Oil market stays tight, gold ready to shine

Oil

Crude prices rallied as the oil market looks like it will remain very tight after indirect nuclear deal talks between the US and Iran ended without result. ​ The supply outlook for crude is looking vulnerable and could see some disruptions lead to much higher oil prices. ​ Ecuador’s oil production is declining rapidly, down 1.8 million barrels during the 15 days of protest. ​ Libya is suspending oil exports from the Es Sider port.

Unless the EIA crude oil inventory report posts a surprisingly large drop in demand and significant production increase, oil prices should be poised to climb higher.

Gold rises on inflation concerns

Gold prices are higher as the bond market selloff eases. After inflation hit a record high in Spain, pressure has grown for the ECB to be a bit more aggressive and that helped soften the dollar. ​ Risk appetite will struggle to return here as inflation continues to hamper the outlooks for most companies. Gold is still stuck in a wide trading range, but a collapse below the USD 1800 seems less likely as the dollar peak might be in place. Wall Street will likely lean towards anticipating more rate hikes from the ECB, that will drive a weaker dollar and weakening growth outlooks which should prompt the safe-haven buying of gold.