All Articles

Risk Aversion on The Good, the bad and the Ugly Earnings

Fighting for survival, First Republic considers divesting up to $100 billion in asset sales GM earnings a bright spot in what is becoming a very down day on Wall Street Consumer Confidence expectations trigger recession concerns US stocks are softening after a mixed bag of earnings was accompanied by the return of banking jitters and news that President Biden will run for re-election. Overall earnings are coming in better-than-expected, but the consumer is weakening and very concerned about the

25-04-2023 13:54 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD slips, investors eye German consumer confidence

German consumer confidence projected to improve US consumer confidence slips, housing sales surge EUR/USD is trading at 1.0968, down 0.69% on the day. German consumer confidence expected to improve Germany releases GfK Consumer Sentiment for April on Wednesday. The index is still deep in negative territory, but it has improved for six straight months and the upswing is expected to continue in the upcoming release.

25-04-2023 12:47 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD slips to 2-week low ahead of CPI

AUD/USD is down almost 1% Australian CPI expected to drop to 6.6% UoM Consumer Sentiment falls, US New Home Sales jump The Australian dollar has plunged on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6632, down 0.95% on the day.

25-04-2023 11:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Investors eye US data later in the week; earnings remain in focus

Equity markets a slightly under pressure on Tuesday following a wide array of earnings releases and as investors eye further US data later in the week. Interest rate expectations have become more hawkish in recent weeks but investors don't appear convinced it's going to unfold that way. We're still looking for weaknesses in the labour market and signs of inflationary pressures softening, something we could see over the next couple of months at which point expectations could be pared back once mo

25-04-2023 09:30 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil prices drop, gold remains choppy

Calls for $100 oil premature Oil prices are slipping again on Tuesday after paring losses over the last couple of sessions. It would appear crude prices have now settled back into their pre-OPEC+ intervention trading ranges, with Brent between $78-$88 and WTI $73-$83. The move lower today could even be another push to close the OPEC+ gap from a few weeks ago after falling just short late last week.

25-04-2023 09:17 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY dips lower after BoJ Core CPI rises

BoJ Governor Ueda says BOJ will maintain policy BOJ Core CPI rises to 2.9% US will release UoM Consumer Confidence later today USD/JPY is trading at 133.87, down 0.28% on the day. BoJ Core CPI climbs to 2.9% Inflation in Japan is much lower than what we're seeing in other major economies, but nevertheless, inflation continues to be closely watched by the Bank of Japan. There has been speculation that the central bank will make a shift in policy, given that inflation is above 3%, above

25-04-2023 06:13 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Weaker dollar boosts oil and gold; Bitcoin remains heavy

Oil tentatively finds a bottom on improving demand optimism Gold stuck in a tight range; hovering around $2000 level Bitcoin traders remain in wait-and-see mode on the regulatory front Oil Crude prices rebounded after a better-than-expected German sentiment report and as energy traders started to see Europe struggle to reliably replace Russian crude supplies. Last week, oil’s rough week had too many holes poked into the short-term crude outlook, but some of that pessimism might go away this we

24-04-2023 15:38 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks waver ahead of big-tech earnings and US data, Coca-Cola impresses

Mega Cap Tech Earnings Week: Tuesday - Alphabet and Microsoft, Wednesday - Meta, Thursday - Amazon and Intel Thursday's first look at GDP is expected to show economy grew at 2.0% Fed speaker black out window begins Wall Street wavers as investors await mega-cap tech earnings, looming debt ceiling drama, and a few key US data points that will influence Fed officals. Over the past month stocks have rallied on expectations that any of the big risks on the table will force the Fed’s rate cutting

24-04-2023 15:24 GMT by Edward Moya

A slow start to the week in markets but there's plenty still to come

It's been a slow start to the week in the markets as investors have an eye on what's to come with earnings season getting into full flow and major economic releases on the agenda. We've reached an interesting moment in which investors have been forced to retreat on post-SVB positioning on rate hikes, albeit not entirely, but they seem far from convinced that central banks will actually follow through and, if they do, that they will not reverse course. Credit conditions have tightened The reason

24-04-2023 13:56 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil edges higher, gold in choppy waters

Uncertain outlook weighs on crude as prices almost close the post-OPEC+ gap Oil prices are a little higher at the start of the week, bouncing back after largely closing the post-OEPC+ gap from a few weeks ago. Prices came within a whisker of doing so and could potentially attempt to again.

