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GBP/USD - Pound rebounds as wage growth remains high, CPI expected to dip

UK unemployment claims rise UK wage growth higher than expected UK Inflation is expected to fall below 10% In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2419, up 0.34% UK employment report a mix The UK employment report for March was a mixed bag. The number of unemployed persons jumped by 28,200, after a decline of 18,000 in February and higher than the estimate of -11,800.

18-04-2023 09:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Podcast - China records faster growth, UK wages a headache for BoE

OANDA Senior Market Analyst joins Jonny Hart to discuss the latest GDP, retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment data from China, UK jobs data and the day ahead.

18-04-2023 08:18 GMT by Craig Erlam

Australian dollar gets boost from strong Chinese GDP

China's GDP expands by 4.5% AUD/USD responds with gains RBA minutes indicate pause was a close call The Australian dollar is showing strong gains on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6738, up 0.55% on the day. Aussie rises as Chinese GDP outperforms China is Australia's largest trading partner, which means that the Australian dollar is very sensitive to Chinese economic data.

18-04-2023 06:15 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil treading water, gold stays close to $2000

Can oil break above five-month range after OPEC+ cut Oil is continuing to tread water around the five-month highs, an area it has failed to surpass in the aftermath of the latest OPEC+ output cut. Rather than propel the price towards $100 as some feared (it could still happen, of course), the decision appears to have just moved the price back to previous ranges that the cartel was seemingly comfortable with. The next step may depend on global growth and whether the economy can weather the recent

18-04-2023 03:46 GMT by Craig Erlam

Mixed data for China and the UK sees markets tread water in Europe

We're seeing relatively flat trade again on Tuesday amid mixed economic data from China overnight. The world's second-largest economy grew by 4.5% in the first quarter as it emerged from zero-Covid restrictions to join the rest of the world in living with the disease. The transition was never likely to be perfectly smooth but much of the data we've seen in recent months suggests it's been relatively successful. But the data on Tuesday also highlights how uneven the recovery has been.

18-04-2023 03:39 GMT by Craig Erlam

Potential tailwind for Asian equities as major downtrend on the US dollar remains intact

US Dollar Index managed to hold its February 2023 low of 100.95 but the major downtrend remains intact. Further US dollar weakness supports the potential outperformance of the rest of world equities against the US S&P 500. Hong Kong 33 has evolved into a short-term uptrend after hitting a 12-week low at end of March. In the past two weeks, geopolitical tension has increased and reverberated across different facets such as the ongoing US-China technology trade war involving the supply of semicon

18-04-2023 00:11 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Oil and Gold lower on strong dollar, Crypto down as banking turmoil eases

Energy traders await Key China data Gold down but not out Crypto down on strong dollar and easing banking turmoil Oil Crude prices are in trouble as the dollar appears poised for a major rebound as the Fed might be in position to do a lot more tightening. The economy is showing resilience and while normally that is good news for the crude demand outlook, that is disrupting calls for a peak in Fed tightening. The oil market will soon have to deal with recession fears but for now it should be a

17-04-2023 16:06 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks are wavering as Fed rate hike bets grow, Empire Strikes Back, EUR/USD tumbles below 1.10

Treasury yields higher across curve, with the 2-year rising 8.5 bps to 4.184% Empire surges and supports case for more Fed rate hikes EUR/USD tumbles below 1.10 Stocks are wavering as the risks of more tightening grow after New York factory activity recovers and as the too good to be true start to earnings season continues. Treasury yields are surging as Wall Street is quickly realizing banking turmoil risks are easing as emergency banks loans continue to decline. Small and large loan growth i

17-04-2023 15:55 GMT by Edward Moya

NZD/USD slide continues as Services PMI decelerates

New Zealand Services PMI declines in March US retail sales fall, inflation expectations jump NZD/USD falls to 3-week low New Zealand Services PSI declines New Zealand's services sector saw expansion levels ease in March. The BusinessNZ PSI (Performance of Services Index) fell to 54.4, down from 55.8 in February but well above the 50.0 line which separates contraction from expansion.

17-04-2023 10:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY - Yen falls below 134 as US dollar gains strength

USD/JPY slips to 1-month low US retail sales fall for second straight month Fed members Waller and Bostic urge more rate hikes Japanese yen extends losses The Japanese yen took it on the chin on Friday, as USD/JPY jumped 0.90%. The yen has edged lower on Monday and fell as low as 134.22, its lowest level since March 15th.

