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Markets are betting the Fed has it wrong again

Markets pricing in a US recession The second day of Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony on Capitol Hill passed without incident, in contrast with the frenzy on Wednesday. He reiterated an unconditional commitment to fight inflation by the Federal Reserve, but markets instead continued to price in a recession, stopping rate hikes in their tracks much sooner.

24-06-2022 04:17 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Oil slides again, gold vulnerable to technical selling

Oil falls as demand eases Oil prices softened after softer economic data in the US and Europe confirmed fears that crude demand destruction is happening. The oil market however remains very tight and declining production should prevent prices from falling below the USD 100 a barrel level.

23-06-2022 16:33 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks edge higher post Fed speak

US stocks edged higher after another round of hawkish comments from the Fed and as US economic data softens but provides no reason for the Fed to abandon its firm commitment to bring down inflation. Traders are still optimistic that even if the economy has a recession, it will be a short one.

23-06-2022 16:29 GMT by Edward Moya

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 344)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss Jerome Powell's comments in Congress, UK inflation, the CBRT rate decision and the latest gas situation in Europe.

23-06-2022 11:52 GMT by Craig Erlam

Choppy trading continues

It's been a rather choppy week in financial markets and we're seeing that reflected again on Thursday, with European stocks back in negative territory after recovering losses earlier. Equity markets have fallen heavily over the last couple of weeks as aggressive tightening and heightened recession fears weigh heavily on risk appetite. They may now be establishing a temporary bottom as yields ease off their highs but don't get too excited.

23-06-2022 10:35 GMT by Craig Erlam

Pound drifting ahead of UK retail sales

Markets brace for soft retail sales It continues to be a quiet week for the British pound. That could change on Friday, with the markets bracing for more bad news from retail sales data for May.

23-06-2022 10:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen eyes inflation report

The Japanese yen is in positive territory today, extending its gains from yesterday. USD/JPY is trading at 135.46 in the European session, down 0.56% on the day. Yen rises as US yields dip The yen has gained a bit of strength as USD/JPY is back below 136.00, after rising close to 136.71 earlier in the week, its highest level since September 1998.

23-06-2022 08:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro slips on weak PMIs

The euro is in negative territory on Thursday and has pared most of this week's gains. EUR/USD is trading just above the 1.05 line in the European session, down 0.58% on the day. German, eurozone PMIs soften Today's German and eurozone PMIs indicated slower activity in May, which reflects weaker economic activity.

23-06-2022 06:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil falls, gold continues range-trade

Oil prices edge lower in Asia Oil prices tumbled in Asia yesterday morning but managed to recover some of their losses throughout the rest of the day. Nevertheless, oil still recorded a substantial loss for the session.

23-06-2022 05:30 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

US dollar continues range-trading

Currency markets continue their sideways trading With the notable exception of the Japanese yen once again, currency markets in the DM space continued to range trade. The overnight move lower by US yields after Powell’s recession remarks saw the US dollar most falling versus the G-20 space, the notable exception being the Australasian sentiment currencies.

23-06-2022 05:24 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Asian equities are very mixed today

Asian markets directionless after Powell testimony Wall Street had an inconclusive session overnight with the major indexes closing barely changed after being sandwiched by Powell’s recession comments on one side and falling US yields on the other. The S&P 500 eased 0.13% lower, the Nasdaq slipped just 0.15%, while the Dow Jones was down just 0.18%.

23-06-2022 05:08 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Powell uses the “R-word”

Markets looking for direction after Powell testimony Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony on Capitol Hill was the centre of attention overnight. Mr Powell finally dispensed with soft landings, describing them as challenging, and instead said that a recession is “certainly a possibility.” That should have been enough to spark a somewhat counterintuitive risk sentiment rally as Fed hiking expectations were dialled back, but instead, we got a mixed response as Mr Powell as

23-06-2022 04:48 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Oil crushed on recession fears, gold steadies

Oil pares losses after Powell testimony Oil volatility will remain elevated now that opposing opinions are emerging on where prices will finish the year. Oil prices are under pressure as global recession fears accelerated crude demand destruction calls. Inflation and growth concerns won’t be improving anytime soon and that has all the short-term drivers turning negative for the crude demand outlook. Citigroup's Morse is expecting oil to fall to the USD 80s by the fourth quarter, while Goldma

22-06-2022 13:24 GMT by Edward Moya

Powell signals Fed needs to be nimble, Canada Inflation hits near 40-year high, bitcoin tries to hold USD20k

After what might be the worst first six months of the trading year for the S&P 500 since the 1970s, US stocks were ready to turn positive over the slightest hint that the Fed may change their aggressive tightening course. Equities rallied after Powell said the Fed will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook.

22-06-2022 13:20 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil retreats, gold stuck in range

Are we seeing a recession being priced into oil markets? Is oil prices getting whacked the clearest sign yet of recession fears spreading across financial markets? With equity markets, it's been a death by a thousand cuts, as inflation panic has morphed into tightening and growth fears and finally the reality of a recession.

22-06-2022 10:13 GMT by Craig Erlam

Don't get too excited by bear-market rallies

European stock markets are falling heavily again on Wednesday, reminding us all once more why we shouldn't get excited by the bear-market rallies. There's a desperation to add substance to the often sizeable rallies that pop up in equity markets despite little or no rationale behind them and today is once again a lesson in why we shouldn't bother. In much the same way that "if it seems too good to be true, it probably is", if stocks are rallying for seemingly no reason, there probably isn't one.

22-06-2022 10:07 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZ dollar slides as risk sentiment falls

The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6261, down 1.14% on the day. New Zealand data has been mixed this week.

22-06-2022 09:07 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

British pound yawns as CPI matches estimate

UK inflation nudged higher in May, as was expected. The headline release rose to 9.1% YoY, up slightly from the 9.0% gain in April.

22-06-2022 07:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canada's CPI expected to rise

The Canadian dollar started the week with gains, but has reversed directions on Wednesday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.2978, up 0.47% on the day. CPI expected to hit 7.4% Canada releases the May inflation report later today, and the markets are bracing for another rise.

22-06-2022 06:26 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil pares gains, gold range trades

Oil prices slump in Asia Oil prices probed the topside intraday overnight but gave back those gains with Brent crude almost unchanged at USD 114.60 a barrel, and WTI edging 0.55% lower to USD 109.65 a barrel. In Asia, both contracts have slumped, with WTI notably, falling through longer-term support.

22-06-2022 04:57 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

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