows WTI eyeing recovery, but fundamentals may limit sustained gains. Client sentiment is net-long.
by Zain Vawda
Nikkei 225 Technical: Bullish trend remains intact despite Japan’s PM resignation
The Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy for Nikkei 225 futures) staged a bullish reversal after testing key support at 41,760 on 2 Sept, rallying 3.6% to 43,203 and extending gains to 43,850 in today’s Asia session, near its all-time high. Momentum was boosted by PM Ishiba’s resignation, with contenders favoring fiscal stimulus. Technicals remain bullish above 43,060/42,850, targeting 44,050/44,110 and 44,840/44,970.
by Kelvin Wong
US Indices technicals as they open higher despite the miss in NFP – Cuts pricing boost stocks but sellers appear
US Indices are opening higher despite a sharp NFP miss (22K vs 75K expected) and downward revisions. While the weak data paints a bleak labor picture, stocks find support in renewed Fed cut bets, with 75 bps now priced for 2025. As the Fed enters blackout, market focus shifts to Timiraos’ hints on the September decision. Levels for Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
by Elior Manier
GBP/USD Technical: Corrective decline ended, potential bullish reversal in progress for sterling as NFP looms
GBP/USD has completed its expected -1.9% corrective slide, bottoming at 1.3333 on 3 September, just above the 1.3315/1.3280 key medium-term support. Price action now signals a potential short-term bullish reversal, with bias above 1.3395 for a move toward 1.3545 and 1.3650. Strengthening UK gilt–US Treasury yield spreads further support sterling’s upside, ahead of today’s US non-farm payrolls release.
by Kelvin Wong
Hang Seng Index Technical: Recent sell-off overdone, bullish trend remains intact
The Hong Kong 33 CFD Index (proxy for Hang Seng futures) fulfilled its bullish run from 13–25 Aug, peaking at 25,946 before entering a brief -4.3% correction. With fundamentals improving, China’s EPS growth recovering, and PMIs back in expansion, deflation risks have eased, supporting equities. Technically, a fresh bullish phase may be underway above 24,880 support, with upside targets at 25,690–26,120.
by Kelvin Wong
US Indices all regain their recent tops as fears for tomorrow's data abate – Key levels for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq ahead of the NFP
Levels for Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq ahead of tomorrow’s NFP: US data offered relief with ADP near forecasts, tame labor costs, steady jobless claims and a Services PMI beat. Equities reclaimed recent highs, while markets weigh Fed rate cut odds at the September 17 meeting. The upcoming payrolls release will be the true test for momentum.
by Elior Manier
NFP Preview: US Jobs Report & Implications for the DXY, Gold (XAU/USD) & Dow Jones (DJIA)
Discover what to expect from the US Jobs Report (NFP) and its potential impact on the DXY, Gold (XAU/USD), and Dow Jones (DJIA). The report is crucial for the US job market and the Fed's policy path, with job growth slowing and unemployment rising. A weak report could solidify the case for a Fed rate cut, boosting stocks and gold, while the Fed faces a dilemma between faltering job creation and persistent wage growth.
by Zain Vawda
Markets Already Looking to NFP
Markets are watching August NFP, with a baseline of +74k and unemployment rising to 4.3% from 4.2%. July’s +73k and -258k revisions intensified political pressure on the BLS. Cooling labour demand—Job Switchers wage growth at 4.3% y/y and NFIB reporting easier hiring—supports a 17 Sep Fed cut. Upside surprises or data-quality doubts could curb dovish pricing and keep volatility high.
by Łukasz Zembik
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