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Oil lower on strong dollar, Gold volatile, Bitcoin at $29k
Oil's worst slide in a month as demand concerns grow Surging yields weigh on gold Binance had a 16,000 bitcoin sell order before the 4am plunge Oil Oil prices declined as the dollar rebounded and after a mixed oil inventory report raised demand concerns. ​ Gasoline demand showed unexpected weakness as inventories posted a surprise build of 1.3 million bpd vs an expected drop of 1.5 million bpd. ​ The headline draw of 4.5 million barrels was larger-than-expected, but that was because it was the
by Edward Moya
Tesla Earnings, Stocks flat as investors digest more earnings and the Fed's Beige Book
US stocks ended flat after investors digested multiple earnings, a Beige book that didn’t show a recession was anywhere near, and ahead of what will probably be a steady stream of hawkish Fed speak.  Investors are staring down a list of Fed speakers that will probably push back on Fed’s Bostic call that they could hike once more and be done.  Fed’s Williams, Waller, Mester, Bowman and Harker might not agree with Bostic, while Goolsbee and Cook may lean towards him.
by Edward Moya
New Zealand dollar eyes fourth-quarter inflation
New Zealand's inflation estimate for Q1 stands at 7.1% Fed's Bostic expects one more rate hike NZD/USD showing limited movement New Zealand inflation expected to remain above 7% New Zealand releases inflation for the first quarter later today. It has been a light data week so far in both New Zealand and the US, which explains why NZD/USD is almost unchanged this week.
by Kenneth Fisher
Investors turn more hawkish amid another stubborn inflation report
Inflation remains a major concern for central banks and recent data highlights how far there is to go, something policymakers will be hoping changes very soon. A major headache for the Bank of England There's no getting away from another rate hike from the BoE next month after inflation unexpectedly remained above 10% in March. This followed the labour market report on Tuesday which showed wages also remaining stubbornly higher, a combination that will make justifying not hiking very difficult f
by Craig Erlam
Oil slips on Chinese data, gold falls as rate expectations rise
Oil testing post-OPEC+ gap open Oil prices are off almost 2% today and earlier tested the gap open from a couple of weeks ago. That came on the back of the surprise weekend OPEC+ output cut which propelled the price back towards the highs of the previous few months, where it has since hovered around. Today's sell-off comes on the back of some selling pressure yesterday following the Chinese industrial production data and slightly more hawkish expectations on interest rates.
by Craig Erlam
EUR/USD - Euro slips as eurozone inflation slides
Eurozone inflation fell to 6.9%, while the core rate rose to 5.7% Goldman Sachs expects ECB rate hike in May EUR/USD has fallen 0.50% and is trading at 1.0920 Eurozone inflation drops to 6.9% Eurozone inflation numbers were unchanged in the final estimate. Headline inflation dropped to 6.9% in March, down sharply from 8.5% a month earlier.
by Kenneth Fisher
GBP/USD edges higher as UK inflation higher than expected
UK inflation falls to 10.1%, higher than expected BoE likely to raise rates in May Three Fed members will deliver public remarks today GBP/USD is trading at 1.2445, up 0.16% on the day. UK inflation stays above 10% UK inflation remains hot and stubbornly high. In March, headline CPI dropped to 10.1%, down from 10.4% but above the consensus estimate of 9.8%.
