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Gold Technical: Bears are stalling again at the 200-day moving average ahead of US CPI and ECB

Last Friday’s price actions of spot Gold (XAU/USD) have managed to find support again at the 200-day moving average ahead of the US CPI data release & ECB monetary policy decision this week. The recent -5.15 % decline seen in Gold from its 20 July 2023 swing high of US$$1,987.53 has started to see some signs of short-term bullish reversal elements since 21 August 2023. The up-trending 10-year US Treasury real yield has also started to consolidate between 1.95% to 2.00% level.

10-09-2023 23:55 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Podcast - Bad week for stocks, good week for oil

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss Wall Street's losing week, a robust Canadian jobs report, and oil's bullish trend. Next week's US inflation data and retail sales report will be key for the Fed's November rate hike expectations.

08-09-2023 14:25 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/CHF: Dollar rally awaits next week’s CPI and retail sales data

Fed expected to keep rates on hold on September 20th 10-year Treasury yield eases back to 4.248% as 4.36% remains key resistance US retail sales are expected to weaken and the US inflation report will be mixed (core steady, headline rises) The US dollar rally may have to wait till next week’s inflation and retail sales data. The dollar is slightly softer across the board as Treasury yields soften.

08-09-2023 12:06 GMT by Edward Moya

GBP/USD - A Bank of England pause may not be as far away as thought

BoE hints at balanced debate at the next meeting Employment survey points to further weakness GBPUSD nearing major support zone A big couple of weeks are in store for the Bank of England and figures today may support the case for a more balanced debate on 21st September, as policymakers hinted this week. Inflation is by no means under control but it is falling fast and, if the BoE is to be believed, it is expected to fall markedly over the remainder of the year.

08-09-2023 12:00 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD: A hot Canadian employment/wage report sends the loonie higher

BOC rate hike odds for the October 25th meeting rise from yesterday's 23.9% to 28.8% Hours worked climbed to the highest level since February CAD futures open interest rise to best levels since mid-March Canada’s economy isn’t quite ready to cool. The latest Canadian employment report showed hiring bounced back in August, doubling expectations. The near 40,000 added jobs exceeded the 17,500 consensus estimate and proved that the prior month’s unexpected shedding of jobs was not the beginning

08-09-2023 10:42 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - US inflation key, ECB ponders rate pause, UK labor market data

This week is all about the US CPI report and retail sales data. If the US demand for goods didn’t weaken that much and if inflation heated up, rate hike expectations for the November meeting might become the consensus. The inflation report might not be as clear as headline inflation will obviously rise given the surge in gasoline prices, but core might deliver another subdued reading.

08-09-2023 09:57 GMT by Craig Erlam

Euro edges higher, German CPI unchanged

German inflation dips to 6.1% The data calendar is light on Friday and EUR/USD is trading at 1.0707 in Europe, up 0.09%. There are no tier-1 events out of the eurozone or the US, which means we can expect subdued movement from the euro for the remainder of the day. The euro is poised to record a losing week for an eighth straight time.

08-09-2023 08:59 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

USD/JPY headed for a losing week

USD/JPY has edged higher, trading at 147.46 in Europe, up 0.11%. On Thursday, USD/JPY rose as high as 147.87, close to the symbolic 148 line which has held since October 2022. Investors continue to focus on Japanese inflation releases, which indicate that inflation is above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%.

08-09-2023 07:46 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Canadian dollar steady ahead of jobs report

Canada expected to have shed 6,400 jobs BoC's Macklem says rate increases may be needed to lower inflation The Canadian dollar is steady on Friday in what should be a busy day. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3670, down 0.12%.

08-09-2023 05:34 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD extends losses after weak housing data

British pound falls to 3-month low against US dollar UK house prices fall sharply BoE's Bailey is non-committal about September rate decision The British pound has extended its losses on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2472, down 0.28%.

