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Oil tries to find a bottom, Gold wavers, Bitcoin softens
US Oil rig counts rise by two to 591 (Gas rigs up 2 to 161) Gold sub $2000 as yields slide, 10-year Treasury yield falls 8.1 bps to 3.439% Bitcoin falls 1% to $29,344 Oil The oil market selloff got out of control.  Technical selling was not going to end until they filled the gap made from the OPEC+ production cut announcement earlier this month.  The pulse of the US economy is not too bad if you ask the Atlanta Fed and if the US economy comes anywhere close to growing at 1.7% in the second qua
by Edward Moya
Stocks rally on earnings and despite sticky core PCE inflation
Wall Street does not want to let the S&P 500 bears win.  US stocks are holding onto gains after a mixed round of economic data locked expectations for the Fed to deliver one more rate hike and as banking concerns might allow them to signal they will hold going forward.  Overall earnings have impressed this week, with tech leading the charge.  Even with Amazon’s downbeat call that suggests weakness with cloud growth, optimism remains for a solid second quarter.   The market has comfortably price
by Edward Moya
EUR/USD dips below 1.10 after weak German GDP, inflation next
German and eurozone GDP slowed and missed the estimates Markets await US Core PCE Price Index, German CPI EUR/USD is trading at 1.0983 in the European session, down 0.39% on the day German CPI expected to remain steady The trading week wraps up with key inflation releases on both sides of the pond. Germany, the bellwether of the eurozone, releases CPI later today.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY surges after BoJ maintains policy, inflation rises
Bank of Japan maintains monetary policy BoJ removes forward guidance and announces policy review Tokyo Core CPI rises higher than expected USD/JPY soars USD/JPY has jumped 1.3% today and is trading at 135.74. Earlier, the yen touched a low of 135.86, its lowest level since March 10th. BoJ holds policy but changes guidance Today's Bank of Japan meeting was closely watched, as New Governor Ueda chaired his first meeting.
by Kenneth Fisher
BoJ: maintained ultra-easy policy but scrapped forward guidance
No change on key policy short-term interest rate and limits of the Yield Curve Control programme. Scrapped forward guidance to maintain the interest rate at current or lower levels Need one and half-year to conduct a review of monetary policy guidance. USD/JPY and Nikkei 225 rallied; watch the 135.30 key short-term resistance on USD/JPY. The Bank of Japan has maintained its key policy short-term policy interest rate as expected at -0.10% and kept the limits of its Yield Curve Control (YCC
by Kelvin Wong
Stocks rally on earnings and mixed data; Commodities rise
Fed rate hike odds are now once again pricing in a quarter-point rate rise by mid-year Fed's preferred core gauge of prices hit the quickest pace in a year 2-year Treasury yield rises 14.4 basis points to 4.095% US stocks are rallying on strong earnings and on optimism that the economy will gradually soften and bring down inflation. The Fed will be able to move forward with one, perhaps two more rate hikes, but then that should be it.
by Edward Moya
EUR/USD - US Preliminary GDP dips, German CPI next
US GDP slips to 1.1% in the fourth quarter US unemployment claims fall sharply First Republic Bank struggling to survive Markets await US Core PCE Price Index, German CPI EUR/USD is trading at 1.1021, down 0.18% on the day. US GDP declines, jobless claims fall Today's US releases were a mixed bag. Preliminary GDP in the first quarter slowed to 1.1%, following a downwardly revised 2.6% gain in the fourth quarter and well short of the estimate of 2.0%.
by Kenneth Fisher
AUD/USD stems the bleeding, US eyes GDP and jobless claims
Market pricing for RBA pause jumps higher US releases GDP, unemployment claims today Banking turmoil lengthens odds of Fed hike The Australian dollar is in positive territory today, ending a nasty slide of 100 points and falling to a 6-week low. The Aussie is trading at 0.6621, up 0.28% on the day.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY - Yen eyes Tokyo CPI, US GDP
Tokyo Core CPI expected to remain unchanged at 3.2% US to release unemployment claims and GDP BoJ's 2-day meeting begins today USD/JPY is trading quietly at 133.84, up 0.13% on the day. The yen's lack of movement could change today with a host of key releases.
