OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam highlights five things that he believes investors will be closely tracking over the next month.
03-03-2023 19:09 GMT
by Craig Erlam
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The US has a very busy week ahead. The two main events are Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress and the nonfarm payroll report. Powell’s two days at Capitol Hill will undoubtedly draw scrutiny from lawmakers as more tightening will raise the risk this economy is recession bound. Traders will look to see how hawkish Powell will remain given the mostly strong data, recently.
03-03-2023 17:38 GMT
by Craig Erlam
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the market reaction after the US ISM Service Index and the latest round of Fed speak, oil volatility after the UAE refutes speculation about considering leaving OPEC, cryptos, and the week ahead.
03-03-2023 15:00 GMT
by Edward Moya
US stocks rallied after another impressive ISM services index suggests that part of the economy remains healthy and as Treasuries rally after the Fed’s monetary policy report said “high inflation is not becoming entrenched.” Wall Street has had a lot of Fed speak to digest over the past week, but it seems clear that traders believe we are very close to the peak despite all these signs of a resilient economy.
03-03-2023 14:07 GMT
by Edward Moya
Stock markets are poised to end the week on a positive note although broadly speaking, it doesn't seem we've progressed in either direction over recent weeks.
Trading has become very choppy as the economic data has turned more problematic and interest rate expectations have flipped. Investors are now waiting for evidence that the January figures were the blip many expect they were, driven by unseasonably warm weather, and next Friday's jobs report will be the first such tier-one release.
Until t
03-03-2023 08:48 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Back in the middle of the range
A decent week for oil prices comes to an end slightly in the red, perhaps a sign of some profit-taking kicking in. Prices have fluctuated in a range for months now and the current price sits more-or-less in the middle of that range.
03-03-2023 08:44 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The euro has steadied on Friday after sustaining sharp losses on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0615, up 0.18%.
Lagarde says more hikes could be coming
The markets were treated to somewhat hawkish comments ECB President Lagarde on Thursday, who kept the door open to further rate hikes beyond the expected 50-bp move at the March 16th meeting.
03-03-2023 08:32 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The Japanese yen has gained ground on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 136.17, down 0.44%.
Tokyo Core CPI eases
There was some positive news on the inflation front, as Tokyo Core CPI for February slowed for the first time since January 2022.
03-03-2023 07:26 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The British pound is down sharply on Thursday, as the US dollar has recorded strong gains against the major currencies. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1930, down 0.80%.
In the UK, the economic calendar is unusually quiet this week, with no tier-1 releases. This put BoE speak in the spotlight, with the highlight being a speech from BoE Governor Bailey on Wednesday.
02-03-2023 12:58 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
US stocks are under pressure after another round of economic data suggest central bank tightening by both the Fed and ECB might have to be more aggressive. The bond market selloff returned after EU core price inflation hit fresh record highs and US jobless claims edged lower and as labor costs surged. The 10-year Treasury yield is surging, up 6.7bps to 4.058%, while the 30-year rose above 4.00% for the first time since November. The 2-year Treasury yield is 4.4 bps higher to 4.923% and seems
02-03-2023 09:55 GMT
by Edward Moya
It has been a quiet week for the Japanese yen, but USD/JPY is showing some strength on Thursday and has pushed above the 137 line for the first time this year.
Will Tokyo Core CPI continue to rise?
Japan's inflation indicators have continued to point upwards. We'll get a look at Tokyo Core CPI for February later today.
02-03-2023 09:18 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The euro remains busy and is down 0.40% on Thursday, trading at 1.0624. This follows the euro gaining 0.90% a day earlier.
Eurozone inflation falls to 8.6%
The euro's moves today and yesterday have in large part been dictated by inflation releases.
02-03-2023 06:28 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
US stocks are falling after the ISM manufacturing report posted a modest rise that still remains in contraction territory, but prices paid came in hotter, which signals rising costs are coming. The argument for more rate hikes is elevated as material costs appear poised to rise and as the Fed has yet to see a true demand slowdown.
01-03-2023 14:31 GMT
by Edward Moya
Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart to talk about what's moving markets today. They cover the PMIs from China and Europe and what they mean for the months ahead.
01-03-2023 12:35 GMT
by Craig Erlam
The Canadian dollar showed some strong gains earlier today but has pared most of these gains. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3627, down 0.14%.
01-03-2023 09:35 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
The Australian dollar is showing strong gains for the first time in a week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6764 in Europe, up 0.53%.
Australia's inflation eases
Australia's inflation fell to 7.4% in January, down from 8.4% in December and below the estimate of 8.0%.
01-03-2023 05:33 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher
Equity markets in Asia are enjoying some decent gains overnight, with China and Hong Kong the obvious outperformers, while Europe is also enjoying a positive start on Wednesday.
Choppy trading conditions are still evident this week although the latest Chinese PMIs have provided some cause for more optimism. It was already believed that the transition from zero-Covid to living with it was going smoothly but this survey data suggests businesses are now extremely optimistic about the future.
That b
01-03-2023 04:07 GMT
by Craig Erlam
PMIs a big positive for oil
It's not just equities that have been lifted by Chinese PMIs, oil is also rallying today on the prospect of a stronger Chinese recovery and resilient global demand. While this was just one survey, the breakdown of the surveys was undoubtedly encouraging and that's lifting Brent and WTI in early trade.
All we need to see now are signs of cooling price pressures and perhaps less heat in the labour market in order for crude to potentially break higher.
01-03-2023 03:59 GMT
by Craig Erlam
Global stock market turmoil might not be here to stay. Both China stocks and the yuan rallied after China PMIs show the economy is making a strong comeback.
28-02-2023 20:54 GMT
by Edward Moya
Canadian GDP expected to slow in Q4
It's a very light data calendar for Canadian releases this week, with today's GDP report the sole tier-1 event. Canada's economy is expected to slow to 1.5% y/y in the fourth quarter, following a solid 2.9% gain in Q3.
A slowdown in economic activity is what the Bank of Canada is looking for, as inflation remains public enemy number one. CPI is moving in the right direction as it fell to 5.9% in January, down from 6.3% in December.
28-02-2023 07:32 GMT
by Kenneth Fisher