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AUD/USD jumps on inflation, China PMIs
The Australian dollar is showing strong gains for the first time in a week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6764 in Europe, up 0.53%. Australia's inflation eases Australia's inflation fell to 7.4% in January, down from 8.4% in December and below the estimate of 8.0%.
by Kenneth Fisher
Successfully transitioning
Equity markets in Asia are enjoying some decent gains overnight, with China and Hong Kong the obvious outperformers, while Europe is also enjoying a positive start on Wednesday. Choppy trading conditions are still evident this week although the latest Chinese PMIs have provided some cause for more optimism. It was already believed that the transition from zero-Covid to living with it was going smoothly but this survey data suggests businesses are now extremely optimistic about the future. That b
by Craig Erlam
China PMIs boost oil, gold creeps higher
PMIs a big positive for oil It's not just equities that have been lifted by Chinese PMIs, oil is also rallying today on the prospect of a stronger Chinese recovery and resilient global demand. While this was just one survey, the breakdown of the surveys was undoubtedly encouraging and that's lifting Brent and WTI in early trade. All we need to see now are signs of cooling price pressures and perhaps less heat in the labour market in order for crude to potentially break higher.
by Craig Erlam
Canadian dollar drifting as GDP looms
Canadian GDP expected to slow in Q4 It's a very light data calendar for Canadian releases this week, with today's GDP report the sole tier-1 event. Canada's economy is expected to slow to 1.5% y/y in the fourth quarter, following a solid 2.9% gain in Q3. A slowdown in economic activity is what the Bank of Canada is looking for, as inflation remains public enemy number one.  CPI is moving in the right direction as it fell to 5.9% in January, down from 6.3% in December.
by Kenneth Fisher
AUD/USD eyes CPI, GDP
The Australian dollar remains under pressure and has edged lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD dropped below the 0.67 line on Monday for the first time since Jan.
by Kenneth Fisher
Awaiting more data
It hasn't been the most thrilling start to the week but that didn't stop investors from piling back into stocks on Monday in the hope that January data proves to be an anomaly. That enthusiasm didn't flow through to Asia overnight where indices are a mix of tiny losses and gains, and Europe looks poised to open in a similar fashion. In reality, the bumper start yesterday was simply a process of unwinding the losses from late last week which further suggests investors are in no mood to be discour
by Craig Erlam
Oil in choppy waters, gold under pressure
Choppy trade ahead? Oil prices remain very choppy with gains today largely offsetting losses at the start of the week. We may have to wait for more hard-hitting economic data next week before we see the upper or lower ranges tested as the uncertainty appears to be preventing a serious move in either direction. Should the January data prove to be a blip, it could put pressure on the upper end of the range as longer-term economic prospects improve, while another month of hot data could necessitate
by Craig Erlam
Yen stabilizes on dovish Ueda
The Japanese yen has started the week quietly after sustaining sharp losses on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 136.26, down 0.17%. Ueda supports BOJ stimulus Bank of Japan Governor nominee Kazuo Ueda appeared before a second parliamentary committee on Monday and again indicated his support for the central bank's monetary policy.
by Kenneth Fisher
Bouncing back
Equity markets ended last week on a negative note but they're bouncing back once more in trade on Monday. Interest rate fears are front and centre, following a terrible month of data from the US in January, as far as the Fed is concerned at least. That was further compounded on Friday by the PCE, income, and spending data which didn't come as a major surprise given what preceded it but it didn't offer any relief either. Thankfully, January is likely to be an anomaly month driven by unseasonably
by Craig Erlam
GBP/USD jumps on N. Ireland hopes
The British pound has posted sharp gains on Monday, after falling below the symbolic 1.20 level on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2026, up 0.72%. In the UK, the economic calendar is unusually quiet this week, with no tier-1 releases.
by Kenneth Fisher
Market Insights Podcast (Episode 436)
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the market reaction after the Fed's preferred inflation index accelerated, incoming BOJ Governor Ueda's testimony, cryptos, Coinbase earnings and the week ahead.
by Edward Moya
Week Ahead - Inflation issues sinking in
Disinflation trends are struggling and now Wall Street will look to see if improving manufacturing and service activity will further fuel pricing pressures. On Monday, durable goods data for January is expected to show higher borrowing costs are hurting manufacturers.
by Craig Erlam
US Open: The Fed’s Inflation Problem, Rate hikes now priced in for next 3 meetings, Hawkish Fed speak, Oil and Gold crushed as dollar soars on rising rate hike bets, Crypto weakens
US stocks are selling off after the Fed’s preferred inflation reading comes in scorching hot, prompting bets that they will hike rates over the next three meetings. Some traders are also worried that they may need to take rates well above 6.00%. This morning is not just about PCE inflation, but also the consumer.
by Edward Moya
Reality kicking in
It's been a strange week in financial markets, one in which we've learned relatively little but reality appears to be slowly catching up on some. I say that as someone that doesn't think things will be as bad as they currently seem on interest rates and the economy but equally is of the belief that markets should at least reflect the risk of it being so. We are seeing that in some corners of the market but equity markets - and cryptos for that matter - have been reluctant to be discouraged. They
by Craig Erlam
Euro steady after mixed German data
The euro is down slightly on Friday. EUR/USD has been slowly moving lower and is down 1.1% this week. German GDP misses estimate The German economy, the biggest in the eurozone, underperformed in the fourth quarter of 2022.
by Kenneth Fisher
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