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EUR/USD: Shrugs off hawkish ECB speak; dollar firms after impressive ISM services report

US ISM Services Index unexpectedly surges to a six-month high, boosted on robust new orders and strong hiring ECB's Kazimir prefers a September rate to later and Knot thinks markets underestimating September rate hike chance Euro looks vulnerable to lose all of 2023 gains The dollar’s rise is starting to unnerve everyone. Last night, both Japanese and Chinese officials attempted to thwart the greenback's rally, but weren’t effective.

06-09-2023 11:21 GMT by Edward Moya

Euro steady higher despite soft German, eurozone data, US Services PMI next

German factory orders slide by 11.7% Eurozone retail sales decline by 0.2% EUR/USD inches higher The euro has steadied on Wednesday, following sharp losses a day earlier. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0731, up 0.09%. The euro can't seem to find its footing and has fallen about 200 basis points since August 31st.

06-09-2023 09:12 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/CAD rises to 22-week high, BoC decision looms

Bank of Canada expected to hold rates at 5.0% US to release ISM Services PMI USD/CAD is trading quietly in Europe at 1.3651, up 0.06%. I expect to see stronger movement in the North American session, with the Bank of Canada making its rate announcement and the US releasing the ISM Services PMI which is expected to show little change. Bank of Canada widely expected to hold rates The Bank of Canada is virtually certain to hold rates at today's meeting, with just a 6% probability of a rate hike,

06-09-2023 06:30 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar steadies after solid GDP

Australian GDP unchanged at 0.4% RBA holds rates at 4.10% The Australian dollar has edged higher on Wednesday, after sustaining sharp losses a day earlier. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6391, up 0.19%. Australia's GDP holds steady in Q2 The Australian economy grew by 0.4% q/q in the second quarter, unchanged from the upwardly revised reading in the first quarter and matching the consensus.

06-09-2023 04:55 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY Technical: Aroused FX verbal intervention, watch 147.90 and 147.20 intraday

USD/JPY has risen the most among the majors in the past month. The current swift up move of USD/JPY has prompted FX verbal intervention today from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. The current tonality of verbal intervention is the strongest since mid-August 2023 that occurred when the current upward trajectory of USD/JPY is fast approaching a key medium-term resistance zone of 148.40/148.85. Short-term upside momentum has started to wane. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “USD/JPY

06-09-2023 01:48 GMT by Kelvin Wong

USD/CAD eyes key resistance at 1.3700, pares losses on OPEC driven oil price surge

Loonie pares losses alongside oil price surge Oil rises on OPEC+ action, but may remain a choppy trade on global growth concerns and rising Non-OPEC production $100 oil risk will remain on table throughout the winter USD/CAD Daily Chart After having its worst slide in a month, the Canadian dollar continues to weaken as investors digest the surprise Canadian contraction in the second quarter. BOC rate hike bets are fading away but an outperformance with European currencies could limit the dow

05-09-2023 11:48 GMT by Edward Moya

FTSE 100 - Chinese services PMI slips amid an ongoing sluggish recovery

China Caixin services PMI slips to 51.8 UK100 erases earlier losses Potential breakout confirmation could be a bullish signal

05-09-2023 09:58 GMT by Craig Erlam

GBP/USD Breaks Down Amid Global Risk-Aversion

EU and China Service PMIs drive global growth concerns UK Final Services PMI revised higher but downward trend remains Fed's Waller (hawk) says "There is nothing that is saying we need to do anything imminent anytime soon." GBP/USD (daily chart) as of Tuesday (9/5/2023) has made a quick and strong breakdown below multiple support levels, indicating a potential bearish breakdown could target the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which resides at 1.2072. A bearish near-term outlook has been in place over t

05-09-2023 09:46 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD falls to 3-month low on soft Services PMIs

EUR/USD declines to two-month low Eurozone, Germany Services PMIs indicate contraction Eurozone inflation expectations steady at 3.4% The euro is back to its losing ways on Tuesday, after holding steady a day earlier. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0745, down 0.48%.

05-09-2023 09:42 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD - Back in decline as the Reserve Bank of Australia remains on hold

RBA leaves the cash rate at 4.1% but signals more tightening may be needed China Caixin services PMI unexpectedly falls to 51.8 AUDUSD tumbles again to test recent support The Australian dollar fell further this morning despite the RBA holding interest rates steady and warning that further tightening may be necessary. The central bank warned that while inflation is declining, a strong labor market and economy remain a risk. What's more, persistent services price inflation which is being seen in

05-09-2023 09:26 GMT by Craig Erlam

Swiss franc hits two-month low after weak GDP

Swiss GDP stagnates in Q2 Manufacturing, exports decline The Swiss franc is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8884, up 0.44%.

