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Markets Weekly Outlook: French, UK Elections in Focus Followed by NFP Data

Despite a decline in core PCE numbers, hawkish comments from Fed policymakers cast doubt on a September rate cut. The first half of 2024 saw a widening gap between growth and value stocks, with the former outperforming the S&P 500. Concerns over central bank policy divergence and a weakening Yen add to market uncertainty. The week ahead brings key data releases, including US non-farm payroll and unemployment figures. Chart of the week: S&P 500 RSI divergence hints at further downside.

28-06-2024 15:18 GMT by Zain Vawda

Euro flat ahead of crucial French election

The euro is almost at a standstill on Friday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0705, up 0.02% on the day.

28-06-2024 10:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY: Bullish exhaustion in minor uptrend ahead of US PCE inflation

Today’s Asia session US dollar strength triggered by the first round of the US Presidential Election debate has started to dissipate ahead of US PCE inflation. The recent 11 days of rally seen in the USD/JPY has reached an overstretched condition. Short-term bullish exhaustion condition detected on the USD/JPY after a test on the 161.10 short-term pivotal resistance. The earlier pop-up of the US dollar strength against the major G-10 currencies seen during today’s early Asian session, 28 June

28-06-2024 07:59 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Canadian dollar eyes Can. GDP, US Core PCE

The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Friday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3704 in the European session. Canada’s GDP expected to rise 0.3% Canada’s economy has been in low gear, with a flat GDP reading in March.

28-06-2024 07:57 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY flat, Tokyo Core CPI higher than expected

Japanese yen pushes above 161 The Japanese yen is unchanged on Friday, but has managed to set a new low against the US dollar. The yen is trading at 160.72 in the European session and fell as low as 161.28 earlier, its lowest level since 1986. Tokyo Core CPI accelerates to 2.1% Tokyo core CPI, which excludes fresh food and is closely monitored by the Bank of Japan, climbed to 2.1% y/y in June, up from 1.9% in May and above the market estimate of 2%.

28-06-2024 06:44 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro eyes French inflation

The euro has gained ground on Thursday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0707, up 0.26% on the day.

27-06-2024 12:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold Price Update: XAU/USD surges to $2330 after yesterday's selloff – What’s next?

Acceptance below $2300/oz remains elusive as bulls return in force. PCE inflation data culd shake up the markets and provide a stable medium-term outlook for gold prices. Trendline break hints at potential upside toward $2365-2370/oz area. Must Read: US Dollar on Edge: how PCE data could shake up the markets Gold (XAU/USD) prices surged on Thursday following a sharp selloff and a brief dip below the $2300 psychological barrier.

27-06-2024 11:01 GMT by Zain Vawda

USD/JPY steady as BOJ watches with sense of urgency

Japanese yen remains below 160 USD/JPY is trading at 160.38 early in the North American session, down 0.25% on the day. The Japanese yen has been trading below 160 on Thursday, after dropping as low as 160.87 on Wednesday, its lowest level since December 1986. As the yen continues to hit new lows, there are concerns of another intervention from the Bank of Japan in order to stem the currency’s rapid depreciation.

27-06-2024 09:39 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

US Dollar on Edge: how PCE data could shake up the markets

What is the US PCE data and why is it important? Uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve and US Dollar remains high due to conflicting US data and global inflation concerns. The upcoming PCE data release is highly anticipated as it may influence the Fed's stance on rate cuts. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rangebound ahead of the PCE release. Will 107 finally be revisited? Most Read: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Stabilizes: Is this the bottom markets have been waiting for? Market participants contin

27-06-2024 09:34 GMT by Zain Vawda

Aussie calm as inflation expectations jump

The Australian dollar has posted small gains on Thursday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6654 in the European session, up 0.10% on the day. Australian inflation expectations rises to 4.4% This week’s inflation indicators have risen more than expected, an indication that inflation remains sticky and that the road to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target band of 2% to 3% will be bumpy. On Wednesday, the Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations rose to 4.4% in June, up from May’s 4.1% gain,

27-06-2024 07:47 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nikkei 225: Bullish breakout with improved market breadth

Nikkei 225 broke above a 4-week range configuration Market breadth on the TOPIX has improved steadily as more of its component stocks have traded above their respective 200-day moving averages in the past three weeks. Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for Japan has inched higher since the end of May which suggests an improvement in Japanese macro data. Watch the 39,230 key medium-term support on Nikkei 225 This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “A steeper JGB yield curve may kicksta

27-06-2024 06:12 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Stabilizes: Is this the bottom markets have been waiting for?

