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Canadian dollar edges higher as Ivey PMI expansion continues

Canada's Ivey PMI expands for fourth month in a row Fed raises rates, markets expect a cut in September US nonfarm payrolls expected to fall below 200K In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3585, down 0.23% on the day. Canada's Ivey PMI expands for 4th straight month Canada's Ivey PMI, a key indicator of business activity, continued to show expansion, with readings above 50.0 for a fourth successive month. The PMI eased from 58.2 to 56.8 in April but beat the consensus of 54.

04-05-2023 11:01 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/CHF - Swiss franc hits 16-week high on dovish Fed

Swiss inflation expected to rise to 0.5% Swiss franc's appreciation raises concerns at SNB Fed raises rates by 25 bp USD/CHF is trading at 0.8872 today, up 0.32%. The pair is recovering after the Swiss franc surged by 1% a day earlier. USD/CHF falls close to 0.88 line The Swiss franc pummelled the US dollar on Wednesday and USD/CHF fell as low as 0.8820 today, its lowest level since January 21st.

04-05-2023 09:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro craters after the ECB signaled they are almost done tightening

ECB will ensure that the policy rates will be brought to levels sufficiently restrictive ECB expects to discontinue the reinvestments under the APP as of July ECB slows rate hiking pace to 25bps (as expected), bringing key rate to 3.75% The ECB kept the door open for more hikes, but it looks like they are positioning for the June or July meeting to take rates to a restrictive level.

04-05-2023 08:40 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD edges lower, ECB expected to raise rates

ECB expected to raise rates by 25 bp Federal Reserve hikes rates by 25 bp Powell signals a pause in June EUR/USD is trading quietly on Thursday, ahead of the ECB decision later today. ECB expected to hike, but by how much? All eyes are the ECB, which is expected to raise rates at today's meeting. The burning question remains will the central bank increase rates by 25 or 50 basis points?

04-05-2023 06:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

The Fed is done hiking rates, dollar bears in control, Commodities mixed

Pricing of swaps were volatile during the FOMC decision, settling at a 6.3% for a quarter-point hike at the June 14th meeting Dollar weaker across the board as the yen surges 1.1% Oil crushed as supply and demand indicators remain bearish The Fed’s tenth straight rate hike will likely be the last one in this cycle. The Fed is concerned that tighter credit conditions will weigh on economic activity and hiring, while helping maintain disinflation trends. Credit tightening is about to cripple th

03-05-2023 15:55 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - US ISM Services and ADP seal the deal for the Fed's last hike

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and our new co-host Trader Nick. They discuss the ISM Services report, an impressive private payrolls report, Oil's bearish drivers, and cryptos.

03-05-2023 14:50 GMT by Edward Moya

May Market Preview Video - Fed Decision, US Jobs Report, Banks, Earnings, Oil

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam highlights five things that he believes investors will be closely tracking over the next month.

03-05-2023 13:49 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY - Yen surges ahead of Fed rate decision

Fed likely to raise rates by 25 bp Bank turmoil continues as two US regional banks see shares plunge USD/JPY has declined by 1% The Japanese yen continues to show strong volatility, which started on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 135.14, down 1.04% on the day. Fed expected to deliver final rate hike The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision later today, and the markets are confident that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points, which would bring the

03-05-2023 11:38 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

A busy Fed Day morning

Last round of data supports one last 25bp rate rise today Treasury announces buybacks in 2024 WTI crude plunges below as demand fears grow US stocks are slightly higher as the service sector continues to soften, bolstering expectations that the Fed will be ready to pause tightening after delivering one last rate hike. The economy is weakening, the labor market is softening and that seems to be enough to convince a lot of traders that today's quarter-point rate rise to 5.25% will mark the termi

03-05-2023 10:56 GMT by Edward Moya

New Zealand dollar hits 2-week high, Fed poised to hike

New Zealand's job numbers beat estimates Fed widely expected to deliver 25-bp hike NZD/USD extends gains NZD/USD has extended its gains and is trading at 0.6219, up 0.18%. Earlier, NZD/USD touched a high of 0.6249, its highest level since April 19. New Zealand employment data shines New Zealand's labour market hasn't missed a step, despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's aggressive tightening campaign.

