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US Open: The Fed’s Inflation Problem, Rate hikes now priced in for next 3 meetings, Hawkish Fed speak, Oil and Gold crushed as dollar soars on rising rate hike bets, Crypto weakens

US stocks are selling off after the Fed’s preferred inflation reading comes in scorching hot, prompting bets that they will hike rates over the next three meetings. Some traders are also worried that they may need to take rates well above 6.00%. This morning is not just about PCE inflation, but also the consumer.

24-02-2023 10:38 GMT by Edward Moya

Reality kicking in

It's been a strange week in financial markets, one in which we've learned relatively little but reality appears to be slowly catching up on some. I say that as someone that doesn't think things will be as bad as they currently seem on interest rates and the economy but equally is of the belief that markets should at least reflect the risk of it being so. We are seeing that in some corners of the market but equity markets - and cryptos for that matter - have been reluctant to be discouraged. They

24-02-2023 08:48 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro steady after mixed German data

The euro is down slightly on Friday. EUR/USD has been slowly moving lower and is down 1.1% this week. German GDP misses estimate The German economy, the biggest in the eurozone, underperformed in the fourth quarter of 2022.

24-02-2023 07:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Yen edges lower after BoJ's Ueda testimony

The Japanese yen is slightly weaker on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading just above the 135 line. Ueda pledges to continue easy policy Incoming Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda appeared at a parliamentary hearing on Friday and the markets were all ears.

24-02-2023 05:05 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Yen unfazed after incoming Governor Ueda reiterates that the BOJ's current policy is appropriate.

Central bank watchers knew it would be a surprise if BOJ governor nominee Kazuo Ueda gave any substantial hints about how he will consider policy normalization. Ueda reiterated that the BOJ’s current policy is appropriate. He noted that "Japan's trend inflation is likely to rise gradually.

23-02-2023 23:03 GMT by Edward Moya

Mid-Market Update: Strong start fizzled out on Fed worries, Nvidia impresses, Claims suggest labor market is not ready to loosen, Crude rallies post EIA report, Gold weakens, Bitcoin wavers

US stocks initially rallied as traders become confident the Fed’s rate hiking campaign will be over after two or three more rate hikes. Stocks were also getting a boost after Nvidia delivered a robust outlook.

23-02-2023 13:37 GMT by Edward Moya

Japanese yen steady ahead of CPI report

Thursday is a bank holiday in Japan and not surprisingly, the yen is almost unchanged as it trades close to the 135 line. Japan's CPI expected to rise Japan's inflation levels are much lower than in the US, but the Bank of Japan is concerned as inflation continues to rise. We'll get a look at National Core CPI, a key inflation indicator on Friday.

23-02-2023 12:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD rises on strong capital spending

The Australian dollar has rebounded on Thursday, after a 2-day slide in which AUD/USD lost 100 points. In European trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6830, up 0.37%.

23-02-2023 07:59 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZ dollar steady after RBNZ, FOMC minutes

The New Zealand dollar remains in calm waters, with little reaction to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate hike or the FOMC minutes. The RBNZ raised rates by a half-point on Wednesday, as the central bank remains aggressive in its battle to curb inflation. The move was in line with expectations and the New Zealand dollar moved higher but quickly pared those gains.

23-02-2023 06:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

A pinch of salt

Equity markets are heading for a positive start to the session, paring Wednesday's gains as investors digest the latest Fed minutes. The usual caveat applies to the minutes, being that a lot of time has passed, and to a great extent, the contents of them are either outdated or known. Still, as we saw on Wednesday, that doesn't always matter and markets can still respond accordingly. The starkest takeaway was arguably that some policymakers could have gotten behind another 50 basis point increase

23-02-2023 04:35 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil consolidating, gold drops after FOMC

Glacial consolidation Oil markets are continuing to consolidate, albeit at a glacial pace, and today we're seeing prices creep higher just as they near the lows from earlier this month. While traders remain optimistic about China, they have become less so about the global economy as more and more rate hikes have been priced in. If one of those narratives changes, or we see a significant shift in another driving force in the oil markets - Russia, OPEC+, etc - then we could see prices break out of

23-02-2023 04:31 GMT by Craig Erlam

Yen calm ahead of Fed minutes

The Japanese yen has edged lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 134.75 down 0.20%. Fed's Bullard calls for more aggressive policy Fed member Bullard has called for the Fed to deliver rate hikes more quickly in order to beat inflation.

22-02-2023 12:50 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

US Open: Bullard’s projections suggest Fed’s work is almost done, China-Russia ties, RBNZ hikes, Oil remains heavy, Gold edges higher, Bitcoin softens ahead of Fed Minutes

US stock turned positive after Fed’s Bullard stated that markets might be over-pricing US recession risk. Bullard said his projections for rates are to reach 5.375%, which implies 75 bps more in rate increases. Bullard is one of the more hawkish members, so if he thinks we only have a little ways to go here, the peak in rates might be properly priced in. The disagreement between the Fed and markets on how high rates to go might be over and that could provide a tentative boost for stocks.

22-02-2023 10:26 GMT by Edward Moya

Aussie dips after soft wage data

The Australian dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. In North American trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6824, down 0.47%. Wage growth misses forecast Australian wage growth was short of the forecast, with a gain of 0.8% q/q in Q4 2022.

22-02-2023 09:38 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

New Zealand dollar pares gains after RBNZ

The New Zealand dollar jumped after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting but has pared most of these gains. In the European session, NZD/USD is almost unchanged at 0.6216. RBNZ hikes by 50 basis points The RBNZ delivered a 50 bp rate increase today, bringing the cash rate to 4.75%, its highest level since 2009.

22-02-2023 05:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 435)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the Walmart and Home Depot earnings, President Putin's State of the Nation address, and cryptos.

21-02-2023 13:45 GMT by Edward Moya

Canadian dollar dips on lower inflation

The Canadian dollar has weakened on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3517, up 0.48%. Inflation drops, retail sales mixed Canada's inflation rate dropped in January.

21-02-2023 12:21 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar dips after RBA minutes

The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. In European trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6876, down 0.50%. RBA minutes indicate concern over inflation The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps getting in the way of the Australian dollar.

21-02-2023 07:52 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

US Open: A busy Tuesday, Putin vows to continue War, Weak outlooks from retailers, Walmart, Home Depot, Oil struggles, Gold lower ahead of Fed, Bitcoin resilience

US stocks are declining after retail earnings suggest margin worries are here and it will only get worse as the Fed is likely to deliver more tightening into early summer. Treasury yields are surging here as a tight labor market will force the Fed to do more tightening. Retailer earnings are suggesting it is going to be a tough year ahead and that should keep the pressure on stocks. Geopolitics Russia’s Vladimir Putin’s State of the Union speech suspended participation in a key nuclear arms p

21-02-2023 07:48 GMT by Edward Moya

NZD/USD eyes central bank meeting

The New Zealand dollar is slightly lower on Tuesday. NZD/USD declined over 0.50% earlier but has pared most of these losses and is trading at 0.6240, down 0.20%. RBNZ expected to hike by 50 bp The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet on Wednesday, its first policy meeting this year.

21-02-2023 05:20 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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