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UK inflation falls but remains above 10% The British pound is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2069, down 0.88%. UK inflation continues to fall, although it clearly has a long way to go.

15-02-2023 06:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

A small setback

Equity markets are poised to open a little softer on Wednesday following similar moves in Asia overnight as investors weigh up the latest setback in US data. The inflation report really needed to over-deliver after the red-hot labour market figures earlier in the month and it simply didn't do it. The trend remains positive but it may be stalling and that won't give the Fed any encouragement to stop raising interest rates. The next 25 basis point hike was never really in doubt anyway but now mark

15-02-2023 04:24 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil range-trading, gold slips lower

Large inventory build weighs Oil prices are a little lower again today but remain broadly within the same range they've traded in over the last couple of months. China has been a very bullish development for crude oil but the global economy as a whole is much more uncertain.

15-02-2023 04:21 GMT by Craig Erlam

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 431)

Craig Erlam and Jonny Hart take a look at how markets have responded to the US inflation data and what it means for interest rates. They also discuss the labour market figures from the UK ahead of tomorrow's inflation release.

14-02-2023 14:53 GMT by Craig Erlam

Mid-Market Update: Disinflation Danger, Wild market swings post Inflation report, Oil lower as SPR to get tapped again, Gold softer, Modest rise for Bitcoin

US stocks went on an inflation rollercoaster after a mostly in-line report saw extreme volatility. The knee-jerk reaction to the January CPI figures was dollar strength as yields surged following the slight deceleration with pricing pressures from a year ago. Big declines with used cars and airfares were countered with strong increases with apparel and medical care. The Fed won’t be changing their message, which means Wall Street is still confident that we could see just two more quarter-point

14-02-2023 12:04 GMT by Edward Moya

Japanese yen swings on US inflation

The Japanese yen has shown some strong movement on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 132.85, up 0.32%. US inflation slows, but less than expected US inflation in January ticked lower to 6.4%, down from 6.5% but higher than the forecast of 6.2%.

14-02-2023 09:51 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil loses ground, gold eyes inflation

Paring gains Oil prices are falling again on Tuesday after initially recouping losses at the start of the week. While traders remain very optimistic about China and to a lesser extent, the resilience of the global economy this year, the fact remains that it won't be a smooth process, and that has already been evident in the economic data in the opening weeks of 2023. It will be interesting to see how oil prices respond to today's US inflation data as interest rates are now at a point where every

14-02-2023 07:38 GMT by Craig Erlam

The moment we've been waiting for

Stock markets got the week off to a strong start and that optimism is carrying through to the inflation report release, it would appear. European indices are trading around half a percentage point higher early in the day and US futures indicate a slightly positive open as well. Of course, all of that will probably change between now and the opening bell, with the inflation data being released an hour before. As was the case yesterday, I'm quite surprised at the level of optimism we're seeing in

14-02-2023 07:35 GMT by Craig Erlam

AUD/USD unchanged ahead of US CPI

The Australian dollar is unchanged on Tuesday, after starting the week with strong gains. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6966. Australia's Business Confidence jumps Australia's NAB Business Confidence rebounded in January, rising from 0 to 6 and above the forecast of 1 point.

14-02-2023 07:16 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Pound steady after jobs report

UK wage growth eases The British pound is slightly higher on Tuesday, as the markets digest today's UK employment report. Wage growth rose by 5.9% in the October-December period, down from 6.5% and the lowest since the three months to July 2022.

14-02-2023 04:02 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Surprisingly Optimistic

It's been a promising start to the week in financial markets, albeit one built on surprising optimism ahead of tomorrow's US inflation report. I would expect to see a little more apprehension, even anxiety, in the run-up to the release after the jobs report left investors on edge. In an ideal world, slack would be gradually appearing in the labour market as inflation steadily fell to 2%, allowing the Fed to take its foot off the break.

13-02-2023 12:35 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil edges lower, gold eyes inflation report

Profit-taking ahead of CPI data Oil prices are a little lower at the beginning of the week. Last week saw them bounce back strongly on optimism around China's economic recovery, post Covid transition.

13-02-2023 12:26 GMT by Craig Erlam

NZ dollar surges, eyes inflation expectations

The New Zealand dollar has started the week in positive territory. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6357, up 0.76%. Will NZ inflation expectations keep rising? It has been a long break for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which last met in November.

13-02-2023 12:19 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

US Open: Stocks edge higher, Standard hawkish speak from Fed’s Bowman, Oil drops on demand risks, Gold vulnerable, Crypto lower

US stocks are rising as traders digest more balloon incidents and ahead of a key inflation that might tilt the Fed rate hiking scale. The initial move to start the week is higher, but traders might struggle to remain excessively bullish before tomorrow’s inflation data. Pricing pressures are expected to rise last month and we should not be surprised if the Valentine's day inflation report is very hot as used car prices and energy costs clearly rebounded last month. Risky assets could struggle

13-02-2023 10:22 GMT by Edward Moya

Yen slides as Ueda set to lead BoJ

The Japanese yen has started the week with sharp losses. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 132.54, up 0.86%. Japan's GDP expected to rebound There are high hopes for the Japanese economy, which is expected to climb by 2% in the fourth quarter, following a 0.8% decline in Q3.

13-02-2023 06:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 430)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the University of Michigan Sentiment Report/inflation expectations, Japan PM Kishida's expected pick to head the BOJ, crypto weakness, and the week ahead.

10-02-2023 15:09 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks lower as rates rise, JPY pops on BOJ Gov nominee, Russia to cut oil output, Gold lower, Bitcoin breaks below $22k

US stocks are weakened as mounting inflation risks continue to drive Fed rate hike bets. The Nasdaq is getting hit the hardest as yields are moving higher again.

10-02-2023 12:32 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - A valentine's day treat

The Valentine’s Day inflation report is the main event of this week. Disinflation trends will get tested here and we could potentially have a major turning point with Wall Street’s expectations on how high the Fed will have to take interest rates. The January inflation report is expected to show headline CPI from a month ago rose 0.5%, up from the -0.1% reading in the prior month. Inflation from a year ago is expected to improve from 6.5% to 6.2%.

10-02-2023 11:28 GMT by Craig Erlam

British pound dips after soft GDP

The British pound is almost unchanged on Friday and is trading at 1.2116 in the North American session. UK avoids recession UK GDP declined 0.5% in December, following a 0.1% gain in November and worse than the forecast of -0.3%. GDP managed a 0% growth rate in Q4 after a -0.2% reading in Q3.

10-02-2023 09:08 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Resilience

Equity markets are ending the week on a flat or slightly downbeat note which has largely reflected the mood all week, really. Central bankers, particularly from the Fed, have been out in force stressing caution over interest rate expectations. And it's clearly had an impact following that red-hot jobs report last Thursday.

10-02-2023 07:31 GMT by Craig Erlam

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