OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam talks about USDJPY as the rally once again loses momentum.
01-07-2022 09:07 GMT
by Craig Erlam
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Oil
The easy oil trade that everyone loved for much of the first half of the year has disappeared as the fundamentals have gotten quite mixed. The OPEC+ decision to maintain the planned 648,000 bpd oil increase in August went as expected, but traders are focusing more on President Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia.
30-06-2022 16:14 GMT
by Edward Moya
A global central bank effort to fight inflation is driving rising recession fears that has given Wall Street the worst half of the year since 1970. Added volatility from the final trading day of the quarter is especially crazy because so many investors are rebalancing their portfolios with recession stocks.
US stocks pared losses as too many investors feel we are getting close to the bottom and that now isn't that bad of time to start to scale into a longer-term position.
30-06-2022 15:15 GMT
by Edward Moya
The euro has edged higher on Thursday, after posting losses in two consecutive sessions.
The markets were treated to a data dump out of the eurozone, with some mixed numbers. On the employment front, the eurozone unemployment rate fell to 6.6%, down from 6.8% (6.7% exp.).
30-06-2022 13:24 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil lower as OPEC+ sticks to August target
Oil prices are modestly lower on Thursday, further paring recent gains following yesterday's reversal. As expected, OPEC+ stuck to its planned 648,000 barrel increase in August and refrained from any decision beyond then which could add an element of uncertainty to future targets, particularly given recent reports that even Saudi Arabia and UAE are running near capacity.
The global economic uncertainty doesn't make planning ahead any easier, either.
30-06-2022 11:28 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Stock markets have fallen heavily in June so it seems only fitting that they're ending the month with big losses as reality continues to bite.
There's no getting away from recession chat and while the heads of the Fed, ECB and BoE didn't exactly fuel that during their panel discussion on Wednesday, they didn't do anything to dispel it either. They all know that there's a strong likelihood of recession this year or next and investors are increasingly accepting that fate as well.
There's been a pl
30-06-2022 11:23 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The New Zealand dollar is steady on Thursday. Earlier in the day, NZD/USD fell below the 0.62 line before recovering, coming within a whisker of 0.6996, its lowest level since May 2020.
NZ Business Confidence sags
It was another rough outing for New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence, which fell in June to -62.6, down from -55.6 in May.
30-06-2022 11:14 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil retreats on delayed EIA data
Oil prices reversed course overnight as the delayed US official EIA crude inventory data was released. With two weeks of data released at once, net crude inventories fell by 3.15 million barrels, but gasoline inventories rose by 4.13 million barrels for the fortnight.
30-06-2022 05:00 GMT
by Jeffrey Halley
US equities struggled for direction overnight, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq almost unchanged, while the Dow Jones eked out a small gain. The outcome is hardly surprising with Wall Street tying itself up in knots and whipsawing itself over the last week under the deluge of inputs from the geopolitical, central bank and data space.
30-06-2022 04:02 GMT
by Jeffrey Halley
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss the ECB Forum on Central Banking, OPEC+ and the rest of the week.
29-06-2022 18:30 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Oil reverses gains after inventory data
The rally in oil looked set to extend to the fourth day, as supply concerns outweigh recession fears ahead of the OPEC+ meeting tomorrow. The OPEC meeting today ended without any decisions being made amid speculation around Saudi Arabia and UAE's spare capacity.
I'm not sure it makes an enormous difference as neither were likely to save the day anyway or they would have already.
29-06-2022 18:12 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Another disappointing day for stock markets with US indices ending the day flat after Europe posted decent losses.
There was always going to be some nervousness heading into today, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey all appearing on a panel at the ECB Forum.
Under normal circumstances, there would be potential for that to put investors a bit on edge so you can imagine what today had the potential to do. Which probably explains the very co
29-06-2022 17:58 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Oil
Crude prices rallied as the oil market looks like it will remain very tight after indirect nuclear deal talks between the US and Iran ended without result. The supply outlook for crude is looking vulnerable and could see some disruptions lead to much higher oil prices. Ecuador’s oil production is declining rapidly, down 1.8 million barrels during the 15 days of protest. Libya is suspending oil exports from the Es Sider port.
Unless the EIA crude oil inventory report posts a surprisingl
29-06-2022 09:34 GMT
by Edward Moya
US stocks softened after key earnings from retailers provided limited optimism for the rest of the year and as rising long-term inflation expectations could tilt the Fed into sending the economy into a recession. Record inflation for Spain caught everyone’s attention, as traders shrugged off the temporary improvement with pricing pressures from Germany, which are only coming down from the highest levels in nearly a century.
No one wants to buy the dip anymore after seeing a few stock market re
29-06-2022 09:30 GMT
by Edward Moya
The euro remains under pressure and briefly fell below the symbolic 1.0500 level in the Asian session before recovering.
Lagarde says ECB ready to act if needed
The ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal this week is a chance for the heads of central banks to hobnob and provide encouragement in these challenging times. ECB President Lagarde, Federal Reserve Chair Powell and BoE Governor Bailey are all in attendance.
29-06-2022 06:34 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Kuroda pledges to maintain easy policy
The Japanese yen is one of those currencies that keeps investors on its toes, and it has certainly lived up to its billing in recent weeks. USD/JPY has shot up 5.79% in the month of June and is back above the 136.00 line.
29-06-2022 04:05 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil’s rally continues
Oil’s march higher continued unhindered overnight, with Brent and WTI posting another set of impressive gains. A surprise drop by US API Crude Inventories by 3.8 million barrels helped the bullish momentum, with markets ignoring the rise in refined product stocks.
29-06-2022 03:24 GMT
by Jeffrey Halley
US dollar rises as equities lose appeal
The US dollar rallied overnight, with the dollar index unwinding much of the last week's retreat in just one session. A slump by US equities sparked a rush to safety in the greenback, even as US yields were almost unchanged.
29-06-2022 03:17 GMT
by Jeffrey Halley
Asian equities resilient after Wall Street retreat
Wall Street retreated sharply overnight as the FOMO gnomes decided that weak consumer confidence numbers and forward expectation sub-indices were perhaps not good for stock prices after all. The S&P 500 fell by 2.01%, the Nasdaq slumped by 2.98%, while the Dow Jones slipped by 1.58%.
29-06-2022 03:12 GMT
by Jeffrey Halley
Readers should probably stop watching US stock markets for economic wisdom, as the price action overnight confirmed that part of the financial world has as little future insight as anywhere else. Last week, US equity markets rallied on the back of the arcane logic that a US recession would mean a lower terminal Fed funds rates and thus, was bullish for stocks, especially bombed-out tech stocks.
29-06-2022 02:59 GMT
by Jeffrey Halley