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The Valentine’s Day inflation report is the main event of this week. Disinflation trends will get tested here and we could potentially have a major turning point with Wall Street’s expectations on how high the Fed will have to take interest rates. The January inflation report is expected to show headline CPI from a month ago rose 0.5%, up from the -0.1% reading in the prior month. Inflation from a year ago is expected to improve from 6.5% to 6.2%.

10-02-2023 11:28 GMT by Craig Erlam

British pound dips after soft GDP

The British pound is almost unchanged on Friday and is trading at 1.2116 in the North American session. UK avoids recession UK GDP declined 0.5% in December, following a 0.1% gain in November and worse than the forecast of -0.3%. GDP managed a 0% growth rate in Q4 after a -0.2% reading in Q3.

10-02-2023 09:08 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Resilience

Equity markets are ending the week on a flat or slightly downbeat note which has largely reflected the mood all week, really. Central bankers, particularly from the Fed, have been out in force stressing caution over interest rate expectations. And it's clearly had an impact following that red-hot jobs report last Thursday.

10-02-2023 07:31 GMT by Craig Erlam

China boosts oil, gold edges higher

Stronger China buoys oil Oil is heading for a strong week of gains, wiping out last week's losses, as analysts continue to be encouraged by China's transition to living with Covid. While the buzzword for large parts of the global economy this year is "resilience", when it comes to China it's more a question of just how strongly it will bounce back. The assumption, once they began removing restrictions, was that the first quarter or two would be tough but the second half of the year would see gro

10-02-2023 07:21 GMT by Craig Erlam

Yen jumps on report of BoJ appointment

It has been a busy day for the Japanese yen, which jumped as much as 1.1% today before paring most of those gains. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 131.04, down 0.37%. Report says BoJ has chosen next governor The Japanese yen posted sharp gains after a Nikkei report that Kazua Ueda would be selected as the Bank of Japan's next governor.

10-02-2023 06:30 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBPUSD - Recovers as BoE defends policy response

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses how the pound has performed against the dollar recently and what impact the UK Autumn Statement had.

09-02-2023 17:34 GMT by Craig Erlam

Gold - Rocked by interest rate uncertainty

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses whether gold has fallen into a correction following the US jobs report.

09-02-2023 17:31 GMT by Craig Erlam

Mid-Market Update: Stocks fade cooling German inflation report as bets on more Fed rate hikes grow, Fed's Barkin, Disney's restructuring plan, Oil lower on growth concerns, Gold softer, Crypto declines, Kraken in focus

This market doesn’t make any sense right now. Inflation most likely won’t get conquered if the economy doesn’t break.

09-02-2023 12:35 GMT by Edward Moya

Pound jumps as BoE hints at 50-bp hike

The British pound has posted sharp gains on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2153, up 0.68%. BoE points to further rate hikes BoE Governor Andrew Bailey was in the spotlight today as he testified about last week's Monetary Policy report before a parliamentary committee.

09-02-2023 12:04 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro gains ground, German CPI inches upwards

The euro has posted strong gains on Thursday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0749, up 0.57%. German CPI ticks higher German inflation came in at 8.7% y/y in January, up from 8.6% in December.

09-02-2023 06:14 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen steady after sharp gains

The Japanese yen has edged lower on Wednesday, after gaining over 1% a day earlier. USD/JPY is trading at 131.25 in the North American session, up 0.15%. Williams delivers Fed pushback The equity markets were bracing for a strong pushback from Jerome Powell, as they have consistently underestimated the Fed's hawkish message.

08-02-2023 13:33 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Stocks lower after Williams does Powell’s pushback job, SOTU, Uber Earnings, , Crypto drops

US stocks declined after Fed member Williams did the pushback that everyone was expecting Fed Chair Powell to do. Williams quickly sank risk appetite after he reminded Wall Street that if financial conditions loosen, higher rates may be needed.

08-02-2023 12:35 GMT by Edward Moya

Oil pares gains, gold softens

Oil Crude prices are higher on optimism the global economic outlook won’t get crushed from over-tightening by central banks. The oil market will likely remain balanced over the short-term, but the risks are clearly to the upside.

08-02-2023 12:29 GMT by Edward Moya

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 429)

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the State of the Union address, Fed Chair Powell's interview with David Rubenstein, and cryptos.

08-02-2023 09:26 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD punches past 1.21, Bailey up next

The British pound is in positive territory on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2107, up 0.47%.

08-02-2023 07:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Oil heads higher, gold gets relief from Powell

China to drive stronger demand China may well be the outlier in all of this as there has been no need for excessive monetary tightening and rather, the slowdown in growth is almost certainly behind it. In fact, the transition from zero-Covid to living with it is reportedly going very smoothly which could boost the economy earlier and by more than expected, leading to higher growth forecasts for 2023. While that could support the global economy through a difficult period, it may also worsen the i

08-02-2023 03:54 GMT by Craig Erlam

Mild relief

European equity markets are expected to open a little higher on Wednesday following a positive shift on Wall Street on Tuesday, while Asia overnight was a very mixed bag. Investors appear a little relieved at Fed Chair Jerome Powell sticking to last week's script despite Friday's jobs report indicating that the labour market remains red hot. It would appear traders had become a little more defensive on the expectation of a hawkish shift but Powell refrained from taking the leap. And credit to hi

08-02-2023 03:51 GMT by Craig Erlam

Stocks go on a Powell Rollercoaster Ride, Fed's Missed Opportunity, Oil rises, Gold volatile, Bitcoin higher

US stocks initially rallied after Fed Chair Powell didn’t take anything back from last week’s dovish FOMC press conference. Powell’s talk with David Rubenstein didn’t reveal anything new, but it will probably go down as a missed opportunity as he could have pushed back on what the market is pricing in.

07-02-2023 14:38 GMT by Edward Moya

A little lost

Equity markets are treading water on Tuesday, as investors take a pause following quite an eventful week. Investors seem a little lost this week, disheartened by the jobs report in particular but also poor tech earnings and a still-hawkish Federal Reserve. The central bank may have softened its tone a little but once you take the economic data into consideration, the case for a couple more 25-basis point hikes is clearly there. That's come as quite a setback following what has been a much more o

07-02-2023 07:37 GMT by Craig Erlam

Oil remains rangebound, gold finds support

Still rangebound Oil prices are bouncing back again today, continuing their better start to the week. The apparent success of China's transition from zero-Covid to living with it owes a lot to the rebound we're seeing as a strong recovery will naturally drive much higher demand and competition. That said, markets have been basically range-bound since early December - albeit in a wide range - and the latest recovery simply takes the price back into the middle of that range.

07-02-2023 07:34 GMT by Craig Erlam

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