17-04-2023 06:58 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD - Australian dollar takes traders for a wild ride

US retail sales decelerate sharply in May US bank earnings were solid Markets have priced a May rate hike at 80% AUD/USD steady after swings of over 1% late last week The Australian dollar has steadied on Monday, trading just above the 0.67 level. We could see further movement from the Aussie early on Tuesday, as China releases GDP. Aussie sinks after strong US earnings, Fed speak The markets received another clear sign on Friday that the US economy is slowing, after a disappointing March ret

17-04-2023 04:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Week Ahead - All eyes on China's GDP, UK CPI, Flash PMIs, and Earnings

The first few banks are delivering a strong start to earnings season, reigniting soft landing calls, while large parts of Wall Street remain confident that the economy is recession bound as expectations remain that banking turmoil will persist. Fed rate cut bets for later in the year have steadily increased and that has kept the dollar under pressure.

14-04-2023 15:58 GMT by Edward Moya

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 554); June Rate Hike Odds Sink Risk Appetite

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss the University of Michigan inflation expectations, JPMorgan's impressive earnings, weakening retail sales, cryptos, and the week ahead.

14-04-2023 15:48 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil rallies, Gold's record run ends for now, Cryptos shine

Oil shrugs off OPEC demand warnings Gold tumbles after failing to reach record highs Ethereum momentum remains post Shapella upgrade Oil Oil’s fourth weekly advance has been mostly relentless as the OPEC+ output cut has sent global oil markets to a very deep supply deficit. The risk of a couple million-barrel deficit in the second half of the year should keep prices supported regardless of whatever noise emerges from the Fed contemplating another quarter-point or so in rate hikes. Energy trad

14-04-2023 15:16 GMT by Edward Moya

Bank Earnings Impress, Inflation Expectations and Hawkish Fed Speak rattles stocks

Fed rate hike odds emerge for June meeting +16.7% UMich keeps Fed focused on inflation fight Early bank earnings impress Wall Street got scared after strong results from JPMorgan, surging inflation expectations, and some hawkish Fed speak, supported the idea that the Fed could raise rates not just in May but also in June. There was too much news to digest this morning, but the key takeaway is that the Fed has room to do more harm.

14-04-2023 14:59 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD - Another strong week for the British pound, will US retail sales slip?

British pound has jumped close to 500 points over past five weeks UK economy grappling with high inflation, widespread strikes US retail sales expected to decline in March British pound rallies, but UK economy struggling The British pound is poised to post its fifth successive winning week. During this time, the GBP/USD has sparkled, rallying almost 500 points. This week's UK releases have not been as positive as the pound's upswing.

14-04-2023 08:07 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY steady, BOJ's Ueda pledges to maintain policy, markets eye US retail sales

At G20 meeting, BoJ Governor Ueda says he'll maintain policy US markets brace for soft US retail sales BoJ's Ueda says he'll maintain policy It has been a light data calendar in Japan this week, leaving Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's remarks at a G20 meeting in Washington as the highlight of the week. Ueda took over as head of the central bank on Sunday and will chair his first BoJ policy meeting at the end of the month. Ueda didn't veer from the script which he has been using since his

14-04-2023 06:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand dollar drifting after soft Manufacuturing PMI, markets brace for soft US retail sales

New Zealand Manufacturing PMI declines in March US retail sales expected to decline in March NZD/USD is trading quietly around the 0.6300 line New Zealand manufacturing declines New Zealand wrapped up the week on a sour note, as Manufacturing PMI for March slipped to 48.1, after a downwardly revised 51.7 in February and below the estimate of 51.0. A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion; below 50.0 indicates contraction.

14-04-2023 05:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil rally hits wall, Gold eyes record, Ethereum's successful upgrade

Oil slumps 1%, Delta optimistic on Q2 travel demand Gold less than $20 from record territory Ethereum rallies above $2,000 following Shapella Upgrade Oil It looks like the rally in crude prices has finally hit a wall. It was a busy week for energy traders with the EIA short-term energy outlook, Colombia’s global energy summit, the OPEC monthly report, and nationwide strikes impacting French oil product shipments. WTI crude couldn’t quite rally above the $83.45 level and traders decided that

13-04-2023 14:44 GMT by Edward Moya

Bad news is good news for stocks, Mixed Earnings from Delta and Fastenal

Stocks poised for best day in almost 2 months Euro hits highest levels in a year against dollar Early earnings paint mixed outlook US stocks are rallying as the economic data continues to soften and as corporate updates support the idea that the economy is gradually weakening. Bad news is once again good news for stocks. The US dollar softened after soft PPI data and rising jobless claims bolstered Fed rate cut bets. US Data Today’s inflation readings showed a little bit more softness as s

13-04-2023 14:35 GMT by Edward Moya

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