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Markets Weekly Outlook - US-China trade talks & global economic data

This week's market outlook focuses on US-China trade talks, analyzing their potential impact on global markets. Key topics include US Dollar trends, gold and oil price movements, and upcoming economic data releases in Asia, Europe, and the US. The report also examines the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and anticipated inflation figures amidst tariff uncertainty, providing insights into market sentiment and potential trading opportunities.

09-05-2025 15:30 GMT by Zain Vawda

Canadian dollar shrugs after mixed employment numbers

Canada's employment report was a mix. The economy added 7.4 thousand jobs but the unemployment rate jumped to 6.9% from 6.7% and was higher than expected. There are a host of Fed members speaking on Friday and Saturday and the markets willl be looking for some insights as far as future rate policy.

09-05-2025 14:00 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Bank of England lowers rates, UK-US Trade Deal, Pound Rises

The BoE lowered rates by a quarter-point to 4.25%, the second rate cut in 2025. The UK and US announced a trade deal XX. In the US, the Federal Reserve held rates and Fed Chair Powell warned that tariffs could lead to stagflation.

08-05-2025 14:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen extends losses, wage growth expected to fall

The yen continues to lose ground against the US dollar. The Federal Reserve held rates on Wednesday and Fed Chair Powell pushed back against Donald Trump's calls for lowering rates. Powell said the tariffs could lead to stagflation and the Fed would remain cautious before making any cuts. Japan released the minutes of the BoJ March meeting, with members concerned about the impact of US tariffs on Japan's economy.

08-05-2025 08:25 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Yen rally ends, markets eye Fed rate decision and BoJ minutes

The Bank of Japan releases the minutes of its March meeting on Thursday. Later today, the Fed makes its rate announcement, which is likely to be a hold on rates.

07-05-2025 10:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand unemployment rate lower than expected, Kiwi declines

New Zealand's unemployment rate remained at 5.1% in Q1, lower than the forecast of 5.3%. Wage growth eased to 0.4% from 0.6% and employment change rose 0.1%. The data supports further rate cuts from the RBNZ. In the US, the Fed is virtually certain to holds rates at today's FOMC meeting.

07-05-2025 09:25 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro edges upwards as Services PMIs inch higher

Eurozone and German Services PMIs are showing stagnation, as business activity remains weak due to the difficult economic conditions and concerns over US tariffs. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintains rates on Wednesday.

06-05-2025 15:30 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand dollar steady ahead of employment data

New Zealand releases the Q1 employment report on Wednesday. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.3% from 5.1%, which would be the highest level in over 8 years. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain interest rates on Wednesday.

06-05-2025 10:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Swiss franc climbs as Swiss inflation flat

The Swiss franc continues to climb, which could lead the SNB to intervene in order to keep Swiss exports competitive. Swiss inflation fell to zero from 0.3%. In the US, the ISM Services PMI improved slightly to 51.6 from 50.6. US nonfarm payrolls dropped slightly to 177 thousand, above the forecast of 130 thousand.

05-05-2025 15:40 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar hits five-month high after Australian election

The Australian dollar has posted strong gains following a landslide victory for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. US nonfarm payrolls were higher than expected, pointing a resilient US labor market.

05-05-2025 10:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Markets weekly outlook - Central Banks in focus as risk appetite improves

This week's market outlook focuses on improved sentiment driven by US-China trade optimism. It covers market reactions, including fund flows, gold price drops, and oil price volatility. Central bank decisions, particularly the Fed and Bank of England, are highlighted, along with key economic data from China and the US. The US Dollar Index's potential breakout above 100.00 is also examined with key levels.

02-05-2025 19:57 GMT by Zain Vawda

Euro breaks slide as eurozone core CPI climbs, US nonfarm payrolls beat forecast

Eurozone CPI was unchanged at 2.4% and core CPI surprised on the upside, rising to 2.7%. The rise in core CPI could complicate the ECB's plans to gradually lower interest rates. US nonfarm payrolls came in at 177 thousand, much stronger than the market estimate of 130 thousand.

02-05-2025 13:00 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar rises after PPI accelerates, US nonfarm payrolls next

Australian data was mixed on Friday. PPI for Q1 rose to 0.9% from 0.8%, while retail sales dropped to 0.3% in March from a revised 0.8%. The US releases nonfarm payrolls, which is expected to fall to 130 thousand from 228 thousand.

02-05-2025 09:15 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar eyes Aussie retail sales

Australian retail sales, which will be released on Friday, are expected to improve to 0.4% m/m from 0.2%. In the US, GDP and the Core CPI Price Index missed expectations ,raising worries about the health of the US economy.

01-05-2025 14:30 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Yen slides as BoJ cuts growth forecast

The BoJ held rates at 0.5% today and also cut its growth and inflation forecasts due to the uncertainty over US tariffs. US GDP surprised on the downside with a 0.3% decline.

01-05-2025 09:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

German inflation higher than expected, Euro dips

Germany's core inflation rate rose from 2.6% to 2.9%, raising concerns, complicating the ECB's plan to continue lowering interest rates. In the US, GDP declined by 0.3% and ADP employment fell to just 62 thousand, further signals that US President Trump's tariff policy could damage the US economy.

30-04-2025 15:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian core CPI falls within the RBA target, Aussie shrugs

Australia's headline CPI remained unchanged at 2.4% y/y in the first quarter. The key core CPI indicator dropped to 2.9% from 3.3%, dropping within the RBA's target band for the first time in three years. In the US, GDP for Q1 is expected to drop sharply to 0.4% from 2.4%.

30-04-2025 12:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen surges due to market jitters

The yen continues to shine and has climbed as much as 6.7% in April as investors look for safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen. US JOLTS Job Openings missed expectations and US nonfarm payrolls is expected to decline to 135 thousand, after a gain of 228 thousand in the previous release.

29-04-2025 14:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar hits new 2025 high, CPI looms

The Australian dollar is lower on Tuesday. Australia releases CPI on Wednesday, with both headline and core CPI projected to ease. In the US ,JOLTS Job Openings is expected to decline for a second straight month.

29-04-2025 10:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro lower, German consumer confidence improves

The euro has lost ground on Tuesday. German consumer confidence for April improved, following business confidence which also climbed higher. The markets are keeping a close eye on German CPI and US JOLTS Openings, both which will be released on Wednesday.

29-04-2025 10:15 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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