All Articles

Commodities and Cryptos: Oil market getting tighter, Gold battered as yields rally, Bitcoin in danger

Oil A tight oil market just got hit with supply disruptions and geopolitical risks, which means oil prices are headed higher. Oil prices were boosted after growing unrest in Kazakhstan posed a risk to their 1.6 million barrels per day of production. Insurgents were responsible at the beginning of the year for sending Libyan production to the lowest levels in more than a year. Energy traders are growing very confident this market will remain very tight and now that omicron worries have eased o

06-01-2022 15:55 GMT by Edward Moya

US Close: Mixed Session, US Data, Yields rally, Lira weakens

US stocks were mixed as some traders found value in the heavily beaten-up tech sector, while some were hesitant to put on massive positions before Friday’s nonfarm payroll report. The big question for many traders' is how high yields will go up and at one point will it become a problem for the economy. Most of Wall Street has an upbeat outlook for 2022, but the risks of a Fed policy mistake, US geopolitical tensions with both Russia and China, and inflationary pressures, pose serious risks to t

06-01-2022 15:53 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil pushes higher, gold slides after FOMC

Oil shakes off sentiment hit Oil is continuing to push higher as traders price in a modest economic impact from omicron. The OPEC+ meeting this week supported the view and the price of oil is now not far from its October peak, with WTI closing in on USD 80 for the first time in almost two months. The knock to broader market sentiment from the Fed minutes is not reverberating around the crude market, with prices up more than 2% on the day and backed by momentum. Gold hit hard by Fed minutes G

06-01-2022 13:29 GMT by Craig Erlam

January blues

It's been something of a downbeat day in the markets, something we may see more of this morning as the January blues kick in. The omicron relief trade appears to have played out now and attention has quickly shifted back to the interest rates dilemma, with the economy performing well but not firing on all cylinders, the labor market extremely tight and inflation at risk of getting out of control. Central bank policymakers would ordinarily like to be more patient during this stage of the recove

06-01-2022 13:21 GMT by Craig Erlam

Yen edges below 116, inflation next

The Japanese yen has edged higher and is back below the 116 level. Still, the yen remains vulnerable, especially with US treasury yields moving higher.

06-01-2022 12:43 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro yawns as German factory orders jump

The euro is showing little movement, as it trades just above the 1.13 line. German Factory Orders recovered in November, with a robust gain of 3.7% m/m. This follows a sharp decline of -5.8% m/m in October.

06-01-2022 10:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil and gold trading sideways

Oil is bid despite its fall today Oil prices were almost unchanged overnight, despite a massive 10 million barrel increase in US Gasoline Inventories, distillates rising by 4.4 million barrels and Crude Inventories falling only 2.5 million barrels, with Cushing Stocks climbing by about the same. That should all have been bad news for oil prices, implying that omicron is weighing on mobility and consumption.

06-01-2022 05:33 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

The US dollar holds steady

US dollar recovers on hawkish FOMC minutes The US dollar spent most of last night under pressure from the omi-gone rally, until the release of the hawkish FOMC minutes. The committee members felt inflation risks were more persistent and to the upside, and there was general agreement that the taper should be accelerated with three tentative rate hikes pencilled in. With US yields rising after that, the US dollar reversed most of its losses intra-day, leaving it only slightly lower and marking th

06-01-2022 05:10 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Asia follows Wall Street south

Hawkish FOMC minutes send equity markets lower Wall Street had a torrid session as a hawk FOMC minutes highlighted the amount of post-omicron speculative longs positions that were out there. Technology came in for particular attention, the Nasdaq suffering its biggest one-day drop in nearly a year.

06-01-2022 04:51 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

The street was clearly long Omi-gone

US tech stocks sink after FOMC minutes Greetings from day four of managed isolation in New Zealand, and no, I’m not a tennis player. All the chatter overnight was about the implosion on tech stocks in New York after seemingly hawkish FOMC minutes from the December meeting.

