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Hang Seng Index Technical: The countertrend rebound phase may have ended
Lacklustre movement was seen in China & Hong Kong benchmark stock indices today after the release of China Premier Li Qiang’s economic work report during the second day of the “Two Sessions”. Premier Li Qiang has officially announced China’s 2024 GDP growth target of around 5% (within consensus) and stuck to the same rhetoric of targeted stimulus measures to achieve the economic growth target. Lack of fresh positive catalysts may reverse the four weeks of the rally seen in China & Hong Kong benc
by Kelvin Wong
Swiss franc edges higher as Swiss CPI falls to 1.2%
The Swiss franc is slightly higher at the start of the week. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8852, up 0.20%. Swiss inflation lower than expected Switzerland’s inflation rate dipped to 1.2% y/y in February, down from 1.3% in January but above the market estimate of 1.1%.
by Kenneth Fisher
Japanese yen steady ahead of Tokyo Core CPI
The Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.34, up 0.13%. Tokyo Core CPI expected to rise to 2.5% Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI, considered the most important inflation indicator, on Tuesday.
by Kenneth Fisher
Gold Technical: On the cusp of a potential major bullish breakout
Gold Technical: On the cusp of a potential major bullish breakout Gold (XAU/USD) recorded its highest weekly gain of 2.33% year-to-date on 1 March 2024, and its best weekly return seen in the past three months. Positive technical elements and a softer real US 10-year Treasury yield below 2.15% support a potential major bullish breakout scenario for Gold (XAU/USD). Gold (XAU/USD) potential bullish breakout trigger level stands at US$2,090.
by Kelvin Wong
EUR/USD steady after eurozone inflation dips
Eurozone inflation falls to 2.6% Eurozone unemployment rate drops to record low of 6.4% The euro is calm on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0818, up 0.13%. Eurozone inflation eases to 2.6% Inflation continues its downward trend in the eurozone.
by Kenneth Fisher
Canadian dollar shrugs as GDP beats estimates
The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3576, down 0.03%. Canada’s GDP expands by 1.0% The Canadian economy grew by 1.0% y/y in the fourth quarter of 2023, beating the market estimate of 0.8%.
by Kenneth Fisher
Japanese yen jumpy after BoJ member urges tighter policy
Japanese yen falls below 150 BoJ’s Tanaka urges changes to monetary policy US PCE price index falls to 2.4% BoJ's Tanaka hints at tighter monetary policy After close to two weeks of little movement, the Japanese yen is showing some volatility. The yen climbed as much as 1% on Thursday before paring much of those gains.
by Kenneth Fisher
EUR/USD dips as German inflation declines
Eurozone to release inflation data on Friday EUR/USD dips as Germany’s inflation rate falls German inflation falls to 2.5% The euro is in negative territory on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0800, down 0.35%. Germany’s inflation rate dropped to 2.5% y/y in February, down from 2.9% in January and lower than the market estimate of 2.6%.
by Kenneth Fisher
Australian dollar edges higher as retail sales rebound falls short
The Australian dollar has stabilized on Thursday after sustaining sharp losses a day earlier. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6512, up 0.26%. Australian retail sales rebound but miss estimate Australia's retail sales started the year on the right foot but were not as strong as expected.
by Kenneth Fisher
Australian dollar slides after CPI stays steady
The Australian dollar took a hit after Australian inflation was lower than expected. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6493, down 0.78%. CPI holds steady at 3.4% Australia’s inflation rate remained steady in January at 3.4% y/y, unchanged from December and below the market estimate of 3.6%.
by Kenneth Fisher
AUD/NZD Technical: Squeezed up towards key 1.0700 resistance ex-post RBNZ
New Zealand central bank, RBNZ maintained its OCR at 5.50% but surprised markets with lower OCR forecasts for 2024 and 2025. A less hawkish RBNZ has triggered a sell-off in the Kiwi (-1% intraday against the USD), the worst-performing currency among the majors. The current weak outlier movement of the NZD has triggered a potential short-term bearish mean reversion scenario for the AUD/NZD cross pair. Watch the 1.0700 key short-term resistance on AUD/NZD.
by Kelvin Wong
RBNZ Preview - Technical Analysis for NZD/USD
Talking Points Reserve Bank of New Zealand - Official Cash Rate Daily Chart Technical Analysis 1 - Hour Chart Technical Analysis Reserve Bank of New Zealand - OCR The RBNZ interest rate decision, monetary policy statement, and press conference are scheduled for tonight; the official cash rate in New Zealand is 5.50%, and according to Westpac as well as a few banks, RBNZ is expected to hold rates at their current level in line with the FED and other major central banks globally.
by Moheb Hanna
New Zealand dollar calm ahead of RBNZ rate decision
The New Zealand dollar is trading quietly on Tuesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6165, down 0.12%. Reserve Bank expected to hold rates at 5.50% All eyes are on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which will set the cash rate on Wednesday.
by Kenneth Fisher
GBP/USD yawns as UK shop inflation declines
UK shop inflation falls to 2.5% The British pound is drifting on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2683, down 0.03%. Shop price, food inflation heads lower UK shop inflation doesn’t usually make headlines but today’s release was further evidence that inflation is on a downward trend.
by Kenneth Fisher
Market Insights Podcast - China PMI, Japan CPI, US PCE and RBNZ on the radar
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week's key economic data and events, notably the US Federal Reserve preferred data on inflationary trends in the US, the core PCE. The consensus is expected another soft print of 2.4% y/y in January versus 2.6% y/y in December 2023, an inline core PCE with the consensus is likely to be much preferred by stock market bulls as to keep the Fed's dovish pivot "alive".
by Kelvin Wong
USD/JPY: All eyes on Japan's core-core inflation tomorrow
Japan’s core-core CPI for January 2024 is expected to come in soft at 3.2% y/y versus 3.7% y/y in December 2023. Leading economic indicators, Japan’s Consumer Confidence, and Average Cash Earnings of employees suggest a more potentially upbeat core-core inflation rate for January 2024. Watch the 150.70 key short-term resistance of USD/JPY with near-term support at 149.60. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “USD/JPY: Lingering below 151.40/95 major resistance zone” published on 15
by Kelvin Wong
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