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BoJ may start to give more hints on policy normalization

Japan sticky inflation (excluding fresh food & energy) continued to increase for 10 consecutive months. Flash manufacturing PMI for April has shown signs of bottoming out from contraction. AUD/JPY reversed from key medium-term resistance at 90.70. Market participants in the financial markets will turn their focus to the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision outcome next week on Friday, 28 April under the helm of a new Governor, Kazuo Ueda. Why is it important? During a decade-long tenu

21-04-2023 01:13 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Stocks soften as earnings and US data still support more Fed rate hikes

US stocks are declining as earnings and economic evidence suggest wage growth is still too high and will keep inflation sticky. Earnings alone are dragging stocks down as Tesla deals with its margin problem, American Express prepares for loan losses, and after TSMC’s disappointing outlook. Wall Street is staring at a list of Fed speakers that will undoubtedly have to stick to the script that inflation is too high and that they can continue with their rate hiking cycle since banking turmoil h

20-04-2023 14:57 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil tries to fill gap, Gold tries to make another run, Bitcoin's Coinbase risk

Oil's $2 drop on weakening outlook Gold higher on Debt drama and earnings risk Bitcoin lower on risk aversion and regulatory risks Oil Oil is getting crushed as Wall Street starts to get a steady stream of disappointing outlooks and on concerns that sentiment with China’s households and business might not be as robust as some are thinking. China may still need to ease and until they do so, investors might not be fully optimistic about the outlook for China. Today is mostly a risk aversion ses

20-04-2023 14:42 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD - Euro edges higher on hawkish Lagarde comments

Lagarde hints at further rate hikes US unemployment claims rise EUR/USD is drifting ECB's Lagarde warns inflation still too high In the weeks prior to the ECB rate decision in March, ECB President Christine Lagarde practically promised an oversize rate hike of 50-basis points. The ECB delivered the goods as promised, but I suspect that Lagarde may have received some criticism for being too transparent.

20-04-2023 13:18 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Rally stalls amid uncertainty over interest rates and the economy

European markets are in the red on Thursday in what continues to be a choppy week of trading driven by economic and interest rate uncertainty. We're now at a pivotal point in the tightening cycle, one made all the more difficult by the mini-banking crisis last month and the ripple effects it will have on credit and the economy over the course of the rest of the year. Central banks, the Fed in particular, are now at even greater risk of overtightening just as the data may show price pressures eas

20-04-2023 07:40 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil price correction continues, gold bounces back

Is oil looking to close the gap? We're continuing to see a correction in oil prices following a more than 2% decline on Wednesday. That saw the price move below the post-OPEC+ cut lows from a couple of weeks ago and move into the void left by that surprise announcement. Now it's a question of whether that gap will be filled, with the high from the Friday before falling just shy of $76 in WTI and $78 in Brent.

20-04-2023 07:36 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZD/USD falls to 5-week low as inflation slows

New Zealand inflation fell to 6.7%, lower than expected NZD/USD is down 0.40% and dropped to its lowest level since April 16 Four members of FOMC will speak today New Zealand inflation eases more than expected Policy makers at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are in a bubbly mood, as New Zealand's inflation rate dropped to 6.7% in the first quarter, beating the market consensus of 7.1%. The RBNZ had braced for an acceleration to 7.3%, so the substantial drop was a welcome surprise. The central

20-04-2023 06:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD - Aussie shrugs as business confidence falls, RBA review released

Australian Business Confidence and Business Conditions fall RBA review calls for overhaul of central bank Governor Lowe says willing to continue AUD/USD is almost unchanged, trading at 0.6714 Australian Business confidence declines again The NAB Business Confidence Index declined for a second straight quarter, falling by 4 pts. This missed the estimate of 2 and follows a Q4 2022 reading of -1.

20-04-2023 04:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

It’s all about rising bond yields again but complacency reigns for US equities

US Treasury yields have started to rise ex post US CPI and PPI data releases. Equities, commodities, fixed income, and cryptocurrencies have started to pull back from earlier rallies. VIX, a measurement of implied volatility on the S&P 500 has sunk to a 14-month low.

20-04-2023 01:14 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Oil lower on strong dollar, Gold volatile, Bitcoin at $29k

Oil's worst slide in a month as demand concerns grow Surging yields weigh on gold Binance had a 16,000 bitcoin sell order before the 4am plunge Oil Oil prices declined as the dollar rebounded and after a mixed oil inventory report raised demand concerns. Gasoline demand showed unexpected weakness as inventories posted a surprise build of 1.3 million bpd vs an expected drop of 1.5 million bpd. The headline draw of 4.5 million barrels was larger-than-expected, but that was because it was the

19-04-2023 17:00 GMT by Edward Moya

Tesla Earnings, Stocks flat as investors digest more earnings and the Fed's Beige Book

US stocks ended flat after investors digested multiple earnings, a Beige book that didn’t show a recession was anywhere near, and ahead of what will probably be a steady stream of hawkish Fed speak. Investors are staring down a list of Fed speakers that will probably push back on Fed’s Bostic call that they could hike once more and be done. Fed’s Williams, Waller, Mester, Bowman and Harker might not agree with Bostic, while Goolsbee and Cook may lean towards him.

