US PPI jumps 0.6%
New Zealand Mfg. PMI expected to remain in negative territory
The New Zealand dollar has lost ground on Thursday.
14-03-2024 13:36 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
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The Japanese yen is drifting on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is almost unchanged at 147.77.
It’s a busy day in the US, with the release of retail sales, the producer price index and unemployment claims.
14-03-2024 07:06 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
In the past five days, the year-to-date laggard Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has played a positive catch-up.
On a rolling 5-day performance basis, the DJIA has outperformed with a gain of +1.10% over the Nasdaq 100’s loss of -0.70% due to recent softness seen in the share price of Nvidia.
Watch the key short-term support of 38,930.
This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “US DJIA Technical: Uptrend intact with looming outperformance over Nasdaq 100” published on 3 January 2024.
14-03-2024 05:58 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
The Australian dollar remains close to the 0.66 line, where it has been for most of the week. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6620, up 0.21%.
NAB Business Confidence edges down to zero
The business sector is not feeling very confident about the near-term outlook of the Australian economy.
13-03-2024 11:25 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The British pound is drifting on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2784, down 0.06%.
UK GDP expands 0.2% in January
It wasn’t a spectacular rebound but the UK economy showed some slight improvement, with GDP rising 0.2% m/m in January.
13-03-2024 08:34 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The recent significant increase of a total of 20 bps in the 2-year JGB yield since the start of the year has come in line with the highly anticipated rosy results of the annual wage negotiations in Japan.
In the past week, the JPY crosses have come under downside pressure as the carry trade strategy loses its appeal.
Watch the 168.75 key short-term resistance on the CHF/JPY.
The JPY crosses have continued to face downside pressure in the recent week ahead of key related risk events such as the
13-03-2024 02:14 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
The Japanese yen has looked sharp lately but is considerably lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.75, up 0.55%.
12-03-2024 14:09 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Next week, markets await the Bank of Japan’s policy rate, monetary policy statement, and press conference, market participants are speculating whether the BOJ will raise interest rates for the first time since 2007. Last week, the Yen appreciated by 1.85% against the Euro, as EURJPY dropped from a high of 163.56 to a low of 160.57 as rate speculation began.
12-03-2024 06:23 GMT
by Moheb Hanna
The British pound has extended its losses on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2799, down 0.26%.
UK job market slows down
The UK labor market has remained resilient despite elevated interest rates but is showing signs of cracks, based on today’s employment release.
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in the three months to January, up from 3.8% in the three months to December and above the market estimate of 3.8%.
12-03-2024 05:44 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Recent rapid gains seen in the Nikkei 225 are likely to be attributed to the highly anticipated positive outcome of Japan’s annual wage negotiations results.
The expected increase in wage growth for FY 2024/2025 may have already been fully priced in by the Japanese stock market.
Recent bearish elements sighted in the US S&P 500 may led to a negative feedback loop into the Nikkei 225.
Watch the key short-term resistance at 39,640 on the Nikkei 225.
This is a follow-up analysis of our prior repor
12-03-2024 05:17 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week's key economic data and events. The primary focus will be on the US CPI data for February out on Tuesday (12 March) and the preliminary wage negotiations result for FY 2024/2025 from Japan's largest union group, Rengo on Friday (15 March).
The consensus is calling for a moderation of the US inflationary trend where the core-CPI data for February is expected to slow down slightly to 3.7% y/y from 3.9% y/y in January.
11-03-2024 22:54 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
The British pound has started the trading week in negative territory. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2807, down 0.39%.
11-03-2024 13:23 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The Japanese yen continues to make inroads against the US dollar. In Monday’s European session, USD/JPY is trading at 146.54, down 0.35%.
11-03-2024 06:48 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
EUR/USD has evolved into a short-term uptrend phase as it traded back above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages in the past two days.
Yesterday’s swift upmove of +89 pips ex-post ECB increases the risk of a minor mean reversion decline for the EUR/USD.
The consensus estimate for today’s US NFP is pegged at a relatively low expectation of 200K jobs added for February below 353K added in January.
Watch the 1.0970 key short-term resistance on the EUR/USD
08-03-2024 05:12 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
The Canadian dollar has edged higher on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3470, down 0.33%.
07-03-2024 12:46 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “US stock market bulls are facing a reality check (3 ominous signs to watch)” published on 14 February 2024. Click here for a recap.
In the past two weeks, the US SPX 500 has continued its pace of acceleration and hit another fresh all-time of 5,150 on Monday, 4 March.
However, under the surface, there are signs of weakness from a sector rotation perspective.
07-03-2024 06:19 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
The Australian dollar has posted strong gains on Wednesday despite a weak GDP report today. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6562, up 0.90%.
Australian GDP posts weak gain of 0.2%
Australia’s economy ended 2023 on whimper rather than a gain, as GDP rose just 0.2% q/q the fourth quarter.
06-03-2024 11:22 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The Canadian dollar is trading quietly on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3580, down 0.08%
On the economic calendar, the Bank of Canada holds its rate meeting.
06-03-2024 06:24 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
3 key risk events that may significantly influence the movement of NZD/JPY; Japan’s FY 2024/2025 annual wage negotiations preliminary results (15 March), BoJ’s monetary policy outcome (19 March) & Fed FOMC and release of its latest dot plot (20 March).
Technical analysis has indicated a potential medium-term bearish momentum on sight for NZD/JPY.
Watch the key short-term resistance of 92.00 for NZD/JPY.
This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “NZD/JPY: JPY crosses under downside press
06-03-2024 01:25 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
The Japanese yen is drifting on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.44, down 0.05%.
Tokyo rises 2.5% as expected
Today’s release of Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes fresh food and is considered Japan’s important inflation indicator, had no effect on the Japanese yen, as February’s gain of 2.5% y/y was in line with market expectations.
05-03-2024 04:52 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher