ECB likely to hold rates at a 2% deposit; markets price no move. Inflation is nearer target and expectations ticked up to 2.5%, so the path may be revised slightly higher on energy. Activity is improving—composite PMI 51.0 and manufacturing above 50—signaling modest recovery. Q3 GDP may be nudged up; core inflation still converging to 2%. Baseline: keep policy on hold this year while monitoring data.
10-09-2025 11:07 GMT
by Łukasz Zembik