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AUD/USD - Aussie soars after RBA shocks with 25-bp hike
RBA unexpectedly raises rates by 25 bp AUD/USD jumps 1% Federal Reserve widely expected to follow with 25 bp hike The Australian dollar has racked up sharp gains today. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6691, up 0.93%. RBA surprises with 25 bp hike, Aussie surges The Reserve Bank of Australia has a knack for surprising the markets, and today's rate hike certainly qualified.
02-05-2023 06:07 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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RBA Update: An unexpected hike triggered a squeeze on AUD/USD
RBA surprised the market with a 25 basis points hike to bring the policy cash rate to 3.85% Emphasis on inflation targeting over concerns about the heightened risk of slower growth AUD/USD breached above the 50-day moving average, resurgence of short-term upside momentum. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has surprised market participants’ view of a second consecutive pause of its key policy cash rate with a hike of 25 basis points to bring it to 3.85%. Concerns about sticky inflation and ent
02-05-2023 02:19 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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AUD/USD: Bulls capped by weak China manufacturing PMI & RBA
ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures implied a further pause in the RBA cash rate through 2023. A contraction in China NBS Manufacturing PMI for Apr may reinforce RBA’s cautious stance. AUD/USD remains below the downward-sloping 50-day moving average. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will decide later today on its latest monetary policy decision where the market participants are expecting a second consecutive pause on the key policy cash interest rate at 3.60% after it hiked ten times from
02-05-2023 00:29 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Strong dollar weakens commodities, Cryptos lower as banking drama dies down
Poor PMI data from China drive crude demand concerns Gold struggles as yields surge; 10-year Treasury yield rises 14.4 basis points to 3.566% Bitcoin falls 3.8% to $28,200 Oil The ISM manufacturing report showed prices paid surged to the highest level since July as steel, copper, plastics, aluminum and diesel. The economy appears to be weakening at a slower pace and that should be good news for the crude demand outlook.  Crude prices are paring losses on optimism the economy can strengthen now
01-05-2023 14:44 GMT by Edward Moya
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Too Big to Fail gets Bigger, ISM reminds us to focus on inflation
Treasury yields surge as sentiment improves, Meta kicks off massive five-part bond sale  ISM Manufacturing Report's Prices Paid surged to 53.2 v 49.0 estimate Stocks mixed over banking takeover and inflation reminders Wall Street is breathing a sigh of relief as the largest US lender, JPMorgan, will acquire First Republic Bank.  It is starting to look like a few major banking issues will not end up leading to a banking crisis.  In less than two months, the US has seen three of the top 30 banks
01-05-2023 11:53 GMT by Edward Moya
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AUD/USD jumps, RBA likely to pause
Markets widely expect RBA to pause rates Fed expected to raise rates by 25 bp US ISM Mfg. PMI contracts but beats estimate The Australian dollar has started the week with gains.
01-05-2023 11:30 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY extends gains post-BoJ meeting
Bank of Japan meeting weighing on yen JP Morgan buys First Republic assets USD/JPY continues to rally and is trading at 136.84, up 0.40%. BoJ signals change is coming The Bank of Japan didn't change any policy settings at Friday's meeting, which was the first to be chaired by New Governor Kazuo Ueda. The yen took a tumble of 1.3% and the downward spiral has continued on Monday, with USD/JPY rising as high as 136.98.
01-05-2023 08:26 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/CAD - Canadian dollar edges lower ahead of US, Canadian Mfg. PMIs
Canada's GDP rose 0.1% in March US, Canada to release Manufacturing PMIs After a 2 day mini-rally, the Canadian dollar is lower on Monday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3569, up 0.20%. Canada's GDP ekes out 0.1% gain Canada's GDP came in at a paltry 0.1% in February, missing the 0.2% estimate and weaker than the upwardly revised 0.6% in January, according to Statistics Canada.
01-05-2023 06:01 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Week Ahead - Brace Yourself (Fed, ECB, NFP, Peak Earnings)
US This week will be extremely busy as we have an FOMC decision, the nonfarm payroll report, peak earnings season, all while Wall Street keeps an eye on the banking industry to see if any news stresses arise.  The FOMC meeting is expected to have policymakers deliver one more quarter-point rate rise, possibly leaving the door open for one more. Disinflation trends need to show they are firmly entrenched for the Fed to take their foot off the tightening pedals.
