OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the US jobs report, the ECB rate hike, and the week ahead.
05-05-2023 12:03 GMT
by Craig Erlam
All news & analysis
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US
The labor market is showing signs of resilience, but now the focus shifts back to inflation, with focus on the banking space. The banking system doesn't look ‘sound and resilient’ as more banks come under stress. US regulators will eventually be forced to act as the banking crisis worsens and that could mean the further unwinding of more banks.
The April inflation report is expected to show that the disinflation process is starting to lose momentum.
05-05-2023 11:34 GMT
by Craig Erlam
SNB's Jordan says cannot exclude further hikes
US nonfarm payrolls rise unexpectedly
USD/CHF soars by 100 points
The Swiss franc has taken riders on a roller-coaster ride this week. On Wednesday, USD/CHF plunged 1% but it has recovered all of these losses on Friday, courtesy of Swiss National Bank President Jordan and a strong nonfarm payrolls release.
SNB's Jordan says rate hike on the table.
05-05-2023 09:56 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Craig Erlam discusses how the latest moves by the Fed have impacted gold and whether record highs may be on the cards.
05-05-2023 09:51 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Stock markets are tentatively higher at the end of the week but how they ultimately see it out will depend on the US jobs report just before the opening bell.
While the US banking system has probably been the main talking point this week, the two headline events were always the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the jobs report today and that hasn't changed.
Cracks have been appearing in the economy recently but not yet to the extent that it appears inflation is likely to sustainably return to tar
05-05-2023 08:10 GMT
by Craig Erlam
A wild week for oil as economic fears mount amid turbulence in US banks
It's not just some regional US banks that have experienced a run recently oil traders have been at it too. The sell-off in March was triggered by the SVB collapse and everything that followed and it was only when OPEC+ stepped in that the price recovered.
05-05-2023 08:05 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Eurozone, German data disappoint
ECB raises rates by 25 bp
US nonfarm payrolls expected to decline
EUR/USD is drifting on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1028, up 0.13% on the day.
Today's eurozone and German data were a disappointment.
05-05-2023 07:04 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Canada's employment change expected to slow
US nonfarm payrolls projected to fall to 179,000
Canadian dollar rallies for third straight day
The Canadian dollar continues to rally today and has climbed 120 points since Tuesday. Earlier in the day, USD/CAD touched a low of 1.3490, its lowest level since April 21st.
Canadian employment change expected to ease
The markets will be treated to key employment numbers on both sides of the border later today.
05-05-2023 05:09 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Attack of the oil shorts; Demand outlook slashed as recession risks grow by the day
Gold bulls Awaken; Bank contagion fears drive safe-haven flows
Bitcoin's regulatory saga; banking jitters unable to fuel larger rally
It doesn’t seem like it was a long time ago that we had a full-blown global banking crisis that set Wall Street back for many years. Today, US stocks are falling as bank turmoil is leading to the rapid collapse of PacWest and Western Alliance. Sticky inflation and a slowly coolin
04-05-2023 11:44 GMT
by Edward Moya
Canada's Ivey PMI expands for fourth month in a row
Fed raises rates, markets expect a cut in September
US nonfarm payrolls expected to fall below 200K
In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3585, down 0.23% on the day.
Canada's Ivey PMI expands for 4th straight month
Canada's Ivey PMI, a key indicator of business activity, continued to show expansion, with readings above 50.0 for a fourth successive month. The PMI eased from 58.2 to 56.8 in April but beat the consensus of 54.
04-05-2023 11:01 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Swiss inflation expected to rise to 0.5%
Swiss franc's appreciation raises concerns at SNB
Fed raises rates by 25 bp
USD/CHF is trading at 0.8872 today, up 0.32%. The pair is recovering after the Swiss franc surged by 1% a day earlier.
USD/CHF falls close to 0.88 line
The Swiss franc pummelled the US dollar on Wednesday and USD/CHF fell as low as 0.8820 today, its lowest level since January 21st.
04-05-2023 09:36 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
ECB will ensure that the policy rates will be brought to levels sufficiently restrictive
ECB expects to discontinue the reinvestments under the APP as of July
ECB slows rate hiking pace to 25bps (as expected), bringing key rate to 3.75%
The ECB kept the door open for more hikes, but it looks like they are positioning for the June or July meeting to take rates to a restrictive level.
04-05-2023 08:40 GMT
by Edward Moya
ECB expected to raise rates by 25 bp
Federal Reserve hikes rates by 25 bp
Powell signals a pause in June
EUR/USD is trading quietly on Thursday, ahead of the ECB decision later today.
ECB expected to hike, but by how much?
All eyes are the ECB, which is expected to raise rates at today's meeting. The burning question remains will the central bank increase rates by 25 or 50 basis points?
04-05-2023 06:14 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Pricing of swaps were volatile during the FOMC decision, settling at a 6.3% for a quarter-point hike at the June 14th meeting
Dollar weaker across the board as the yen surges 1.1%
Oil crushed as supply and demand indicators remain bearish
The Fed’s tenth straight rate hike will likely be the last one in this cycle. The Fed is concerned that tighter credit conditions will weigh on economic activity and hiring, while helping maintain disinflation trends. Credit tightening is about to cripple th
03-05-2023 15:55 GMT
by Edward Moya
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and our new co-host Trader Nick. They discuss the ISM Services report, an impressive private payrolls report, Oil's bearish drivers, and cryptos.
03-05-2023 14:50 GMT
by Edward Moya
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam highlights five things that he believes investors will be closely tracking over the next month.
03-05-2023 13:49 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Fed likely to raise rates by 25 bp
Bank turmoil continues as two US regional banks see shares plunge
USD/JPY has declined by 1%
The Japanese yen continues to show strong volatility, which started on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 135.14, down 1.04% on the day.
Fed expected to deliver final rate hike
The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision later today, and the markets are confident that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points, which would bring the
03-05-2023 11:38 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Last round of data supports one last 25bp rate rise today
Treasury announces buybacks in 2024
WTI crude plunges below as demand fears grow
US stocks are slightly higher as the service sector continues to soften, bolstering expectations that the Fed will be ready to pause tightening after delivering one last rate hike. The economy is weakening, the labor market is softening and that seems to be enough to convince a lot of traders that today's quarter-point rate rise to 5.25% will mark the termi
03-05-2023 10:56 GMT
by Edward Moya
New Zealand's job numbers beat estimates
Fed widely expected to deliver 25-bp hike
NZD/USD extends gains
NZD/USD has extended its gains and is trading at 0.6219, up 0.18%. Earlier, NZD/USD touched a high of 0.6249, its highest level since April 19.
New Zealand employment data shines
New Zealand's labour market hasn't missed a step, despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's aggressive tightening campaign.
03-05-2023 08:49 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision later today and investors will be hanging on their every word in light of recent banking sector instability.
Today was always likely to mark the end of the US central bank's tightening cycle - not that it has explicitly signaled this - but we've now reached a stage in which every rate hike could have unwanted and unintended consequences.
Turbulence in the banking system in March is evidence of that and the rescue of First Republ
03-05-2023 07:50 GMT
by Craig Erlam