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Forex: all news & analysis

Explore our comprehensive Forex Archive, an essential resource that provides expert insights on price movements, trends, and the currency market. By analysing past price actions and key events, you can uncover vital market dynamics and elevate your understanding of effective trading strategies. Whether you're focusing on major currency pairs or emerging markets, our archive is packed with information to help you sharpen your trading decisions.

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Fed and ECB: a pause before further tightening
The Fed and ECB are likely to pause in October before potentially raising rates in December. Persistent inflation and resilient growth favour further tightening, but French debt tensions could constrain the ECB. Lower energy prices and elevated bond yields may reduce the need for additional hikes next year.
23-10-2026 10:43 GMT by Łukasz Zembik
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XAU/USD Technical & Macro Outlook: October 2026
This article provides a technical and macroeconomic outlook for XAU/USD (Gold) as of October 2026. It analyzes the interplay between hawkish central bank expectations—driven by persistent U.S. inflation (3.7% CPI)—and gold’s long-term bullish technical structure. Highlights include FedWatch interest rate probabilities, key technical levels (support at 4,000–4,120, resistance at 4,260–4,408), a bullish flag pattern within a broader uptrend, and recent COT sentiment data.
20-10-2026 01:54 GMT by Moheb Hanna
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US Dollar strengthens as Fed rate hike fears grow
The US dollar remains resilient despite weakening consumer sentiment and growing concerns about the US economic outlook. Rising inflation expectations, elevated Treasury yields, and expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes continue to support the USD. Explore the latest economic data, changing Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and what these developments could mean for the USD in the coming weeks.
09-10-2026 16:39 GMT by Krzysztof Kamiński
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US: Softer jobs data strengthen the case for a Fed pause
US payrolls rose by just 29,000 in September, while revisions cut July and August employment by a combined 60,000. Unemployment increased to 4.2% and annual wage growth slowed to 3.0%. The report strengthens the case for an October Fed pause, potentially weighing on the dollar and Treasury yields while supporting gold.
02-10-2026 16:00 GMT by Łukasz Zembik
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Geopolitics, inflation and central banks set the direction for markets
Middle East tensions and energy prices remain central to the market outlook. The US economy is supported by AI investment, while China faces weak domestic demand. Inflation may keep the Fed and ECB cautious. Bond yields could ease temporarily if energy prices fall, while longer-term fiscal pressures remain. Political risks may gradually weigh on the dollar.
25-09-2026 15:20 GMT by Łukasz Zembik
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Trump-Xi summit: five issues to watch and the trading playbook
The 24 September Trump–Xi meeting could set the next direction for global risk sentiment as markets await an extension of the US–China trade truce, targeted tariff cuts and agricultural purchases. This trading playbook highlights five assets most exposed to the outcome: USD/CNH, Hang Seng Tech, AUD/USD, the Nasdaq 100, and Singapore’s STI, and explains how traders can position for a deal, disappointment, or a sell-the-fact reversal.
22-09-2026 10:18 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Chart alert: USD/JPY tests 156.13/50 resistance as hawkish Fed raises the bar for BoJ
USD/JPY has surged towards the key 156.13/50 resistance zone after a hawkish Fed rate hike reinforced the US dollar's yield advantage. Attention now turns to Japan CPI and the BoJ, where an expected hike to 1.25% may not be enough to strengthen the yen unless Governor Ueda signals further tightening. Technically, bearish RSI divergence raises reversal risk, with 155.45 acting as the key downside trigger.
17-09-2026 09:32 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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United Kingdom: The Bank of England faces a difficult choice
UK inflation accelerated to 2.9% in August, while core and services inflation remained stable. The data support keeping interest rates unchanged tomorrow but do not eliminate the risk of future tightening. With wage growth slowing and the labour market weakening, the four rate hikes currently priced in by markets still appear too aggressive.
16-09-2026 13:40 GMT by Łukasz Zembik
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Chart alert: EUR/USD minor uptrend intact ahead of ECB as markets brace for 25bp rate hike
EUR/USD holds near a two-week high around 1.1640 ahead of the ECB monetary policy decision, with markets expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike to 2.50%. Attention is on Christine Lagarde's guidance as surging energy prices revive inflation risks and raise the possibility of further tightening. Technically, EUR/USD has moved back above its 200-day MA, with 1.1604 acting as the key short-term support.
10-09-2026 10:25 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Global forex shifts: Yen carry trade unwinds amid policy divergence.