07-09-2023 12:57 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD: Pound slide extends to the 200-day SMA

UK home prices plunge 4.6% in the year up to August, worst y/y drop since 2009 UK businesses expected to deliver smallest price rise since February 2022 GBP underperforms as BOE rate hike expectations shrink; implied rate peak at 5.699% vs 5.671% on Sept 1st GBP/USD (a daily chart of which is show) has steadily weakened this month, now falling below the 1.25000 level. This occurs within the context of a strong accelerated downtrend extending originally from the 1.3140 area highs in July. The

07-09-2023 12:36 GMT by Edward Moya

USD/JPY: Yen firms up as risk aversion flows grow on rate fears and rising US-China tensions

US weekly jobless claims drop to lowest levels since February Apple shares slide as China's crackdown on iPhone use grows; Losing over $200 billion in market value BOJ's Nakagawa reiterates stance that BOJ and gov't are monitoring FX rates and impact on economy The US dollar index hit its highest level since March as risk aversion runs wild on higher interest rate fears and as global growth concerns spread to the US. The dollar is poised to have an eight straight week of gains, but that is som

07-09-2023 11:36 GMT by Edward Moya

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Video - GBP/USD slides after Bank of England comments and US data

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the latest comments from the BoE, the US ISM services PMI and gives his analysis of the GBPUSD chart.

07-09-2023 10:00 GMT by Craig Erlam

BoC hold rates, Canadian dollar hits 5-month low

Bank of Canada holds rates at 5.0% US ISM Services PMI hits 6-month high The Canadian dollar has edged lower on Thursday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3662, up 0.20%. Bank of Canada holds rates at 5.0% The future markets had priced in a hold from the Bank of Canada at a massive 94%, and there were no surprises as the central bank maintained the benchmark cash rate at 5.0%, after back-to-back increases.

07-09-2023 09:24 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Japanese yen takes aim at 148

The Japanese yen is slightly higher on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.39, down 0.19%. The yen can't seem to find its footing and has dropped close to 1% this week.

07-09-2023 07:31 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Nikkei 225 Technical: Bullish breakout from 2-month descending range

The Japanese Nikkei 225 has outperformed the rest of the world for the dreaded month of August where most global benchmark stock indices recorded their worst losses in three months. Since its 18 August 2023 low, it has recorded a gain of 6.1% as of yesterday, 6 September. 33,000 is the key short-term support to watch. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nikkei 225 Technical: Overstretched decline, potential rebound looms” published on 18 August 2023. Click here for a recap. The

07-09-2023 01:55 GMT by Kelvin Wong

GBP/USD - Sinks to three-month low after BoE monetary policy report hearing

Dovish BoE commentary weighs on the pound Two more rate hikes are still heavily priced in Major support below around the 200/233-day SMA band The monetary policy report hearing can often be a much-hyped but ultimately anti-climactic event, with policymakers sticking to the script whenever possible and the Treasury Select Committee frequently blurring the lines between politics and central banking. While that was probably largely true today, it was interesting that Governor Bailey and his

06-09-2023 17:40 GMT by Craig Erlam

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Podcast - BoE nearly done, BoC and RBA pause, Saudi and Russia extend cuts

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart to discuss the Bank of England Monetary Policy Report Hearing, the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decisions, and the Saudi Arabia and Russia oil cut extensions.

06-09-2023 16:16 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD rally resumes as BOC seen holding rates and amid US economic resilience

Bank of Canada keeps rates on hold(as expected), continues quantitative tightening Fed rate hike odds for the November meeting rise from yesterday’s 39.3% to 49.5% BOC rate hike odds for October 25th seen at 31.1%, with December 6th having a 18.9% chance USD/CAD (daily chart) as of Wednesday (9/6/23) has continued its significant bullishness from last week by surging above key resistance that has been in place since the spring. The simultaneous release of the BOC decision and US ISM services

06-09-2023 12:43 GMT by Edward Moya

EUR/USD: Shrugs off hawkish ECB speak; dollar firms after impressive ISM services report

US ISM Services Index unexpectedly surges to a six-month high, boosted on robust new orders and strong hiring ECB's Kazimir prefers a September rate to later and Knot thinks markets underestimating September rate hike chance Euro looks vulnerable to lose all of 2023 gains The dollar’s rise is starting to unnerve everyone. Last night, both Japanese and Chinese officials attempted to thwart the greenback's rally, but weren’t effective.

06-09-2023 11:21 GMT by Edward Moya

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