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US Indices all regain their recent tops as fears for tomorrow's data abate – Key levels for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq ahead of the NFP
Levels for Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq ahead of tomorrow’s NFP: US data offered relief with ADP near forecasts, tame labor costs, steady jobless claims and a Services PMI beat. Equities reclaimed recent highs, while markets weigh Fed rate cut odds at the September 17 meeting. The upcoming payrolls release will be the true test for momentum.
by Elior Manier
NFP Preview: US Jobs Report & Implications for the DXY, Gold (XAU/USD) & Dow Jones (DJIA)
Discover what to expect from the US Jobs Report (NFP) and its potential impact on the DXY, Gold (XAU/USD), and Dow Jones (DJIA). The report is crucial for the US job market and the Fed's policy path, with job growth slowing and unemployment rising. A weak report could solidify the case for a Fed rate cut, boosting stocks and gold, while the Fed faces a dilemma between faltering job creation and persistent wage growth.
by Zain Vawda
Markets Already Looking to NFP
Markets are watching August NFP, with a baseline of +74k and unemployment rising to 4.3% from 4.2%. July’s +73k and -258k revisions intensified political pressure on the BLS. Cooling labour demand—Job Switchers wage growth at 4.3% y/y and NFIB reporting easier hiring—supports a 17 Sep Fed cut. Upside surprises or data-quality doubts could curb dovish pricing and keep volatility high.
by Łukasz Zembik
USD/CHF Technical: Potential Swiss franc bullish range breakout as NFP looms
The USD/CHF remains in a narrowing range ahead of Friday’s US NFP release, with risk building for a bearish breakout. Meanwhile, signs of stabilization in Swiss data, manufacturing PMI at 49.0, and services PMI rebounding from a five-year low, suggest the SNB’s aggressive rate-cut cycle may be ending. With yield spreads between US Treasuries and Swiss bonds narrowing, downside pressure on USD/CHF is likely to persist.
by Kelvin Wong
SPX 500 Technical: Yesterday’s sell-off reached an inflection zone for potential bullish reversal
The S&P 500 trimmed steep early losses on 2 Sept after fears of a UK gilt-driven liquidity squeeze, closing –0.7%. A dovish Fed pivot is increasingly priced in, with Fed Funds futures assigning a 91% chance of a September rate cut. US Treasury yield curve bull steepening signals liquidity support, while technicals show the SPX 500 holding key support at 6,370/6,350, suggesting potential for a short-term bullish reversal.
by Kelvin Wong
Why are government bond yields rising so much as of late?
An explanation on why government yields are rising so much, amid the most recent run in the UK Gilts (government bonds). It is essential to understand why higher government debt forces higher yields. Check the few charts to spot these dynamics, and a good resume of what is happening in our economies. Also, a too long didn't read summary available in case.
by Elior Manier
US Dollar strengthens after Labor Day – DXY technical outlook
After a quiet Labor Day week, volatility returns as traders reassess Powell’s dovish shift and looming Fed cuts. The US Dollar holds firm while equities and crypto falter. Rising geopolitical tensions and a fresh UK Gilt selloff weigh on sentiment, leaving markets on edge ahead of September’s FOMC and Friday's NFP. Discover key technical levels for the USD.
by Elior Manier
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