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EUR/USD - Euro gains ground as investor confidence improves
EUR/USD has climbed around 0.60% today and pushed above the 1.09 line Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence improved to -8.7 Eurozone retail sales fell by 0.8% US releases inflation on Wednesday Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence rises The Eurozone economy continues to recover, but there is plenty of work ahead. The Sentix Investor Confidence index improved to -8.7 in April, above the March read of -11.1 and better than the estimate of -11.7 points.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/CAD steady, Bank of Canada expected to pause again
Three Fed members will deliver public statements on a very light data calendar today On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada is expected to pause, and US inflation is projected to fall to 5.2% USD/CAD is almost unchanged, trading around 1.3500 The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged, trading at 1.3501 in Europe. With no Canadian events and no tier-1 releases out of the US, we can expect a quiet day for USD/CAD.
by Kenneth Fisher
Euro slips on fallout from strong US nonfarm payrolls
Financial markets in Germany and France are closed for Easter Monday Increased odds of Fed hike is weighing on the euro Eurozone releases retail sales and investor confidence on Tuesday US dollar gets a boost from solid nonfarm payrolls The US dollar is higher against all the majors today, including the euro, courtesy of the strong US employment report on Friday. The star of the show, nonfarm payrolls came in at 236,000 in March.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil drifts lower, Gold back at $2000, Bitcoin resilience
Oil lower given the risk-off tone on Wall Street Gold lower as dollar rallies as Fed rate hike bets get locked in Bitcoin rallies back towards upper boundaries of key range Oil Crude prices are drifting lower as most energy traders are still on the sidelines until we get a clearer picture on the global growth outlook.  There have been a lot of headlines but nothing is moving oil today as prices appear content hovering above the $80 given all the supply challenges.  Rising tensions between Chin
by Edward Moya
Wall Street nervous over upcoming week full of risks, BOJ Gov Ueda sinks yen
Stocks lower as markets price in 71.4% chance of a quarter-point hike at May 3rd FOMC meeting Commercial bank lending drops by $105 billion in two weeks ended March 29th Yen tumbles as BOJ Gov Ueda's inaugural address sticks current ultra-dovish policies US stocks are weakening as investors are anticipating the next inflation report will seal the deal for another quarter-point rate hike by the Fed.  This is the week that could tell us that the US consumer is no longer showing resilience and
by Edward Moya
USD/JPY - yen slides as Ueda says no plans for policy shift
BoJ Governor Ueda says current monetary policy is appropriate USD/JPY has climbed 1% today Japan's consumer confidence hits 10-month high Strong US employment report raises odds of a Fed hike in May BoJ's Ueda says current policy will continue Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke at his first news conference as head of the central bank today. It wasn't quite a State of the Union address, but Ueda's message was clear - the current monetary policy was appropriate and he had no plans to make any maj
by Kenneth Fisher
Australian dollar flat in holiday-thin trading, business and consumer confidence releases next
Australian banks closed for Easter Monday, AUD/USD unchanged Australia releases Westpac consumer sentiment and NAB business confidence on Tuesday (Australian time) A solid US nonfarm payrolls report has boosted the likelihood of a Fed rate hike at the May meeting Markets await Australian confidence indicators AUD/USD is flat on Monday, as Australia is closed for a bank holiday. There are no Australian releases and no tier-1 events in the US today, which means it should be an uneventful day for
by Kenneth Fisher
Week Ahead - Can CPI, Retail Sales, and Bank Earnings derail Fed rate hike odds?
The US labor market is softening, but still remains tight and that should keep the door open for policymakers to raise rates again at the May 3rd policy meeting. The focus now shifts to whether disinflation trends can get back on track.  The March inflation report is expected to show a slower monthly pace of 0.2%, down from 0.4%, while headline inflation reading is expected at 5.2% year on year, down from February’s 6.0%.
by Edward Moya
In-line NFP Report Bolsters Fed Rate Hike Odds, Dollar has its day, Bitcoin unfazed
European and US stocks markets are closed for Good Friday (Europe will stay closed on Monday) US Jobs Report raised odds of a Fed rate hike at the May meeting Dollar rallied, Bitcoin little changed In March, Charles Schwab acquired $53 billion in net new client assets After a week full of softening labor market readings, today’s nonfarm payroll report showed hiring is not cooling as quickly as some where thinking.  The US jobs report was in-line with expectations, but it feels like a beat becau
by Edward Moya
USD/JPY jumps after solid nonfarm payrolls release
USD/JPY has posted gains in the North American session after a solid showing from US nonfarm payrolls. Japan's real wages continued to fall, while household spending rebounded. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 132.24, up 0.36% on the day. US nonfarm payrolls within expectations In the US, nonfarm payrolls was within expectations, easing concerns that the US labour market is in trouble.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/CAD shrugs despite strong Canadian job numbers
It could be a busy day for the US dollar, with the release of nonfarm payrolls later today. Canada posted a strong employment report on Thursday, as employment change and unemployment were better than expected. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3501, up 0.07%. Nonfarm payrolls expected to ease All eyes are on US nonfarm payrolls, with a consensus estimate of 240,000 for March, following a reading of 311,000 thousand in February.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil’s OPEC+ hangover, Gold profit-taking, Bitcoin’s moment to shine
Oil's third weekly gain all thanks to OPEC+ Gold down from 13-month high as profit-taking kicks before record highs Bitcoin hovers near recent highs Energy traders have an OPEC+ hangover as oil prices remain anchored.  It seems WTI crude isn’t going to budge from the $80 a barrel level even as the headlines suggest the US economy is quickly weakening.
by Edward Moya
Wall Street ready for a long weekend, Jobless Claims confirms labor market weakness is here, Canada Jobs Impress
Wall Street looks like it is ready for both a long weekend and a nonfarm payroll report that will likely show labor market weakness is happening.  Stocks wavered most of the session as investors refrained from massive positioning before this shortened trading week wraps up. Some traders however don’t want exposure in case we get an upside surprise with the jobs report, just like Canada did today.  Stocks settled higher as job softness and Fed Bullard's comments suggest monetary policy is almost
by Edward Moya
Are cracks appearing in the US labour market? NFP eyed for further evidence
We're seeing cautious trading ahead of the jobs report, with jobless claims offering signs of cracks appearing in the labor market. That primarily came from revisions to previous figures that show a clear trend higher in claims, a trend that is likely to worsen as mass layoff announcements find their way into the data. The next few months are likely to paint a very different picture of the labor market in the US and that could even be exacerbated by recent turbulence in the banking system.
by Craig Erlam
Commodities and Bitcoin rallies stall
Oil inventories drop as Saudis raise prices Gold rally stalls ahead of $2050 Bitcoin anchored at $28,000 Oil Crude prices are wavering after weakening US economic data was countered by a larger than expected draw with stockpiles as demand across all products roared back.  Energy traders digested a round of US data that suggests the world’s largest economy is headed towards a recession, but then had a rather bullish EIA crude oil inventory report that was immediately followed by a decision from
by Edward Moya
Stocks fall as Wall Street goes Defensive
ADP mattered this week Wages advance at slowest pace in over a year Services Sector Cools Wall Street is realizing that you need a strong economy to keep stocks heading higher. Treasury yields headed lower after both the ADP private payrolls report and ISM Services Index both suggested the economy is weakening.
by Edward Moya
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