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EUR/GBP Technical: Minor downtrend intact

EUR/GBP is still evolving within a major sideways range since August 2017 with its key resistance and support at 0.9300 and 0.8300. A minor downtrend phase has started to develop from its 3 February 2023 high of 0.8979. Short-term downside momentum remains intact below 0.8750 key short-term resistance. Since the start of this week, the EUR/GBP cross pair has continued its drop by 0.9% to print its current intraweek low of 0.8671 where market participants anticipant that the Bank of England (BoE

11-05-2023 05:19 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Pound swings after US inflation ticks lower

US inflation ticks lower to 4.9% BoE expected to raise rates by 25 bp on Thursday US inflation dips lower The US inflation report for April showed a very small decline. Headline CPI ticked lower to 4.9%, down from 5.0% in March and the consensus estimate of 5.0%. The core rate eased to 5.5%, matching the consensus estimate and a drop below the March reading of 5.6%.

10-05-2023 11:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Investors cautious ahead of key US inflation release

The US inflation report remains front of mind today and we're seeing that reflected in early cautious trading in Europe, with US futures also marginally lower ahead of the open. The fear is that inflation remains more stubborn than the Fed is willing to tolerate in the near term alongside a labour market that is still hot, despite small signs of cracks appearing. The central bank has made it perfectly clear that returning inflation to target over the medium term remains the primary goal whatever

10-05-2023 08:08 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil slips, CPI could make or break gold

Oil slips after retracing back to previous trend lows Oil prices are slipping on Wednesday after partially recovering over the last four days. Crude ran into resistance around the bottom of the December-March range lows which suggests, for now at least, traders are not of the view that OPEC+ output cuts fully offset the difficulties that lie ahead for the global economy which will ultimately weigh on demand. Further action by the cartel or calmer conditions in US banks could see oil prices bounc

10-05-2023 08:08 GMT by Craig Erlam

Australian dollar steady as US inflation falls to 4.9%

US inflation ticks lower to 4.9% Australia releases inflation expectations later today US inflation dips lower The US inflation report for April showed a drop in CPI, but the decline was marginal. Headline CPI ticked lower to 4.9%, down from 5.0% in March and the consensus estimate of 5.0%. The core rate eased to 5.5%, matching the consensus estimate and a drop below the March reading of 5.6%.

10-05-2023 07:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Will US CPI shake up sleepy yen?

US inflation expected to remain at 5.0% BoJ to release Summary of Opinions USD/JPY continues to have a quiet week and is almost unchanged, trading at 135.20. Investors eye BoJ Summary of Opinions The markets will be keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan's Summary of Opinions, which will be released later today. The summaries rarely move the dial on the yen, but this summary could be different, as it covers the April meeting which was the first chaired by Governor Kazuo Ueda.

10-05-2023 06:29 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold Technical: Bounced higher from key short-term support

Gold (XAU/USD) is holding above 2,000 key support ahead of US CPI. Short-term uptrend phase from the 19 April 2023 low remains intact. Next intermediate resistance at 2,075; its current all-time high. In our previous article “Gold has not lost its glitter”, we have highlighted the key macro factors that may have a significant influence in driving the fundamentals and price actions behaviour of Gold (XAU/USD), click here for a recap. Right now, let’s decipher its latest developments through the

10-05-2023 03:44 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Oil gets bullish alongside gold, Bitcoin wavers

Russia claims to come close to delivering on oil cut pledge in April Gold gets groove back as debt ceiling worries simmer Bitcoin hovers near bottom of recent trading range Oil Crude prices went on a rollercoaster ride as energy traders watched a deteriorating demand outlook get countered by some bullish supply news from both the Biden administration and Russia. Oil was lower after disappointing trade from China supported concerns their recovery post-Covid lockdowns continues to disappoint. WT

09-05-2023 15:23 GMT by Edward Moya

Waiting Game: Debt Ceiling Drama to resume, Inflation in focus

Dollar slightly stronger ahead of President Biden's pivotal meeting with congressional leaders NFIB report shows sentiment plunges to weakest levels in a decade Wall Street is hoping lawmakers won't have to resort to a short-term debt limit extension US stocks are mostly lower ahead of what will be the start of a lengthy debt ceiling negotiations and ahead of inflation report that should shows the disinflation process is struggling. No one is expecting any meaningful progress with President Bi

09-05-2023 15:11 GMT by Edward Moya

Investors eye US inflation report on wednesday after disappointing jobs data

We're seeing a slightly softer trading session on Tuesday as investors eye crucial inflation data on Wednesday. We've finally reached the point at which the Federal Reserve may be at the end of its tightening cycle and we can start to look forward to when it can feasibly begin to ease policy in order to offset any shock to the economy. But in order for either of these to occur, we need to see evidence in the data that the Fed is on a path to 2% starting tomorrow. The FOMC will not hesitate to ra