This report analyzes the global forex market realignments driven by policy divergence between the Federal Reserve’s ‘higher-for-longer’ stance and the Bank of Japan’s pivot from ultra-low rates. It examines US rate expectations via CME FedWatch, Japan’s global funding role, and the rapid unwinding of yen carry trades, which triggered intense volatility across the USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and AUD/JPY crosses, while outlining the critical impact of official government interventions.
06-09-2026 20:25 GMT by Moheb Hanna
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Yen’s Appreciation Potential May Be Running Out
The yen’s medium-term outlook remains constructive, but much of the expected Bank of Japan tightening may already be priced in. With weak consumption limiting the scope for aggressive rate hikes, USD/JPY may consolidate near 155 unless the BoJ or Japan’s GPIF provides a fresh catalyst.
04-09-2026 13:29 GMT by Łukasz Zembik
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Chart alert: USD/JPY major bearish reversal below 200-day MA
USD/JPY has staged a major bearish reversal, breaking below its 200-day moving average as the Japanese yen strengthens sharply. Support from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for Japanese action, hawkish BoJ commentary and renewed FX intervention risk have reinforced the move. USD/JPY may see an oversold bounce, but failure to reclaim 158.04/50 could expose 155.03 and 153.84 as the next downside targets.
03-09-2026 10:42 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Gold awaits Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech
Gold is undergoing a shallow correction ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. A neutral stance on easing financial conditions could support another test of USD 4,775 and USD 4,890 per ounce. A hawkish message, however, could revive expectations of a September rate hike, strengthen the dollar and trigger a deeper pullback.
27-08-2026 11:05 GMT by Łukasz Zembik
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PCE price index preview & EUR/USD technical analysis
The upcoming PCE Price Index report, scheduled for release on Wednesday, August 26, is a pivotal indicator for Federal Reserve monetary policy. This article examines consensus expectations for headline and core PCE inflation, along with an overview of the associated personal income, spending, and savings data. Additionally, it provides a detailed technical analysis of EUR/USD, discussing recent breakout patterns, key support and resistance levels, and momentum following dovish FOMC minutes.
25-08-2026 22:16 GMT by Moheb Hanna
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FX markets and central banks Overview - USD/CAD - AUD/USD
During the week of August 17–21, 2026, major currency pairs rallied against the U.S. dollar amid shifting monetary policy expectations. While accelerated Canadian inflation bolstered the CAD and a cooling job market complicated the RBA’s outlook in Australia, markets looked past hawkish FOMC minutes to price in upcoming Fed rate cuts, driving broad gains led by NZD and AUD.
22-08-2026 00:18 GMT by Moheb Hanna
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Treasury Intervention Puts the Dollar Under Pressure
A sharp rise in US Treasury yields dominated the week before the Treasury Department expanded its long-term bond buyback programme. The move improved market liquidity and briefly reduced borrowing costs, but also weakened the dollar. With oil prices elevated and US debt exceeding USD40 trillion, investors are questioning whether Washington is becoming more willing to tolerate currency depreciation in order to stabilise the bond market.
21-08-2026 12:37 GMT by Łukasz Zembik
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FOMC minutes, Canadian inflation data, and USD/CAD technical analysis
This report provides a financial analysis for the week of August 17, 2026. It covers market expectations ahead of the July FOMC minutes, noting the debate between inflation risks and a cooling labor market. It also examines Canada’s latest CPI data, highlighting that headline inflation reached 3.0% while core metrics remain steady. Finally, the report includes a USD/CAD daily chart analysis, noting current technical support levels and oversold conditions indicated by the RSI at 29.24.
18-08-2026 12:20 GMT by Moheb Hanna
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Chart alert: GBP/USD remains firm above 1.3479 ahead of US CPI
GBP/USD remains firm ahead of the US CPI release after breaking above a key medium-term descending trendline following last Friday’s US NFP. Sterling’s near-term bullish momentum remains intact above the 1.3479 pivotal support, with upside targets at 1.3547, 1.3580 and 1.3643. A hotter-than-expected US core CPI could revive Fed rate-hike expectations and US dollar strength, while softer inflation may reinforce GBP/USD’s bullish breakout.
12-08-2026 11:09 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Dollar faces a tougher period as Fed expectations may shift
The dollar remains supported by relatively hawkish Fed expectations, but this advantage may weaken. A US-Iran de-escalation could lower energy prices and inflation risks, reducing the case for further US tightening. If markets begin to price a softer Fed policy path, the dollar could come under pressure and EUR/USD could gradually move higher.
07-08-2026 15:05 GMT by Łukasz Zembik
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