by Kenneth Fisher
Time to take note of Japan’s stock market again
Emerging markets and China’s risk premiums over Japan have been narrowed. Japan is considered a potential defensive play as its stock market valuation is much lowered than the rest of the world. Nikkei 225 is consolidating within a long-term uptrend phase in place since March 2009. The Japanese stock market has underperformed and languished against the US since the infamous burst of Japan’s property bubble in early 1990 that led to two decades of sticky deflation. Even though, the implementatio
by Kelvin Wong
WTI crude attracts buyers at $80, Gold defends $2,000, Bitcoin recaptures $30,000
Oil Oil struggled early as the details behind China’s impressive first quarter included lackluster March industrial output.  A key German investor sentiment survey also weighed on crude, as optimism for the eurozone’s largest economy remains downbeat in the coming quarters.  Oil isn't getting any good news here and that means prices could continue to hover around the $80 a barrel level, or even see a tentative dip below if sellers get some help from a strong dollar.  The initial wave of weakness
by Edward Moya
Stocks waver on earnings; China's economy awakens, Brookfield defaults
Wall Street is becoming a little bit more optimistic as more companies delivered strong earnings (Bank of America, BNY Mellon, J&J, & Lockheed Martin posted strong results, while Goldman Sachs was the lone weak report) and as China’s recovery is clearly here but not clicking on all cylinders.  Today’s mood is about profitability concerns may have been overdone for the quarter, but Fed tightening fears won’t be going away anytime soon.  If earnings continue to impress, too much of a good thing wi
by Edward Moya
USD/CAD - Canadian dollar shrugs as inflation falls
Canada's inflation falls to 4.3%, as expected USD/CAD response is muted The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged, trading at 1.3388 in North America. Canada's inflation falls to 4.3% There was good news on the inflation front, as headline CPI fell to 4.3% in March, down sharply from 5.2% a month earlier and dropping to its lowest level since August 2021. The reading matched the forecast, which explained why the Canadian dollar's response has been muted.
by Kenneth Fisher
GBP/USD - Pound rebounds as wage growth remains high, CPI expected to dip
UK unemployment claims rise UK wage growth higher than expected UK Inflation is expected to fall below 10% In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2419, up 0.34% UK employment report a mix The UK employment report for March was a mixed bag. The number of unemployed persons jumped by 28,200, after a decline of 18,000 in February and higher than the estimate of -11,800.
by Kenneth Fisher
Australian dollar gets boost from strong Chinese GDP
China's GDP expands by 4.5% AUD/USD responds with gains RBA minutes indicate pause was a close call The Australian dollar is showing strong gains on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6738, up 0.55% on the day. Aussie rises as Chinese GDP outperforms China is Australia's largest trading partner, which means that the Australian dollar is very sensitive to Chinese economic data.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil treading water, gold stays close to $2000
Can oil break above five-month range after OPEC+ cut Oil is continuing to tread water around the five-month highs, an area it has failed to surpass in the aftermath of the latest OPEC+ output cut. Rather than propel the price towards $100 as some feared (it could still happen, of course), the decision appears to have just moved the price back to previous ranges that the cartel was seemingly comfortable with. The next step may depend on global growth and whether the economy can weather the recent
by Craig Erlam
Mixed data for China and the UK sees markets tread water in Europe
We're seeing relatively flat trade again on Tuesday amid mixed economic data from China overnight. The world's second-largest economy grew by 4.5% in the first quarter as it emerged from zero-Covid restrictions to join the rest of the world in living with the disease. The transition was never likely to be perfectly smooth but much of the data we've seen in recent months suggests it's been relatively successful. But the data on Tuesday also highlights how uneven the recovery has been.
by Craig Erlam
Potential tailwind for Asian equities as major downtrend on the US dollar remains intact
US Dollar Index managed to hold its February 2023 low of 100.95 but the major downtrend remains intact. Further US dollar weakness supports the potential outperformance of the rest of world equities against the US S&P 500. Hong Kong 33 has evolved into a short-term uptrend after hitting a 12-week low at end of March. In the past two weeks, geopolitical tension has increased and reverberated across different facets such as the ongoing US-China technology trade war involving the supply of semicon
by Kelvin Wong
Oil and Gold lower on strong dollar, Crypto down as banking turmoil eases
Energy traders await Key China data Gold down but not out Crypto down on strong dollar and easing banking turmoil Oil Crude prices are in trouble as the dollar appears poised for a major rebound as the Fed might be in position to do a lot more tightening. The economy is showing resilience and while normally that is good news for the crude demand outlook, that is disrupting calls for a peak in Fed tightening.  The oil market will soon have to deal with recession fears but for now it should be a
by Edward Moya
Stocks are wavering as Fed rate hike bets grow, Empire Strikes Back, EUR/USD tumbles below 1.10
Treasury yields higher across curve, with the 2-year rising 8.5 bps to 4.184% Empire surges and supports case for more Fed rate hikes EUR/USD tumbles below 1.10 Stocks are wavering as the risks of more tightening grow after New York factory activity recovers and as the too good to be true start to earnings season continues. Treasury yields are surging as Wall Street is quickly realizing banking turmoil risks are easing as emergency banks loans continue to decline.  Small and large loan growth i
by Edward Moya
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