09-05-2023 14:24 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil struggling over bank turmoil, gold eyes CPI

Oil struggling to recover after latest turbulence in US regional banks Oil traders clearly remain deeply concerned about the turbulence in the US regional banks and what the consequences could be for the US economy, alongside the ripple effects elsewhere. Twice now we've seen the price plunge on the back of bank failures and so far this time, they haven't had the helping hand of OPEC+ to repair the damage. For the next month, at least, the bullish case for oil may come from fears subsiding aroun

09-05-2023 14:19 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY - Yen shrugs after Japanese wages, household spending fall

Japan's real wages fall for 12th straight month Japan's household spending falls 1.9% Fed sounds warning over tighter bank conditions USD/JPY is almost unchanged today, trading at 135.18. Household spending and wages slip Japan's households are again holding tightly to the purse strings, as household spending fell 1.9% y/y in March, following a 1.6% gain in February. The consensus estimate stood at 0.4%.

09-05-2023 10:13 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD dips on soft retail sales

AUD/USD ends 6-day rally Australian retail sales decline Fed warns that banks are tightening credit The Australian dollar is in negative territory, ending a rally of close to 200 points. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6760, down 0.29% on the day. Australian retail sales decline Australian retail sales posted a decline of 0.6% in the first quarter, following a downwardly revised reading of -0.3% in Q4 2022.

09-05-2023 06:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil continues rebound, Gold awaits CPI, and crypto struggles

Oil exits oversold territory China increases gold reserves for a sixth consecutive month Pepe Coin craters while Bitcoin struggles Oil Oil prices continue to edge higher as the crude demand outlook is pummeled with mixed signals. The latest jobs report wasn’t as good as the headline implied and today’s Fed survey showed loan demand is falling off a cliff. The oil market was extremely oversold and it will probably continue to stabilize as long as Wall Street is still confident the Fed will cut

08-05-2023 16:09 GMT by Edward Moya

Hardly a SLOOS Fest

Mixed session as traders await Wednesday's inflation report Fed's quarterly loan survey showed continued tightening of credit and weaker business loan demand Biden's debt meeting scheduled for Tuesday at 4pm US stocks wavered after a quarterly loan survey showed a first quarter filled with overall tighter credit conditions and much weaker business loan demand. The quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices - SLOOS, for short did not deliver any major surprises with t

08-05-2023 15:54 GMT by Edward Moya

AUD/USD extends gains as business confidence improves

Australian business conditions improve Australian consumer confidence expected to decline AUD/USD continues strong rally The Australian dollar continues its impressive rally which started on May 2nd. AUD/USD has surged 2.6% during that time.

08-05-2023 13:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY drifting ahead of consumer spending and income reports

BoJ minutes focussed on inflation Bank turmoil, debt ceiling weighs on risk appetite Japan to release consumer spending and income The Japanese yen has started the trading week quietly and is trading just below the 135 line. BoJ minutes eye inflation The Bank of Japan released the minutes of the March meeting today. Inflation was, unsurprisingly, a hot topic at the meeting.

08-05-2023 10:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

WTI Oil Technical: Evolving into minor uptrend

Last week’s intra-week loss of -17% has been recovered partially. Positive technical analysis elements sighted; “Morning Star” daily Japanese candlestick. Short-term overbought condition in hourly RSI highlights the risk of a minor pull-back. West Texas Oil Technical Analysis – Minor uptrend intact but risk of a pull-back Fig 1: West Texas Oil trend as of 8 May 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The West Texas Oil (a proxy for the WTI crude oil futures) managed to stage a

08-05-2023 06:38 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Canadian dollar powers to 5-week high on strong job numbers

Canada add 41K new jobs US nonfarm payrolls jump to 253K Canadian dollar surges by 1.2% The Canadian dollar has extended its gains on Monday. USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.3339, down 0.26%. Canada's job market stays hot Canada's labour market defied expectations in April, as the economy added 41,400 jobs, above the March gain of 34,700 and the consensus estimate of 20,000.

08-05-2023 06:35 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Volatile session for commodities and cryptos

After falling almost $20, oil rebounds as demand fears ease Gold tumbles from record highs as Fed rate cut bets get pushed back Bitcoin reverses initial NFP dip and follows broader market rally Oil Oil has found a bottom as risk appetite improves as banking turmoil eases and after employment reports from North America showed significant job strength and defied calls of a looming economic slowdown. After falling $19.74 from the April 12th high, WTI crude has formed a clear bottom. The oil fund

05-05-2023 12:39 GMT by Edward Moya

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