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Euro rises despite soft German business climate
The euro has started the week with gains. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0727 in Monday’s European session, 0.34% on the day. German Business Climate surprises with dip Germany’s Ifo Business Climate surprised on the downside, declining to 88.6 in June.
by Kenneth Fisher
Oil Price Outlook: Brent Crude Eyes Further Gains on Supply Risks
Crude Oil prices start the week on the front foot, up 0.94% at the time of writing. Geopolitics, supply risks and the summer holidays keep buyers hopeful. MA crossover and support bounce hint at fresh highs this week. Fundamental Overview  Oil benchmarks are trading higher to start the week as supply risks were helped by US dollar weakness.
by Zain Vawda
USD/JPY: Verbal intervention intensified but real intervention may have to wait
The USD/JPY has traded higher in the past 7 sessions and printed an intraday high of 159.85 last Friday, 21 June which coincided with its 34-year high of 160.23 printed on 26 April. Last week’s persistent JPY weakness prompted Japan’s Ministry of Finance Vice Minister-in-charge of the FX market to issue a “firmer” verbal intervention. The current upmove of USD/JPY is more orderly rather than excessive which may not trigger an actual FX intervention from MoF. Watch the key medium-term support of
by Kelvin Wong
GBP/USD shrugs despite sparkling retail sales
The British pound is slightly lower on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2636 early in the North American session, down 0.17% on the day. UK retail sales hit 4-month high UK retail sales jumped 2.9% m/m in May, an impressive turnaround from the revised 1.8% decline in April and blowing past the market estimate of 1.8%.
by Kenneth Fisher
Hang Seng Index: Near-term weakness prevails over trade war jitters and soft yuan
Canada’s upcoming new tariffs on Chinese EVs have sparked a potential trade war between G-7 and China. A weaker yuan to indirectly offset the negative impact of trade tariffs on China’s exports may spark a currency war. Fears of a currency war emerging may see lesser capital inflows into Asian stock markets.   This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Hang Seng Index: Improvement in market breadth and southbound flows, the bull run may not be over” dated 5 June 2024.
by Kelvin Wong
Euro extends losses after soft PMIs release
The euro has edged lower on Friday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0687 in the European session, down 0.14% on the day. Is the eurozone economy slowing down? The week ended on a sour note in Europe as June PMIs declined in the eurozone.
by Kenneth Fisher
Gold & Silver test two-week highs on geopolitical concerns and rate cut optimism
Key Points:  Geopolitics return to the fore as concerns mount around the Middle East and Asia.. Safe haven demand sees gold (xau/usd) rise toward 2350 resistance. Silver technicals hint at the potential for further upside. Commodity markets have returned to positive territory this morning, driven by gains in both silver (XAG/USD) and gold (XAU/USD).
by Zain Vawda
Nasdaq 100: Bullish acceleration in play supported by improved market breadth conditions
Short to medium-term market breadth conditions have improved which may offset the potential overconcentration risk inherent in Nvidia. The earlier lagged quality factor has now joined the positive momentum factor to support the ongoing medium-term bullish trends of the S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100. Watch the key medium-term support of 19,240 on the Nasdaq 100. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nasdaq 100: Minor melt-up sequence may have hit a roadblock” published on 13 June 2024. Cl
by Kelvin Wong
SNB cut sends Swiss franc tumbling
The Swiss franc is down sharply on Thursday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.8897 in the European session, up 0.67% on the day. Swiss National Bank trims rate to 1.25% The Swiss National Bank kept investors hanging right up to the last minute as to whether or not it would cut rates at Thursday’s meeting.
by Kenneth Fisher
CHF: Getting bid up due to safe haven status
The prior 6-month weakness of the Swiss franc against G-10 currencies has seen a short-term bullish reversal due to safe haven demand. Ongoing political uncertainty arising from the upcoming French legislative elections reinforced the ongoing CHF strength which led to three consecutive weekly losses on the EUR/CHF cross pair. A surprise dovish stance from the SNB monetary policy decision out on Thursday, 20 June may put a short-term halt to the ongoing CHF strength. EUR/CHF short-term downtrend
by Kelvin Wong
USD/CHF – Flat ahead of SNB rate decision
The Swiss franc is almost unchanged on Wednesday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.8838 in the North American session, down 0.04% on the day. Will the Swiss National Bank cut rates again? Switzerland’s central bank will announce its rate decision on Thursday and the markets are on edge.
by Kenneth Fisher
UK Inflation Back at 2% but Services Inflation Remains a Concern, GBP/USD Rises
UK Inflation Rate: UK Inflation Rate YoY reaches 2% yet services inflation poses a challenge. UK Core Inflation Rate YoY 3.5% down from a previous print of 3.9%. GBP/USD rises as 1.2750 resistance area beckons. The Bank of England (BoE) will likely have mixed feelings this morning following the release of the May inflation report. Inflation has hit the Central Bank's 2% target for the first time in nearly 3 years but the gap between goods and services inflation is a concern.  For all market-m
by Zain Vawda
Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Take a Breath as US Retail Sales Disappoints
Fresh highs printed yesterday but weak retail sales appear to weigh on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. S&P 500 on a run of 330 days since recording a loss of 2% making it the longest streak since February 2018. Nasdaq eyeing a key trendline break.  Fundamental Overview  US Indices continued their advance yesterday with the Nasdaq 100 hitting another all-time high.The Nasdaq 100 came within a whisker of the 20000 mark before losing some momentum ahead of the market open today.
by Zain Vawda
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