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SPX 500 Technical: Yesterday’s sell-off reached an inflection zone for potential bullish reversal
The S&P 500 trimmed steep early losses on 2 Sept after fears of a UK gilt-driven liquidity squeeze, closing –0.7%. A dovish Fed pivot is increasingly priced in, with Fed Funds futures assigning a 91% chance of a September rate cut. US Treasury yield curve bull steepening signals liquidity support, while technicals show the SPX 500 holding key support at 6,370/6,350, suggesting potential for a short-term bullish reversal.
by Kelvin Wong
Why are government bond yields rising so much as of late?
An explanation on why government yields are rising so much, amid the most recent run in the UK Gilts (government bonds). It is essential to understand why higher government debt forces higher yields. Check the few charts to spot these dynamics, and a good resume of what is happening in our economies. Also, a too long didn't read summary available in case.
by Elior Manier
US Dollar strengthens after Labor Day – DXY technical outlook
After a quiet Labor Day week, volatility returns as traders reassess Powell’s dovish shift and looming Fed cuts. The US Dollar holds firm while equities and crypto falter. Rising geopolitical tensions and a fresh UK Gilt selloff weigh on sentiment, leaving markets on edge ahead of September’s FOMC and Friday's NFP. Discover key technical levels for the USD.
by Elior Manier
GBP/USD Technical: Sterling torpedoed by spike in 30-year gilt yield, watch the 1.3315/3280 key support
Sterling tumbled, losing 1.2% intraday against the dollar and ranking as the weakest major currency as of 2 September, with USD/GBP up 1.1%. The 30-year UK gilt yield surged 6 bps to 5.69%, its highest since 1998, as concerns over rising UK debt widened the risk premium. Drawing parallels with the 2022 gilt crisis, GBP/USD remains bearish below 1.3460, with supports eyed at 1.3370 and 1.3315/1.3280.
by Kelvin Wong
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Bullish acceleration supported rising implied volatility
Gold (XAU/USD) has broken above its four-month range resistance at US$3,435, closing at US$3,447 on 29 Aug and extending gains to US$3,476 on 1 Sep. Supported by rising implied volatility (GVZ) and bullish MACD signals, the yellow metal has entered a potential acceleration phase. A break above US$3,500 could open the way toward US$3,520–3,548, while US$3,451 remains the key short-term support.
by Kelvin Wong
EUR/USD Technical: Euro on the brink of a medium-term bullish breakout
EUR/USD is on the brink of a medium-term bullish breakout after a 1.6% rally to 1.1730 in mid-August. Price action has reclaimed the 20- and 50-day moving averages, while momentum remains supported above trendline levels. A bullish bias holds above 1.1650, with potential targets at 1.1770/1790 and 1.1830. Meanwhile, narrowing US–German 2Y yield spreads continue to weigh on the dollar, reinforcing euro strength.
by Kelvin Wong
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