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It's going to be a bumpy ride
It's been another eventful week and one that serves to remind us that while there may be more sources of optimism this year, compared with last, it's going to be a very bumpy ride. There's no doubt that there's been plenty more cause for optimism so far this year, especially compared with what we became accustomed to in 2022. The US could achieve the soft landing that many have doubted is possible, China could bounce back strongly from the dropping of Covid restrictions and the euro area may avo
20-01-2023 08:39 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Oil remains choppy, gold near record high
Speed bumps ahead Oil prices have been choppy this week after climbing back towards their late December/early January peaks. It would appear the rally is running short of momentum amid a week of less promising data from the US and a downturn in market sentiment, more broadly.
20-01-2023 08:29 GMT by Craig Erlam
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EUR/USD drifting continues
The euro continues to have a very quiet week, as EUR/USD appears content to trade around the 1.08 line. Lagarde brings her message to Davos It's difficult to think of ECB President Lagarde as a hawk, as she ignored rising inflation in the eurozone for a long period, insisting that it was transitory. The ECB was late to the global tightening party and found itself scrambling to curb inflation.
20-01-2023 07:30 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/CAD eyes retail sales
The Canadian dollar is unchanged on Friday, trading at 1.3466 in the European session. We could see some volatility in the North American session, as Canada releases retail sales. Retail sales expected to decline The markets are bracing for a downturn in retail sales for November, with a forecast of -0.5% m/m for the headline figure and -0.4% for the core rate.
20-01-2023 05:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Yen edges higher ahead of Tokyo CPI
The Japanese yen has edged higher on Thursday, after showing strong volatility a day earlier. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 128.48, down 0.32%. There was plenty of anticipation ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting on Wednesday, with speculation that the central bank would follow up on the December meeting and change its policy settings.
19-01-2023 10:56 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Central bank warnings
It's been a solid start to the year for equity markets but that optimism appears to be fading as policymakers queued up in Davos to push back against market interest rate expectations. Let's be clear on this; the markets have a much better record over the last 18 months of anticipating shifts in interest rates than central banks so to some degree these warnings will fall on deaf ears. But then, they come at a time when stocks have had a good run so perhaps it's a case of any excuse to lock in so
19-01-2023 08:38 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Will retail sales weigh on British pound?
The British pound is almost unchanged on Thursday, trading at 1.2342 in the European session. Markets brace for another decline in retail sales All eyes will be on the UK's December retail sales, which will be released on Friday. The UK consumer has been holding tight to the purse strings, which is bad news for an economy that has tipped into recession.
19-01-2023 08:16 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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AUD/USD slides after soft Aussie job report
The Australian dollar has extended its slide on Thursday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6884 in Europe, down 0.82%. Australian employment data disappoints Australia's December employment report was weaker than expected, sending the Australian dollar sharply lower.
19-01-2023 05:05 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Recession bound, Yellen restarts talks with China, BOJ, oil higher, gold holds $1900, bitcoin weakens
US stocks declined after traders digested softer economic readings that are starting to raise growth concerns. ​ The ‘bad news is good news’ rally ran out of steam as investors started to realize a recession is coming. US data A swathe of economic data confirmed that disinflation trends clearly remain in place. ​ Recession-bound risks are rising after a larger-than-expected PPI decline, a major downshift in spending, and plunging industrial production. This round of falling PPI pressures comp
18-01-2023 14:30 GMT by Edward Moya
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Australian dollar hits 5-month high on soft US data
The Australian dollar punched across the symbolic 70 line earlier on Wednesday, for the first time since August. The Aussie has given up all of these gains and is unchanged at 0.6986 in the North American session. US retail sales fall December didn't bring much cheer to retailers, as the traditional holiday season was a massive disappointment.
18-01-2023 11:52 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Pound jumps as inflation eases
The British pound is in full flight upwards on Wednesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2393, up 0.86%. UK inflation slows UK inflation eased for a second straight month in December.
18-01-2023 09:09 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Stubborn
Equity markets are marginally higher in Europe, with the Nikkei outperforming in Asia on the back of a much weaker yen. BoJ stands firm The Bank of Japan has decided to stand its ground against market forces that have forced it to purchase huge amounts of JGBs in order to defend its yield curve control upper band. Despite mounting speculation that it could be prepared to further tweak the tool or abandon it altogether, the central bank has stubbornly dug in its heals and seemingly prepared itsel
18-01-2023 05:59 GMT by Craig Erlam
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​Oil edges upwards, gold pushes higher
Continuing higher Oil prices are a little higher again on Wednesday trading around the peak we saw earlier this month. The optimism that's driving equity markets higher is filtering through to commodity markets as well, with the prospect of stronger growth in the world's two largest economies boosting demand expectations. A move back towards $90 in Brent would take us to levels not seen since early November and suggest traders are feeling much better about the global economic outlook.
18-01-2023 05:57 GMT by Craig Erlam
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US Close: A busy Tuesday (China’s GDP, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Empire, ECB),  Commodities mixed, Cryptos soften
US stocks are wavered as traders digest mixed bank earnings, a disheartening Empire manufacturing report, and as Treasuries rally at the front-end of the curve. The Dow’s decline is mostly thanks to Goldman Sachs massive earnings miss.  China’s GDP The good outweighs the bad with the outlook for China’s economic future.  China’s latest swathe of economic data points provide significant optimism that their reopening momentum could impress throughout the year.
17-01-2023 14:02 GMT by Edward Moya
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Canadian dollar shrugs as CPI declines
It has been a quiet day in the currency markets, and the Canadian dollar has followed suit. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3386, down 0.15%. Canada's inflation heads lower Inflation in Canada slowed to 6.3% y/y in December, down from 6.8% a month earlier and matching the consensus.
17-01-2023 10:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Pushing back
Equity markets are a little softer on Tuesday as investors await more earnings from the US and closely monitor events in Davos. Stocks have had a strong start to the year on the belief that interest rates may not go as high as feared and even move into reverse later in the year. While that is looking plausible in the US, it may not be the case in Europe where policymakers are seemingly still some way from considering the tightening cycle complete. The ECB, for example, was very late to the party
17-01-2023 07:50 GMT by Craig Erlam
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