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USD/JPY - Yen eyes Tokyo CPI, US GDP
Tokyo Core CPI expected to remain unchanged at 3.2% US to release unemployment claims and GDP BoJ's 2-day meeting begins today USD/JPY is trading quietly at 133.84, up 0.13% on the day. The yen's lack of movement could change today with a host of key releases.
by Kenneth Fisher
Gold has not lost its glitter
Conflicting macro news flow has capped gold in a short-term range-bound movement. 1-year rolling uptrend of gold versus most major fiat currencies remains intact. Lower 10-year US Treasury real yield may provide an impetus for gold bulls. The recent movement in the price of gold has started to falter from its recent 52-week high of US$2,048 per ounce reached on 13 April 2023.
by Kelvin Wong
Oil loses OPEC+ gains, Gold rally falters, Cryptos rally on banking woes
Oil tumbles on recessionary fears Gold struggles as yields push higher Bitcoin recaptures $29,000 Oil Crude prices just saw all of its gains from the OPEC+ surprise production cut erased as macro backdrop has become a disaster. Oil has been in freefall over a challenging economic environment, banking jitters, disappointment with China’s reopening, fears of overtightening by the Fed, and on expectation Permian basin production has yet to peak. WTI crude pared losses after a bullish EIA report sh
by Edward Moya
Stocks supported by mega-cap tech earnings but dragged down by banking woes
Stocks weighed down on banking jitters Fed expectations widely swinging back and forth House expected to vote on debt limit today; Senate Dems signaled first major bill dead on arrival Yesterday, a small little bank was able to take down Wall Street. ​ After the close, a double dose of robust mega-cap tech earnings helped stabilize that ship. Stock traders are breathing a sigh of relief after Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet tentatively helped alleviate growth concerns and that tech’s stron
by Edward Moya
NZD/USD dips on banking worries, NZ business confidence next
First Republic Bank's shares plunge NZD/USD falls to one-month low New Zealand releases business confidence on Thursday First Republic Bank woes continue Has the bank crisis resurfaced? There is plenty of concern in the financial markets as First Republic Bank's shares continue to swoon.
by Kenneth Fisher
EUR/USD rebounds as German consumer confidence improves
German consumer confidence rises EUR/USD pushes above 1.10 EUR/USD is trading at 1.1040, up 0.60% on the day German consumer confidence brightens German consumer confidence continued its upswing heading into May. The German GfK consumer sentiment index rose to -25.7, up from -29.3 in April and above the estimate of -27.5 points.
by Kenneth Fisher
AUD/USD falls below 0.66 on lower inflation, banking jitters
AUD/USD drops to 6-week low Australian inflation falls in Q4 First Republic shares slide by 50% AUD/USD is trading at 0.6606, down 0.31%. Earlier, AUD/USD fell to a low of 0.6595, its lowest level since March 15th. Australian inflation heads south Australia's inflation levels have been falling and the downward trend continued in the first quarter.
by Kenneth Fisher
Gold and Bitcoin rally as Bank worries return; Oil lower
Oil getting crushed as the demand outlook continues to deteriorate Gold surges as Fed hike bets no longer fully price in a quarter-point rate rise Bitcoin finds some tentative support at the $27,200 level Oil Oil prices slumped as the dollar rallied and crude demand signals remained mostly bearish as Halliburton signaled that customers are clearly motivated to produce more oil and gas. The one positive news for crude was the upbeat outlook from JetBlue on robust demand trends in the second quar
by Edward Moya
Risk Aversion on The Good, the bad and the Ugly Earnings
Fighting for survival, First Republic considers divesting up to $100 billion in asset sales GM earnings a bright spot in what is becoming a very down day on Wall Street Consumer Confidence expectations trigger recession concerns US stocks are softening after a mixed bag of earnings was accompanied by the return of banking jitters and news that President Biden will run for re-election. Overall earnings are coming in better-than-expected, but the consumer is weakening and very concerned about the
by Edward Moya
EUR/USD slips, investors eye German consumer confidence
German consumer confidence projected to improve US consumer confidence slips, housing sales surge EUR/USD is trading at 1.0968, down 0.69% on the day. German consumer confidence expected to improve Germany releases GfK Consumer Sentiment for April on Wednesday. The index is still deep in negative territory, but it has improved for six straight months and the upswing is expected to continue in the upcoming release.