03-05-2023 08:49 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

All eyes on the Fed as investors fret about US regional banks

The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision later today and investors will be hanging on their every word in light of recent banking sector instability. Today was always likely to mark the end of the US central bank's tightening cycle - not that it has explicitly signaled this - but we've now reached a stage in which every rate hike could have unwanted and unintended consequences. Turbulence in the banking system in March is evidence of that and the rescue of First Republ

03-05-2023 07:50 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil takes a tumble, gold eyes Fed

Bank woes send oil prices tumbling once more Oil prices have been crushed again over the last 24 hours as US regional bank shares sold off heavily and fuelled fears of a more significant economic downturn this year. The warning signs are there that investors are extremely anxious about the global economic prospects, particularly the US, and the data is slowly catching up which should deter the Fed from hiking today but it in all likelihood won't. The US may be heading for recession and they may

03-05-2023 07:44 GMT by Craig Erlam

Australian dollar pares back gains, RBA's Lowe defends rate hike

RBA Governor Lowe defends rate hike Fed expected to hit rate trigger The Australian dollar is almost unchanged on Wednesday, with AUD/USD trading at 0.6658. RBA's Lowe says rate hike was needed The RBA decision to raise rates by 25 basis points caught the markets off guard, as expectations were high that the central bank would pause rates for a second straight month. The move has raised eyebrows, as just one month ago, the RBA took a pause, saying it needed to monitor the effects of 10 consec

03-05-2023 06:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

A risky lopsided US stock market performance

The year-to-date performance of the S&P 500 has been heavily skewed by the top 8 market cap stocks (FAANG + MNT). US regional bank fear persists despite the takeover of First Republic Bank by JPMorgan Chase. Markets are looking out for clues on the timing of the first Fed rate cut in today’s post-FOMC. The combined top 8 US stocks (in terms of market capitalization) in the S&P 500 under the FAANG + MNT group; (Meta/Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Alphabet/Google, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Tesla) tha

03-05-2023 01:20 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Gold and Bitcoin surges on banking concerns, while oil stumbles

Low trading volumes and a deteriorating outlook send oil prices sharply lower Gold surges above $2000 level as banking concerns return Bitcoin still capped by $30,000 level Oil It got ugly a lot faster than any oil trader expected. Energy traders were turning constructive, even last week, the recent oil bear, Citi’s Ed Morse said ‘were close to a bottom in oil prices.’ Oil is in the danger zone as the banking crisis is crippling the short-term outlook for the economy and driving fears that we

02-05-2023 15:40 GMT by Edward Moya

Sell in May is here as banking weakness returns

Banking woes and debt ceiling drama weigh on risk appetite Treasury yields tumble as odds for a potential June hike completely disappear Fed starts two-day meeting, still expected to raise rates by 25bps tomorrow. Sell in May decided it didn’t need to wait for the Fed. Wall Street is quickly hitting the sell button as banking turmoil appears it is not going away anytime soon and was ready to focus on the next weakest link, potentially distressed lenders with tremendous exposure to commercial r

02-05-2023 14:26 GMT by Edward Moya

New Zealand Dollar higher ahead of employment data

New Zealand to release employment for Q4 NZD/USD hits 2-week high Fed expected to raise rates NZD/USD is considerably higher on Tuesday, trading at 0.6203, up 0.57%. Earlier, NZD/USD rose as high as 0.6218, its highest level since April 19th. New Zealand job numbers expected to remain strong New Zealand's labour market has remained robust, despite relentless tightening from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which has raised rates to 5.25%.

02-05-2023 10:00 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Investors cautious ahead of the Fed and ECB later in the week

Investors appear to be treading carefully ahead of some key interest rate announcements this week, most notably the Fed on Wednesday but also the ECB one day later. Eurozone inflation data for April didn't throw up any nasty surprises a couple of days before the central bank makes its decision, rising slightly to 7% as expected, while core stayed stubbornly high at 5.6%. A 25 basis point rate hike is now heavily backed with one or two more to come over the following months.

02-05-2023 09:11 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil prices stabilize, gold consolidates ahead of FOMC

Were fears of oil deficit premature? Oil prices appear to have stabilized in recent days, not far from the middle of the range they traded within from early December to March. The post-OPEC+ gains have now been wiped out which suggests traders are now of the belief that the economic outlook has deteriorated to the extent that the output cut won't create the deficit that was feared when some were calling for $100 oil.

02-05-2023 09:06 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD shrugs as Eurozone inflation steady

Eurozone inflation almost unchanged German retail sales fall by 2.5% Markets upwardly revise odds of Fed hike to 96% EUR/USD is trading quietly at 1.0966, down 0.09%. German retail sales fall by 2.5% The German consumer continues to hold tight to the purse strings, as March retail sales declined by 2.4%, compared to a consensus of 0.4% and -1.3% in February. This marked the fourth decline in five months.

02-05-2023 07:28 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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