Top News and Analysis

Safe Havens Gain Favor Amid Geopolitical Tensions and US Election Uncertainty, Gold Above $2400/oz, DXY Slips

Increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and US election uncertainty have caused a rise in safe-haven demand, particularly for Gold. The US Dollar has weakened due to concerns about a potential Kamala Harris presidency and its implications on the economy. Market sentiment is expected to be driven by US election developments and geopolitical issues in the first half of the week.

22-07-2024 04:20 GMT by Zain Vawda

Weekly Market Outlook: US PCE, GDP, and Earnings Expected to Drive Volatility

This week, markets were influenced by trade war fears, US political developments, and a global cyber outage. In Asia, the Japanese yen weakened, and Chinese authorities remained silent on economic goals despite weak data. Next week, US PCE and GDP data, along with Euro Area and UK PMI data, and potential Chinese economic measures will be key drivers of market volatility. The Nasdaq 100's weekly chart shows a potential evening star candlestick pattern, hinting at further downside. Read More: JPY

19-07-2024 11:53 GMT by Zain Vawda

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Soars Amidst Surging ETF Inflows

Increased investor confidence fueled by a $1.04 billion inflow into Bitcoin Spot ETFs. Bitcoin miners, particularly in the US, are accumulating Bitcoin in anticipation of another potential rally, with Marathon Digital Holdings aiming to significantly increase its hashrate. Technically, Bitcoin's breakout above a long-term descending trendline suggests further upside potential. Most Read: Oil Price Update – Oil Prices Hold Firm as Chinese Demand Concerns Rise

15-07-2024 11:43 GMT by Zain Vawda

USD/CAD stalls after Canadian PMI data and Fed Chair Powell's remarks. Where to next?

USD/CAD is rangebound, frustrating traders, thanks to a host of factors from rate differentials to rising oil prices. Canadian PMI data has been softer than expected, with decreased output, new orders, and employment. Stronger oil prices have kept the Canadian dollar supported of late.

02-07-2024 13:05 GMT by Zain Vawda

EUR/USD Price Action - Technical Analysis

EURUSD continues its attempt to reverse back above the 1.1000 level but has been unsuccessful so far, the current trading range is critical, and any real breakout may help in forecasting future price action, we will go over a long-term as well as a short-term timeframe reflecting the current price action. Talking Points Weekly Chart - Longer Term Patterns overview 1-Hour Chart - Short Term and current price action Weekly Chart Price continues to trade below its ascending channel as identif

09-01-2024 10:08 GMT by Moheb Hanna

AUD/JPY Technical Analysis Overview - FX Pairs to Watch

Talking Points Weekly Chart Technical Analysis Short Term formation before Non-Farm Payroll Weekly Chart Price was trading within an uptrend that began mid-year 2020 and may still be in place, however, the trend acceleration pace slowed once the FED began raising Interest Rates in early 2022, and price action continued sideways failing to make new highs since then. Price found resistance multiple times near the RED Resistance line identified on the above weekly chart near level 98.00 The ov

05-01-2024 00:21 GMT by Moheb Hanna

EUR/USD: Dollar softens as Treasury yields slide

Dollar falls four out of five days to euro as 10-year Treasury drops 14.8bps to 4.655% Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q3 rose from 4.9% to 5.1% Treasury 3-year auction sees lowest bit-to-cover since February; 2.50 v 2.75 prior Fed speak remains dovish; Waller refrains from commenting on near-term interest rate outlook The dollar is declining and US stocks are rallying after a steady dose of dovish Fed speak has traders convinced rate hikes are over. Also providing a boost to sentiment is the r

10-10-2023 15:22 GMT by Edward Moya

Dollar dips after SLOOS signals tightening lending standards across all categories

4.8% of Large & Mid-market firms in July say conditions tightened considerably, up from 3.2% in April. Commercial and Industrial loans for medium and large firms saw an increase in tightening terms (50.8% vs 46% prior) Fed rate cut odds for the December 13th meeting remained around 17.5% The Fed July Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOOS) on Bank Lending Practices highlighted a that tightening lending standards occurred across all categories. The impact from the Fed's tightening cycle is clearly i

31-07-2023 14:33 GMT by Edward Moya

A reversal of fortunes for US banks and technology stocks

Prior underperforming US banks rallied last week where the SPDR Banks ETF rose by 6.76%, its best weekly gain seen in 14 months. The high growth technology concentrated Nasdaq 100, the top year-to-date performer, underperformed last week, dragged down by Tesla and Netflix ex-post earnings releases. Extreme positioning, and complacency bias in Nasdaq 100 increase the risk of a medium-term bearish reversal in technology stocks. In the past two weeks, we have seen the latest Q2 earnings releases o

24-07-2023 00:45 GMT by Kelvin Wong

China’s proxy stock market rallied, hawkish pause for RBA

US-China geopolitical tension remains on heat after the latest China exports curb on key metals for semiconductor chip production. China’s proxy stock market; Hang Seng benchmark stock indices rallied to a 5-day high. RBA left its policy cash rate unchanged at 4.10%, a pause after two consecutive interest rate hikes but hinted in its monetary policy statement is tilted towards a hawkish pause. Actions speak louder than words in geopolitics In the past two weeks, we have witnessed key officials

