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Australian dollar stabilizes, consumer sentiment next
The Australian dollar has started the week with slight gains, after sliding 0.86% on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6530, up 0.24%. PBoC move sends Aussie sharply lower The Australian dollar ended the week with sharp losses after China’s central bank set the daily fixing of the Chinese yuan lower than expected on Friday.
by Kenneth Fisher
Hang Seng Index: Potential currency war may kick start another bearish leg
A less dovish Fed with a surprise cut by SNB has triggered a bout of US dollar strength since last Thursday, 21 March. China's central bank, PBoC responded with a lower-than-expected daily fixing on the onshore yuan (CNY) last Friday, 22 March which led the offshore yuan (CNH) to plunge by -0.8% against the US dollar to a two-month low. Further CNH weakness may trigger a currency war which in turn can trigger a potential negative feedback loop back into risk assets. This is a follow-up analysis
by Kelvin Wong
Cdn. dollar dips as retail sales disappoint
The Canadian dollar has extended its losses on Friday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3569 in the North American session, up 0.29%. Canada’s retail sales slip in January Canada’s retail sales fell 0.3% m/m in January, revised from the earlier estimate of -0.4% and well off the 0.9% gain in December.
by Kenneth Fisher
Pound edges lower ahead of BoE meeting
The British pound is slightly lower on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2766, down 0.16%. BoE expected to hold rates The markets will shift focus from the Federal Reserve, which maintained rates on Wednesday, to the Bank of England, which is holding its rate meeting later today. The BoE is widely expected to maintain the cash rate at 5.25% at today’s meeting but investors will be looking for signals of a rate cut.
by Kenneth Fisher
Cdn. dollar falls to three-month low as CPI slows
USD/CAD is trading at 1.3580 in the North American session, up 0.10%. The Canadian dollar is under pressure and dropped to a 3-month low on Tuesday, following Canada’s CPI release. Canada’s CPI falls to 2.8% Canada’s inflation rate continues to head lower and fell to 2.8% y/y in February.
by Kenneth Fisher
Gold Technical: A potential minor corrective pull-back in play as FOMC looms
Gold (XAU/USD) has traded in a tight range of 2% in the past two weeks after it printed a fresh all-time high of US$2,195 on 8 March. The biggest risk event for today will be the latest Fed FOMC’s dot plot projection on the trajectory of its Fed funds rate; a reduction to two cuts from three cuts for 2024 cannot be ruled out. Technical analysis suggests potential short-term weakness in Gold (XAU/USD). Watch the key short-term resistance at US$2,180 on Gold (XAU/USD).
by Kelvin Wong
USD/JPY soars as BoJ scraps negative rates
The Japanese yen has taken a tumble on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.67, up 1.02%. BoJ lifts rates, end yield curve control The Bank of Japan hiked interest rates for the first time since 2007 at today’s meeting and also abolished the yield control curve to target interest rate at specific levels.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY: JPY continued to sell off after BoJ put historic end to its negative rate regime
No clear forward guidance and “shadow accommodative vibes” in BoJ’s latest monetary policy led to a continuation of the rally in USD/JPY (JPY sell-off). Cautious now for USD/JPY bulls as it is now resting at the 20/151.95 major resistance zone where both verbal and real FX intervention has occurred in the past. BoJ Governor Ueda’s press conference later is likely to be critical with near-term key support at 148.70 to watch on the USD/JPY. Bank of Japan (BoJ) has not created a “shock” to the
by Kelvin Wong
Market Insights Podcast - Central banks galore as FOMC, BOJ, RBA and BOE looms
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week's key economic data and events. Major central banks' monetary policy decisions are the focus of this week; we will have the Bank of Japan (BOJ) with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday, 19 March, the US Fed on Wednesday, 20 March, and Bank of England (BOE) on Thursday, 21 March. The major policy change is likely to come from BOJ as new fundamental data (better than expected wage hike for Japanese employee
by Kelvin Wong
BOJ Policy Rate - USDJPY Technical Analysis
BOJ Policy Rate The Bank of Japan is scheduled to announce its Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, and BOJ Press Conference. Japan has held its interest rates at record-low levels for almost 17 years.
by Moheb Hanna
Aussie calm ahead of RBA decision
The Australian dollar is showing little movement on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6655, down 0.07%. RBA expected to pause The Reserve Bank of Australia wraps up a two-day meeting on Tuesday and is widely expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.35%.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY in holding pattern ahead of key BoJ meeting
The Japanese yen is showing limited movement to start off the week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading is almost unchanged at 149.07. Will the BoJ raise rates on Tuesday? The Bank of Japan will make its rate announcement on Tuesday and there is a strong possibility that the BoJ will lift interest rates out of negative territory.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY: JPY plummeted, ignoring the possibility of a more hawkish BoJ
The recent rally of USD/JPY has ignored fundamentals (biggest Japanese wage hike in 33 years) and hawkish BoJ news flows. The current bear-steepening trajectory seen in JGB yield curves may indicate mispricing of the recent bout of JPY weakness. Watch the key short-term resistance of 149.50 on the USD/JPY as BoJ’s monetary decision outcome looms tomorrow, 19 March. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “USD/JPY: All eyes on Japan's core-core inflation tomorrow” dated 26 Februar
by Kelvin Wong
Euro stabilizes, ECB starts talking rate cuts
The euro is steady on Friday, after sustaining sharp losses a day earlier due to the US inflation report. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0893, up 0.09%. ECB members signal rate cuts coming The European Central Bank maintained the deposit rate at 4.0% for a fourth straight time at last week’s meeting.
by Kenneth Fisher
NZ dollar extends losses after Mfg. PMI contraction
The New Zealand dollar continues to lose ground and has dropped more than 1% since Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6094, down 0.59%. NZ Manufacturing PMI declines for 12th straight month New Zealand’s manufacturing industry marked an unhappy anniversary on Friday as the sector contracted for a twelfth straight month (a PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction and above 50 indicates expansion).
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY rises, all eyes on BoJ after wage deal
The Japanese yen has extended its losses against the US dollar for a fourth straight day and is down 1.1% this week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.70, up 0.28%. Japanese unions win big, BoJ considering rate hike Japan’s largest trade union announced today that workers at Japan’s largest firms would receive a 5.28% salary raise, a huge victory for workers.
by Kenneth Fisher
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