06-01-2022 04:34 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

Oil pares gains after EIA, gold rises

Oil Crude prices tentatively pared gains after the EIA crude oil inventory report posted a smaller-than-expected headline draw, while gasoline demand plummeted the most since April 2020. The EIA report was a mixed bag that didn’t have anything to change the tight outlook for the oil market. A headline draw of 2.14 million barrels last week was the sixth consecutive decline, but the focus was on big builds with gasoline and distillate inventories, which were largely due to seasonal factors. Bo

05-01-2022 13:07 GMT by Edward Moya

Tech slide deepens as yields rise, ADP impresses, bitcoin steadies

Tech stocks remained under pressure after a robust private payrolls report sent Treasury yields higher. Equity traders are still betting on a strong US economy and that has them rotating out of big-tech and embracing cyclicals. Ahead of what will likely be some rather hawkish Fed minutes, with the exception of the rotation trade, US stocks are struggling for direction. The first half of the year will be all about a strong US growth outlook that should benefit cyclical stocks, but a sustained p

05-01-2022 12:51 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro recaptures 1.13, German PMI declines

The euro started the New Year with sharp losses, but the currency has rebounded on Wednesday, posting gains of 0.44% and punching above the 1.13 level. German Services PMI contracts Germany's service sector showed contraction in December, falling below the 50-level for the first time in eight months. The PMI fell from 52.7 to 48.7 points.

05-01-2022 12:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil running on empty gold eyes FOMC

Oil running on fumes The oil price recovery may be starting to run on fumes after OPEC+ confirmed what markets had been pricing in over the last couple of weeks; that omicron won't have an overly detrimental impact on crude demand. In continuing its 400,000 barrels per day, monthly increases, the group offered further comfort to investors that the economic impact is likely to be minor and short-lived. The question now is whether the group can meet quotas which have reportedly been a challenge

05-01-2022 10:53 GMT by Craig Erlam

Equities push higher as interest rate concerns resurface

Another positive session in Europe on Wednesday, as investors take the wobble in US tech a day earlier in their stride. Markets remain optimistic about Omicron Investors eventually got their Santa rally and it seems that optimism has carried through into the new year. Evidence that omicron is not as severe as previous strains, despite spreading far faster, is offering hope that restrictions will be short-lived and the economic damage minimal. As I've said previously though, we can often read

05-01-2022 10:43 GMT by Craig Erlam

Pound edges higher on Johnson Covid remarks

The British pound has posted slight gains on Wednesday. GBP/USD rose to 1.3557 on Tuesday, marking a 7-week high. Johnson says no to further restrictions The British pound ended 2021 on a strong note, gaining more than 2% in the last two weeks of the year.

05-01-2022 10:15 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 278)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam previews the day's market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the markets start to the year, OPEC+ and previewed the Fed minutes.

05-01-2022 07:54 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD - building permits, FOMC minutes next

The Canadian dollar is trading slightly above the 1.27 line in the European session. Looking at today's schedule, Canada Building Permits for November is expected to accelerate to 2.3%, up from 1.3% a month earlier.

05-01-2022 07:16 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil rallies, gold gains ground

OPEC+ can’t dent oil Oil prices rallied overnight, despite OPEC+ announcing its pre-planned 400,000 bpd increase in monthly production. The omicron is omi-gone trade continued to hold sway, with its brighter outlook for world growth and oil consumption lifting oil prices, aided by larger than expected drawdown from private US API Crude Inventories. Brent crude rose by 1.60% to USD 80.15 overnight, with WTI climbing by 1.60% as well to USD 77.20 a barrel.

05-01-2022 05:28 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

A mixed US dollar performance

US dollar gets lift from rising US bond yields The US dollar had a mixed night, rising versus the major currencies and the Asian currency grouping, as firm US bond yields sparked yield differential nerves. Conversely, the same post-omicron sentiment propelling stock markets and bond yields higher had a positive effect on the usual sentiment barometers.

05-01-2022 05:15 GMT by Jeffrey Halley

All news & analysis