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Oil struggling over bank turmoil, gold eyes CPI

Oil struggling to recover after latest turbulence in US regional banks Oil traders clearly remain deeply concerned about the turbulence in the US regional banks and what the consequences could be for the US economy, alongside the ripple effects elsewhere. Twice now we've seen the price plunge on the back of bank failures and so far this time, they haven't had the helping hand of OPEC+ to repair the damage. For the next month, at least, the bullish case for oil may come from fears subsiding aroun

09-05-2023 14:19 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY - Yen shrugs after Japanese wages, household spending fall

Japan's real wages fall for 12th straight month Japan's household spending falls 1.9% Fed sounds warning over tighter bank conditions USD/JPY is almost unchanged today, trading at 135.18. Household spending and wages slip Japan's households are again holding tightly to the purse strings, as household spending fell 1.9% y/y in March, following a 1.6% gain in February. The consensus estimate stood at 0.4%.

09-05-2023 10:13 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD dips on soft retail sales

AUD/USD ends 6-day rally Australian retail sales decline Fed warns that banks are tightening credit The Australian dollar is in negative territory, ending a rally of close to 200 points. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6760, down 0.29% on the day. Australian retail sales decline Australian retail sales posted a decline of 0.6% in the first quarter, following a downwardly revised reading of -0.3% in Q4 2022.

09-05-2023 06:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil continues rebound, Gold awaits CPI, and crypto struggles

Oil exits oversold territory China increases gold reserves for a sixth consecutive month Pepe Coin craters while Bitcoin struggles Oil Oil prices continue to edge higher as the crude demand outlook is pummeled with mixed signals. The latest jobs report wasn’t as good as the headline implied and today’s Fed survey showed loan demand is falling off a cliff. The oil market was extremely oversold and it will probably continue to stabilize as long as Wall Street is still confident the Fed will cut

08-05-2023 16:09 GMT by Edward Moya

Hardly a SLOOS Fest

Mixed session as traders await Wednesday's inflation report Fed's quarterly loan survey showed continued tightening of credit and weaker business loan demand Biden's debt meeting scheduled for Tuesday at 4pm US stocks wavered after a quarterly loan survey showed a first quarter filled with overall tighter credit conditions and much weaker business loan demand. The quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices - SLOOS, for short did not deliver any major surprises with t

08-05-2023 15:54 GMT by Edward Moya

AUD/USD extends gains as business confidence improves

Australian business conditions improve Australian consumer confidence expected to decline AUD/USD continues strong rally The Australian dollar continues its impressive rally which started on May 2nd. AUD/USD has surged 2.6% during that time.

08-05-2023 13:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY drifting ahead of consumer spending and income reports

BoJ minutes focussed on inflation Bank turmoil, debt ceiling weighs on risk appetite Japan to release consumer spending and income The Japanese yen has started the trading week quietly and is trading just below the 135 line. BoJ minutes eye inflation The Bank of Japan released the minutes of the March meeting today. Inflation was, unsurprisingly, a hot topic at the meeting.

08-05-2023 10:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

WTI Oil Technical: Evolving into minor uptrend

Last week’s intra-week loss of -17% has been recovered partially. Positive technical analysis elements sighted; “Morning Star” daily Japanese candlestick. Short-term overbought condition in hourly RSI highlights the risk of a minor pull-back. West Texas Oil Technical Analysis – Minor uptrend intact but risk of a pull-back Fig 1: West Texas Oil trend as of 8 May 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The West Texas Oil (a proxy for the WTI crude oil futures) managed to stage a

08-05-2023 06:38 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Canadian dollar powers to 5-week high on strong job numbers

Canada add 41K new jobs US nonfarm payrolls jump to 253K Canadian dollar surges by 1.2% The Canadian dollar has extended its gains on Monday. USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.3339, down 0.26%. Canada's job market stays hot Canada's labour market defied expectations in April, as the economy added 41,400 jobs, above the March gain of 34,700 and the consensus estimate of 20,000.

