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Markets Weekly Outlook - Tesla, Netflix Earnings, US CPI and China's Five-Year Plan in Focus as US-China Tensions Simmer

US-China tensions, Gold's wild ride, and banking sector concerns that weighed on equities despite strong fund inflows. Look ahead to a packed week featuring key earnings from Tesla and Netflix, the must-watch US CPI inflation report, and China's pivotal Fourth Plenum meetings to define its next Five-Year Plan. Plus, a technical breakdown of the US Dollar Index (DXY) after breaking a three-day losing streak.

17-10-2025 22:05 GMT by Zain Vawda

USD/JPY: US-Japan yield spread breakdown signals further yen strength ahead in the near term

The USD/JPY lost bullish steam after peaking at 153.28 on 10 October, sliding 2.2% to 149.90 as U.S. dollar momentum faded. Political uncertainty over Japan’s LDP leadership and a breakdown in the 10-year U.S.-Japan sovereign yield spread below 2.47% reinforced yen strength. A failed bullish breakout above 150.50 signals downside risks, with near-term support at 149.05–148.55.

17-10-2025 10:12 GMT by Kelvin Wong

EUR/USD: Recent euro weakness stalled at 1.1530 key medium-term support with a minor “Double Bottom” bullish breakout

EUR/USD’s recent decline has likely found support, with the pair rebounding from 1.1530 — a key medium-term level, after forming a minor “Double Bottom” bullish breakout. Despite political instability in France and a temporary rise in Eurozone sovereign risk premia, improving stability and narrowing sovereign yield spreads (French/German) suggest renewed euro strength. Technically, EUR/USD remains in an “Ascending Triangle” formation, reinforcing the medium-term bullish trend since January 2025.

16-10-2025 04:40 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Hang Seng Index: At inflection zone for bullish reversal, medium-term uptrend intact

The Hang Seng Index is approaching an inflection zone for a potential bullish reversal, with its medium-term uptrend intact. Despite a 9% pullback on renewed US-China trade tensions, improving China inflation data, led by rising core CPI and easing PPI declines, has reduced deflation risks. Technically, the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index holds above key support at 25,140, with bullish momentum targeting 26,935 and 27,500.

15-10-2025 06:31 GMT by Kelvin Wong

JPMorgan (JPM) bullish reversal from 5% decline at key support as Q3 earnings loom

JPMorgan (JPM) experienced a bullish reversal from a 5% decline at key support as Q3 earnings loom. The company’s share price rebounded 2.4% after a brief correction from its record high, finding support near its 50-day moving average. The stock’s technicals suggest renewed bullish momentum ahead of its Q3 earnings release, where EPS is expected to rise 10% year-on-year, reinforcing strength in the broader Financials sector.

14-10-2025 05:54 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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US September ISM Services PMI miss expectations – Market reactions

The US ISM Services PMI came in at 50.0 vs 51.6 expected, missing consensus and sliding from 52.0 prior. The weak print signals slowing momentum in the largest sector of the economy and raises questions about the durability of US growth. The USD eased on the release. Equities, Treasuries, and gold post-data reactions.

03-10-2025 14:07 GMT by Elior Manier

US JOLTS (Job Openings) beat expectations – Market reactions

The US JOLTS Job Openings report came in at 7.227M vs 7.190M expected, a small beat that points to resilient labor demand. The uptick from 7.184M prior eases fears of deterioration and trims 2026 cut expectations. The USD firmed on the release. Equities, Treasuries, and EURUSD post-data reactions.

30-09-2025 14:18 GMT by Elior Manier

US Home Sales explode ! Monday news recap for US markets and economy

US Pending Home Sales surged 4% vs 0.4% expected, reducing rate-cut hopes. While equities stay resilient—Nasdaq pushing toward record highs—gold extended its rally to $3,831. The dollar, meanwhile, is under pressure near the 98.00 handle, weighed by tariff rumors and looming US shutdown risks.

29-09-2025 14:12 GMT by Elior Manier

Tokyo Core CPI remains unchanged, US PCE Index ticks higher, yen stabilizes

Tokyo Core CPI remained unchanged at 2.5% y/y, lower than the market estimate. In the US, the PCE Price Index ticked higher to 2.7% from 2.6%, matching the market estimate.

26-09-2025 12:40 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Breaking News: US core PCE inflation rises by 2.9% Y/Y in August vs 2.9% expected

US core PCE rises by 2.9% YoY in August, up 0.2% MoM. The report broadly meets expectations with PCE numbers all meeting consensus, while personal income and spending came in marginally higher.

26-09-2025 12:31 GMT by Christian Norman

Canadian dollar eyes Canada's GDP, US PCE Price Index next

Canada releases July GDP, with the markets expecting a small gain of 0.1%. The US releases the PCE Price index, which is expected to tick higher in August.

26-09-2025 10:15 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Swiss National Bank maintains interest rates, US GDP revised higher,Swiss franc slips

The SNB maintained rates at zero for a second straight meeting. The central bank said inflation was steady but was concerned about global growth and the impact of US tariffs on the Swiss economy. US third-estimate GDP climbed to 3.8%, up from 3.3% in the second estimate and higher than the consensus of 3.3%.

25-09-2025 17:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

RBA's Bullock says inflation under control, Aussie steady

RBA Governor Bullock testified before lawmakers, saying that inflation was a in a good position but the Trump tariffs were a serious concern. In the US, there are five FOMC members delivering public comments and investors will be looking for clues about the Fed's rate path.

22-09-2025 09:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Markets Weekly Outlook - PMI and PCE in the Spotlight as US Dollar Remains Sensitive to US Labor Data

Weekly market outlook: Fed's rate cut, US Dollar sensitivity to labor data, upcoming PMI and PCE figures, and a technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD). Key global economic events and forecasts for the week ahead are also discussed.

19-09-2025 20:15 GMT by Zain Vawda

Canada's retail sales slips, Canadian dollar edges higher

Canada's retail sales slipped 0.8% m/m in July but the preliminary estimate for August indicates a gain of 1%. US unemployment claims fell to 231 thousand after the previous release hit 264 thousand, which had raised concerns about the cooling US job market.

19-09-2025 13:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

BoJ holds rates, yen gives up gains

The Bank of Japan maintaine rates at 0.5% as expected. However, the split 7-2 vote was a surprise. The yen posted gains earlier but was unable to consolidate.

19-09-2025 11:13 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Bank of England holds rates, British Pound slips

The BoE didn't surprise and held rates at 4% at today's meeting. Governor Bailey noted that inflation remains high and the Bank's forecast shows that employment growth is at zero. The Fed lowered rates for the first time in nine months, citing the cooling labor market as the main factor behind the rate cut.

18-09-2025 15:00 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand dollar sinks on soft GDP

New Zealand's economy declined 0.9% q/q in the second quarter following a 0.9% gain in Q1. The Federal Reserve delivered a rate cut for the first time since December 2024 and signaled two more rate cuts before the end of the year.

18-09-2025 10:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Bank of Canada lowers rates, Canadian dollar edges upwards

The Bank of Canada lowered rates by a quarter-point to 2.5% at today's meeting. The move was widely expected and the Canadian dollar is showing limited movement. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to reduce rates by a quarter-point at today's meeting.

17-09-2025 15:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

UK inflation unchanged at 3.8%, pound shrugs

UK inflation was unchanged at 3.8%, a 19-month high. Core CPI eased to 3.6% from 3.8%, well above the BoE target of 2%. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower rates by a quarter-point at today's meeting.

17-09-2025 09:40 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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