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Recession bound, Yellen restarts talks with China, BOJ, oil higher, gold holds $1900, bitcoin weakens

US stocks declined after traders digested softer economic readings that are starting to raise growth concerns. The ‘bad news is good news’ rally ran out of steam as investors started to realize a recession is coming. US data A swathe of economic data confirmed that disinflation trends clearly remain in place. Recession-bound risks are rising after a larger-than-expected PPI decline, a major downshift in spending, and plunging industrial production. This round of falling PPI pressures comp

18-01-2023 14:30 GMT by Edward Moya

Australian dollar hits 5-month high on soft US data

The Australian dollar punched across the symbolic 70 line earlier on Wednesday, for the first time since August. The Aussie has given up all of these gains and is unchanged at 0.6986 in the North American session. US retail sales fall December didn't bring much cheer to retailers, as the traditional holiday season was a massive disappointment.

18-01-2023 11:52 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Pound jumps as inflation eases

The British pound is in full flight upwards on Wednesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2393, up 0.86%. UK inflation slows UK inflation eased for a second straight month in December.

18-01-2023 09:09 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Stubborn

Equity markets are marginally higher in Europe, with the Nikkei outperforming in Asia on the back of a much weaker yen. BoJ stands firm The Bank of Japan has decided to stand its ground against market forces that have forced it to purchase huge amounts of JGBs in order to defend its yield curve control upper band. Despite mounting speculation that it could be prepared to further tweak the tool or abandon it altogether, the central bank has stubbornly dug in its heals and seemingly prepared itsel

18-01-2023 05:59 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil edges upwards, gold pushes higher

Continuing higher Oil prices are a little higher again on Wednesday trading around the peak we saw earlier this month. The optimism that's driving equity markets higher is filtering through to commodity markets as well, with the prospect of stronger growth in the world's two largest economies boosting demand expectations. A move back towards $90 in Brent would take us to levels not seen since early November and suggest traders are feeling much better about the global economic outlook.

18-01-2023 05:57 GMT by Craig Erlam

Japanese yen sinks as BoJ holds steady

The Japanese yen has fallen sharply on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 129.38, up 0.96%.

18-01-2023 05:29 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

US Close: A busy Tuesday (China’s GDP, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Empire, ECB), Commodities mixed, Cryptos soften

US stocks are wavered as traders digest mixed bank earnings, a disheartening Empire manufacturing report, and as Treasuries rally at the front-end of the curve. The Dow’s decline is mostly thanks to Goldman Sachs massive earnings miss. China’s GDP The good outweighs the bad with the outlook for China’s economic future. China’s latest swathe of economic data points provide significant optimism that their reopening momentum could impress throughout the year.

17-01-2023 14:02 GMT by Edward Moya

Canadian dollar shrugs as CPI declines

It has been a quiet day in the currency markets, and the Canadian dollar has followed suit. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3386, down 0.15%. Canada's inflation heads lower Inflation in Canada slowed to 6.3% y/y in December, down from 6.8% a month earlier and matching the consensus.

17-01-2023 10:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Pushing back

Equity markets are a little softer on Tuesday as investors await more earnings from the US and closely monitor events in Davos. Stocks have had a strong start to the year on the belief that interest rates may not go as high as feared and even move into reverse later in the year. While that is looking plausible in the US, it may not be the case in Europe where policymakers are seemingly still some way from considering the tightening cycle complete. The ECB, for example, was very late to the party

17-01-2023 07:50 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil boosted by China data, gold pares gains

Buoyed by China data Oil prices are a little higher today after paring gains at the start of the week to remain near the highs of the last month, or so. Brent crude has mostly traded between $76 and $86 since early December but the mood appears to have become a little bit more bullish thanks to some promising economic data. The prospect of a soft landing in the US and a shallower economic hit in China from the Covid transition, not to mention a strong rebound, has driven the latest rebound in cr

17-01-2023 07:47 GMT by Craig Erlam

EUR/USD drifting, eurozone inflation next

The euro continues to drift this week and is trading close to the 1.0820 line. This follows last week's sharp gains of 1.8%. German inflation falls - will eurozone follow suit? German Final CPI came in at -0.8% m/m in December, matching the forecast and unchanged from November.

17-01-2023 07:36 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY - Calm before the storm?

The Japanese yen is in calm waters on Tuesday, as the Bank of Japan's two-day meeting starts today. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 128.76, up 0.18%. Markets eye BOJ meeting The markets are keeping a close eye on the BOJ meeting.

17-01-2023 05:13 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 420)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss the speculation around the Bank of Japan's yield curve control, Davos, and cryptos.

17-01-2023 02:36 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/JPY ends nasty slide

USD/JPY is in positive territory on Monday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 128.50, up 0.52%. The yen had an excellent week, climbing over 3% and trading at levels not seen since May 2022. Will BoJ deliver more policy moves at meeting? The Bank of Japan holds a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday in what could be one of the highlights of the week.

16-01-2023 09:11 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Eyeing Davos and earnings

A relatively muted start to the week amid lighter expected trade due to the US bank holiday, with Europe and much of Asia posting small gains. It's been quite a frantic start to the year so investors may be capitalizing on the opportunity to catch their breath. They won't have long given the flurry of central bank speak as policymakers gather in Davos this week and as earnings season heats up in the US. There's certainly an increasing sense of optimism about 2023 as we make our way through the o

16-01-2023 09:10 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil boosted by optimism, gold has momentum

Oil buoyed by economic optimism Oil prices are marginally lower today but have recovered the bulk of their earlier losses. They've been on a good run since getting the year off to a bad start in the opening couple of sessions.

16-01-2023 09:07 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro hits 9-month high

The euro is almost unchanged on Monday, trading at 1.0831. The euro is coming off a strong week, as EUR/USD rose 1.8%.

16-01-2023 06:49 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 419)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed inflation drivers, bank earnings, oil markets, Bitcoin's breakout, and the week ahead.

13-01-2023 15:00 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - Earnings season underway

It will be a busy week filled with a wide range of economic indicators, lots of Fed speak, and earnings season heats up. Wall Street will now not just fixate on inflation data, but also on how quickly the economy softens. Traders will pay close attention to the Empire manufacturing index, retail sales, PPI, industrial production, NAHB housing market index, weekly jobless claims, and existing home sales data.

13-01-2023 11:51 GMT by Craig Erlam

Mid-Market Update: A busy earnings start, Sentiment Rebounds, Tesla woes remain, Oil’s good week, Gold shines, Crypto breakout?

US stocks were initially softer after the banks delivered a disappointing start to earnings season along with a downbeat outlook for the economy. Stocks are heading lower as Wall Street anticipates earnings will decline significantly and margins will be tested. This is the quarter that companies will announce layoffs and cost-cutting measures as the economy still appears to be recession-bound. Stocks pared losses after consumer sentiment rose to a 9-month high. Plunging gas prices were a k

13-01-2023 11:14 GMT by Edward Moya

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