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British pound showing limited movement UK retail sales fall PMIs show manufacturing decline, services accelerate British pound shrugs off weak retail sales, mixed PMI data The week ended with mixed data out of the UK, and the British pound fell 0.80% but managed to recover and ended the Friday session unchanged. Retail sales fell by 3.1% y/y, matching the estimate and following -3.5% in February.

24-04-2023 11:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY extends rally ahead of BOJ Core CPI

USD/JPY climbs for a third straight day BoJ Core CPI will be released Tuesday New BoJ Governor Ueda chairs his first meeting later this week Japan inflation in focus This week's data calendar out of Japan will be dominated by inflation releases and the Bank of Japan's two-day meeting at the end of the week. Traders will be keeping a close eye on BoJ Core CPI, which will be released on Tuesday.

24-04-2023 09:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Week Ahead - Economic data to solidify a Fed rate hike in May?

The economic data in the week ahead should solidify rate hike expectations for the May 3rd FOMC meeting, but it could also raise the bar for further tightening for the June 14th meeting. Investors will closely monitor the first look at Q1 GDP, the Fed’s preferred wage and inflation gauges. The first look at Q1 GDP is expected to soften from 2.6% to 2.0%. The first quarter employment cost index is expected to rise from 1.0% to 1.1%.

24-04-2023 09:10 GMT by Craig Erlam

Canadian dollar hits 3-week low as retail sales decline

Canadian retail sales declined US Manufacturing and Services PMIs accelerated USD/CAD has climbed 200 points in one week USD/CAD continued to rally today but has pared most of those gains. In Europe, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3527 Canada's core retail sales drop The markets were bracing for a weak Canadian retail sales report in February, and the numbers were indeed soft.

24-04-2023 05:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Podcast - Manufacturing surveys spell trouble for the global economy?

Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the latest PMIs from Asia, Europe, and the US, UK retail sales and the week ahead.

21-04-2023 17:27 GMT by Craig Erlam

Video - GBP/USD firms after UK inflation and labour market data

Craig Erlam discusses the latest moves in GBP/USD in light of the recent UK labour market and inflation data.

21-04-2023 08:58 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD - Euro steady after mixed PMI reports, US PMIs next

Services PMIs showed stronger expansion in the eurozone Manufacturing PMIs indicated a stronger decline US PMIs follow later today PMIs point to strong services, weak manufacturing The eurozone released April PMIs today, and the results were a mixed bag. The services and manufacturing sectors continue to show strong divergence, with services showing stronger growth, while manufacturing continues to struggle.

21-04-2023 08:49 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil decline continues, gold in choppy waters

Was OPEC+ correct to cut production as the price tumbles once more? Oil prices are slipping further at the end of the week and looking increasingly likely to close the post-OPEC+ gap. The gap a few weeks ago came after the cartel announced a surprise output cut over the weekend triggering a gap open on Monday.

21-04-2023 07:33 GMT by Craig Erlam

Manufacturing woes continue as services become increasingly optimistic

Another mixed day of trade in stock markets on Friday as UK consumers become increasingly less pessimistic but spend less and global manufacturing slumps further. UK consumers less pessimistic but spending slips in March Economic data on the UK consumer has been a mixed bag on the face of it this morning but a deeper dive into the figures suggest there's a little more cause for optimism than the headline numbers suggest. The most obvious reason for this is that an abundance of rainfall weighed o

21-04-2023 07:29 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD extends rally, markets brace for weak Canadian retail sales

Canadian retail sales expected to have declined US Services and Manufacturing PMIs projected to have slowed USD/CAD pushes above 1.35 The US dollar is broadly higher today, and USD/CAD has climbed to 1.3530, up 0.40% on the day. The Canadian dollar is on a downturn and has lost close to 200 points since last Friday. Canadian dollar eyes retail sales, US PMIs The week wraps up with key releases on both sides of the border.

21-04-2023 07:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD slides on hawkish Fedspeak

AUD/USD has fallen sharply Fed members continue to urge more rate hikes Fed members say inflation still too high The Australian dollar has been relatively quiet during the week but is getting pummelled on Friday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6685, down 0.84% on the day.

