The Australian dollar is drifting on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6637 in the North American session, down 0.15% on the day.
08-07-2024 12:24 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
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The euro has started the week with gains and is trading at 1.0836 in the European session, up 0.33% on the day. EUR/USD is coming off its best week of the year, gaining 1.19%.
France veers to the left in Round 2
France has been on a political roller over the past two weeks and the wild ride isn’t over yet.
08-07-2024 08:13 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Geopolitical events and weather disruptions are currently the main drivers of oil price fluctuations.
OPEC+ production cuts have contributed to tighter oil markets, supporting prices. Can it continue?
Technical analysis suggests key support and resistance levels to watch for future price movements.
MOST READ: The Week Ahead – Will US Inflation Data Derail Market Optimism?
Oil prices have retreated sharply since printing a fresh high on Friday.
08-07-2024 08:07 GMT
by Zain Vawda
Lacklustre US non-farm payrolls & ISM Services PMI for June has led to a further drop in US Treasury yields.
Both the 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries/JGBs yield premiums have shrunk to a 5-month low.
A lower positive carry using JPY as a funded currency and elevated net short positioning in JPY futures may put a temporary halt to JPY’s persistent weakness.
Watch the 162.40 intermediate resistance on the USD/JPY.
This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “USD/JPY: Verbal intervention i
08-07-2024 07:47 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
GBP/USD is facing a key multi-month resistance level at 1.2850 after a positive run.
The outcome of US inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's testimony could significantly impact the GBP/USD exchange rate.
A break above 1.2850 might require a catalyst, like a substantial drop in US inflation, while support levels are identified at 1.2750 and below.
Most Read: The Week Ahead – Will US Inflation Data Derail Market Optimism?
GBP/USD opened slightly lower last night due to the unexpected results fro
08-07-2024 05:18 GMT
by Zain Vawda
Soft US economic data, including lower-than-expected job growth, has increased market expectations for a September rate cut.
The week ahead features important data releases, including US inflation figures and Chinese inflation data.
US Inflation holds the key to a September rate cut.
05-07-2024 14:23 GMT
by Zain Vawda
The Canadian dollar is showing little movement on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3618, up 0.05% on the day.
Canada and the US released employment data today and surprisingly, the Canadian dollar has showed almost no reaction.
Canada’s labor market contracted in June, with a decrease of 1.4 thousand.
05-07-2024 09:41 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The UK national election on Thursday propelled the Labour Party to a sweeping victory and Labour leader Keir Starmer will become the next Prime Minister. In the six-week election campaign of the election, Labour had a massive lead in the polls and there was no doubt it would win a huge majority in parliament.
05-07-2024 06:31 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
French election: Will the far-right win a majority?
French voters will head to the polls on Sunday, July 7 for round two of the parliamentary elections. In the first round, Mary Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party (RN) made big gains and won 33% of the vote.
05-07-2024 04:59 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
EUR/USD rises above 1.0800 due to weak US economic data and a weaker USD.
Market anticipates a 71.6% chance of a rate cut in September.
DXY is at a psychological support level ahead of US jobs data release.
Most Read: UK Election 2024: Impact Analysis on GBP and FTSE 100
EUR/USD continued its upward momentum on US Independence Day, capitalizing on a weaker USD and low market liquidity to rise above the 1.0800 level.
A series of weak US economic data this week has increased expectations for rat
05-07-2024 03:11 GMT
by Zain Vawda
The euro has posted gains on Thursday and is trading at 1.0812 in the European session, up 0.26% on the day. It has been a good week for EUR/USD, which has gained 0.95% and hit a three-week high on Wednesday.
Will Le Pen snag a majority?
France heads for the polls on Sunday for the second round of parliamentary elections.
04-07-2024 11:48 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The Japanese yen has rebounded on Thursday and is trading at 161.01, down 0.43% on the day. The yen has been on a slide over the past four weeks and has declined by 3.9% during that time.
04-07-2024 08:47 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Brent Crude oil prices rose on Wednesday due to a larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories.
The market anticipates further inventory reduction, leading to potential support for prices in Q4.
Technical analysis suggests bullish continuation, with a key resistance level at 87.90 and potential for a move towards 90.00 if this level is breached.
04-07-2024 05:18 GMT
by Zain Vawda
Yesterday’s lacklustre US ISM services PMI and ADP employment data for June increases the odds of a further US Treasury yield curve un-inversion.
A further un-inversion above -0.08% on the US Treasury yield spread between 10-year & 2-year may trigger a bull steepening scenario.
A potential bull steepening in the US Treasury yield curve may see an outperformance of the value factor, in turn, trigger a bullish breakout in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).
Since the start of the year, the
04-07-2024 04:26 GMT
by Kelvin Wong
USD/CHF is currently at a key confluence zone near 0.9000, facing obstacles for further decline.
The rate differential between SNB and FED will likely have an impact on USD/CHF moving forward.
Price action and technicals suggest a potential bullish reaction, with a push towards 0.9100 possible.
03-07-2024 14:08 GMT
by Zain Vawda
The Japanese yen continues to lose ground. On Tuesday, the USD/JPY is trading at 161.66 in the North American session, up 0.16% on the day.
On the data calendar, there are no Japanese events today.
03-07-2024 10:21 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The UK election has had a surprisingly muted impact on the market, likely due to the focus on monetary policy.
Polling suggests a comfortable Labour victory, but any surprises could trigger volatility in the GBP and FTSE 100.
03-07-2024 07:45 GMT
by Zain Vawda
The Australian dollar is drifting on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6674 in the European session, up 0.11% on the day.
Australian retail sales climb 0.6%
Australian consumers have been counting their pennies and reducing discretionary spending.
03-07-2024 05:55 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The British pound is showing limited movement on Tuesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2681 early in the North American session, up 0.25% on the day.
There are no UK events today, while the US releases Jolts Job Openings and Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal.
UK PMIs points to weak economy
The Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) provide a snapshot of the health of key industries and the UK picture is not a pretty one.
02-07-2024 10:16 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Historically, the S&P 500 has shown positive seasonality in July, with an average gain of 2.3% over the past 20 years.
Election years typically see a summer rally, followed by a dip before the election, and a post-election rally.
Even with strong first-half performance, the S&P 500 has rarely seen negative returns in the second half. Will the rally continue?
While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, historical trends can be valuable for investors.
02-07-2024 09:04 GMT
by Zain Vawda