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Nasdaq 100: Minor melt-up sequence may have hit a roadblock
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has given up all its ex-post US CPI intraday gains triggered by losses inflicted on the 10-year US Treasury Note futures. The ongoing weakness seen on the DJIA may act as a drag on the Nasdaq 100. Watch the 19,800 pivotal resistance on the Nasdaq 100 for a potential short-term mean reversion decline scenario to unfold. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nasdaq 100: Bullish reversal remains intact supported by positive momentum in 10-year
by Kelvin Wong
Gold (XAU/USD) Vulnerable Heading Into US CPI and FOMC Releases
Gold struggles for direction ahead of key US data releases as geopolitics take a backseat.  People’s Bank of China (PBoC) pauses gold buying following 18-Month spree.  Downside momentum appears to be building as buyers lack conviction. Fundamental Overview Gold has edged higher this week yet remains under pressure heading into the US inflation data release and the FOMC decision.
by Zain Vawda
Russell 2000 Technical: A persistent underperformer among the US stock indices
Russell 2000 Technical: A persistent underperformer among the US stock indices The Russell 2000 has recorded its worst relative performance against the S&P 500 in 23 years. Momentum and technical elements have remained lackluster. The Russell 2000 may be the hardest hit if the Fed continues to signal a higher interest rate environment for a longer period. Short-term momentum has turned bearish ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI release & FOMC meeting. Watch the key short-term resistance at 2,065 on the
by Kelvin Wong
Market Insights Podcast - All eyes on FOMC, Fed new “dot plot” projections, BOJ, US and China inflation data
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week's key economic data and events. Firstly, the major key risk event this week will be on Wednesday, 12 June where we have a double dose of US CPI data release for May and US FOMC meeting outcome where the focus will be on the forward guidance of US monetary policy from Fed Chair Powell's press conference and the latest summary of economic projections ("dot plot") release on forecasted inflationary trends and the implied
by Kelvin Wong
USD/JPY calm as GDP within expectations
The Japanese yen is calm on Monday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.91, up 0.09% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s GDP declines Japan’s economy contracted in the first quarter with a weak reading of -1.8% y/y, following a revised 0.4% gain in Q4 2023.
by Kenneth Fisher
GBP/USD steady ahead of UK employment data
The British pound has started the week quietly. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2718 in the North American session at the time of writing, down 0.03% on the day. UK job growth expected to shrink The UK releases the May employment report on Tuesday.
by Kenneth Fisher
Gold Technical: On the brink of a potential multi-week corrective decline
Gold (XAU/USD) plummeted below its 20-day & 50-day moving averages, and recorded a daily loss of 3.45% last Friday, 7 June; its worst daily performance since November 2020. The main negative catalyst has been a halt in China’s gold purchases in May after 18 consecutive months of buying through its official reserves.
by Kelvin Wong
USD/JPY steady despite soft household spending
The Japanese yen is calm on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 155.50, down 0.06% on the day at the time of writing. Japan's household spending slips Japan’s economic activity has been sluggish and household spending, a key driver of economic growth, declined by 1.2% m/m in April.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY eyes household spending
The Japanese yen is steady on Thursday after showing sharp swings throughout the week. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.27, up 0.10% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s consumers have been holding tight on the purse strings as inflation remains high and economic conditions remain gloomy.
by Kenneth Fisher
British pound calm, BoE wage growth expectations fall
The British pound is slightly lower on Thursday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2771 in the European session at the time of writing, down 0.12% on the day. BoE: Businesses expect lower wage growth The Bank of England released a survey today which showed wage growth expectations for the coming year have fallen sharply.
by Kenneth Fisher
EUR/GBP Technical: Hovering at a 21-month low ahead of ECB
The FX market is likely to have fully priced in a 25-bps cut from the ECB today, hence it is likely going to be a non-event. The catalysts that may trigger a significant intraday movement in the FX market are new forward guidance (if any) from ECB President Lagarde and the latest Eurozone inflation trend forecasts. Watch the 0.8540 key short-term resistance on the EUR/GBP.
by Kelvin Wong
Euro steady as ECB poised to deliver rate cut
The euro is showing limited movement ahead of the ECB rate decision later today. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0879 in the European session, up 0.10% on the day. ECB likely to cut, but then what? Barring a huge surprise, the European Central Bank will cut its deposit rate later today.
by Kenneth Fisher
ECB's Interest Rate Decision and its Impact on EUR/USD Exchange Rate
Talking Points ECB Main Refinance Rate and EU Inflation EUR/USD Technical Analysis - Daily Chart [caption id="attachment_810773" align="aligncenter" width="624"] Inflation Monitor Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.[/caption] ECB Main Refinance Rate and EU Inflation The European Central Bank is scheduled to announce its main refinancing rate on its June 6th, 2024 meeting, traders around the world are looking forward to the central bank’s decision.
by Moheb Hanna
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