by Kenneth Fisher
AUD/USD slips to 2-week low ahead of CPI
AUD/USD is down almost 1% Australian CPI expected to drop to 6.6% UoM Consumer Sentiment falls, US New Home Sales jump The Australian dollar has plunged on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6632, down 0.95% on the day.
by Kenneth Fisher
Investors eye US data later in the week; earnings remain in focus
Equity markets a slightly under pressure on Tuesday following a wide array of earnings releases and as investors eye further US data later in the week. Interest rate expectations have become more hawkish in recent weeks but investors don't appear convinced it's going to unfold that way. We're still looking for weaknesses in the labour market and signs of inflationary pressures softening, something we could see over the next couple of months at which point expectations could be pared back once mo
by Craig Erlam
Oil prices drop, gold remains choppy
Calls for $100 oil premature Oil prices are slipping again on Tuesday after paring losses over the last couple of sessions. It would appear crude prices have now settled back into their pre-OPEC+ intervention trading ranges, with Brent between $78-$88 and WTI ​$73-$83. The move lower today could even be another push to close the OPEC+ gap from a few weeks ago after falling just short late last week.
by Craig Erlam
USD/JPY dips lower after BoJ Core CPI rises
BoJ Governor Ueda says BOJ will maintain policy BOJ Core CPI rises to 2.9% US will release UoM Consumer Confidence later today USD/JPY is trading at 133.87, down 0.28% on the day. BoJ Core CPI climbs to 2.9% Inflation in Japan is much lower than what we're seeing in other major economies, but nevertheless, inflation continues to be closely watched by the Bank of Japan. There has been speculation that the central bank will make a shift in policy, given that inflation is above 3%, above
by Kenneth Fisher
Weaker dollar boosts oil and gold; Bitcoin remains heavy
Oil tentatively finds a bottom on improving demand optimism Gold stuck in a tight range; hovering around $2000 level Bitcoin traders remain in wait-and-see mode on the regulatory front Oil Crude prices rebounded after a better-than-expected German sentiment report and as energy traders started to see Europe struggle to reliably replace Russian crude supplies.  Last week, oil’s rough week had too many holes poked into the short-term crude outlook, but some of that pessimism might go away this we
by Edward Moya
Stocks waver ahead of big-tech earnings and US data, Coca-Cola impresses
Mega Cap Tech Earnings Week: Tuesday - Alphabet and Microsoft, Wednesday - Meta, Thursday - Amazon and Intel Thursday's first look at GDP is expected to show economy grew at 2.0% Fed speaker black out window begins Wall Street wavers as investors await mega-cap tech earnings, looming debt ceiling drama, and a few key US data points that will influence Fed officals. ​ Over the past month stocks have rallied on expectations that any of the big risks on the table will force the Fed’s rate cutting
by Edward Moya
A slow start to the week in markets but there's plenty still to come
It's been a slow start to the week in the markets as investors have an eye on what's to come with earnings season getting into full flow and major economic releases on the agenda. We've reached an interesting moment in which investors have been forced to retreat on post-SVB positioning on rate hikes, albeit not entirely, but they seem far from convinced that central banks will actually follow through and, if they do, that they will not reverse course. Credit conditions have tightened The reason
by Craig Erlam
Oil edges higher, gold in choppy waters
Uncertain outlook weighs on crude as prices almost close the post-OPEC+ gap Oil prices are a little higher at the start of the week, bouncing back after largely closing the post-OEPC+ gap from a few weeks ago. Prices came within a whisker of doing so and could potentially attempt to again.
by Craig Erlam
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