05-09-2023 06:41 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Australian dollar sinks after RBA pause, GDP next

RBA holds rates for third straight time AUD/USD slides 1.3% Australian GDP expected to slow in second quarter The Australian dollar has plunged on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia held rates at today's policy meeting. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6373, down 1.36%. RBA holds rates, as expected The RBA held interest rates at today's meeting for a third straight time, maintaining the official cash rate at 4.10%. This was the final meeting chaired by Governor Phili

05-09-2023 04:59 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

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Podcast - China's yuan is not showing much optimism despite positive performances in Chinese equities and RBA looms

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss the current rebound seen in China's stock market and its proxies, Hong Kong's Hang Seng benchmark stock indices triggered by last Friday's positive news flow on indebted Country Garden, a major Chinese property developer that managed to negotiate with its creditors an extension for its onshore bond payments due this week. In addition, key technical levels to watch on the AUD/USD ahead of RBA's monetary policy meeting. https://

04-09-2023 23:50 GMT by Kelvin Wong

AUD/USD is under downside pressure below 0.6510 as RBA looms

In the past three weeks, AUD/USD has been trading within a minor range configuration between 0.6510 and 0.6385. Price actions have been dictated primarily from external factors especially economic news flow out from China. Consensus is expecting another third consecutive month of no change in the policy cash rate at 4.1% in today’s RBA monetary policy decision. The medium-term trend of AUD/USD remains bearish below its 50-day moving average now acting as a resistance at 0.6600 and 0.6510 remains

04-09-2023 21:30 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Euro steady ahead of Service PMIs

The euro has started the week with gains, after falling around 1.3% over the past two days. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0795, up o.19%.

04-09-2023 12:52 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Brent Crude - Oil steady today but momentum remains with the rally

Brent rally cools after another strong week Tight market continues to support price No sign of technical divergence near $90 in Brent Oil prices are a little flat today after rallying another 5% last week. Brent hit a new high for 2023 in the process and, despite paring earlier gains today, there still appears to be plenty of momentum in the rally. That there is still plenty of momentum so close to $90 a barrel may suggest we could see a strong push to break above which would represent a big sh

04-09-2023 12:46 GMT by Craig Erlam

Canadian dollar falls after soft GDP

Canada's GDP contracts in second quarter US nonfarm payrolls, wages point to weak US labour market The Canadian dollar is unchanged early in Monday's North American session, trading at 1.3594. Canada's GDP unexpectedly soft in Q2 The Canadian dollar posted gains throughout last week but surrendered all of those gains on Friday after second-quarter GDP was softer than expected. Canada's economy contracted in the second quarter by 0.2% y/y, much weaker than the consensus of a 1.2% gain. The Ba

04-09-2023 10:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

EUR/USD - A slow start to the week as Germany continues to display weakness

German trade data another sign of weakness Was the reaction to US jobs data a bearish signal? EURUSD testing key resistance once more Not the most thrilling start to the week, with the US bank holiday naturally bringing with it a more peaceful opening session but markets in Europe have started fairly well. Perhaps there's some carryover from last week - I'm still surprised at the lack of movement from the jobs report - or the prospect of a stimulus-induced boost to China's economy. Or maybe the

04-09-2023 10:02 GMT by Craig Erlam

RBA expected to pause, US nonfarm payrolls rises slightly

RBA expected to pause US nonfarm payrolls rise slightly to 187,000 The Australian dollar has started the week with slight gains. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6464, up 0.21%. RBA expected to pause The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates at 4.10% when it meets on Tuesday and a rate hike would be a huge surprise.

04-09-2023 05:25 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

WTI Oil Technical: Risk of countertrend setback after rallying a year-to-date high

Erased prior two weeks of consecutive losing streaks to trade a current year-to-date closing high of US$86.31 per barrel printed on last Friday, 1 September. Price actions are oscillating within short-term and medium-term uptrend phases. Hourly technical indicators (RSI & Bollinger Bands Bandwidth) are suggesting the risk of an imminent minor pull-back in price actions after last week’s strong upside reversal. Watch the key short-term pivotal resistance at US$87.25 per barrel. This is a follow-

03-09-2023 22:27 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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