04-07-2023 02:00 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/USD Technical: Positive momentum ahead of RBA

AUD/USD rallied by 97 pips from last Thursday, 29 June low of 0.6593. Staged a minor bullish breakout ahead of RBA’s monetary policy decision today. Watch 0.6630 key short-term support to maintain the current bullish tone. Since its 0.6593 minor low printed last Thursday, 29 June, the AUD/USD has managed to stage a rebound of 97 pips to print an intraday high of 0.6692 yesterday, 3 July ahead of Australia central bank, RBA’s monetary policy decision out later today at 0430 GMT. The interest ra

03-07-2023 21:33 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/JPY Technical: 142.25 resistance met with bullish exhaustion

The rally of USD/JPY has reached 142.25/142.50 key medium-term resistance ex-post BoJ monetary policy decision last Friday. Latest Commitments of Traders report on JPY futures on net large speculators’ open bearish positioning has reached close to a 3-year extreme. The next key related event will be the release of Japan’s nationwide inflation data for May on this Friday, 23 June. This is a follow-up analysis from our earlier publication dated 15 June 2023, “USD/JPY Technical: Bullish breakout f

20-06-2023 01:19 GMT by Kelvin Wong

China’s deflationary spiral bumps up FX risk aversion

China’s NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs for May have increased the risk of a deflationary spiral in China. A weaker Chinese yuan may be required to counter and smooth the adverse effects of the deflationary spiral at least in the short-term. Risk aversion has resurfaced in the FX market via weakness seen in the G-10 JPY crosses. In stark contrast to the recent findings of China’s manufacturing sector survey done by China Beige Book, a US-based data provider that has indicated a reb

31-05-2023 02:08 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Tokyo core-core CPI continues to accelerate with USD/JPY now below key 141.00

Tokyo core-core CPI (excluding fresh food & energy) accelerated to a 31-year high BoJ’s latest guidance from Governor Ueda is no longer making wage growth as a main priority, raising the possibility of a monetary policy normalization in H2 2023. The 5-month rally of USD/JPY is now coming close to key short-term resistance at 141.00. This week’s latest release of key leading economic data out of Japan has indicated signs of sustained inflationary growth

26-05-2023 04:14 GMT by Kelvin Wong

NZD/USD: RBNZ less hawkish tilt reinforces USD bulls

RBNZ hiked its official cash rate as expected by 25 bps to 5.50% It is the first time RB NZ’s monetary policy-setting committee went to a vote today. Split vote of 5 to 2 has indicated a high probability 5.50% is the terminal rate after today’s hike. USD bulls are playing catch-up against prior NZD’s outperformance. The New Zealand dollar, NZD is the weakest currency against the US dollar in today’s Asian session as it tumbled by -1.10% at this time of the writing reinforced by post-RBNZ, the

24-05-2023 01:22 GMT by Kelvin Wong

DJIA Technical: Capped below the 20-day moving average

Since its 1 December 2022 high, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has evolved into a major “Expanding Wedge” range configuration. In the short-term, no clear signs of upside momentum as its price actions are being capped below the 20-day moving average. Key short-term resistance to watch will be at 33,580. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is one of the underperforming major US stock indices together with the Russell 2000 so far with a recent weekly loss of -1.11% for the week of 8 May and

15-05-2023 06:26 GMT by Kelvin Wong

SP 500: Ignoring US debt ceiling standoff risk

US debt ceiling limit of US$31.4 trillion may be reached on 1 June. Prior movement of implied bond market volatility during the 2011 US debt ceiling standoff provided a leading indicator for the uptick in US stock market volatility. Given the current loop-sided performance among the major US benchmark stock indices, the downside adjustment to offset the relatively low level of the VIX may be significant. The US debt ceiling limit is now getting closer to hitting the US$31.4 trillion cap that wa

15-05-2023 02:51 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Nasdaq 100: Bulls may be too optimistic on US CPI

Nasdaq 100 continued to outperform against S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average & Russell 2000. The K-shaped performance has widened between Nasdaq 100 & the laggards. US sticky-price inflation for April remains elevated with a risk of a further increase in global food prices. The US stock market on the aggregate rejoiced yesterday after the release of the US inflation data for April and the S&P 500 erased its earlier losses inflicted in the first half of this week. The headline US consumer p

11-05-2023 02:22 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Nikkei 225: Bulls are showing signs of resilience

Japanese stock market has continued to outperform against the rest of the world. Positive earnings momentum from Japanese corporations is providing support. BoJ Governor Ueda has sounded optimistic about the current upward inflationary trend in Japan. The Japanese stock market has continued to show resilience despite the current heightened risk of global stagflation and rising geopolitical tensions.

09-05-2023 02:56 GMT by Kelvin Wong

JPY bearish positioning is getting overstretched

Better than expected US non-farm payrolls for April have failed to ignite US dollar bulls. Two outliers; the safe haven currencies, CHF and JPY underperformed against the US dollar due to the resurgence of risk-on behaviour in the US stock market. JPY future’s bearish positioning has highlighted a risk of a short-term revival of JPY’s strength. Last Friday, the better-than-expected US official non-farm payrolls data (labour market) for April failed to trigger a meaningful rally in the US dollar

08-05-2023 01:49 GMT by Kelvin Wong