21-04-2023 05:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

BoJ may start to give more hints on policy normalization

Japan sticky inflation (excluding fresh food & energy) continued to increase for 10 consecutive months. Flash manufacturing PMI for April has shown signs of bottoming out from contraction. AUD/JPY reversed from key medium-term resistance at 90.70. Market participants in the financial markets will turn their focus to the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision outcome next week on Friday, 28 April under the helm of a new Governor, Kazuo Ueda. Why is it important? During a decade-long tenu

21-04-2023 01:13 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Stocks soften as earnings and US data still support more Fed rate hikes

US stocks are declining as earnings and economic evidence suggest wage growth is still too high and will keep inflation sticky. Earnings alone are dragging stocks down as Tesla deals with its margin problem, American Express prepares for loan losses, and after TSMC’s disappointing outlook. Wall Street is staring at a list of Fed speakers that will undoubtedly have to stick to the script that inflation is too high and that they can continue with their rate hiking cycle since banking turmoil h

20-04-2023 14:57 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil tries to fill gap, Gold tries to make another run, Bitcoin's Coinbase risk

Oil's $2 drop on weakening outlook Gold higher on Debt drama and earnings risk Bitcoin lower on risk aversion and regulatory risks Oil Oil is getting crushed as Wall Street starts to get a steady stream of disappointing outlooks and on concerns that sentiment with China’s households and business might not be as robust as some are thinking. China may still need to ease and until they do so, investors might not be fully optimistic about the outlook for China. Today is mostly a risk aversion ses

20-04-2023 14:42 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD - Euro edges higher on hawkish Lagarde comments

Lagarde hints at further rate hikes US unemployment claims rise EUR/USD is drifting ECB's Lagarde warns inflation still too high In the weeks prior to the ECB rate decision in March, ECB President Christine Lagarde practically promised an oversize rate hike of 50-basis points. The ECB delivered the goods as promised, but I suspect that Lagarde may have received some criticism for being too transparent.

20-04-2023 13:18 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Rally stalls amid uncertainty over interest rates and the economy

European markets are in the red on Thursday in what continues to be a choppy week of trading driven by economic and interest rate uncertainty. We're now at a pivotal point in the tightening cycle, one made all the more difficult by the mini-banking crisis last month and the ripple effects it will have on credit and the economy over the course of the rest of the year. Central banks, the Fed in particular, are now at even greater risk of overtightening just as the data may show price pressures eas

20-04-2023 07:40 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil price correction continues, gold bounces back

Is oil looking to close the gap? We're continuing to see a correction in oil prices following a more than 2% decline on Wednesday. That saw the price move below the post-OPEC+ cut lows from a couple of weeks ago and move into the void left by that surprise announcement. Now it's a question of whether that gap will be filled, with the high from the Friday before falling just shy of $76 in WTI and $78 in Brent.

20-04-2023 07:36 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZD/USD falls to 5-week low as inflation slows

New Zealand inflation fell to 6.7%, lower than expected NZD/USD is down 0.40% and dropped to its lowest level since April 16 Four members of FOMC will speak today New Zealand inflation eases more than expected Policy makers at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are in a bubbly mood, as New Zealand's inflation rate dropped to 6.7% in the first quarter, beating the market consensus of 7.1%. The RBNZ had braced for an acceleration to 7.3%, so the substantial drop was a welcome surprise. The central

20-04-2023 06:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD - Aussie shrugs as business confidence falls, RBA review released

Australian Business Confidence and Business Conditions fall RBA review calls for overhaul of central bank Governor Lowe says willing to continue AUD/USD is almost unchanged, trading at 0.6714 Australian Business confidence declines again The NAB Business Confidence Index declined for a second straight quarter, falling by 4 pts. This missed the estimate of 2 and follows a Q4 2022 reading of -1.

20-04-2023 04:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

It’s all about rising bond yields again but complacency reigns for US equities

US Treasury yields have started to rise ex post US CPI and PPI data releases. Equities, commodities, fixed income, and cryptocurrencies have started to pull back from earlier rallies. VIX, a measurement of implied volatility on the S&P 500 has sunk to a 14-month low.

20-04-2023 01:14 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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