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USD/CAD rises to 22-week high, BoC decision looms
Bank of Canada expected to hold rates at 5.0% US to release ISM Services PMI USD/CAD is trading quietly in Europe at 1.3651, up 0.06%. I expect to see stronger movement in the North American session, with the Bank of Canada making its rate announcement and the US releasing the ISM Services PMI which is expected to show little change. Bank of Canada widely expected to hold rates The Bank of Canada is virtually certain to hold rates at today's meeting, with just a 6% probability of a rate hike,
06-09-2023 06:30 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Australian dollar steadies after solid GDP
Australian GDP unchanged at 0.4% RBA holds rates at 4.10% The Australian dollar has edged higher on Wednesday, after sustaining sharp losses a day earlier. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6391, up 0.19%. Australia's GDP holds steady in Q2 The Australian economy grew by 0.4% q/q in the second quarter, unchanged from the upwardly revised reading in the first quarter and matching the consensus.
06-09-2023 04:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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USD/JPY Technical: Aroused FX verbal intervention, watch 147.90 and 147.20 intraday
USD/JPY has risen the most among the majors in the past month. The current swift up move of USD/JPY has prompted FX verbal intervention today from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. The current tonality of verbal intervention is the strongest since mid-August 2023 that occurred when the current upward trajectory of USD/JPY is fast approaching a key medium-term resistance zone of 148.40/148.85. Short-term upside momentum has started to wane. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “USD/JPY
06-09-2023 01:48 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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USD/CAD eyes key resistance at 1.3700, pares losses on OPEC driven oil price surge
Loonie pares losses alongside oil price surge Oil rises on OPEC+ action, but may remain a choppy trade on global growth concerns and rising Non-OPEC production $100 oil risk will remain on table throughout the winter USD/CAD Daily Chart After having its worst slide in a month, the Canadian dollar continues to weaken as investors digest the surprise Canadian contraction in the second quarter.   BOC rate hike bets are fading away but an outperformance with European currencies could limit the dow
05-09-2023 11:48 GMT by Edward Moya
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GBP/USD Breaks Down Amid Global Risk-Aversion
EU and China Service PMIs drive global growth concerns UK Final Services PMI revised higher but downward trend remains Fed's Waller (hawk) says "There is nothing that is saying we need to do anything imminent anytime soon." GBP/USD (daily chart) as of Tuesday (9/5/2023) has made a quick and strong breakdown below multiple support levels, indicating a potential bearish breakdown could target the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which resides at 1.2072.  A bearish near-term outlook has been in place over t
05-09-2023 09:46 GMT by Edward Moya
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EUR/USD falls to 3-month low on soft Services PMIs
EUR/USD declines to two-month low Eurozone, Germany Services PMIs indicate contraction Eurozone inflation expectations steady at 3.4% The euro is back to its losing ways on Tuesday, after holding steady a day earlier. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0745, down 0.48%.
05-09-2023 09:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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AUD/USD - Back in decline as the Reserve Bank of Australia remains on hold
RBA leaves the cash rate at 4.1% but signals more tightening may be needed China Caixin services PMI unexpectedly falls to 51.8 AUDUSD tumbles again to test recent support The Australian dollar fell further this morning despite the RBA holding interest rates steady and warning that further tightening may be necessary. The central bank warned that while inflation is declining, a strong labor market and economy remain a risk. What's more, persistent services price inflation which is being seen in
05-09-2023 09:26 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Australian dollar sinks after RBA pause, GDP next
RBA holds rates for third straight time AUD/USD slides 1.3% Australian GDP expected to slow in second quarter The Australian dollar has plunged on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia held rates at today's policy meeting. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6373, down 1.36%. RBA holds rates, as expected The RBA held interest rates at today's meeting for a third straight time, maintaining the official cash rate at 4.10%.  This was the final meeting chaired by Governor Phili
05-09-2023 04:59 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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Podcast - China's yuan is not showing much optimism despite positive performances in Chinese equities and RBA looms
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss the current rebound seen in China's stock market and its proxies, Hong Kong's Hang Seng benchmark stock indices triggered by last Friday's positive news flow on indebted Country Garden, a major Chinese property developer that managed to negotiate with its creditors an extension for its onshore bond payments due this week. In addition, key technical levels to watch on the AUD/USD ahead of  RBA's monetary policy meeting. https://
04-09-2023 23:50 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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AUD/USD is under downside pressure below 0.6510 as RBA looms
In the past three weeks, AUD/USD has been trading within a minor range configuration between 0.6510 and 0.6385. Price actions have been dictated primarily from external factors especially economic news flow out from China. Consensus is expecting another third consecutive month of no change in the policy cash rate at 4.1% in today’s RBA monetary policy decision. The medium-term trend of AUD/USD remains bearish below its 50-day moving average now acting as a resistance at 0.6600 and 0.6510 remains
04-09-2023 21:30 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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Brent Crude - Oil steady today but momentum remains with the rally
Brent rally cools after another strong week Tight market continues to support price No sign of technical divergence near $90 in Brent Oil prices are a little flat today after rallying another 5% last week. Brent hit a new high for 2023 in the process and, despite paring earlier gains today, there still appears to be plenty of momentum in the rally. That there is still plenty of momentum so close to $90 a barrel may suggest we could see a strong push to break above which would represent a big sh
04-09-2023 12:46 GMT by Craig Erlam
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Canadian dollar falls after soft GDP
Canada's GDP contracts in second quarter US nonfarm payrolls, wages point to weak US labour market The Canadian dollar is unchanged early in Monday's North American session, trading at 1.3594. Canada's GDP unexpectedly soft in Q2 The Canadian dollar posted gains throughout last week but surrendered all of those gains on Friday after second-quarter GDP was softer than expected. Canada's economy contracted in the second quarter by 0.2% y/y, much weaker than the consensus of a 1.2% gain. The Ba
04-09-2023 10:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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EUR/USD - A slow start to the week as Germany continues to display weakness
German trade data another sign of weakness Was the reaction to US jobs data a bearish signal? EURUSD testing key resistance once more Not the most thrilling start to the week, with the US bank holiday naturally bringing with it a more peaceful opening session but markets in Europe have started fairly well. Perhaps there's some carryover from last week - I'm still surprised at the lack of movement from the jobs report - or the prospect of a stimulus-induced boost to China's economy. Or maybe the
04-09-2023 10:02 GMT by Craig Erlam
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RBA expected to pause, US nonfarm payrolls rises slightly
RBA expected to pause US nonfarm payrolls rise slightly to 187,000 The Australian dollar has started the week with slight gains. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6464, up 0.21%. RBA expected to pause The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates at 4.10% when it meets on Tuesday and a rate hike would be a huge surprise.
04-09-2023 05:25 GMT by Kenneth Fisher
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WTI Oil Technical: Risk of countertrend setback after rallying a year-to-date high
Erased prior two weeks of consecutive losing streaks to trade a current year-to-date closing high of US$86.31 per barrel printed on last Friday, 1 September. Price actions are oscillating within short-term and medium-term uptrend phases. Hourly technical indicators (RSI & Bollinger Bands Bandwidth) are suggesting the risk of an imminent minor pull-back in price actions after last week’s strong upside reversal. Watch the key short-term pivotal resistance at US$87.25 per barrel. This is a follow-
03-09-2023 22:27 GMT by Kelvin Wong
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