28-04-2023 15:42 GMT by Edward Moya
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Oil tries to find a bottom, Gold wavers, Bitcoin softens
US Oil rig counts rise by two to 591 (Gas rigs up 2 to 161) Gold sub $2000 as yields slide, 10-year Treasury yield falls 8.1 bps to 3.439% Bitcoin falls 1% to $29,344 Oil The oil market selloff got out of control.  Technical selling was not going to end until they filled the gap made from the OPEC+ production cut announcement earlier this month.  The pulse of the US economy is not too bad if you ask the Atlanta Fed and if the US economy comes anywhere close to growing at 1.7% in the second qua
28-04-2023 15:22 GMT by Edward Moya
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Stocks rally on earnings and despite sticky core PCE inflation
Wall Street does not want to let the S&P 500 bears win.  US stocks are holding onto gains after a mixed round of economic data locked expectations for the Fed to deliver one more rate hike and as banking concerns might allow them to signal they will hold going forward.  Overall earnings have impressed this week, with tech leading the charge.  Even with Amazon’s downbeat call that suggests weakness with cloud growth, optimism remains for a solid second quarter.   The market has comfortably price
28-04-2023 15:11 GMT by Edward Moya
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EUR/USD dips below 1.10 after weak German GDP, inflation next
German and eurozone GDP slowed and missed the estimates Markets await US Core PCE Price Index, German CPI EUR/USD is trading at 1.0983 in the European session, down 0.39% on the day German CPI expected to remain steady The trading week wraps up with key inflation releases on both sides of the pond. Germany, the bellwether of the eurozone, releases CPI later today.
28-04-2023 07:13 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY surges after BoJ maintains policy, inflation rises
Bank of Japan maintains monetary policy BoJ removes forward guidance and announces policy review Tokyo Core CPI rises higher than expected USD/JPY soars USD/JPY has jumped 1.3% today and is trading at 135.74. Earlier, the yen touched a low of 135.86, its lowest level since March 10th. BoJ holds policy but changes guidance Today's Bank of Japan meeting was closely watched, as New Governor Ueda chaired his first meeting.
28-04-2023 04:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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BoJ: maintained ultra-easy policy but scrapped forward guidance
No change on key policy short-term interest rate and limits of the Yield Curve Control programme. Scrapped forward guidance to maintain the interest rate at current or lower levels Need one and half-year to conduct a review of monetary policy guidance. USD/JPY and Nikkei 225 rallied; watch the 135.30 key short-term resistance on USD/JPY. The Bank of Japan has maintained its key policy short-term policy interest rate as expected at -0.10% and kept the limits of its Yield Curve Control (YCC
28-04-2023 01:23 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Stocks rally on earnings and mixed data; Commodities rise
Fed rate hike odds are now once again pricing in a quarter-point rate rise by mid-year Fed's preferred core gauge of prices hit the quickest pace in a year 2-year Treasury yield rises 14.4 basis points to 4.095% US stocks are rallying on strong earnings and on optimism that the economy will gradually soften and bring down inflation. The Fed will be able to move forward with one, perhaps two more rate hikes, but then that should be it.
27-04-2023 14:49 GMT by Edward Moya
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EUR/USD - US Preliminary GDP dips, German CPI next
US GDP slips to 1.1% in the fourth quarter US unemployment claims fall sharply First Republic Bank struggling to survive Markets await US Core PCE Price Index, German CPI EUR/USD is trading at 1.1021, down 0.18% on the day. US GDP declines, jobless claims fall Today's US releases were a mixed bag. Preliminary GDP in the first quarter slowed to 1.1%, following a downwardly revised 2.6% gain in the fourth quarter and well short of the estimate of 2.0%.
27-04-2023 11:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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AUD/USD stems the bleeding, US eyes GDP and jobless claims
Market pricing for RBA pause jumps higher US releases GDP, unemployment claims today Banking turmoil lengthens odds of Fed hike The Australian dollar is in positive territory today, ending a nasty slide of 100 points and falling to a 6-week low. The Aussie is trading at 0.6621, up 0.28% on the day.
27-04-2023 06:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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