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CPI Misses, Everything (But the Dollar) Rallies–Market Reactions
US CPI data came in weaker than expected, with Core CPI rising just 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% forecast. This eased inflation pressure despite last week's strong NFP beat. Markets rallying as falling inflation alongside solid job growth reduces stagflation fears and strengthens the case for a soft landing.
by Elior Manier
Markets weekly outlook - US Inflation on Deck as Trade Uncertainty Lingers
This weekly outlook covers the latest market trends, including a review of US jobs data and its impact on Wall Street. It analyzes trade uncertainties, the US-China relationship, and fund flows across different regions. The report also looks ahead to key economic data releases, focusing on US and Chinese inflation figures, and examines the US Dollar Index's performance and key levels.
by Zain Vawda
US Services PMI dipping into Contraction - Equities continue to reject Highs
US Services PMI dropped to 49.9 vs 52 expected, marking a sharp contraction in key components like orders and employment. Prices surged at the fastest pace since Nov 2022. Markets reversed gains from earlier ADP data, signaling growing concerns over tariffs and weakening economic momentum. USDCAD and USDJPY Intra-day Chart analysis
by Elior Manier
Markets Rattle as ADP Report Sends Stocks and USD Lower
US Employment data is sending mixed signals as ADP Private Employment rose by just 37K vs 115K expected—its weakest print in 2 years. The slowdown highlights the strain of high interest rates on private hiring, raising concerns ahead of Friday’s key NFP release. Equity markets are seesawing ahead of the Services PMI release at 10:00.
by Elior Manier
New Zealand central bank sees less growth, FOMC says it will remain cautious, Trump tariffs upended
RBNZ Governor Christian Hawksby said on Thursday that the cash rate was in a neutral zone and that the Bank could hold rates at the July meeting. The FOMC minutes expressed concern about US fiscal and trade policies and signaled the Fed would remain in a wait-and-see mode. A US court has blocked President Trump's tariffs, but the US government has appealed the decision.
by Kenneth Fisher
Eurozone inflation expectations rise, euro edges lower
Eurozone inflation expectations rose in April to 3.1% from 2.9%. Still, the ECB is widely expected to lower interest rates next week. The US Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its May rate meeting, in which it stressed a wait-and-see policy until Trump's tariff policy becomes clearer.
by Kenneth Fisher
Japanese yen eyes inflation data
Japan's core CPI hit 3.5% in April, its highest level since Jan. 2023. BoJ Core CPI will be released and is expected to edge up to 2.3% from 2.2%. The BoJ is in a wait-and-see stance and isn't expected to higher rates before October.
by Kenneth Fisher
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