Bitcoin, Ethereum & Cryptocurrency Key Points: Spot Bitcoin ETF flows show a net inflow of $31 million following 7 days of outflows. BTC/USD rises around 7% from weekly low yet remains on course for a lackluster month of June. Mt. Gox may repay up to $8.5 billion worth of crypto starting next month. SEC Chair Gary Gensler hints at Ethereum (ETH) ETF approval soon. Most Read: Gold prices under pressure as the Dollar Index (DXY), US Yields Rise Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rebounded from its weekly low ye

26-06-2024 12:39 GMT by Zain Vawda

USD/JPY breaks 160, will Tokyo intervene?

Japanese yen slumps to 37-year low USD/JPY is trading at 160.68 in the North American session, up 0.62% on the day. The Japanese yen broke below the psychological barrier of 160 today and has fallen to its lowest level since December 1986. The Japanese currency had been hovering just below 160 throughout the week and has finally broken through. The yen’s downward move has raised concerns that the Bank of Japan will intervene in the currency markets yet again.

26-06-2024 11:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar slightly higher as CPI rises to 4%

The Australian dollar rose 0.40% after the Australian CPI release but has given much of those gains. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6663 in the European session, up 0.24% on the day. Australian inflation surprises on the upside Australia’s CPI accelerated to 4.0% in May, up from 3.6% in April and above the market estimate of 3.8%.

26-06-2024 08:03 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold prices under pressure as the Dollar Index (DXY), US Yields Rise

Gold continues its decline with $2300/oz firmly back in sight. US Dollar index and US 10Y yield continue to rise, US 10Y now at 4.275%. PCE inflation data could be the catalyst needed for gold prices to find some direction. Fundamental Overview Gold prices remain under pressure this morning as rising US yields and a stronger US Dollar weigh on the precious metal.

26-06-2024 06:45 GMT by Zain Vawda

AUD/JPY: Aussie outperformance with a hotter AU CPI

Australia’s monthly CPI has increased to 4% from 3.6% in April, a sign of a sticky and elevated consumer inflationary trend. The odds of an RBA interest rate in the near-term horizon have reduced which increased the yield premium of 2-year Australian government bond over JGB. AUD/JPY is likely on a path of bullish acceleration within its medium-term & major uptrend phases.

26-06-2024 05:28 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Australian dollar edges lower, CPI next

The Australian dollar is slightly lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6638 in the North American session, down 0.27% on the day. Australian consumer sentiment climbs Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment index flexed some muscle earlier on Tuesday but that didn’t help the Australian dollar.

25-06-2024 12:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Dow Retreats from One-Month Highs, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Edge Higher

Dow Jones Industrial (DJIA) benefits as market participants diversify their holdings. Nvidia leads a recovery for the chip sector following 3.02% of losses yesterday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 face a major test of a key resistance level if the recovery is to continue. Fundamental Overview U.S. indices have experienced an intriguing start to the week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500 facing selling pressure.

25-06-2024 11:13 GMT by Zain Vawda

Canadian dollar eyes inflation release

The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Tuesday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3675 in the European session, up 0.12% on the day at the time of writing.

25-06-2024 07:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY

FX intervention chatter returns, but is it enough for the ailing JPY? USD/JPY at psychological 160.00 handle. EUR/JPY prints morningstar candlestick pattern, hinting at the potential for further upside. Fundamental Overview The Japanese Yen continues to tread water against its G 7 peers as its monetary policy stance continues to be scrutinized. Many analysts, myself included, had hoped for a bold approach from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda at the June meeting of the BoJ. The Governor howe

25-06-2024 03:09 GMT by Zain Vawda

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