by Kenneth Fisher
Gold has not lost its glitter
Conflicting macro news flow has capped gold in a short-term range-bound movement. 1-year rolling uptrend of gold versus most major fiat currencies remains intact. Lower 10-year US Treasury real yield may provide an impetus for gold bulls. The recent movement in the price of gold has started to falter from its recent 52-week high of US$2,048 per ounce reached on 13 April 2023.
by Kelvin Wong
Oil loses OPEC+ gains, Gold rally falters, Cryptos rally on banking woes
Oil tumbles on recessionary fears Gold struggles as yields push higher Bitcoin recaptures $29,000 Oil Crude prices just saw all of its gains from the OPEC+ surprise production cut erased as macro backdrop has become a disaster. Oil has been in freefall over a challenging economic environment, banking jitters, disappointment with China’s reopening, fears of overtightening by the Fed, and on expectation Permian basin production has yet to peak. WTI crude pared losses after a bullish EIA report sh
by Edward Moya
Stocks supported by mega-cap tech earnings but dragged down by banking woes
Stocks weighed down on banking jitters Fed expectations widely swinging back and forth House expected to vote on debt limit today; Senate Dems signaled first major bill dead on arrival Yesterday, a small little bank was able to take down Wall Street. ​ After the close, a double dose of robust mega-cap tech earnings helped stabilize that ship. Stock traders are breathing a sigh of relief after Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet tentatively helped alleviate growth concerns and that tech’s stron
by Edward Moya
NZD/USD dips on banking worries, NZ business confidence next
First Republic Bank's shares plunge NZD/USD falls to one-month low New Zealand releases business confidence on Thursday First Republic Bank woes continue Has the bank crisis resurfaced? There is plenty of concern in the financial markets as First Republic Bank's shares continue to swoon.
by Kenneth Fisher
EUR/USD rebounds as German consumer confidence improves
German consumer confidence rises EUR/USD pushes above 1.10 EUR/USD is trading at 1.1040, up 0.60% on the day German consumer confidence brightens German consumer confidence continued its upswing heading into May. The German GfK consumer sentiment index rose to -25.7, up from -29.3 in April and above the estimate of -27.5 points.
by Kenneth Fisher
AUD/USD falls below 0.66 on lower inflation, banking jitters
AUD/USD drops to 6-week low Australian inflation falls in Q4 First Republic shares slide by 50% AUD/USD is trading at 0.6606, down 0.31%. Earlier, AUD/USD fell to a low of 0.6595, its lowest level since March 15th. Australian inflation heads south Australia's inflation levels have been falling and the downward trend continued in the first quarter.
by Kenneth Fisher
Gold and Bitcoin rally as Bank worries return; Oil lower
Oil getting crushed as the demand outlook continues to deteriorate Gold surges as Fed hike bets no longer fully price in a quarter-point rate rise Bitcoin finds some tentative support at the $27,200 level Oil Oil prices slumped as the dollar rallied and crude demand signals remained mostly bearish as Halliburton signaled that customers are clearly motivated to produce more oil and gas. The one positive news for crude was the upbeat outlook from JetBlue on robust demand trends in the second quar
by Edward Moya
Risk Aversion on The Good, the bad and the Ugly Earnings
Fighting for survival, First Republic considers divesting up to $100 billion in asset sales GM earnings a bright spot in what is becoming a very down day on Wall Street Consumer Confidence expectations trigger recession concerns US stocks are softening after a mixed bag of earnings was accompanied by the return of banking jitters and news that President Biden will run for re-election. Overall earnings are coming in better-than-expected, but the consumer is weakening and very concerned about the
by Edward Moya
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