08-05-2023 06:35 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Volatile session for commodities and cryptos

After falling almost $20, oil rebounds as demand fears ease Gold tumbles from record highs as Fed rate cut bets get pushed back Bitcoin reverses initial NFP dip and follows broader market rally Oil Oil has found a bottom as risk appetite improves as banking turmoil eases and after employment reports from North America showed significant job strength and defied calls of a looming economic slowdown. After falling $19.74 from the April 12th high, WTI crude has formed a clear bottom. The oil fund

05-05-2023 12:39 GMT by Edward Moya

Labor Market remains resilient (for both the US and Canada)

Hot US NFP report shows 253,000 jobs created in April, prior months massively revised down Robust Canadian employment data doubles forecast Banking worries ease as Regional bank stocks rebound US stocks extended gains after the US nonfarm payroll report showed the labor market remains resilient. Stocks were off to a good start after decent results from Apple and as the regional banks rebounded after getting a nice upgrade from JPMorgan and as some banks/brokerages continue to show deposits are

05-05-2023 12:28 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - Another hot US jobs report, ECB slows rate hikes, BoE next week

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the US jobs report, the ECB rate hike, and the week ahead.

05-05-2023 12:03 GMT by Craig Erlam

Week Ahead - US CPI data eyed while BoE seeks to get inflation back below 10%

US The labor market is showing signs of resilience, but now the focus shifts back to inflation, with focus on the banking space. The banking system doesn't look ‘sound and resilient’ as more banks come under stress. US regulators will eventually be forced to act as the banking crisis worsens and that could mean the further unwinding of more banks. The April inflation report is expected to show that the disinflation process is starting to lose momentum.

05-05-2023 11:34 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CHF - Swiss franc sinks on SNB's Jordan, nonfarm payrolls

SNB's Jordan says cannot exclude further hikes US nonfarm payrolls rise unexpectedly USD/CHF soars by 100 points The Swiss franc has taken riders on a roller-coaster ride this week. On Wednesday, USD/CHF plunged 1% but it has recovered all of these losses on Friday, courtesy of Swiss National Bank President Jordan and a strong nonfarm payrolls release. SNB's Jordan says rate hike on the table.

05-05-2023 09:56 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold - Nearing record highs after what may be the final Fed hike

Craig Erlam discusses how the latest moves by the Fed have impacted gold and whether record highs may be on the cards.

05-05-2023 09:51 GMT by Craig Erlam

Another resilient jobs report could be a huge blow for markets and the Fed

Stock markets are tentatively higher at the end of the week but how they ultimately see it out will depend on the US jobs report just before the opening bell. While the US banking system has probably been the main talking point this week, the two headline events were always the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the jobs report today and that hasn't changed. Cracks have been appearing in the economy recently but not yet to the extent that it appears inflation is likely to sustainably return to tar

05-05-2023 08:10 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil remains volatile, gold eyes nonfarm payrolls

A wild week for oil as economic fears mount amid turbulence in US banks It's not just some regional US banks that have experienced a run recently oil traders have been at it too. The sell-off in March was triggered by the SVB collapse and everything that followed and it was only when OPEC+ stepped in that the price recovered.

05-05-2023 08:05 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD -Euro shrugs off weak eurozone, German data

Eurozone, German data disappoint ECB raises rates by 25 bp US nonfarm payrolls expected to decline EUR/USD is drifting on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1028, up 0.13% on the day. Today's eurozone and German data were a disappointment.

05-05-2023 07:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/CAD extends slide ahead of job reports

Canada's employment change expected to slow US nonfarm payrolls projected to fall to 179,000 Canadian dollar rallies for third straight day The Canadian dollar continues to rally today and has climbed 120 points since Tuesday. Earlier in the day, USD/CAD touched a low of 1.3490, its lowest level since April 21st. Canadian employment change expected to ease The markets will be treated to key employment numbers on both sides of the border later today.

05-05-2023 05:09 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

May the 4th be with you; Regionals need A New Hope

Attack of the oil shorts; Demand outlook slashed as recession risks grow by the day Gold bulls Awaken; Bank contagion fears drive safe-haven flows Bitcoin's regulatory saga; banking jitters unable to fuel larger rally It doesn’t seem like it was a long time ago that we had a full-blown global banking crisis that set Wall Street back for many years. Today, US stocks are falling as bank turmoil is leading to the rapid collapse of PacWest and Western Alliance. Sticky inflation and a slowly coolin

04-05-2023 11:44 GMT by Edward Moya

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