All Articles

Historic French vote could propel Le Pen to power

French election: Will the far-right win a majority? French voters will head to the polls on Sunday, July 7 for round two of the parliamentary elections. In the first round, Mary Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party (RN) made big gains and won 33% of the vote.

05-07-2024 04:59 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD Advances, DXY Eyes Trendline Break - Jobs Data Up Next

EUR/USD rises above 1.0800 due to weak US economic data and a weaker USD. Market anticipates a 71.6% chance of a rate cut in September. DXY is at a psychological support level ahead of US jobs data release. Most Read: UK Election 2024: Impact Analysis on GBP and FTSE 100 EUR/USD continued its upward momentum on US Independence Day, capitalizing on a weaker USD and low market liquidity to rise above the 1.0800 level. A series of weak US economic data this week has increased expectations for rat

05-07-2024 03:11 GMT by Zain Vawda

Euro extends gains with eye on French election

The euro has posted gains on Thursday and is trading at 1.0812 in the European session, up 0.26% on the day. It has been a good week for EUR/USD, which has gained 0.95% and hit a three-week high on Wednesday. Will Le Pen snag a majority? France heads for the polls on Sunday for the second round of parliamentary elections.

04-07-2024 11:48 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY dips after US services data stumbles

The Japanese yen has rebounded on Thursday and is trading at 161.01, down 0.43% on the day. The yen has been on a slide over the past four weeks and has declined by 3.9% during that time.

04-07-2024 08:47 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Brent Crude - Oil runs into resistance as EIA inventories fall

Brent Crude oil prices rose on Wednesday due to a larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories. The market anticipates further inventory reduction, leading to potential support for prices in Q4. Technical analysis suggests bullish continuation, with a key resistance level at 87.90 and potential for a move towards 90.00 if this level is breached.

04-07-2024 05:18 GMT by Zain Vawda

US DJIA: UST yield curve un-inversion may help the laggard to catch up

Yesterday’s lacklustre US ISM services PMI and ADP employment data for June increases the odds of a further US Treasury yield curve un-inversion. A further un-inversion above -0.08% on the US Treasury yield spread between 10-year & 2-year may trigger a bull steepening scenario. A potential bull steepening in the US Treasury yield curve may see an outperformance of the value factor, in turn, trigger a bullish breakout in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Since the start of the year, the

04-07-2024 04:26 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/CHF back at key confluence area- Fed Minutes and Swiss Inflation up next

USD/CHF is currently at a key confluence zone near 0.9000, facing obstacles for further decline. The rate differential between SNB and FED will likely have an impact on USD/CHF moving forward. Price action and technicals suggest a potential bullish reaction, with a push towards 0.9100 possible.

03-07-2024 14:08 GMT by Zain Vawda

USD/JPY edges higher, FOMC minutes next

The Japanese yen continues to lose ground. On Tuesday, the USD/JPY is trading at 161.66 in the North American session, up 0.16% on the day. On the data calendar, there are no Japanese events today.

03-07-2024 10:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

UK Election 2024: Impact Analysis on GBP and FTSE 100

The UK election has had a surprisingly muted impact on the market, likely due to the focus on monetary policy. Polling suggests a comfortable Labour victory, but any surprises could trigger volatility in the GBP and FTSE 100.

03-07-2024 07:45 GMT by Zain Vawda

AUD/USD shrugs as Australian retail sales jump

The Australian dollar is drifting on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6674 in the European session, up 0.11% on the day. Australian retail sales climb 0.6% Australian consumers have been counting their pennies and reducing discretionary spending.

03-07-2024 05:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD calm, markets keep eye on Powell speech

The British pound is showing limited movement on Tuesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2681 early in the North American session, up 0.25% on the day. There are no UK events today, while the US releases Jolts Job Openings and Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal. UK PMIs points to weak economy The Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) provide a snapshot of the health of key industries and the UK picture is not a pretty one.

02-07-2024 10:16 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

S&P 500 Summer Trends: How historical seasonality could support the S&P 500

Historically, the S&P 500 has shown positive seasonality in July, with an average gain of 2.3% over the past 20 years. Election years typically see a summer rally, followed by a dip before the election, and a post-election rally. Even with strong first-half performance, the S&P 500 has rarely seen negative returns in the second half. Will the rally continue? While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, historical trends can be valuable for investors.

02-07-2024 09:04 GMT by Zain Vawda

EUR/USD eases as inflation ticks lower

The euro is slightly lower on Tuesday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0719 in the European session, down 0.19% on the day at the time of writing.

02-07-2024 07:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD: Euro bulls should not be complacent after French election

Sovereign credit risk remains elevated in France despite yesterday’s rallies seen in the EUR/USD, CAC 40 & DAX ex-post first round of the French legislative election. Speculative net capital outflows & bearish sentiment in CAC 40 & DAX may trigger a negative feedback loop into the EUR/USD. EUR/USD at risk of breaking down below 1.0656

02-07-2024 06:31 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Australian dollar eyes retail sales

The Australian dollar has posted slight losses on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6649 in the European session, down 0.15% on the day. Australian retail sales expected to improve Australian consumers have been in frugal mood and have reduced their discretionary spending.

02-07-2024 04:57 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Market Insights Podcast - France and UK elections, US ISM Services PMI, NFP are key highlights for this week

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week's key economic data and events. We kicked off the week with the post market reactions to the outcome of the pivotal first round of the France legislative elections that saw Le Pen's far right National Rally party took the lead while French President Macron's centrist alliance dropped to third place, below a far left coalition, New Popular Front party.

02-07-2024 02:25 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Brent Crude - Oil eyes range breakout as $90 a barrel in focus

Brent Crude oil prices are rising despite a slight drop in demand from Asia in the first half of 2024. Inventories data will be important as US summer holidays get into full swing. Range breakout on the cards... is the $90 a barrel mark out of the question?

01-07-2024 13:07 GMT by Zain Vawda

USD/JPY rises up after GDP downgrade

The Japanese yen has dropped below the 161 line on Monday. The yen is trading at 161.39 early in the North American session, down 0.35% on the day. Japan’s GDP revised sharply lower Japan revised its first-quarter GDP report to -2.9%, y/y, sharply lower than the initial reading of -1.8%.

01-07-2024 09:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold Price Update: XAU/USD rises as search for catalyst rumbles on

Gold rises as a weaker US Dollar and uncertainty around monetary policy continues. ISM data later today before all attention turns to US jobs data later in the week. Trendline break and price action hint at at a potential rise toward the $2370 resistance handle. Market participants are closely watching for a new catalyst to drive gold prices in a definitive direction.

01-07-2024 08:20 GMT by Zain Vawda

Euro rises despite France’s vote for the right

The euro has started the week with strong gains. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0756 in the European session, up 0.41% on the day at the time of writing.

01-07-2024 06:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

All news & analysis