24-04-2023 13:49 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD drifting continues

British pound showing limited movement UK retail sales fall PMIs show manufacturing decline, services accelerate British pound shrugs off weak retail sales, mixed PMI data The week ended with mixed data out of the UK, and the British pound fell 0.80% but managed to recover and ended the Friday session unchanged. Retail sales fell by 3.1% y/y, matching the estimate and following -3.5% in February.

24-04-2023 11:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY extends rally ahead of BOJ Core CPI

USD/JPY climbs for a third straight day BoJ Core CPI will be released Tuesday New BoJ Governor Ueda chairs his first meeting later this week Japan inflation in focus This week's data calendar out of Japan will be dominated by inflation releases and the Bank of Japan's two-day meeting at the end of the week. Traders will be keeping a close eye on BoJ Core CPI, which will be released on Tuesday.

24-04-2023 09:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Week Ahead - Economic data to solidify a Fed rate hike in May?

The economic data in the week ahead should solidify rate hike expectations for the May 3rd FOMC meeting, but it could also raise the bar for further tightening for the June 14th meeting. Investors will closely monitor the first look at Q1 GDP, the Fed’s preferred wage and inflation gauges. The first look at Q1 GDP is expected to soften from 2.6% to 2.0%. The first quarter employment cost index is expected to rise from 1.0% to 1.1%.

24-04-2023 09:10 GMT by Craig Erlam

Canadian dollar hits 3-week low as retail sales decline

Canadian retail sales declined US Manufacturing and Services PMIs accelerated USD/CAD has climbed 200 points in one week USD/CAD continued to rally today but has pared most of those gains. In Europe, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3527 Canada's core retail sales drop The markets were bracing for a weak Canadian retail sales report in February, and the numbers were indeed soft.

24-04-2023 05:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Podcast - Manufacturing surveys spell trouble for the global economy?

Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the latest PMIs from Asia, Europe, and the US, UK retail sales and the week ahead.

21-04-2023 17:27 GMT by Craig Erlam

Video - GBP/USD firms after UK inflation and labour market data

Craig Erlam discusses the latest moves in GBP/USD in light of the recent UK labour market and inflation data.

21-04-2023 08:58 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD - Euro steady after mixed PMI reports, US PMIs next

Services PMIs showed stronger expansion in the eurozone Manufacturing PMIs indicated a stronger decline US PMIs follow later today PMIs point to strong services, weak manufacturing The eurozone released April PMIs today, and the results were a mixed bag. The services and manufacturing sectors continue to show strong divergence, with services showing stronger growth, while manufacturing continues to struggle.

21-04-2023 08:49 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil decline continues, gold in choppy waters

Was OPEC+ correct to cut production as the price tumbles once more? Oil prices are slipping further at the end of the week and looking increasingly likely to close the post-OPEC+ gap. The gap a few weeks ago came after the cartel announced a surprise output cut over the weekend triggering a gap open on Monday.

21-04-2023 07:33 GMT by Craig Erlam

Manufacturing woes continue as services become increasingly optimistic

Another mixed day of trade in stock markets on Friday as UK consumers become increasingly less pessimistic but spend less and global manufacturing slumps further. UK consumers less pessimistic but spending slips in March Economic data on the UK consumer has been a mixed bag on the face of it this morning but a deeper dive into the figures suggest there's a little more cause for optimism than the headline numbers suggest. The most obvious reason for this is that an abundance of rainfall weighed o

21-04-2023 07:29 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD extends rally, markets brace for weak Canadian retail sales

Canadian retail sales expected to have declined US Services and Manufacturing PMIs projected to have slowed USD/CAD pushes above 1.35 The US dollar is broadly higher today, and USD/CAD has climbed to 1.3530, up 0.40% on the day. The Canadian dollar is on a downturn and has lost close to 200 points since last Friday. Canadian dollar eyes retail sales, US PMIs The week wraps up with key releases on both sides of the border.

21-04-2023 07:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

All news & analysis