19-04-2023 16:43 GMT by Edward Moya

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 556); Netflix Earnings, A hot UK CPI Report , Crypto Outlook

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and our new co-host Trader Nick. They discuss Netflix earnings, banking results from Morgan Stanley and Western Alliance, another hot UK inflation report, and discuss the current state of cryptos.

19-04-2023 15:17 GMT by Edward Moya

New Zealand dollar eyes fourth-quarter inflation

New Zealand's inflation estimate for Q1 stands at 7.1% Fed's Bostic expects one more rate hike NZD/USD showing limited movement New Zealand inflation expected to remain above 7% New Zealand releases inflation for the first quarter later today. It has been a light data week so far in both New Zealand and the US, which explains why NZD/USD is almost unchanged this week.

19-04-2023 09:53 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Investors turn more hawkish amid another stubborn inflation report

Inflation remains a major concern for central banks and recent data highlights how far there is to go, something policymakers will be hoping changes very soon. A major headache for the Bank of England There's no getting away from another rate hike from the BoE next month after inflation unexpectedly remained above 10% in March. This followed the labour market report on Tuesday which showed wages also remaining stubbornly higher, a combination that will make justifying not hiking very difficult f

19-04-2023 08:13 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil slips on Chinese data, gold falls as rate expectations rise

Oil testing post-OPEC+ gap open Oil prices are off almost 2% today and earlier tested the gap open from a couple of weeks ago. That came on the back of the surprise weekend OPEC+ output cut which propelled the price back towards the highs of the previous few months, where it has since hovered around. Today's sell-off comes on the back of some selling pressure yesterday following the Chinese industrial production data and slightly more hawkish expectations on interest rates.

19-04-2023 08:05 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD - Euro slips as eurozone inflation slides

Eurozone inflation fell to 6.9%, while the core rate rose to 5.7% Goldman Sachs expects ECB rate hike in May EUR/USD has fallen 0.50% and is trading at 1.0920 Eurozone inflation drops to 6.9% Eurozone inflation numbers were unchanged in the final estimate. Headline inflation dropped to 6.9% in March, down sharply from 8.5% a month earlier.

19-04-2023 07:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD edges higher as UK inflation higher than expected

UK inflation falls to 10.1%, higher than expected BoE likely to raise rates in May Three Fed members will deliver public remarks today GBP/USD is trading at 1.2445, up 0.16% on the day. UK inflation stays above 10% UK inflation remains hot and stubbornly high. In March, headline CPI dropped to 10.1%, down from 10.4% but above the consensus estimate of 9.8%.

19-04-2023 04:35 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Time to take note of Japan’s stock market again

Emerging markets and China’s risk premiums over Japan have been narrowed. Japan is considered a potential defensive play as its stock market valuation is much lowered than the rest of the world. Nikkei 225 is consolidating within a long-term uptrend phase in place since March 2009. The Japanese stock market has underperformed and languished against the US since the infamous burst of Japan’s property bubble in early 1990 that led to two decades of sticky deflation. Even though, the implementatio

19-04-2023 01:48 GMT by Kelvin Wong

WTI crude attracts buyers at $80, Gold defends $2,000, Bitcoin recaptures $30,000

Oil Oil struggled early as the details behind China’s impressive first quarter included lackluster March industrial output. A key German investor sentiment survey also weighed on crude, as optimism for the eurozone’s largest economy remains downbeat in the coming quarters. Oil isn't getting any good news here and that means prices could continue to hover around the $80 a barrel level, or even see a tentative dip below if sellers get some help from a strong dollar. The initial wave of weakness

18-04-2023 12:29 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks waver on earnings; China's economy awakens, Brookfield defaults

Wall Street is becoming a little bit more optimistic as more companies delivered strong earnings (Bank of America, BNY Mellon, J&J, & Lockheed Martin posted strong results, while Goldman Sachs was the lone weak report) and as China’s recovery is clearly here but not clicking on all cylinders. Today’s mood is about profitability concerns may have been overdone for the quarter, but Fed tightening fears won’t be going away anytime soon. If earnings continue to impress, too much of a good thing wi

18-04-2023 12:08 GMT by Edward Moya

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