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US dollar steady after July 4th holiday A US holiday overnight torpedoed volatility in currency markets, but overall, the US dollar continues to maintain its gains versus the DM and EM currency space, despite insipient bullish sentiment in other asset classes and falling US yields. It seems that while markets tie themselves in knots in other asset classes, the US dollar remains the favoured seat to watch the fun and games from in the stadium.

05-07-2022 05:16 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Knot-tying masterclass continues

One of the more pleasing aspects of being aboard a slow boat into the rainforests of Borneo these past few days was the complete loss of mobile telephony signals. The temptation to look at emails, chats, social media, or news from the markets was compulsorily removed, thanks to the national park being bigger than all of Bali. I certainly haven’t missed much in my short absence.

05-07-2022 04:22 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Euro calm in thin holiday trade

The euro is trading quietly in European trade at 1.0433. With US markets closed for the Fourth of July holiday, we can expect a quiet session today. US markets are closed today, putting the focus on eurozone data, which was a mixed bag.

04-07-2022 10:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Will RBA hike boost the Aussie?

We are seeing plenty of volatility from the Australian dollar. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6883 in European trade, up 0.98% on the day. The Australian dollar has recovered most of its losses from Friday, when the pair slipped 1.28%. RBA set to hike, but by how much? All eyes are on the RBA, which holds its monthly policy meeting on Tuesday.

04-07-2022 08:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Yen steady in holiday-thin trading

The currency markets will be in quiet mode today, as US markets are closed for the Fourth of July holiday. The yen hasn't shown much movement over the past week, although USD/JPY hit another 24-year high last week when it climbed to the 137.00 line. In the US, there are no tier-1 releases until Wednesday, with the release of the FOMC minutes.

04-07-2022 04:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 348)

Jonny Hart looks back on the week's business and markets news with OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya in New York. This week they talk about why the S&P 500 had the worst first half performance since 1970, the key drivers for the oil market, and the house of pain that crypto markets are stuck in. They also discuss what the week ahead has in store for financial markets.

01-07-2022 15:11 GMT by Edward Moya

US Close - ISM hits 2-year low, Au Revoir 3.00% on recession worries, Choppy waters for Stocks, Commodity Markets tired of softening, Bitcoin tests $18K waters

US stocks can’t muster up a meaningful rally heading into the long weekend as recession worries grow after the ISM manufacturing report fell to a two-year low. Wall Street isn’t liking seeing so many key economic indicators have a trajectory that looks like they will retest some of the pandemic lows. A choppy period seems likely until investors feel confident that the economy is still in decent shape and that the Fed won’t miss the opportunity to decelerate their tightening pace in September.

01-07-2022 14:51 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - Peak Fed Tightening?

The focus has shifted in recent weeks from how far central banks are going to go in their tightening cycles to how much of an economic slowdown we are facing and if a recession is still avoidable.

01-07-2022 12:47 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro slides as inflation jumps

The euro is sharply lower on Friday and is currently trading just above the 1.04 line, down 0.76%. Eurozone inflation outperforms Eurozone CPI for June was higher than expected, at 8.6% YoY. The estimate stood at 8.4% and inflation rose sharply from the May reading of 8.1%.

01-07-2022 10:02 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

A data-heavy end to the week

We're seeing choppy trading as we head into the weekend amid a flurry of economic data from across Europe. Things got underway with a plethora of PMI readings, although most were revised figures that aren't typically subject to large revisions meaning the market impact is relatively minimal. The euro area inflation data was always going to be this morning's headliner and considering the market reaction, it's been taken quite well. On the face of it, it looks like a mixed bag with the headline nu

01-07-2022 09:14 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil edges higher, gold falls

Oil higher amid supply outages Oil prices are edging higher again on Friday after paring gains over the last couple of days. With OPEC+ opting to raise production by 648,000 again in August but not comment beyond then, there is a cloud of uncertainty over the supply side again.

01-07-2022 09:07 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY - Rally running on fumes?

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam talks about USDJPY as the rally once again loses momentum.

01-07-2022 09:07 GMT by Craig Erlam

Crude crumbles, gold struggles

Oil The easy oil trade that everyone loved for much of the first half of the year has disappeared as the fundamentals have gotten quite mixed. The OPEC+ decision to maintain the planned 648,000 bpd oil increase in August went as expected, but traders are focusing more on President Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia.

30-06-2022 16:14 GMT by Edward Moya

US close - A very bad half, US data supports aggressive Fed tightening for now, bitcoin falls below USD 20k

A global central bank effort to fight inflation is driving rising recession fears that has given Wall Street the worst half of the year since 1970. Added volatility from the final trading day of the quarter is especially crazy because so many investors are rebalancing their portfolios with recession stocks. US stocks pared losses as too many investors feel we are getting close to the bottom and that now isn't that bad of time to start to scale into a longer-term position.

30-06-2022 15:15 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro stems slide but still below 1.05

The euro has edged higher on Thursday, after posting losses in two consecutive sessions. The markets were treated to a data dump out of the eurozone, with some mixed numbers. On the employment front, the eurozone unemployment rate fell to 6.6%, down from 6.8% (6.7% exp.).

30-06-2022 13:24 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil dips lower, gold higher on inflation

Oil lower as OPEC+ sticks to August target Oil prices are modestly lower on Thursday, further paring recent gains following yesterday's reversal. As expected, OPEC+ stuck to its planned 648,000 barrel increase in August and refrained from any decision beyond then which could add an element of uncertainty to future targets, particularly given recent reports that even Saudi Arabia and UAE are running near capacity. The global economic uncertainty doesn't make planning ahead any easier, either.

30-06-2022 11:28 GMT by Craig Erlam

Ending a bad month in the red

Stock markets have fallen heavily in June so it seems only fitting that they're ending the month with big losses as reality continues to bite. There's no getting away from recession chat and while the heads of the Fed, ECB and BoE didn't exactly fuel that during their panel discussion on Wednesday, they didn't do anything to dispel it either. They all know that there's a strong likelihood of recession this year or next and investors are increasingly accepting that fate as well. There's been a pl

30-06-2022 11:23 GMT by Craig Erlam

New Zealand dollar near 2-year low

The New Zealand dollar is steady on Thursday. Earlier in the day, NZD/USD fell below the 0.62 line before recovering, coming within a whisker of 0.6996, its lowest level since May 2020. NZ Business Confidence sags It was another rough outing for New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence, which fell in June to -62.6, down from -55.6 in May.

30-06-2022 11:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil falls on EIA, gold pares gains

Oil retreats on delayed EIA data Oil prices reversed course overnight as the delayed US official EIA crude inventory data was released. With two weeks of data released at once, net crude inventories fell by 3.15 million barrels, but gasoline inventories rose by 4.13 million barrels for the fortnight.

30-06-2022 05:00 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Local data releases dominate Asia

US equities struggled for direction overnight, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq almost unchanged, while the Dow Jones eked out a small gain. The outcome is hardly surprising with Wall Street tying itself up in knots and whipsawing itself over the last week under the deluge of inputs from the geopolitical, central bank and data space.

30-06-2022 04:02 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

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