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Mid-Market: Prepare for March Mayhem, ISM data sends 10-year tentatively to 4%, Stocks tumble as Fed signal higher rates, China's robust PMIs, Hot German inflation, AUD GDP, Oil volatile post US data and EIA report, Gold pares gains as yields surge

US stocks are falling after the ISM manufacturing report posted a modest rise that still remains in contraction territory, but prices paid came in hotter, which signals rising costs are coming. The argument for more rate hikes is elevated as material costs appear poised to rise and as the Fed has yet to see a true demand slowdown.

01-03-2023 14:31 GMT by Edward Moya

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 438)

Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart to talk about what's moving markets today. They cover the PMIs from China and Europe and what they mean for the months ahead.

01-03-2023 12:35 GMT by Craig Erlam

Canadian dollar steady, GDP stagnates

The Canadian dollar showed some strong gains earlier today but has pared most of these gains. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3627, down 0.14%.

01-03-2023 09:35 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD jumps on inflation, China PMIs

The Australian dollar is showing strong gains for the first time in a week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6764 in Europe, up 0.53%. Australia's inflation eases Australia's inflation fell to 7.4% in January, down from 8.4% in December and below the estimate of 8.0%.

01-03-2023 05:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Successfully transitioning

Equity markets in Asia are enjoying some decent gains overnight, with China and Hong Kong the obvious outperformers, while Europe is also enjoying a positive start on Wednesday. Choppy trading conditions are still evident this week although the latest Chinese PMIs have provided some cause for more optimism. It was already believed that the transition from zero-Covid to living with it was going smoothly but this survey data suggests businesses are now extremely optimistic about the future. That b

01-03-2023 04:07 GMT by Craig Erlam

China PMIs boost oil, gold creeps higher

PMIs a big positive for oil It's not just equities that have been lifted by Chinese PMIs, oil is also rallying today on the prospect of a stronger Chinese recovery and resilient global demand. While this was just one survey, the breakdown of the surveys was undoubtedly encouraging and that's lifting Brent and WTI in early trade. All we need to see now are signs of cooling price pressures and perhaps less heat in the labour market in order for crude to potentially break higher.

01-03-2023 03:59 GMT by Craig Erlam

All cylinders are clicking for China's Economy, Manufacturing PMIs roar to highest levels in 11 years, Services remain solid. Yuan rallies, Aussie slips on soft GDP print

Global stock market turmoil might not be here to stay. Both China stocks and the yuan rallied after China PMIs show the economy is making a strong comeback.

28-02-2023 20:54 GMT by Edward Moya

Canadian dollar drifting as GDP looms

Canadian GDP expected to slow in Q4 It's a very light data calendar for Canadian releases this week, with today's GDP report the sole tier-1 event. Canada's economy is expected to slow to 1.5% y/y in the fourth quarter, following a solid 2.9% gain in Q3. A slowdown in economic activity is what the Bank of Canada is looking for, as inflation remains public enemy number one. CPI is moving in the right direction as it fell to 5.9% in January, down from 6.3% in December.

28-02-2023 07:32 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD eyes CPI, GDP

The Australian dollar remains under pressure and has edged lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD dropped below the 0.67 line on Monday for the first time since Jan.

28-02-2023 05:27 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Awaiting more data

It hasn't been the most thrilling start to the week but that didn't stop investors from piling back into stocks on Monday in the hope that January data proves to be an anomaly. That enthusiasm didn't flow through to Asia overnight where indices are a mix of tiny losses and gains, and Europe looks poised to open in a similar fashion. In reality, the bumper start yesterday was simply a process of unwinding the losses from late last week which further suggests investors are in no mood to be discour

28-02-2023 04:13 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil in choppy waters, gold under pressure

Choppy trade ahead? Oil prices remain very choppy with gains today largely offsetting losses at the start of the week. We may have to wait for more hard-hitting economic data next week before we see the upper or lower ranges tested as the uncertainty appears to be preventing a serious move in either direction. Should the January data prove to be a blip, it could put pressure on the upper end of the range as longer-term economic prospects improve, while another month of hot data could necessitate

28-02-2023 03:54 GMT by Craig Erlam

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 437)

Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart to discuss the start to trading this week, the bond market sell-off and the week ahead.

27-02-2023 12:40 GMT by Craig Erlam

Yen stabilizes on dovish Ueda

The Japanese yen has started the week quietly after sustaining sharp losses on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 136.26, down 0.17%. Ueda supports BOJ stimulus Bank of Japan Governor nominee Kazuo Ueda appeared before a second parliamentary committee on Monday and again indicated his support for the central bank's monetary policy.

27-02-2023 12:09 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Bouncing back

Equity markets ended last week on a negative note but they're bouncing back once more in trade on Monday. Interest rate fears are front and centre, following a terrible month of data from the US in January, as far as the Fed is concerned at least. That was further compounded on Friday by the PCE, income, and spending data which didn't come as a major surprise given what preceded it but it didn't offer any relief either. Thankfully, January is likely to be an anomaly month driven by unseasonably

27-02-2023 11:20 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD jumps on N. Ireland hopes

The British pound has posted sharp gains on Monday, after falling below the symbolic 1.20 level on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2026, up 0.72%. In the UK, the economic calendar is unusually quiet this week, with no tier-1 releases.

27-02-2023 09:49 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand dollar falls to 3-mth low

The New Zealand dollar has extended its losses on Monday, after a dismal end to the week. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6151, down 0.20%.

27-02-2023 06:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 436)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the market reaction after the Fed's preferred inflation index accelerated, incoming BOJ Governor Ueda's testimony, cryptos, Coinbase earnings and the week ahead.

24-02-2023 15:17 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - Inflation issues sinking in

Disinflation trends are struggling and now Wall Street will look to see if improving manufacturing and service activity will further fuel pricing pressures. On Monday, durable goods data for January is expected to show higher borrowing costs are hurting manufacturers.

24-02-2023 12:20 GMT by Craig Erlam

WTI Crude - Consolidates amid growth uncertainty

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the consolidation in crude oil and what is driving it.

24-02-2023 12:10 GMT by Craig Erlam

US Open: The Fed’s Inflation Problem, Rate hikes now priced in for next 3 meetings, Hawkish Fed speak, Oil and Gold crushed as dollar soars on rising rate hike bets, Crypto weakens

US stocks are selling off after the Fed’s preferred inflation reading comes in scorching hot, prompting bets that they will hike rates over the next three meetings. Some traders are also worried that they may need to take rates well above 6.00%. This morning is not just about PCE inflation, but also the consumer.

24-02-2023 10:38 GMT by Edward Moya

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