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Equity markets are heading for a positive start to the session, paring Wednesday's gains as investors digest the latest Fed minutes. The usual caveat applies to the minutes, being that a lot of time has passed, and to a great extent, the contents of them are either outdated or known. Still, as we saw on Wednesday, that doesn't always matter and markets can still respond accordingly. The starkest takeaway was arguably that some policymakers could have gotten behind another 50 basis point increase

23-02-2023 04:35 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil consolidating, gold drops after FOMC

Glacial consolidation Oil markets are continuing to consolidate, albeit at a glacial pace, and today we're seeing prices creep higher just as they near the lows from earlier this month. While traders remain optimistic about China, they have become less so about the global economy as more and more rate hikes have been priced in. If one of those narratives changes, or we see a significant shift in another driving force in the oil markets - Russia, OPEC+, etc - then we could see prices break out of

23-02-2023 04:31 GMT by Craig Erlam

Yen calm ahead of Fed minutes

The Japanese yen has edged lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 134.75 down 0.20%. Fed's Bullard calls for more aggressive policy Fed member Bullard has called for the Fed to deliver rate hikes more quickly in order to beat inflation.

22-02-2023 12:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

US Open: Bullard’s projections suggest Fed’s work is almost done, China-Russia ties, RBNZ hikes, Oil remains heavy, Gold edges higher, Bitcoin softens ahead of Fed Minutes

US stock turned positive after Fed’s Bullard stated that markets might be over-pricing US recession risk. Bullard said his projections for rates are to reach 5.375%, which implies 75 bps more in rate increases. Bullard is one of the more hawkish members, so if he thinks we only have a little ways to go here, the peak in rates might be properly priced in. The disagreement between the Fed and markets on how high rates to go might be over and that could provide a tentative boost for stocks.

22-02-2023 10:26 GMT by Edward Moya

Aussie dips after soft wage data

The Australian dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. In North American trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6824, down 0.47%. Wage growth misses forecast Australian wage growth was short of the forecast, with a gain of 0.8% q/q in Q4 2022.

22-02-2023 09:38 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand dollar pares gains after RBNZ

The New Zealand dollar jumped after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting but has pared most of these gains. In the European session, NZD/USD is almost unchanged at 0.6216. RBNZ hikes by 50 basis points The RBNZ delivered a 50 bp rate increase today, bringing the cash rate to 4.75%, its highest level since 2009.

22-02-2023 05:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 435)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the Walmart and Home Depot earnings, President Putin's State of the Nation address, and cryptos.

21-02-2023 13:45 GMT by Edward Moya

Canadian dollar dips on lower inflation

The Canadian dollar has weakened on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3517, up 0.48%. Inflation drops, retail sales mixed Canada's inflation rate dropped in January.

21-02-2023 12:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar dips after RBA minutes

The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. In European trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6876, down 0.50%. RBA minutes indicate concern over inflation The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps getting in the way of the Australian dollar.

21-02-2023 07:52 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

US Open: A busy Tuesday, Putin vows to continue War, Weak outlooks from retailers, Walmart, Home Depot, Oil struggles, Gold lower ahead of Fed, Bitcoin resilience

US stocks are declining after retail earnings suggest margin worries are here and it will only get worse as the Fed is likely to deliver more tightening into early summer. Treasury yields are surging here as a tight labor market will force the Fed to do more tightening. Retailer earnings are suggesting it is going to be a tough year ahead and that should keep the pressure on stocks. Geopolitics Russia’s Vladimir Putin’s State of the Union speech suspended participation in a key nuclear arms p

21-02-2023 07:48 GMT by Edward Moya

NZD/USD eyes central bank meeting

The New Zealand dollar is slightly lower on Tuesday. NZD/USD declined over 0.50% earlier but has pared most of these losses and is trading at 0.6240, down 0.20%. RBNZ expected to hike by 50 bp The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet on Wednesday, its first policy meeting this year.

21-02-2023 05:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil in choppy waters, gold edges lower

Choppy trading continues Oil remains choppy this week with Brent and WTI slipping around 1% in early trade on Tuesday, wiping out similar gains at the start of the week. There is undoubtedly more optimism around the Chinese economy which will stimulate more demand this year but at the same time, sentiment is cooling on the global economy as interest rates are projected to go a little higher than previously anticipated. This was always likely to be a quarter of big swings in sentiment as it was t

21-02-2023 03:40 GMT by Craig Erlam

Plenty to look forward to

It hasn't been the most thrilling start to the week but the good news is that it should improve from here as the US rejoins and the economic calendar fills out. We were basically treading water on Monday which is often the case on a US bank holiday. The fact that the calendar was as thin as it was elsewhere naturally doesn't help and it may be no bad thing either.

21-02-2023 03:36 GMT by Craig Erlam

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 434)

Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart to discuss how financial markets are trading at the start of the week, why China outperformed following the LPR decision, and the week ahead.

20-02-2023 15:21 GMT by Craig Erlam

Japanese yen steady at 134

USD/JPY has started the week quietly as it continues to trade at the 134 line. It was a rough week for the yen, which declined by 2% and dropped as low as 135.11, its lowest level this year.

20-02-2023 10:02 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil remains choppy, gold under pressure

Choppy trade continues Oil prices are bouncing back a little after slipping throughout the last week from their recent highs. The optimism around China today may be responsible for the gains we're seeing in crude which would make a lot of sense given it's the world's largest importer and expected to recover strongly from the Covid transition. But as we've seen over the last few months, there's more to this story than just China and the decline over the last week was likely a reflection of more p

20-02-2023 08:25 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro drifting, markets eye PMIs

The euro showed some volatility at the start of last week but since then it has been in calm waters and has stayed close to the 1.0.7 line.We'll get a look at eurozone and German PMIs on Tuesday. ECB signals another 50 bp hike The ECB has been criticized for sending mixed messages to the markets, but Christine Lagarde was crystal clear last week when she told EU lawmakers that “in view of the underlying inflation pressures we intend to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at our nex

20-02-2023 05:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD - A head and shoulders breakout?

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the latest moves in AUD/USD and questions whether we're seeing a head and shoulders breakout.

19-02-2023 16:50 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD - Shifting Expectations

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses how cable has responded to the change in US and UK interest rate expectations over the last couple of weeks, and what he believes the key levels to watch are.

19-02-2023 16:41 GMT by Craig Erlam

US Close: Stocks punished on rate fears, Fed speak, Dollar higher, Gold finds support, Crypto lower

Wall Street appears to be closing out the week on a down note as investors become rattled over the prospect of more tightening by the Fed. It isn’t just Fed expectations that are rising, traders are also expecting the ECB to send rates much higher.

17-02-2023 16:17 GMT by Edward Moya

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