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Oil consolidates near winter highs, record high ambitions for gold bulls

Are calls for $100 oil premature? The surprise OPEC+ output cut continues to dominate price action in oil markets. The reduction was substantial but pre-emptive which has left traders questioning whether this was just a price issue or a belief that the global economy is heading for a difficult period.

06-04-2023 11:50 GMT by Craig Erlam

Are cracks appearing in the US labour market? NFP eyed for further evidence

We're seeing cautious trading ahead of the jobs report, with jobless claims offering signs of cracks appearing in the labor market. That primarily came from revisions to previous figures that show a clear trend higher in claims, a trend that is likely to worsen as mass layoff announcements find their way into the data. The next few months are likely to paint a very different picture of the labor market in the US and that could even be exacerbated by recent turbulence in the banking system.

06-04-2023 11:32 GMT by Craig Erlam

Video - Another volatile month in store for financial markets

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam highlights five things that he believes investors will be closely tracking over the next month.

05-04-2023 18:57 GMT by Craig Erlam

Video - NZD/USD rallies after weaker US jobs data and a hawkish RBNZ

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam looks ahead to the US jobs report after JOLTS job openings came in softer than expected, talks about the RBNZ decision to hike by 50 basis points, and gives his analysis on the NZDUSD chart.

05-04-2023 17:27 GMT by Craig Erlam

Commodities and Bitcoin rallies stall

Oil inventories drop as Saudis raise prices Gold rally stalls ahead of $2050 Bitcoin anchored at $28,000 Oil Crude prices are wavering after weakening US economic data was countered by a larger than expected draw with stockpiles as demand across all products roared back. Energy traders digested a round of US data that suggests the world’s largest economy is headed towards a recession, but then had a rather bullish EIA crude oil inventory report that was immediately followed by a decision from

05-04-2023 16:28 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks fall as Wall Street goes Defensive

ADP mattered this week Wages advance at slowest pace in over a year Services Sector Cools Wall Street is realizing that you need a strong economy to keep stocks heading higher. Treasury yields headed lower after both the ADP private payrolls report and ISM Services Index both suggested the economy is weakening.

05-04-2023 16:20 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CAD - Canadian dollar eyes Canada's job report

The Canadian dollar has edged lower ahead of the North American session. On the economic front, the US releases ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI later today.

05-04-2023 08:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZD/USD surges briefly after RBNZ hikes by 50 basis points

The New Zealand dollar is showing sharp movement on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand shocked the markets and raised rates by 50 basis points. In the US, JOLTS Jobs Openings was below expectations, raising concerns about the strength of the US labour market. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6296, down 0.24%. RBNZ stuns markets with oversize hike The RBNZ gets the prize for shocker of the week, after the central bank delivered a 50-bp hike.

05-04-2023 06:58 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

US jobs report eyed as weaker JOLTS data signal slack appearing in labour market

Equity markets are treading water in the middle of the week as investors weigh up what is next for the Fed following the surprise decline in JOLTS job openings, how much further the RBNZ will go in light of today's decision and what the OPEC+ cut means for oil prices and inflation. There's been a lot to take on board over the last few days and it's been a real mix of good and bad news.

05-04-2023 04:52 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil holds onto OPEC gains, gold punches past $2000

Oil holds gains after OPEC+ cut but remains around recent highs Oil prices are consolidating after the early week surge in the aftermath of the OPEC+ announcement. The decision to cut output has proven to be very controversial, much like the two million barrel reduction in October, but just like that, there's no guarantee it will lead to dramatically higher prices. In fact, at this stage crude is only trading around the highs of the last four months and it's tested these levels on a number of oc

05-04-2023 04:47 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil rally hits a wall, Gold shines, Keep your eyes on Bitcoin this Friday

Commodities have been supported by a weaker dollar Shortened Trading Week impacting flows Oil rally runs out of steam The crude rally hit a brick wall as market pessimism grows that US economy is headed towards a recession. Yesterday was all about the shock from the surprise OPEC+ production and today is about a weakening economy and growing consensus that a recession will happen later this year. This is a tough shortened trading week given Good Friday holiday for energy traders. A pivotal

04-04-2023 15:53 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks get Jolted, Labor market is starting to loosen

10-year Treasury Yield tumbles from 10 bps to 3.34% after JOLTS data Stocks 4-day winning streak snapped Dollar looking vulnerable as Fed's tightening work almost done US Stocks Stocks got jolted after labor market weakness suggested both disinflation trends will remain but also the economy is quickly weakening. Job vacancies were dropping pre-banking crisis, so it is seems logical this will become more noticeable in the coming months. The bears are feeling confident that the recent rally ca

04-04-2023 15:33 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD - Euro jumps higher after US JOLTs Job Openings underperforms

EUR/USD was drifting earlier but has jumped higher in the North American session after a weak showing from US JOLTS Job Openings. We'll get a look at German and eurozone Services PMIs on Wednesday.

04-04-2023 10:59 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Anxiety subsiding but RBA pauses rate hikes amid downside risks for the economy

Stock markets are moving cautiously higher again on Tuesday as anxiety continues to subside in the aftermath of last month's mini-banking crisis. RBA pauses amid fears over spending and lags in monetary policy The RBA paused its tightening cycle today, citing various concerns including a substantial slowdown in household spending, the lag from recent rate hikes, and the stress in US and European banks. While inflation remains far too high and further hikes may be warranted - no longer "will" - i

04-04-2023 08:24 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil powers higher, gold eyes lofty $2000 level

Oil continues higher in the aftermath of the surprise OPEC+ output cut Oil prices are higher again on Tuesday, adding to their substantial gains on Monday following the shock production cut from OPEC+. The decision to reduce output despite no prior warning - quite the opposite in fact - and without a clear view of the demand outlook in light of recent events highlights just how driven by price and speculation the group is, despite its previous insistence otherwise. There may have been other fact

04-04-2023 08:20 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar in holding pattern ahead of Reserve Bank decision

The New Zealand dollar is almost unchanged ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate decision on Wednesday (New Zealand time). The US releases JOLTS Job Openings. NZD/USD is trading quietly at the 0.63 line in the European session. RBNZ expected to hike by 25 bp The RBNZ is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, which would bring the benchmark cash rate to 5.0%.

04-04-2023 06:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD - Aussie dips as RBA keeps rates unchanged

The Australian dollar is in negative territory following the RBA decision to pause rates at 3.60%. The US releases JOLTS Job Openings, which is expected to fall to 10.40 million, following a prior reading of 10.82 million. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6744, down 0.61%. RBA takes a breather The streak is over.

04-04-2023 05:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 551)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss the OPEC+ shock cut, Tesla's record quarter of deliveries, and talk cryptos.

03-04-2023 15:19 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil surges after OPEC+ surprising output cut, gold shines

Oil surges after OPEC cuts Oil prices surged after OPEC+ surprised energy markets with a production cut announcement of more than 1 million barrels a day. This oil production cut follows the group’s 2 million bpd reduction of output made in October. OPEC was signaling that they could keep production steady but it is clear that they are not confident with the demand outlook. It is also important to appreciate the timing of the announcement. OPEC didn’t wait for Monday’s JMMC meeting, but

03-04-2023 14:11 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks waver after ISM Manufacturing hits weakest levels since 2020, Tesla’s disappointing record deliveries, Bitcoin liquidity dries up

Wall Street is trying to find its footing after a weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing report countered OPEC’s surprise production cut that triggered inflation jitters. The S&P 500 index initially opened higher, led by the energy sector, healthcare, and consumer staples as traders rushed to buy anything energy and defensive.

03-04-2023 14:08 GMT by Edward Moya

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