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USD/JPY breaks above 146, Tokyo Core CPI dips to 2.8%
Tokyo Core CPI gains 2.8%, less than expected Powell and Ueda to speak at Jackson Hole symposium USD/JPY has posted small gains on Friday, enough to push above the symbolic 146 line. On the data calendar, Tokyo Core CPI dipped lower and Fed Chair Powell addresses the Jackson Hole Symposium later today. Tokyo Core CPI eases to 2.8% Japan released the Tokyo Core CPI earlier today.
by Kenneth Fisher
Euro falls below 1.08, German business confidence next
Euro falls below 1.08 for first time since June Fed's Harker says interest rates may have peaked The euro has extended its losses for a second straight day. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0785, down 0.23% and falling below the 1.08 line for the first time since June.
by Kenneth Fisher
Nasdaq 100 Technical: Bearish momentum reasserts
Bearish elements have emerged at a key inflection/resistance level of 15,415. The leader of the AI boom, Nvidia has shaped a bullish exhaustion where its initial price actions’ exuberance dissipated ex-post Q2 earnings result release. 15,135 key short-term resistance to watch on the Nasdaq 100 to maintain bearish bias. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior reports, “Nasdaq 100 Technical: Minor countertrend rebound” and “D-day for the US stock market as Nvidia earnings loom” published on 15
by Kelvin Wong
EUR/SEK: Riksbank eyes a major krona reversal
Governor Thedeen say krona is fundamentally undervalued Markets fulling pricing in September Riksbank quarter-point rate hike Sweden's government expects economy shrink by -0.8% in 2023 (previously eyed -0.4%) Sweden’s krona has been punished as the economy appears to be headed for a tough recession. Core inflation is coming down too slowly and that will keep the Riksbank hiking even as expectations grow for a lengthy recession.  The krona has not been getting any relief as many Swedes have sta
by Edward Moya
Australian dollar continues sharp swings
Australian dollar slides close to 1% The Australian dollar continues to show strong volatility for a second straight day. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6426, down 0.84%. After a sleepy start to the week, the Aussie is showing some life.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY: Dollar pares gains after Harker says Fed’s done enough with rates
Atlanta Fed's GDP estimate sees real Q3 GDP growth of 5.9%, up from last week's 5.8% Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole Speech is scheduled for tomorrow at 10:05 am EST Fed's Harker (voter) says they've done enough with rates while Fed's Collins (non-voter) more rate hikes may be needed As Wall Street awaits Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, some traders shifted their focus to Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker’s CNBC interview. When talking about interest Harker said, “Righ
by Edward Moya
GBP/USD - Slips for a third day amid cracks in UK economic data
UK yields fall amid economic uncertainty BoE expected to raise rates twice more this year to 5.75% Cable testing key support for a second day The pound is on the decline again on Thursday, having fallen over the last couple of days on the back of some worrying economic figures from the UK. Whether we're talking about a blip in the data or cracks finally appearing in the economy after a very aggressive tightening cycle from the Bank of England, traders are paring back expectations for interest
by Craig Erlam
Japan yen's mini-rally fizzles, Tokyo Core CPI next
Tokyo Core CPI expected to tick lower to 2.9% US to release jobless claims and durable goods orders later on Thursday USD/JPY put together a mid-week rally with gains of 1% but is considerably lower on Thursday.  In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 145.72, up 0.60%. Markets eye Tokyo Core CPI Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI on Friday, the third inflation report in just over a week. The previous two releases were for July, but Tokyo Core CPI is the first indicator of August inflation,
by Kenneth Fisher
EUR/USD dips ahead of US jobless claims, durable goods orders
Euro yawns after weak German and eurozone PMIs US to release unemployment claims and durable goods orders on Thursday The euro has edged lower on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0851, down 0.11%. On the data calendar, there are no releases from the eurozone.
by Kenneth Fisher
USD/JPY: Dollar stays near lows after mixed 20-year auction
Earnings and soft services PMIs sends yields and dollar lower Fed rate hike odds for September 20th meeting stand at 11% (down from yesterday's 16%) Russian mercenary leader Prigozhin may have died in plane crash The US dollar remained near session lows against the Japanese yen after the Treasury's mixed 20-year auction.  The bond market rally that started yesterday is holding up after decent demand saw a 4.499% yield, which was higher than the pre-sale yield of 4.490%, and obviously above the
by Edward Moya
GBP/USD pares losses after soft PMIs
UK manufacturing and services PMIs decelerate The British pound has edged lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2720, down 0.09%. UK PMIs head lower The UK economy continues to cool down, and today's PMI readings showed deceleration in both the manufacturing and services sectors.
by Kenneth Fisher
EUR/JPY: Pullback emerges following horrible EZ PMI data
Eurozone August Services PMI fell into contraction territory; dropping from 50.9 to 48.3 Treasuries extend gains after global PMIs disappoint; double digit declines across global 10-year bonds Yen rallies to a 1-week high against the dollar EUR/JPY (a daily char of which is show) as of Wednesday (8/23/2023) displays a noticeable pullback after the euro area's service sector contraction worsened. The 20-nation bloc saw the service sector unexpectedly fell into contraction territory.
by Edward Moya
EUR/USD - ECB may be convinced to hold in September after latest data
Eurozone Services PMI falls to 48.3 in August (50.5 expected, 50.9 in July) Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rises to 43.7 in August (42.6 expected, 42.7 in July) Euro testing key support against the US dollar The data from the eurozone was no more promising, particularly Germany - the bloc's largest economy - which has had a harder year than most and looks likely to continue to do so going into next year. There was a slight and unexpected improvement in the manufacturing number.
by Craig Erlam
GBP/USD - BoE rate expectations pared back as PMIs point to recession
UK Services PMI falls to 48.7 (50.8 expected, 51.5 in July) UK Manufacturing PMI falls to 42.5 (45 expected, 45.3 in July) Cable tests support but rebounds for the third time The UK services and manufacturing PMI surveys fell well short of forecasts this morning, the former deep into contraction territory. What's more, the weakness was widespread from new orders to hiring and prices paid, which suggests we're not just talking about a blip in the data, but rather the prospect of a recessio
by Craig Erlam
D-day for the US stock market as Nvidia earnings loom
The share price performance of Nvidia has been the main driver of Nasdaq 100 outperformance/premium against the rest of the world stock indices ex-US. Lofty expectations have been priced in for Nvidia ahead of its Q2 earnings release today. Several bearish technical elements have emerged in the share price of Nvidia.
by Kelvin Wong
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