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Inflation is slowly moving higher The phrase "surging inflation" is in the financial press on a daily basis, as the major economies grapple with what has become public enemy number one. Japan, however, does not come to mind as a country dealing with high inflation, and indeed inflationary pressures there are much more modest than what we're seeing elsewhere.

28-06-2022 05:08 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil gains ground, gold fades

Oil prices rally on supply concerns Oil prices rallied once again overnight as a Reuters story over Saudi Arabia and UAE capacity constraints, as well as disruption of supplies from Libya and Ecuador overrode US recession concerns. Another lesson is that markets ignore crude futures backwardation at their peril when trying to pick a top in oil prices.

28-06-2022 03:43 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

US dollar mixed

US dollar shows muted reaction to US releases A rise in US yields overnight boosted the USD/JPY slightly, but elsewhere, the greenback continued its modest retreat versus the G-20 space as currency markets showed very little reaction to the US data. The dollar index eased 0.17% lower to 103.95, where it remains in Asia.

28-06-2022 03:35 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Asian equities ease with Wall Street

Asian markets edge lower A surprisingly robust US Durable Goods number prompted a few doubts around the lower terminal Fed Funds rate so buy equities strategy overnight. The soft US pending home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing data may also have sparked recession isn’t good for equities thoughts.

28-06-2022 03:30 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Maxed out

Markets stewed in their own juices overnight leaving equities and currencies and precious metals trading in noisy ranges, but ultimately finishing not too far from where they started. The big mover overnight was oil, which had another impressive rally, this time helped along by a Reuters story where France’s President Macron was overheard telling US President Biden at the G7 meeting, that a call to the UAE had informed him that both they and Saudi Arabia were maxed out on production capacity. Th

28-06-2022 03:19 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Yen in calm waters ahead of inflation

Yen eyes inflation data Japan has seen inflation move higher, although nowhere near the levels in the US or the UK, which are not far from double-digits. Last week, core CPI for May came in at 2.1% YoY, unchanged from April.

27-06-2022 13:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil softens, gold steadies

Oil dips lower Crude prices remain volatile as energy traders grapple with recession fears and a tight oil market that may see the G7 unveil price caps on Russian crude. Oil might have confusing reactions to economic data until Wall Street agrees upon when the peak is in place for Treasury yields. Stronger economic data would normally be a positive for the crude demand outlook, but right now the reaction might be negative for oil as traders will view strong readings as a greenlight for the Fed

27-06-2022 12:11 GMT by Edward Moya

Selling rallies, strong durable data supports further Fed tightening, bitcoin weakens

Wall Street is poised for a drawn-out period of sluggish economic activity and that has stock traders steadily fading all rebounds that emerge. Today’s volatile durable goods order reading was rather impressive and while it is only one reading, it suggests the economy is still chugging along and could probably stomach more Fed rate hikes than are being priced in. With a bear market likely at the end of 2023, it is hard to be optimistic about the second quarter rebound that still seems likely d

27-06-2022 12:07 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil edges lower, gold flat

Oil cools further amid some supply hope Oil prices are marginally lower at the start of the week after enjoying a bit of a rebound on Friday. We appear to be seeing an interesting moment in oil where a tight market is being priced against a likely economic decline, even a recession, which could help to rebalance it. And there may be other factors contributing in some way to the cooling-off, with Nigeria indicating that it will be able to hit its production quota by August having fallen well shor

27-06-2022 11:20 GMT by Craig Erlam

Focus on ECB Forum

A mixed start to the new trading week, one in which the bulk of the big market-moving events are due from Wednesday onwards. That may make for choppy trading over the next couple of days, in keeping with what we've seen so far in Europe. We will still hear from some central bank policymakers in that time which could send ripples through the markets but again, the biggest of these will also come on Wednesday.

27-06-2022 11:18 GMT by Craig Erlam

Australian dollar drifting

The Australian dollar had a relatively quiet week and the limited movement has continued on Monday. There are no Australian releases today, so barring any surprises from today's US durable goods release, I expect little movement from AUD/USD in today's session. The RBA holds its policy meeting next week and is widely expected to raise rates.

27-06-2022 08:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro calm, ECB hosts central bankers

The new trading week kicked off quietly, as there are no European releases on Monday. Not surprisingly, the euro is in calm waters today, trading slightly below the 1.06 line. Central bankers to huddle at ECB forum The ECB will host its annual in Sintra, Portugal this week, with ECB President Lagarde, Federal Reserve Chair Powell and BoE Governor Bailey all attending.

27-06-2022 05:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil recovers, gold inches higher

Oil prices bounce Oil prices rose on Friday and Brent crude and WTI has unwound most of early last week’s losses. The futures curves remain in very firm backwardation and in the real world, supplies are as tight as ever with increasing risks around Russia and European natural gas exports.

27-06-2022 04:42 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

US dollar edges lower with US yields

Markets price in earlier end to rate moves The US dollar moved slightly lower on Friday as investor confidence ended the week on a high as the street priced in an earlier end to interest rate hikes, and US yields held steady. The dollar index continued grinding lower, falling 0.27% to 104.12, where it remains in another dead Asian session.

27-06-2022 04:33 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

The risk rebound continues

Markets continue to price that the worst is over for US bond markets and that the end of Fed rate hikes will occur sooner as the economy in the US, and elsewhere, slow sharply in H2 2022. US stock markets had a banner week based on that theory, which continued Friday with Wall Street posting another day of sharp gains. Equity markets rally on recession expectations It is not just US yields that have retreated sharply over the last week, oil retreated, and this month, industrial metals have taken

27-06-2022 04:04 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 346)

Disconnect or Rebound? Jonny Hart speaks to APAC Senior Market Analyst Jeffrey Halley about news impacting the market and the week ahead. It's another blockbuster episode today, and we are covering a LOT of ground. Firstly, the stock markets are rallying impressively despite recession expectations rising.

27-06-2022 03:27 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Week Ahead - Welcome relief

Financial markets enjoyed a little reprieve last week following a raft of central bank announcements the week before. Next week sees the focus remain on policymakers, with many set to appear at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Portugal. Recessions have gone from being a potential consequence of high inflation and rapid monetary tightening to an increasingly likely scenario.

24-06-2022 21:14 GMT by Craig Erlam

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 345)

Jonny Hart looks back on the week's business and markets news with OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya in New York. This week they talk about Fed Chair Powell's two day's of testimony to Congress, oil prices, and discuss the crypto markets. They also discuss what the week ahead has in store for financial markets.

24-06-2022 13:28 GMT by Edward Moya

Mid-Market Update: Stocks rally on easing inflation expectations and Bullard's optimism, Oil rallies, Gold remains a choppy trade, Bitcoin edges higher

US stocks are rallying after a key survey showed inflation expectations are easing and following Fed Bullard’s optimistic comments about the economy. Hopes that inflation is peaking and that the economy is still on solid footing has some investors confidently buying up heavily discounted stocks. It seems Wall Street is starting to believe that even if the economy has a recession, it will be a short one. This could still be a bear market rally, but that might change if we get some less pessimist

24-06-2022 13:26 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro drifting as German confidence dips

It has been a relatively quiet week in the currency markets, and the limited activity has continued today, with the euro unchanged. German consumer confidence drops Germany, the bellwether for the eurozone, continues to churn out weak numbers, raising concerns that the bloc could be headed toward a recession. German ifo Business Climate dipped to 92.3 in June, down from 93.0 in May (92.8 est.) Germany and the rest of the eurozone remain vulnerable to negative economic factors which, unfortunat

24-06-2022 08:05 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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