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Podcast - China's yuan is not showing much optimism despite positive performances in Chinese equities and RBA looms
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss the current rebound seen in China's stock market and its proxies, Hong Kong's Hang Seng benchmark stock indices triggered by last Friday's positive news flow on indebted Country Garden, a major Chinese property developer that managed to negotiate with its creditors an extension for its onshore bond payments due this week. In addition, key technical levels to watch on the AUD/USD ahead of  RBA's monetary policy meeting. https://
04-09-2023 23:50 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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AUD/USD is under downside pressure below 0.6510 as RBA looms
In the past three weeks, AUD/USD has been trading within a minor range configuration between 0.6510 and 0.6385. Price actions have been dictated primarily from external factors especially economic news flow out from China. Consensus is expecting another third consecutive month of no change in the policy cash rate at 4.1% in today’s RBA monetary policy decision. The medium-term trend of AUD/USD remains bearish below its 50-day moving average now acting as a resistance at 0.6600 and 0.6510 remains
04-09-2023 21:30 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Brent Crude - Oil steady today but momentum remains with the rally
Brent rally cools after another strong week Tight market continues to support price No sign of technical divergence near $90 in Brent Oil prices are a little flat today after rallying another 5% last week. Brent hit a new high for 2023 in the process and, despite paring earlier gains today, there still appears to be plenty of momentum in the rally. That there is still plenty of momentum so close to $90 a barrel may suggest we could see a strong push to break above which would represent a big sh
04-09-2023 12:46 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Canadian dollar falls after soft GDP
Canada's GDP contracts in second quarter US nonfarm payrolls, wages point to weak US labour market The Canadian dollar is unchanged early in Monday's North American session, trading at 1.3594. Canada's GDP unexpectedly soft in Q2 The Canadian dollar posted gains throughout last week but surrendered all of those gains on Friday after second-quarter GDP was softer than expected. Canada's economy contracted in the second quarter by 0.2% y/y, much weaker than the consensus of a 1.2% gain. The Ba
04-09-2023 10:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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EUR/USD - A slow start to the week as Germany continues to display weakness
German trade data another sign of weakness Was the reaction to US jobs data a bearish signal? EURUSD testing key resistance once more Not the most thrilling start to the week, with the US bank holiday naturally bringing with it a more peaceful opening session but markets in Europe have started fairly well. Perhaps there's some carryover from last week - I'm still surprised at the lack of movement from the jobs report - or the prospect of a stimulus-induced boost to China's economy. Or maybe the
04-09-2023 10:02 GMT by Craig Erlam
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RBA expected to pause, US nonfarm payrolls rises slightly
RBA expected to pause US nonfarm payrolls rise slightly to 187,000 The Australian dollar has started the week with slight gains. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6464, up 0.21%. RBA expected to pause The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates at 4.10% when it meets on Tuesday and a rate hike would be a huge surprise.
04-09-2023 05:25 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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WTI Oil Technical: Risk of countertrend setback after rallying a year-to-date high
Erased prior two weeks of consecutive losing streaks to trade a current year-to-date closing high of US$86.31 per barrel printed on last Friday, 1 September. Price actions are oscillating within short-term and medium-term uptrend phases. Hourly technical indicators (RSI & Bollinger Bands Bandwidth) are suggesting the risk of an imminent minor pull-back in price actions after last week’s strong upside reversal. Watch the key short-term pivotal resistance at US$87.25 per barrel. This is a follow-
03-09-2023 22:27 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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EUR/USD - The Fed could not have hoped for a better week of US jobs data
NFP 187,000 in August (169,000 expected, 157,000 previously) Average hourly earnings 0.2% (MoM), 4.3% (YoY)  EURUSD slips after making earlier gains If you're a Federal Reserve official, you'll find it hard not to be very pleased with the way this week's gone from a labor market data perspective. The JOLTS release at the start of the week was extremely encouraging as it continued a clear trend that brought the number of vacancies back to levels not seen in two years and not far from the pre-pan
01-09-2023 11:05 GMT by Craig Erlam
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EUR/USD steady after Mfg. PMIs, US NFP looms
The euro is flat on Friday, after sustaining sharp losses a day earlier. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0844. Eurozone, German manufacturing struggling There wasn't much to cheer about after today's Manufacturing PMI reports for Germany and the eurozone.
01-09-2023 07:52 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Canadian dollar eyes GDP, US jobs data
Canada's GDP expected to ease in Q2 US nonfarm employment payrolls expected to dip to 177,000 The Canadian dollar is calm in the European session, trading at 1.3500, down 0.07%. I expect to see stronger movement from USD/CAD in the North American session, as Canada releases second-quarter GDP and the US publishes the July employment report. Canada's GDP expected to slow in Q2 Canada usually releases employment reports on the same day as the US, but Canada's July jobs report won't be released
01-09-2023 05:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Brent Crude - Oil edges cautiously higher after mixed Chinese PMIs
Strong run continues Chinese data doesn't hinder the rally Momentum may be key as price approaches August highs Oil prices are nudging higher again today, technically on course for a fifth day of gains in six in Brent - six in a row in WTI - although broadly speaking they're just a little above the middle of what appears to be a newly established range. Brent peaked near $88 a few weeks ago and bottomed around $82 last week as we await more direction on the economy and therefore demand. Data th
31-08-2023 12:29 GMT by Craig Erlam
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USD/CHF rises as Swiss retail sales fall, Swiss CPI next
Swiss retail sales decline by 2.3% Swiss inflation expected to dip to 1.5% US unemployment claims drop to 228,000 US PCE Price Index rises by 3.3% The Swiss franc has lost ground on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8835, up 0.59%. Thursday's Swiss retail sales for July looked awful, falling 2.3% m/m.
31-08-2023 10:16 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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EUR/GBP - Eurozone core inflation falls further, weighing on yields and the euro
Flash HICP in August 5.3% (5.1% expected, 5.3% in July) Flash core HICP in August 5.3% (5.3% expected, 5.5% in July) Key moving average provides resistance once again Eurozone economic indicators this morning have been something of a mixed bag, although traders seem enthused on the back of them rather than disappointed. We've seen regional data over the last couple of days which gave us some indication of how today's HICP report would look and a drop in the core reading in line with expectation
31-08-2023 08:34 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Eurozone core inflation falls, drags euro lower
The euro is lower on Thursday, after a 3-day rally which pushed the currency 1% higher. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0861, down 0.57%. Eurozone CPI steady, core CPI falls Eurozone inflation was a mixed bag in August.
31-08-2023 07:54 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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CHF/JPY Technical: Relentless uptrend movement
Bullish acceleration within long-term secular uptrend to print a fresh all-time high of 166.60 yesterday, 30 August. Current minor pull-back of 102 pips from 166.60 all-time high has almost reached a short-term oversold condition as indicated by the hourly RSI. Key short-term support rests at 165.10. The cross-pair CHF/JPY has continued its impulsive up-move sequence in the month of August where it rallied by +291 pips as of 31 August 2023 at this time of the writing, capping off a relentless b
31-08-2023 04:56 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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